FB: Bowl Projections

[Reilly]

What this thread is *not* -- it's not a bowl vigil. I say one of those gets started if/when win #4 arrives.

Projection #1: 9/9 ... Duke to Annapolis on 12/31 against Navy
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ls/predictions

Projection #2: 9/9 ... Duke to Charlotte on 12/29 against SoCar
Projection #3: 9/9 ... Duke to El Paso on 12/31 against Utah
http://www.espn.com/college-football...ections-week-2

[OldPhiKap]

What this thread is *not* -- it's not a bowl vigil. I say one of those gets started if/when win #4 arrives.

Projection #1: 9/9 ... Duke to Annapolis on 12/31 against Navy
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ls/predictions

Projection #2: 9/9 ... Duke to Charlotte on 12/29 against SoCar
Projection #3: 9/9 ... Duke to El Paso on 12/31 against Utah
http://www.espn.com/college-football...ections-week-2

I would say that a vigil is premature unless and until we get to five. Last season was brutal sitting at four.

While way too early, I’d do the El Paso trip again in a heartbeat. Charlotte was brutally cold.

And necessary disclaimer — we are still four wins away from worrying too seriously about this. But having said that, fans of big programs start plannng early. Acting like I expect to be there . . . .

[Reilly]

I would say that a vigil is premature unless and until we get to five. Last season was brutal sitting at four.

While way too early, I’d do the El Paso trip again in a heartbeat. Charlotte was brutally cold.

And necessary disclaimer — we are still four wins away from worrying too seriously about this. But having said that, fans of big programs start plannng early. Acting like I expect to be there . . . .

This is not about us. This is not about our expectations. This is about what others are saying. It's OK. There is no reverse jinx or apology needed. It's just a collection point for random internet typings.

[budwom]

Sure would be nice to grab a win at Baylor giving us presumably four after NCCU...gives us time to get Jones back for the stretch run...

[wilson]

Some updates from this week's projections:

Jerry Palm at CBS Sports says Military Bowl vs. Navy, as does SB Nation's main college football blog.
ESPN is split, with one analyst saying Belk Bowl vs. South Carolina and the other saying Sun Bowl vs. Utah.

[OldPhiKap]

Some updates from this week's projections:

Jerry Palm at CBS Sports says Military Bowl vs. Navy, as does SB Nation's main college football blog.
ESPN is split, with one analyst saying Belk Bowl vs. South Carolina and the other saying Sun Bowl vs. Utah.

I'm aiming higher. But good to know they're putting in a floor for us. ;-)

Seriously, 3-0 at this point is phenomenal. The fact that we did it under the adverse conditions we have encountered so far is even more astounding.

We are talented, deep, and well-coached. Good things can happen.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I'm aiming higher. But good to know they're putting in a floor for us. ;-)

Seriously, 3-0 at this point is phenomenal. The fact that we did it under the adverse conditions we have encountered so far is even more astounding.

We are talented, deep, and well-coached. Good things can happen.

Agree with all of this ^^^ - and before the season, I'd have taken being 2-1 at this point, with those kind of bowl projections. Now I think aiming higher is appropriate. Two very different historical lessons...at 4-0 last year, no one thought we'd be 4-6...then at that point, 7-6 was a long long shot. But in 2013, at this point, no one was even fantasizing about 10-2. Seasons take on a life of their own...just look at the emotional roller coaster for Duke from the time DJ and Gilbert were injured....9 days ago...to now.

[wilson]

I'm aiming higher. But good to know they're putting in a floor for us. ;-)

Seriously, 3-0 at this point is phenomenal. The fact that we did it under the adverse conditions we have encountered so far is even more astounding.

We are talented, deep, and well-coached. Good things can happen.

Fully agreed. I couldn't be more ecstatic that our program has progressed from "Bowl?" to "Which bowl?"
Saturday's performance was, sneakily, one of the best indicators we've gotten throughout the Cutcliffe era that things aren't what they used to be. Even in the Boone/Crowder/Duncan years, I don't think there was enough depth on the roster to pull off that kind of road win.

[OldPhiKap]

Agree with all of this ^^^ - and before the season, I'd have taken being 2-1 at this point, with those kind of bowl projections. Now I think aiming higher is appropriate. Two very different historical lessons...at 4-0 last year, no one thought 6-6 was where we'd end up. But in 2013, at this point, no one was even fantasizing about 10-2.

Yup.

There are three games that we will likely be clear underdogs -- VT, @Clemson, @Miami. Taking 1 out of 3 would be difficult but not out of the question.

Everything else should be roughly pick'em, slight dog, or a favorite of some sort.

I picked 9-3 before the season started, so I'll stick with that. But as you say, it could be anything from here on out. One game at a time.

[wilson]

Yup.

There are three games that we will likely be clear underdogs -- VT, @Clemson, @Miami. Taking 1 out of 3 would be difficult but not out of the question.

Everything else should be roughly pick'em, slight dog, or a favorite of some sort.

I picked 9-3 before the season started, so I'll stick with that. But as you say, it could be anything from here on out. One game at a time.

Again, agreed. Pretty clearly, the VA Tech game is our best chance to jump up and nick one of those. I'm willing to put the over/under on wins at 9.5 right now, though if I'm being really honest, I'd take the under.

[ratamero]

Yup.

There are three games that we will likely be clear underdogs -- VT, @Clemson, @Miami. Taking 1 out of 3 would be difficult but not out of the question.

FPI already has us as slight favourites in the VT game (something like 52% IIRC). Granted, computer rankings seem too love us, but 1 out of those 3 games seem perfectly feasible.

[budwom]

Again, agreed. Pretty clearly, the VA Tech game is our best chance to jump up and nick one of those. I'm willing to put the over/under on wins at 9.5 right now, though if I'm being really honest, I'd take the under.

love your optimism, but that seems crazy high. Not knowing when Jones will return, right now I'd count on going 4-0 to start, losses to VT, Clemmons and Miami, then winning half of the other five, for an over/under of 6.5...taking four of that remaining five would put it at 8.0, beyond which I don't dare venture.
p.s. FPI may favor us vs VT, but I bet Las Vegas won't...

[OldPhiKap]

FPI already has us as slight favourites in the VT game (something like 52% IIRC). Granted, computer rankings seem too love us, but 1 out of those 3 games seem perfectly feasible.

love your optimism, but that seems crazy high. Not knowing when Jones will return, right now I'd count on going 4-0 to start, losses to VT, Clemmons and Miami, then winning half of the other five, for an over/under of 6.5...taking four of that remaining five would put it at 8.0, beyond which I don't dare venture.
p.s. FPI may favor us vs VT, but I bet Las Vegas won't...

Don't want to discount this weekend for either team of course, but I would be shocked if Vegas doesn't have us at least -5.5 against VT.

[wilson]

The Sporting News has weighed in for the week too, predicting Sun Bowl vs. USC.

[devildeac]

The Sporting News has weighed in for the week too, predicting Sun Bowl vs. USC.

OPK just booked his flight and ordered tix and has multiple hepatitis vaccines on stand-by. Maybe we'll see Jack Sears play...

[Acymetric]

I'm surprised at all the Sun Bowl projections...I guess its been 4 years but I feel like we would not be their first choice. I would think Belk, Music City, or Taxslayer bowls would be more likely than Sun Bowl or Pinstripe bowl if we end up in that tier.

[OldPhiKap]

OPK just booked his flight and ordered tix and has multiple hepatitis vaccines on stand-by. Maybe we'll see Jack Sears play...

One of the NiecePKs is a student at USC, and another is a student at Duke. Would love to see them both in El Paso.

FWIW, if we end up there -- El Paso is fun and the Sun Bowl is worth the trip. My favorite venue of the bowls in the Cut era, even though the most difficult to get to.

Plus -- New Year's Eve in Juarez?!? What could possibly go wrong?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Again, agreed. Pretty clearly, the VA Tech game is our best chance to jump up and nick one of those. I'm willing to put the over/under on wins at 9.5 right now, though if I'm being really honest, I'd take the under.

I think Miami might be better chance to pick one off than VT - and Clemson, well, they're just on another level...

[jimsumner]

I think Miami might be better chance to pick one off than VT - and Clemson, well, they're just on another level...

Miami is on the road, while VT is at home.

But Daniel Jones should be the QB against Miami but not against VT. With a healthy Jones, I would like Duke's chances at home against the Hokies.

But in his absence, this is a tough one.

[devildeac]

One of the NiecePKs is a student at USC, and another is a student at Duke. Would love to see them both in El Paso.

FWIW, if we end up there -- El Paso is fun and the Sun Bowl is worth the trip. My favorite venue of the bowls in the Cut era, even though the most difficult to get to.

Plus -- New Year's Eve in Juarez?!? What could possibly go wrong?

DBR can't raise enough bail money to have you extradited?