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  1. #1
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    Top 5 films of Winter 2018 early discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    So, when do we set up a fall movies? or do we wait for the Winter?
    We don't do a fall contest. The winter usually starts in November, but it might be interesting to start it in October with Venom coming out Oct 5th and First Man Oct 12th. If First Man gets some award buzz, which I think it could, then it could have long legs and really be a player.

    I see the contenders this winter being:

    Venom (Oct 5)
    A Star is Born (Oct 5)
    First Man (Oct 12)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Nov 2)
    The Grinch (Nov 9)
    Fantastic Beasts 2 (Nov 16)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Nov 21)
    Creed 2 (Nov 21)
    Into the Spiderverse (Dec 14)
    Mortal Engines (Dec 14)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Dec 19)
    Aquaman (Dec 21)
    Holmes and Watson (Dec 21)
    Bumblebee (Dec 21)
    Alita: Battle Angel (Dec 21)
    Welcome to Marwen (Dec 21)
    Hellboy (Jan 11)
    Glass (Jan 18)
    LegoMovie 2 (Feb 8)
    Dark Phoenix (Feb 14)

    That is 20 films. I will need to trim the list when we get to voting time.

    I am sorta thinking of combining some films that are a bit more of a longshot but are sorta similar to make picking them a bit more attractive. For example, I could put Mortal Engines and Alita together as a pair of young adult/sci-fi/distopia films. I could combine First Man and Bohemian Rhapsody as Oscar-contender biographies. Maybe put A Star is Born and Welcome to Marwen together as Oscar-contending adult-skewing flicks. Perhaps Venom and Into the Spiderverse are a pair of traditional Spider-man alternatives.

    Unlike most seasons, there are very few locks. I see three or four likely picks, but there is nothing that is a lock. I mean, the big sequels don't even come from films that made huge bucks (Fantastic Beasts 1 made $234 mil, Wreck-it Ralph made $184 mil, Justice League made $234 mil).

    -Jason "this will be the toughest top 5 yet" Evans
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 08-20-2018 at 05:48 PM.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post

    Unlike most seasons, there are very few locks. I see three or four likely picks, but there is nothing that is a lock. I mean, the big sequels don't even come from films that made huge bucks (Fantastic Beasts 1 made $234 mil, Wreck-it Ralph made $184 mil, Justice League made $234 mil).
    Fantastic Beasts is a total lock. Probably the only one.
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Fantastic Beasts is a total lock. Probably the only one.
    A sequel to a poorly received film that made $234 mil (sequels often fail to match the original) that stars a guy (Johnny Depp) who is being slammed fairly hard by the #MeToo movement (see Kevin Spacey's corpse of a career for perspective)...

    I will probably vote for Fantastic Beasts 2, but it ain't a lock in the way most seasons have a lock or two. I mean, we typically have at least 1 or 2 films that everyone knows will make $250+ mil (like Thor and Last Jedi last winter; Rogue One in 2016; Force Awakens and Mockingjay pt 2 in 2015; the Hobbit and Hunger Games films in 2014 and 2013... and so on). I contend there is nothing that is a lock to make even $200 mil this year. Something will... heck, several movies almost certainly will... but no one knows which film it will be at this time.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    A sequel to a poorly received film that made $234 mil (sequels often fail to match the original) that stars a guy (Johnny Depp) who is being slammed fairly hard by the #MeToo movement (see Kevin Spacey's corpse of a career for perspective)...

    I will probably vote for Fantastic Beasts 2, but it ain't a lock in the way most seasons have a lock or two. I mean, we typically have at least 1 or 2 films that everyone knows will make $250+ mil (like Thor and Last Jedi last winter; Rogue One in 2016; Force Awakens and Mockingjay pt 2 in 2015; the Hobbit and Hunger Games films in 2014 and 2013... and so on). I contend there is nothing that is a lock to make even $200 mil this year. Something will... heck, several movies almost certainly will... but no one knows which film it will be at this time.
    I'll be shocked if FB isn't the #1 or #2 movie.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I'll be shocked if FB isn't the #1 or #2 movie.
    I smell a pie bet . . .

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    A sequel to a poorly received film that made $234 mil (sequels often fail to match the original) that stars a guy (Johnny Depp) who is being slammed fairly hard by the #MeToo movement (see Kevin Spacey's corpse of a career for perspective)
    I thought the first one was a total snoozer, and I really have no desire to see the next one. It's not going to have the loyalty of the Harry Potter movies.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by aimo View Post
    I thought the first one was a total snoozer, and I really have no desire to see the next one. It's not going to have the loyalty of the Harry Potter movies.
    I'm a Harry Potter fan and agree that I thought the first Beasts movie was a bit of a one-off that I didn't care that much about. I didn't even see it in the theater. When I saw it I think liked it better than you did but I still didn't think it was great.

    However, I disagree that the second FB movie won't have the loyalty of Harry Potter fandom. Because the second movie is going to connect Newt and Grindelwald with Dumbledore. I think seeing a young Dumbledore in the era leading up to his infamous duel with Grindelwald and ~60 years before the events of the Harry Potter books will bring the Harry Potter fans in droves. JK Rowling is supposedly more involved in this screenplay than she was in the first movie too.
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  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    I'm a Harry Potter fan and agree that I thought the first Beasts movie was a bit of a one-off that I didn't care that much about. I didn't even see it in the theater. When I saw it I think liked it better than you did but I still didn't think it was great.

    However, I disagree that the second FB movie won't have the loyalty of Harry Potter fandom. Because the second movie is going to connect Newt and Grindelwald with Dumbledore. I think seeing a young Dumbledore in the era leading up to his infamous duel with Grindelwald and ~60 years before the events of the Harry Potter books will bring the Harry Potter fans in droves. JK Rowling is supposedly more involved in this screenplay than she was in the first movie too.
    I, too, am a Harry Potter fan. I agree that audiences will come to see FB2 despite the underwhelming FB1, mostly because young Dumbledore is a huge draw, though I will be curious to see what of Dumbledore's whimsy is found in Jude Law's performance. I disagree with you on Rowling's degree of involvement and its benefits, however. As I posted previously in greater detail, I thought FB1 suffered primarily due to Rowling's inexperience as sole screenwriter and hoped she would bring in a writing partner with more screenwriting background to bolster future FB efforts. That hope may not ultimately be worth much, as Rowling is not only yet again the sole credited screenwriter, but apparently had already finished the screenplay for FB2 prior to the release of FB1. Instead, I am left hoping that the final draft of FB2 worked to correct some of the issues identified after the release FB1.

    All that being said - I will still pay to see FB2 in theaters, because, like a top 3 recruit, FB2 has great potential with a high ceiling and a relatively low floor. The most likely result will still be enjoyable for a fan like me, so I'll be there (babysitter permitting).

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I see the contenders this winter being:

    Venom (Oct 5)
    A Star is Born (Oct 5)
    First Man (Oct 12)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Nov 2)
    The Grinch (Nov 9)
    Fantastic Beasts 2 (Nov 16)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Nov 21)
    Creed 2 (Nov 21)
    Into the Spiderverse (Dec 14)
    Mortal Engines (Dec 14)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Dec 19)
    Aquaman (Dec 21)
    Holmes and Watson (Dec 21)
    Bumblebee (Dec 21)
    Alita: Battle Angel (Dec 21)
    Welcome to Marwen (Dec 21)
    Hellboy (Jan 11)
    Glass (Jan 18)
    LegoMovie 2 (Feb 8)
    Dark Phoenix (Feb 14)

    I am sorta thinking of combining some films that are a bit more of a longshot but are sorta similar to make picking them a bit more attractive. For example, I could put Mortal Engines and Alita together as a pair of young adult/sci-fi/distopia films. I could combine First Man and Bohemian Rhapsody as Oscar-contender biographies. Maybe put A Star is Born and Welcome to Marwen together as Oscar-contending adult-skewing flicks. Perhaps Venom and Into the Spiderverse are a pair of traditional Spider-man alternatives.
    What do folk think about this idea? Appealing? Any suggestions for combos?

    Also, last year we extended into February films, which allowed us to include Black Panther and a couple others. Should we do that again to get Lego 2 and Dark Phoenix in or end it with the January films?
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    What do folk think about this idea? Appealing? Any suggestions for combos?

    Also, last year we extended into February films, which allowed us to include Black Panther and a couple others. Should we do that again to get Lego 2 and Dark Phoenix in or end it with the January films?
    I'm not into the combining idea. Yes to February flicks. They always have a chance.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I'm not into the combining idea. Yes to February flicks. They always have a chance.
    Seconded.

  12. #12
    As much as I've anticipated movies the past 12 months or so...this winter slate seem uninspiring.

    Venom (Oct 5)
    * Eh, doesn't really look like my thing. Is this a sequel to Life? I can't see this having the broad appeal to make the top 5

    A Star is Born (Oct 5)
    * A musical romantic drama...good luck with that in the top 5.

    First Man (Oct 12)
    * Apollo 13 it will not be. Not to mention I think it's going to get skewered for the all white male cast (regardless of the fact it was NASA in the 1960s)

    Bohemian Rhapsody (Nov 2)
    * Won't make as much money as Wayne's World

    The Grinch (Nov 9)
    * Bahhumbug

    Fantastic Beasts 2 (Nov 16)
    * Eh, Harry Potter is so last decade.

    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Nov 21)
    * First movie didn't break $200m.

    Creed 2 (Nov 21)
    * The first movie was pretty darned good and I think Michael B Jordan is on a serious roll. I'd feel better if Coogler was directing instead of Executive Producing. Still think it's going to be bigger than the first. If only boxing were more popular.

    Into the Spiderverse (Dec 14)
    * WAT? I have no idea on this one. The Incredibles it is not.

    Mortal Engines (Dec 14)
    * Not sure steam punk is a prescription for hitting the top 5

    Mary Poppins Returns (Dec 19)
    * How many movies does Disney release that aren't hits. Gotta think this has a good shot. If nothing else, it's got the Christmas holiday and a beloved classic (even if I thought the first was stupid)

    Aquaman (Dec 21)
    * Yawn, DC.

    Holmes and Watson (Dec 21)
    * If there is a movie that I hope bombs this winter, this just might be the one.

    Bumblebee (Dec 21)
    * Transformers. /smh

    Alita: Battle Angel (Dec 21)
    * Too much competition. To wierd of a story

    Welcome to Marwen (Dec 21)
    * Speaking of odd stories, this one is going nowhere.

    Hellboy (Jan 11)
    * Niche movie, will be lucky to break $100m

    Glass (Jan 18)
    * I don't think folks trust M. Knight S. enough for this to be top 5.

    LegoMovie 2 (Feb 8)
    * Maybe. I don't know. I thought Lego: Batman would have done better. I guess someone has to finish top 5.

    Dark Phoenix (Feb 14)
    * Which is losing fans the fastest? The DCEU? Transformers? or X-men?

    -------------------
    I guess right now I'm thinking Lego2, FantasticBeasts2, Mary Poppins2, Creed2 and an unidentified sequel to be named later.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    As much as I've anticipated movies the past 12 months or so...this winter slate seem uninspiring.
    I'm staying off your lawn this winter.

    I'm totally lost after FB2. Perhaps my biggest one I am unsure of is Grinch. I could see it missing the top 5, I could also see it being in the top 3. How many times do we need to see a Grinch story? I've seen enough. But the new batch of kids haven't, and it's hard to vote against the same folks that pulled out Despicable Me and Sing. I just wonder why they pushed back the release of this one from a year ago, usually that is a bad sign. Trailers make it look funny, though. (But trailers are deceptive bastards.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I'm staying off your lawn this winter.
    Do not worry, ALL the neighborhood kids know to stay off my lawn!

  15. #15
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    PS, why are the October movies included? I didn't think they had been before. (I'm not voting for any of them anyway.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  16. #16
    Best actor Ethan Hawke, First Reformed.

    Book.

    Best supporting actor Cedric Kyles, First Reformed.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    As much as I've anticipated movies the past 12 months or so...this winter slate seem uninspiring.

    Venom (Oct 5)
    * Eh, doesn't really look like my thing. Is this a sequel to Life? I can't see this having the broad appeal to make the top 5

    A Star is Born (Oct 5)
    * A musical romantic drama...good luck with that in the top 5.

    First Man (Oct 12)
    * Apollo 13 it will not be. Not to mention I think it's going to get skewered for the all white male cast (regardless of the fact it was NASA in the 1960s)

    Bohemian Rhapsody (Nov 2)
    * Won't make as much money as Wayne's World

    The Grinch (Nov 9)
    * Bahhumbug

    Fantastic Beasts 2 (Nov 16)
    * Eh, Harry Potter is so last decade.

    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Nov 21)
    * First movie didn't break $200m.

    Creed 2 (Nov 21)
    * The first movie was pretty darned good and I think Michael B Jordan is on a serious roll. I'd feel better if Coogler was directing instead of Executive Producing. Still think it's going to be bigger than the first. If only boxing were more popular.

    Into the Spiderverse (Dec 14)
    * WAT? I have no idea on this one. The Incredibles it is not.

    Mortal Engines (Dec 14)
    * Not sure steam punk is a prescription for hitting the top 5

    Mary Poppins Returns (Dec 19)
    * How many movies does Disney release that aren't hits. Gotta think this has a good shot. If nothing else, it's got the Christmas holiday and a beloved classic (even if I thought the first was stupid)

    Aquaman (Dec 21)
    * Yawn, DC.

    Holmes and Watson (Dec 21)
    * If there is a movie that I hope bombs this winter, this just might be the one.

    Bumblebee (Dec 21)
    * Transformers. /smh

    Alita: Battle Angel (Dec 21)
    * Too much competition. To wierd of a story

    Welcome to Marwen (Dec 21)
    * Speaking of odd stories, this one is going nowhere.

    Hellboy (Jan 11)
    * Niche movie, will be lucky to break $100m

    Glass (Jan 18)
    * I don't think folks trust M. Knight S. enough for this to be top 5.

    LegoMovie 2 (Feb 8)
    * Maybe. I don't know. I thought Lego: Batman would have done better. I guess someone has to finish top 5.

    Dark Phoenix (Feb 14)
    * Which is losing fans the fastest? The DCEU? Transformers? or X-men?

    -------------------
    I guess right now I'm thinking Lego2, FantasticBeasts2, Mary Poppins2, Creed2 and an unidentified sequel to be named later.

    I miss the good old days when we only had to pick 3 movies ...

  18. #18
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    I would drop the October movies. That pushes the decision point too early, not that all the info about the later movies is available at the time.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Venom (Oct 5)
    * Eh, doesn't really look like my thing. Is this a sequel to Life? I can't see this having the broad appeal to make the top 5.
    Venom is Sony’s first attempt at building their new Spiderman Universe that sorta doesn’t include Spider-Man. Marvel Studios is involved in this film but it is not part of the MCU. Venom, the character, is a villain who is sometimes an anti-hero in the Spiderman comic world. He was the bad guy (along with sandman and hobgoblin) in the third of the old Tobey McGuire Spidey films. In this film he is going to be more of an anti-hero and (I believe) the current Tom Holland Spiderman will not appear at all (though I bet they talk about him at least a little bit).

    It will be interesting to see how they handle Spiderman and the Snappening in this film, if at all.

    Jason “the trailers have been kinda weird thus far... I’m unsure of the tone of this film but it feels much darker than most other Spidey movies” Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It will be interesting to see how they handle Spiderman and the Snappening in this film, if at all.

    Jason “the trailers have been kinda weird thus far... I’m unsure of the tone of this film but it feels much darker than most other Spidey movies” Evans
    And the accent Tom Hardy is using for this role is...uhm...interesting.

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