Florence

[devildeac]

Finally some good news for the CHeat football team, they won’t be able to absorb another humiliating loss this weekend.

Shoot, the Hat might count it as a win and have rings and banners made.

[CameronBlue]

Florence, UNC, Larry Fedora, a train whistle...

What are things that blow hard, Alex?

(Low bow to brevity for that one.)

[PackMan97]

Secret NC hurricane shield has been activated. The is the ECMWF model.

Dm1fhUNXgAQOp0e.jpg

[DUKIECB]

Secret NC hurricane shield has been activated. The is the ECMWF model.

Dm1fhUNXgAQOp0e.jpg

Pretty crazy and yes most of the state will be spared in that scenario but it will cause catastrophic flooding along the coast with totals approaching 40 inches of rain in places.

[Acymetric]

Secret NC hurricane shield has been activated. The is the ECMWF model.

Dm1fhUNXgAQOp0e.jpg

That path seems...unlikely? Of course, I am no meteorologist. That path would also still result in a decent chunk of the NC coast getting slammed pretty hard even without being directly hit by the eye wall.

[BigWayne]

Secret NC hurricane shield has been activated. The is the ECMWF model.

Dm1fhUNXgAQOp0e.jpg

The most important thing on that projection and many others is the lack of distance between the dots near the coast.
Florence is projected to slow from its current 17MPH track movement to about 3MPH when it gets near or over the coast.
That lack of movement will slow the max wind speeds down, but probably after a lot of damage is already done.
Then the lack of track movement will possibly create a biblical rain driven flood.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The most important thing on that projection and many others is the lack of distance between the dots near the coast.
Florence is projected to slow from its current 17MPH track movement to about 3MPH when it gets near or over the coast.
That lack of movement will slow the max wind speeds down, but probably after a lot of damage is already done.
Then the lack of track movement will possibly create a biblical rain driven flood.

Keep in mind that wind is a cumulative destroyer....having more hours of lesser top speed can be worse than a storm that rips on through quickly.

[fuse]

I wasn’t quite sure where to put this on DBR...

UNCW cancelled classes starting on Monday.

ECU cancelled classes starting on Tuesday.

NC State cancelled classes starting tonight.

ShoeNC cancelled classes starting in 1991.

😂😂😂😂😂

I know what we are preparing to face is not in any way funny.
I hope this bad joke brings a moment or two of levity.

Stay safe all!

[devildeac]

I wasn’t quite sure where to put this on DBR...

UNCW cancelled classes starting on Monday.

ECU cancelled classes starting on Tuesday.

NC State cancelled classes starting tonight.

ShoeNC cancelled classes starting in 1991.

😂😂😂😂😂

I know what we are preparing to face is not in any way funny.
I hope this bad joke brings a moment or two of levity.

Stay safe all!

Man, you're slow:

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...d-for-Florence



Honestly, every time I read this, I get a good chortle.

[BigWayne]

Keep in mind that wind is a cumulative destroyer...having more hours of lesser top speed can be worse than a storm that rips on through quickly.

Oh I certainly agree. If this thing stalls out like they are talking about, wherever it is at the time is going to get devastated.

[fuse]

Man, you're slow:

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...d-for-Florence



Honestly, every time I read this, I get a good chortle.

Yup. I did scan the thread and somehow missed it.

[fuse]

I can’t recall if it was Gladwell’s original Freakonomics or SuperFreakonomics that discussed a cheap and easy way to prevent hurricanes via a funnel that pulls the warm water down to cooler depths.

While I realize messing with weather and climate may bring unanticipated consequences, about now I wish someone had been experimenting with the efficacy of the proposed solution.

[cato]

I can’t recall if it was Gladwell’s original Freakonomics or SuperFreakonomics that discussed a cheap and easy way to prevent hurricanes via a funnel that pulls the warm water down to cooler depths.

While I realize messing with weather and climate may bring unanticipated consequences, about now I wish someone had been experimenting with the efficacy of the proposed solution.

A funnel? Like, a really big one or lots of little ones or ?

[Acymetric]

I can’t recall if it was Gladwell’s original Freakonomics or SuperFreakonomics that discussed a cheap and easy way to prevent hurricanes via a funnel that pulls the warm water down to cooler depths.

While I realize messing with weather and climate may bring unanticipated consequences, about now I wish someone had been experimenting with the efficacy of the proposed solution.

Is that really cheap OR easy on a scale large enough to have any real impact on a hurricane?

There would probably be a lot of concern on effects on the ocean ecosystem in addition to the conversation about consequences of changing weather.

[DU82]

Just received an email that Southwest cancelled my flight Friday to Dallas. Haven’t checked to see if that’s an airport decision, or carrier. Or just common sense by both.

[BLPOG]

I know it's too late now to do major planning before the storm, but as one who lives in an area where we lose power for five days at a time rather frequently (last October we lost about 150 seventy foot pine trees, several on the house, dozens across the driveway, no power for five days) I strongly recommend looking into getting a decent quality portable generator (roughly a thousand bucks) AND have a genuine electrician hook it up properly to the grid (maybe $2k) so you don't fry the line crews when they restore power.

We've had our system for 10-12 years and it's a life saver...it has enough power to run our furnace (nice for when the power is out at ten degrees below zero), fridge, lights, water pump (hot showers!) and some other stuff...

You can go whole hog and get a whole house, automatic turn-on generator, but that costs much closer to $10k when you add in everything required, e.g. big propane tank, bigger generator, etc.

It's a genuine comfort not to be worrying about freezing your home's pipes, or having all your food rot in the fridge...just hunker down til juice is back on.

Admittedly I have not checked the prices at Home Depot recently, but I think you can get a "decent" (for my values of decent) generator for a lot less than a thousand dollars - although that might be in Florida as opposed to North Carolina prices. Back in '04 and '05, when we had two consecutive very bad hurricane seasons, I think the prices for the everyman's generator tended to be between $500-800. It was not uncommon to know someone with a generator at the time, but it was not exactly common to own one.

After '04 and '05, that changed a bit. Those seasons made people think it was worth owning one. Many, many more Floridians purchased shutters and generators. The prices dropped a bit with the increased quantity demanded; the same class of generators tended to be between $400-700 in subsequent years, by my recollection. Naturally, it took ten more years for a another hurricane to make landfall in Florida. Even so, many more homes have generators and they are less expensive than you might guess.*

That said, I think the ability to hook it up to the grid/mains power is totally unnecessary for the typical use-case. In '04 and '05, I had power loss for about 2.5-3 weeks and 3-3.5 weeks. That was pretty bad. No one would willingly live in Florida if it were not for air conditioning. It is miserable. We survived. We were able to borrow a generator eventually but we only used it to intermittently power the refrigerator, a few lights, and fans. Unless you have (several) something(s) important to keep continuously powered, it is totally unnecessary to be able to hook up the generator to the grid. Buy some extension cords and power strips. You should have them anyway.

*In Florida, you don't worry about it getting cold. I suppose that could be a consideration in North Carolina, which could raise the price/power requirements/strain on generator, but the odds seem low.

Husband-of-weezie would wonder where's the fun in that when he so thinks he's Mr. Electric. We've danced around buying a generator for years but he tends to think everything is too expensive. With the exception of me, who he rightly believes has added real value to his life.

But you sound right on with the big old house generator. I'll start packing to head up your way for a nice long visit if the wind starts picking up here.

PS Duke just cancelled classes too. Hurricane Party! Although those days are probably long gone.

Maybe the "Hurricane Party" days are gone...but I know my cohort still takes advantage of inclement-weather circumstance to hold a special-occasion version of certain game...

[BigWayne]

Admittedly I have not checked the prices at Home Depot recently, but I think you can get a "decent" (for my values of decent) generator for a lot less than a thousand dollars

Contractor grade ones that are very loud are what you are thinking of. budwom referred to portable generators being ~$1000. These are smaller and quieter and more expensive as a result. Honda 2000 series is the most popular with campers and RV owners for that reason.

That said, I think the ability to hook it up to the grid/mains power is totally unnecessary for the typical use-case.

Depends on your situation. When I was in Georgia, my power panel was situated in a way that I could quite easily install a junction box on the exterior wall directly behind it. That allowed me to plug the generator in with a custom made 220V cord and power any circuit in the house. You do have to have a main disconnect breaker so you don't try to power up your neighbors house as well. Then you have to watch the neighbors to find out when the power comes back on.

You do need an electrician to do it if you don't have the background to do it yourself.

[fuse]

Is that really cheap OR easy on a scale large enough to have any real impact on a hurricane?

There would probably be a lot of concern on effects on the ocean ecosystem in addition to the conversation about consequences of changing weather.

I could not find an online resource to refer.

My memory says it was in SuperFreakonomics and it was both cheap and easy.

The concept was off the coast of Africa, station some anchored funnels that would decrease the warm water that allows hurricanes to form by drawing it down the funnel to a depth of constant water temperature.

Again my recollection was some level of testing and modeling had been done.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The track is looking better this morning for this New Bern resident. The eye is expected to stay off shore, and drift further south of us until landfall. That keeps us out of the dangerous northeast corridor, or at least in the proximity of it we were expecting to be, and reduces our rain amount. We were looking at over 20", and now we are a more manageable 12". Plus, with the southern drift, the rain won't linger over us like they were calling for.
We are still prepping for the worst (we are staying), but happy to see a little better of a forecast.

I know the folks to our south are less happy than I am, and I'm thinking of them.

[camion]

I posted earlier about Florence visiting Florence, SC. I wasn't expecting it to happen, but the current track comes pretty close. Sunday morning 2 AM we pretty much have a Florence confluence.

Coincidentally the predicted rainfall for my area, Greenville, SC is up from 2" to around 4". Still that's minor compared to the coast and other areas further east.

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