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  1. #1

    New Paolo Article 538

    Watching Paolo conjures up Big Dog Robinson a bit for me. Discuss amongst yourselves this new article looking at his shot profile from the good people at 538:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-shot-profile/
    Last edited by -jk; 12-06-2021 at 08:14 PM. Reason: link

  2. #2
    All I know is that Cherokee destroyed Robinson to get to the Finals. Paolo seems like he's got a much better handle, quicker, and with a much more sophisticated turnaround jumper. Robinson was a solid pro and leading college player at a time when their wasn't as much talent in the NCAA compared to when Duke, Michigan and UNC were dominating college.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by AZLA View Post
    All I know is that Cherokee destroyed Robinson to get to the Finals. Paolo seems like he's got a much better handle, quicker, and with a much more sophisticated turnaround jumper. Robinson was a solid pro and leading college player at a time when *there* wasn't as much talent in the NCAA compared to when Duke, Michigan and UNC were dominating college.
    I mean, he played vs Duke in 1994, which some might say was exactly when Duke was dominating college basketball. It was the same year Duke played in the Finals for the 4th time in 5 years and concluded a pretty amazing stretch of Final 4 appearances.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Interesting

    It's an interesting article. It seems to me that Paolo is taking the least efficient shots possible, two-point jump shots. I think he's been very efficient at the shots, but it does make me wonder whether he's being used as efficiently as he could be. What would be wrong with posting him up in the low block, for example?

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    It's an interesting article. It seems to me that Paolo is taking the least efficient shots possible, two-point jump shots. I think he's been very efficient at the shots, but it does make me wonder whether he's being used as efficiently as he could be. What would be wrong with posting him up in the low block, for example?
    well, if either Mark Williams or Theo John are also on the floor, then Paolo would probably find it very difficult to maneuver in the low block since neither of them really pulls defenders out. With Paolo at the 5 then your example becomes a lot more enticing, however, Duke has not shown that it can put 4 competent 3-pt shooters around Paolo playing small-ball, so he might also not find enough operating room in the low-block. It also kinda depends on who is guarding him, although he has shown the ability to get around larger, slower players or over shorter players. However, he has also, on occasion, shown poor or questionable shot selection.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Low Post

    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    well, if either Mark Williams or Theo John are also on the floor, then Paolo would probably find it very difficult to maneuver in the low block since neither of them really pulls defenders out. With Paolo at the 5 then your example becomes a lot more enticing, however, Duke has not shown that it can put 4 competent 3-pt shooters around Paolo playing small-ball, so he might also not find enough operating room in the low-block. It also kinda depends on who is guarding him, although he has shown the ability to get around larger, slower players or over shorter players. However, he has also, on occasion, shown poor or questionable shot selection.
    What if the other low post player is on the other side of the lane? If his man doubles, Paolo should be able to pass it to him, especially if it is Mark (with a lob).

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
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    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    well, if either Mark Williams or Theo John are also on the floor, then Paolo would probably find it very difficult to maneuver in the low block since neither of them really pulls defenders out. With Paolo at the 5 then your example becomes a lot more enticing, however, Duke has not shown that it can put 4 competent 3-pt shooters around Paolo playing small-ball, so he might also not find enough operating room in the low-block. It also kinda depends on who is guarding him, although he has shown the ability to get around larger, slower players or over shorter players. However, he has also, on occasion, shown poor or questionable shot selection.
    I agree about the floor spacing and the small-ball 5 points. I'd also add that those midrange shots he's taking are more often than not the product of him making an NBA-level play. He's usually not settling for midrange opportunities, he's creating them with intentionality. That part of his game reminds me a lot of Tatum at Duke, actually.

  8. #8
    I'd like to see Paolo take less from the midrange and up his shots at the rim. It's nice that he has that shot in his toolbox but it still is an inefficient shot.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    It's an interesting article. It seems to me that Paolo is taking the least efficient shots possible, two-point jump shots. I think he's been very efficient at the shots, but it does make me wonder whether he's being used as efficiently as he could be. What would be wrong with posting him up in the low block, for example?
    We know that mid-range jumpers are statistically the least efficient shots in basketball. But we also know there are certain people who could just make a ton of mid-range jumpers. Just not many. I think he is exploiting an inefficienctly rather than being inefficient.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    What if the other low post player is on the other side of the lane? If his man doubles, Paolo should be able to pass it to him, especially if it is Mark (with a lob).
    It is almost impossible to play with two big guys on the low block because it is so easy to rotate help Defenders from the opposite Wing or corner. And that guy is so far away from the opposite block that you either can't see him or the defense could recover on the pass anyway. This is why everyone that plays two Bigs goes High post, Low post. It takes away the help. Also this is talk to text and I'm not going to take the time to fix the capitalization issues here. Sorry. But do rest assured I know what constitutes a proper noun.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    I mean, he played vs Duke in 1994, which some might say was exactly when Duke was dominating college basketball. It was the same year Duke played in the Finals for the 4th time in 5 years and concluded a pretty amazing stretch of Final 4 appearances.
    Agreed. That was my ham-handed, rushed, not well written point. But going into the tourney and that game in particular nearly all press had Purdue winning because of him and I think he won the Naismith etc. I always felt that tourney Duke was underrated and to your point they were 1 long rebound out to Scotty Thurmon with a rainbow 3 from winning it all. I felt Robinson, who was good, don't get me wrong, was getting more sunshine from the press than Grant -- and that Duke, particularly Parks, was undervalued as an overall team going into to the tourney and especially against Purdue.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    We know that mid-range jumpers are statistically the least efficient shots in basketball. But we also know there are certain people who could just make a ton of mid-range jumpers. Just not many. I think he is exploiting an inefficienctly rather than being inefficient.
    I wonder how Paolo's shot dispersion would compare to Jayson Tatum's in his year at Duke, as he spent probably the majority of his time that year playing the 4 also (on that team Kennard averaged 36 mpg, Matt Jones 33, Grayson 30 and Frank Jackson 25, taking up essentially all the minutes at the 1-3 spots), and my recollection is he took a large share of 2 point jumpers also.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    I wonder how Paolo's shot dispersion would compare to Jayson Tatum's in his year at Duke, as he spent probably the majority of his time that year playing the 4 also (on that team Kennard averaged 36 mpg, Matt Jones 33, Grayson 30 and Frank Jackson 25, taking up essentially all the minutes at the 1-3 spots), and my recollection is he took a large share of 2 point jumpers also.
    I think that is correct.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by AZLA View Post
    Agreed. That was my ham-handed, rushed, not well written point. But going into the tourney and that game in particular nearly all press had Purdue winning because of him and I think he won the Naismith etc. I always felt that tourney Duke was underrated and to your point they were 1 long rebound out to Scotty Thurmon with a rainbow 3 from winning it all. I felt Robinson, who was good, don't get me wrong, was getting more sunshine from the press than Grant -- and that Duke, particularly Parks, was undervalued as an overall team going into to the tourney and especially against Purdue.
    I agree with all those points!

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    I wonder how Paolo's shot dispersion would compare to Jayson Tatum's in his year at Duke, as he spent probably the majority of his time that year playing the 4 also (on that team Kennard averaged 36 mpg, Matt Jones 33, Grayson 30 and Frank Jackson 25, taking up essentially all the minutes at the 1-3 spots), and my recollection is he took a large share of 2 point jumpers also.
    According to Hoop Math, Paolo has currently taken 36.3% of his shots as two-point jumpers (and has made 43.2% of them), and Jayson Tatum took 34.8% of his shots as two-point jumpers (and made 39.4% of them). Tatum took more threes than Paolo (32.1% of shots for Tatum vs. 26.5% of shots for Paolo), while Paolo took more at the rim (37.3% of shots for Paolo vs. 33.2% of shots for Tatum). So, pretty similar.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    According to Hoop Math, Paolo has currently taken 36.3% of his shots as two-point jumpers (and has made 43.2% of them), and Jayson Tatum took 34.8% of his shots as two-point jumpers (and made 39.4% of them). Tatum took more threes than Paolo (32.1% of shots for Tatum vs. 26.5% of shots for Paolo), while Paolo took more at the rim (37.3% of shots for Paolo vs. 33.2% of shots for Tatum). So, pretty similar.
    Are you hinting that Paolo may be doomed to have a career similar to that of Jason Tatum?

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    According to Hoop Math, Paolo has currently taken 36.3% of his shots as two-point jumpers (and has made 43.2% of them), and Jayson Tatum took 34.8% of his shots as two-point jumpers (and made 39.4% of them). Tatum took more threes than Paolo (32.1% of shots for Tatum vs. 26.5% of shots for Paolo), while Paolo took more at the rim (37.3% of shots for Paolo vs. 33.2% of shots for Tatum). So, pretty similar.
    Banchero reminds me more of Jabari Parker than Tatum. Jabari took 41.8% of his shots as 2pt jumpers, 21.2% of his shots from 3 and 37% at the rim, so same % at the rim, but Jabari shot more 2pt jumpers and fewer 3s. Jabari shot worse at the rim (62.7% Jabari vs 68.4% Paolo) and on 2pt jumpers (39.2% Jabari vs 43.3% Paolo) but better from 3 (35.8% Jabari vs 33.3% Paolo, however with a shorter line).

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by camion View Post
    Are you hinting that Paolo may be doomed to have a career similar to that of Jason Tatum?
    Not at all. At least so far, almost all of Paolo’s advanced stats are better than Tatum’s advanced stats (for Duke). 😎

    But their shot selection was similar.

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