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  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yes, DiK and I are the only folks alive in the 1-strike pool... but she has zero strikes. She and I have both used up the Rams, Chiefs, Pats, Chargers, Green Bay, Panthers, Texans, and Falcons. I still have the Saints and he does not. She still has the Vikings and I do not. We both still have the Steelers too (and they look like an attractive pick this week).

    This could be the week to really go for it and take a bad team playing an even worse one. Do you take Tampa over the Giants? What about Arizona over the wretched Raiders?
    Fixed it for you, Jason.

    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    This is as long as I remember one of our survival pools running. I'm starting to run low on super-confident picks, but I also make a point of looking ahead through the schedule of future matchups before making my weekly pick. This means that I'll sometimes make a pick at, say, 70% confidence over one at 90% confidence, in the name of preserving more favorable future picks. I did this in the very first week this year, picking Denver to win at home even though they're not very good...they always perform well in their first home game, especially if it's in Week 1, owing to some players still rounding into optimal game shape. That pick paid off, and effectively bought me an extra week to choose from stronger contenders (I wouldn't touch the Broncos in just about any matchup at this point in this season). Looking ahead, I have my slate of picks mapped out through the end of the regular season, giving me a string of reasonably confident picks relative to the dwindling pool of choices.
    Unfortunately, I don't look ahead. I go with the best pick available that week and usually look at the home teams. I have been making the same pick in both pools. I've made a pick for the week but may change it before the deadline.

  2. #122
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInKansas View Post
    Unfortunately, I don't look ahead. I go with the best pick available that week and usually look at the home teams. I have been making the same pick in both pools. I've made a pick for the week but may change it before the deadline.
    Same. What good is a pick in week 13 if you eliminate yourself with a bad pick in week 10?
    "There can BE only one."

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I always think about looking ahead and preserving a team if I can... but I rarely do it. This week I did.

    DiK, if we reach week week 14, I'm gonna have a killer pick... but I may not make it past this week to get there.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #124
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I always think about looking ahead and preserving a team if I can... but I rarely do it. This week I did.

    DiK, if we reach week week 14, I'm gonna have a killer pick... but I may not make it past this week to get there.
    It could be interesting next week, then. I'm glad I have a game to give in this pool. Don't feel good about my current choice but not sure if I'm going to change it. I haven't even looked to see what the match ups are next week.

  5. #125
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Mary's Place
    Ah well, I had my best survivor football run ever. And yes, I chose my second-best available matchup (Eagles -7 at home vs. Cryboys) instead of Chargers / Raiders. So it goes...
    "Quality is not an option!"

  6. #126
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInKansas View Post
    It could be interesting next week, then. I'm glad I have a game to give in this pool. Don't feel good about my current choice but not sure if I'm going to change it. I haven't even looked to see what the match ups are next week.
    If you make it to next week, I'll have a strike to give - we both have the Cardinals.

  7. #127
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInKansas View Post
    If you make it to next week, I'll have a strike to give - we both have the Cardinals.
    I still cannot believe I picked a team that is 2-7 on the season. What was I thinking?!?!

    I thought for sure you would take the Steelers. That is who I almost took.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #128
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I still cannot believe I picked a team that is 2-7 on the season. What was I thinking?!?!

    I thought for sure you would take the Steelers. That is who I almost took.
    Picked the Cardinals originally. Contemplated switching to the Steelers multiple times but, even thus morning, I just couldn't make the switch. Fingers crossed that the Cardinals win.

    I may regret not switching.

  9. #129
    So, is it over?

  10. #130
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    So, is it over?
    Yep. DinK wins the one-strike pool, but is eliminated from the no-strike pool. Highlander and I are the last ones standing in the no-strike pool, after Ben Roethlisberger’s last-second heroics salvaged Highlander’s Steelers luck today.
    *caveat: The Saints haven’t technically won yet, but they’re up 45-7 with 7 minutes left, so I should be good.

  11. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    *caveat: The Saints haven’t technically won yet, but they’re up 45-7 with 7 minutes left, so I should be good.
    They just added a field goal, so I think you can be certain now. 😜

  12. #132
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I still cannot believe I picked a team that is 2-7 on the season. What was I thinking?!?!

    I thought for sure you would take the Steelers. That is who I almost took.
    This is what I get for looking ahead. I aw the Steelers playing the Raiders in a few weeks and so I figured I would save the Steelers. What a huge freaking mistake that was!

    Congrats DiK... nice win! I shall now reward you with some moderator sporks... which are really valuable
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #133
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    This is what I get for looking ahead. I aw the Steelers playing the Raiders in a few weeks and so I figured I would save the Steelers. What a huge freaking mistake that was!

    Congrats DiK... nice win! I shall now reward you with some moderator sporks... which are really valuable
    Thank you, Jason. Kicking myself for not switching to the Steelers now - lots of late lead changes in Sunday's games.

  14. #134
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Yep. DinK wins the one-strike pool, but is eliminated from the no-strike pool. Highlander and I are the last ones standing in the no-strike pool, after Ben Roethlisberger’s last-second heroics salvaged Highlander’s Steelers luck today.
    *caveat: The Saints haven’t technically won yet, but they’re up 45-7 with 7 minutes left, so I should be good.
    I also survived earlier this year when Rodgers made a miracle 4Q comeback and a second time when Gano hit a 63 yard field goal. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.

    I actually still have the Saints available, but not sure I will burn them this week. At this point, everyone the Saints play looks pretty attractive (Tampa Bay, Dallas, Carolina, Atlanta, etc.).
    "There can BE only one."

  15. #135
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    I picked the Cowboys this week in part because I believed Washington was in trouble with Alex Smith hurt, but also in part because I was feeling impatient and wanted to get my matchup out of the way early this week. Paid off.

  16. #136
    Baltimore cruises vs. Oakland and I'm on to another week. Some interesting possibilities this week and next.
    "There can BE only one."

  17. #137
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Highlander View Post
    Baltimore cruises vs. Oakland and I'm on to another week. Some interesting possibilities this week and next.
    Both of us ever onward...definitely the longest-running contest I can remember in any season. Great job.

  18. #138
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Both of us ever onward...definitely the longest-running contest I can remember in any season. Great job.
    I was going to ask what the record was for most weeks. I think someone survived into double digit weeks a few years ago (Bob Green maybe?), but it was kind of anticlimactic since it was just one person for 6+ of those weeks.

    I still have NO and Houston left. Tempted to take the Browns vs. my Panthers as bad as the cats have looked recently.
    "There can BE only one."

  19. #139
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Highlander View Post
    I was going to ask what the record was for most weeks. I think someone survived into double digit weeks a few years ago (Bob Green maybe?), but it was kind of anticlimactic since it was just one person for 6+ of those weeks.

    I still have NO and Houston left. Tempted to take the Browns vs. my Panthers as bad as the cats have looked recently.
    Houston is a good one to have still alive, but NO is possibly close to the point of diminishing returns...holding a 4-game divisional lead with 4 left to play, they may start sitting people to preserve playoff health. I presume that you're rooting for a down-to-the-wire race between the Saints & the Rams for the #1 NFC seed, which would largely forestall this.

  20. #140
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Houston is a good one to have still alive, but NO is possibly close to the point of diminishing returns...holding a 4-game divisional lead with 4 left to play, they may start sitting people to preserve playoff health. I presume that you're rooting for a down-to-the-wire race between the Saints & the Rams for the #1 NFC seed, which would largely forestall this.
    Agree that the NFC South Division is essentially locked up. But there are still important things for the Saints to play for over the next 3 weeks, namely a 1R bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so I don't think they will start mailing it in prior to week 17. Having the H2H win vs. the Rams helps towards the latter, but they are down a game currently so they would need to win out and hope the Rams drop at least one more game.

    Getting to Week 17 could be very difficult as the favorites could treat it like a preseason game and most of the rest will have been mathematically eliminated from contention and playing for draft position.
    "There can BE only one."

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