What Happens to Early Entry Players?

[awhom111]

I have been collecting this information for a few years. Usually I put it on the draft thread, but with five years of data now, I think that its own thread might be more useful.

Others forthcoming, but here is 2015:


Keep in mind that some early entries are players who have been in school for four years and graduated, in which case starting a pro career, even below the NBA level, might actually be the best choice.

I have highlighted all of the players who had a full NBA salary in green and players who got drafted, but were not in the NBA, in orange.

Out of 46 players, 29 were drafted. 24 got that NBA paycheck. Three were domestic draft and stashed in the D League. Olivier Hanlan was overseas draft and stashed and reportedly made 150-200k. J.P. Tokoto took the minimum contract that the 76ers were obliged to offer him to keep his rights, but ended up cutting him so he made a minimal amount above his D League salary.

3 undrafted players ended up with full NBA season under their belts and 1 more was getting an NBA salary for part of the season. The interesting contrast is between the fates of the Harrisons. The one who drafted was paid D League salary all year while the undrafted one took home an NBA salary for the whole season.

Nobody appeared to wash out of basketball completely, which I guess is a good sign, although some could soon.

I excluded Satnam Singh because nobody seems to ever agree whether he is a domestic early entry or an international early entry.

[subzero02]

Interesting breakdown... a column that shows the remaining years of eligibility that each player had could be telling as well. I know that would take quite a bit of extra work though.

[Skitzle]

Interesting breakdown... a column that shows the remaining years of eligibility that each player had could be telling as well. I know that would take quite a bit of extra work though.

One Last thing would be number of NBA years played. Even If I guy washed how many seasons did he play for?

You're the man ahom!

Also IF you share each list as a read only google doc. I'D love to go over it and see if there are any other interesting things to take out.

[kcduke75]

Interesting breakdown... a column that shows the remaining years of eligibility that each player had could be telling as well. I know that would take quite a bit of extra work though.

Awesome

This should be required reading for all potential early entrants.

My wish list would be adding the school "attended" (quotes are for UNCheat and other non-schools)

[UrinalCake]

Awesome chart. A couple episodes ago on CBS's college b-ball podcast they were talking about how in many cases it is actually better to go undrafted than to be a mid-to-late second round pick. As you highlighted with the Harrison twins, if you get picked up even for part of the season, you can earn more money than if you had gotten drafted late and stashed in the D-league. D-league players get paid very little, definitely less than the equivalent of what you would receive on a full scholarship at Duke.

Another fun comparison I'd love to see would be how many players get called up from the D-league and get NBA contracts within the first, say, three years, versus the number of players who play internationally and are then able to make their way back into the League.

[awhom111]

Interesting breakdown... a column that shows the remaining years of eligibility that each player had could be telling as well. I know that would take quite a bit of extra work though.

Assuming Wikipedia is reliable, it is probably actually pretty simple.

One Last thing would be number of NBA years played. Even If I guy washed how many seasons did he play for?

You're the man ahom!

Also IF you share each list as a read only google doc. I'D love to go over it and see if there are any other interesting things to take out.

I may do that or I may just add them as attachments here. I went with the image for so it is easy to see right in the post and easier to deal with than the code tables that I used to use.

Awesome

This should be required reading for all potential early entrants.

My wish list would be adding the school "attended" (quotes are for UNCheat and other non-schools)

My old files have schools on them. I have pretty much cut that out for now. The first one is a fairly small images width-wise, but these get a lot bigger once more years get added and I do not want to make the zoom any smaller for the images. If useful, I can add them back in later.

[duke4ever19]

So that's what happened to J.P. Tokoto! My unc friends said he was going to be the "steal of the draft."

[johnb]

I was unable to recreate your terrific graphics, so this has to suffice.

Undrafted: 3/17 are getting NBA paychecks.
Drafted after 33: 0/5 are getting NBA paychecks.
Drafted top 33: 24/24 are getting NBA paychecks.

The moral of the story is that you should get drafted in the top 33, NOT get drafted after 33, and if you're undrafted be
a) a top 3 high school recruit with personal issues (Cliff Alexander),
b) have a twin who was drafted and didn't make the NBA (Harrison), or
c) be a Dominican who averaged 15.6 ppg for Westchester Community College (Montero).

If you're not one of those 3 people, and you're not picked in the top 33, you're out of NBA luck.

I would NOT necessarily say that the undrafted guys would be better off staying in college for their personal enrichment or that an additional year or two of NCAA games would mean that they'd have been drafted or drafted in the first round. I haven't seen evidence that college is always best for everyone. Quite a few NCAA football and basketball players are being propped up in school and don't really have a shot at graduating even if they stick around for 4 or 5 years. Many do benefit from college, which is one reason I'm comfortable with the flawed NCAA system, but way too many kids are functionally illiterate, etc, and--sadly--the problem of grinding academic futility is sanctioned and entrenched at many schools, and not just in Chapel Hill (which can at least fall back on its academic pretensions, Dean Smith's efforts with race relations, and quite a few counterexamples of bright/effortful guys who provide deceiving credence to a historically flawed and hypocritical system).

I'd add that only 1.1% of NCAA basketball players even get drafted, so that the effective percentage of those who make the NBA is more like 0.5%. And of those who make it, I'd guess that many/most were fairly clearly identified at age 16 as likely pro players. This would mean that 99.5% of the NCAA players who think they'll make the NBA won't be. http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/...onal-athletics

Anyway, here's the list redone list based on whether or not they are getting NBA paychecks:

NBA-YES
N (Cliff Alexander)
21
13
6
18
32
N (Aaron Harrison)
23
28
8
24
30
12
25
29
33
N (Luis Montero)
3
15
14
22
16
2
1
11
17
10


NBA NO
N
N
42
44 (Andrew Harrison)
51
N
N
48
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
58
N
N
N

[awhom111]

2014:


Color Code:
Green: Two full years
Yellow: One full year
Orange: Some NBA time (either a contract or training camp)
Blue: Drafted, but no NBA time

I am counting full years of salary as a full year even if the player gets waived. Because of the minimal salary impact, if someone on a full salary is waived and goes to the D League, I am not going to list their D League time. Some training camp stints carry salary with them and some do not.

An asterisk by the name of a country means the player was playing on a team that was not in the top division of the league there.

Of 42 players, 28 were drafted and 25 have played 2 full seasons. 4 have played at least 1 full season and 5 have had some NBA exposure.

DeAndre Daniels and Semaj Christon think that getting drafted is overrated. 2 years ago, they were probably thrilled to have their names called and thought they were living the dream. Now, neither has even made it to NBA training camp. Christon is a victim of the Thunder's giant roster crunch and may want to sign the minimum tender to at least force them to waive him and leave him to try to see if there are any other options. Daniels got injured, but maybe he'll get a shot soon.

Of the players, who have not been involved in any NBA teams, here is the breakdown:
-The two unknowns both declared from the junior college level, so it is possible that their basketball careers were winding down anyway.
-Ta'Quan Zimmerman went to Canadian college after junior college because the academics were never going to work out in the NCAA, so this was probably his best option.
-Chane Behanen was kicked out of Louisville so income wise this was no worse than sitting out to transfer.
-LaQuinton Ross has had a solid overseas career. His outcome is probably no worse than if he had stay in school longer.
-Jahii Carson has been very disappointing. It is hard to know if more time at Arizona State could have helped or not or possibly saved Herb Sendak at least.

[awhom111]

2013:


Color Coding:
Green: 3 full years
Yellow: At least 2 full years
Orange: At least 1 full year
Blue: NBA exposure, but no full season

I went ahead and noted the players who got their fourth year options picked up last fall, which is 18 of the 45 players. 3 more have made it all three years so far.

I will only list the American semipro leagues if they are the only leagues in which the player plays in a given season. You can earn D League level money that way if you are good, but it is generally not significant compared to any other professional gig, so I have decided that it does not add anything.

If C.J. Leslie could stop trying to play in every basketball league in the world, it would be of great help to my trying to keep the width down. Following the guidance from above, I did not even list his time in the UBA this season.

The Spurs finally signed Deshaun Thomas for training camp last offseason, so all domestic drafted players have had their NBA fates resolved one way or another. He had a decent couple of years overseas.

A reminder that some of the players have already completed four years of school before declaring and may have already graduated even if they still had eligibility left.

[awhom111]

2012:


I am running out of colors:
Green: 4 full seasons
Yellow: At least 3 full seasons
Orange: At least 2 full seasons
Red (please let me know if this is too difficult to read): At least 1 full season
Blue: Some NBA exposure, but no full seasons

Out of 47 entries, with some of them likely knowing that being drafted was not possible, 22 have made it through four years of the NBA and towards that second contract. 10 more have played at least one full NBA season.

At some point, I just gave up on trying to figure out Gerardo Suero's second season. Players in Latin American hop from country to country often because none of the leagues run particularly long.

I always search the players who have never played. Once in a while, that pays off as Erik Austin joined his local ABA team this season after apparently not playing anywhere else after junior college.

The Jonathon Simmons story is pretty amazing as he basically played very low-level basketball in his first year out of college and then just kept improving in the D League before looking like he belongs in the NBA.

Terrell Stoglin is the person most responsible for the width of the graphic. Now that he's a favorite player in basketball-mad Lebanon, maybe he will settle down.

[sagegrouse]

2012:


Terrell Stoglin is the person most responsible for the width of the graphic. Now that he's a favorite player in basketball-mad Lebanon, maybe he will settle down.

You could use that staple of tax returns, "Various," when describing a category with many entries.

[awhom111]

2011:


This is the last one that I have.

Colors:
Light Green: 5 full years
Dark Green (Shelvin Mack only): 4 full years
Yellow: 3 full years
Orange: 2 full years
Red: 1 full year
Blue: NBA exposure, but no full years.

I put an asterisk for players who played overseas during the lockout, which was the first year for this draft class. Vucevic got the chance to play in Montenegro while Smith played in Mexico.

Five years mean a second NBA contract for sure. Out of 42 players, including joke entries, that amounts to 16 players. 1 more has made it 4 years, 5 have played 3, 5 have played 2, and 3 have played 1.

Dan Kelm's joke entry lives on forever. For those who do not know, he was an NAIA player who was transferring to an NCAA school for academics who decided to declare before officially ending his athletic career.

Unknown can mean a wide range of things, including playing at a low enough level of organized basketball that I cannot find any information about it on the internet or just retiring altogether. In the case of Jereme Richmond, it includes jail time.

On that front, it appears that only nine players did not have any organized involvement in basketball this season. When you include Kelm and other joke entries, that is not actually that bad.

Two guys are among the one year category, but with wildly different paths. Jordan Williams got picked and had a full contract for his first year and a partial guarantee for his second. He did not end up playing a game for that second season and a summer league cameo was his only play after what would have been his senior season at Maryland. He may have made $800,000 but one wonders if there was a different path for him that would have helped long term. Willie Reed scrapped through two partial years in which he appeared in no NBA games and then had a worldwind third year. He finally got his full year in the fifth season after his draft, taking advantage of his partial years to have a higher veteran's minimum amount and finally making his debut.

[Skitzle]

Of the 42 how many played in the NBA this year.
Example the 3full years guys, some could be out of the league but others could have spent 2 years in the dleague but be currently playing

[awhom111]

Of the 42 how many played in the NBA this year.
Example the 3full years guys, some could be out of the league but others could have spent 2 years in the dleague but be currently playing

Looks like it is 19, with 2 more playing part of the year. That means that only Willie Reed and Shelvin Mack had a full NBA salary this season without having four full NBA years of experience before the season. Mack has practically been a five year guy with a partial NBA season in his second year. Reed as discussed had spent two partial seasons in the league with plenty of D League time before having his big break.

[Skitzle]

Looks like it is 19, with 2 more playing part of the year. That means that only Willie Reed and Shelvin Mack had a full NBA salary this season without having four full NBA years of experience before the season. Mack has practically been a five year guy with a partial NBA season in his second year. Reed as discussed had spent two partial seasons in the league with plenty of D League time before having his big break.

The average length of an NBA career is 4.5 years. So having just a hair under 50% of early entire make it 5 seems totally on part.

I wonder how this translates by University.

Awhom? Want a new research project

Given t

[awhom111]

I have been working on updating these and compiling the monster 2016 file.

Do people want me to start with 2011 or 2016?

Also, these are getting bigger and not so optimal for the board software. Should I both embed an image and attach it as a file for better readability?

[awhom111]

I will start with 2011:



Color coding:
Light Green: Full NBA contracts all six years
Dark Green: Five years of full NBA contracts (Shelvin Mack only)
Yellow: Three years of full NBA contracts
Orange: Two years of full NBA contracts
Red: One year of a full NBA contract
Blue: At least a partial NBA contract

Notes:
-Counting Shelvin Mack, who has practically been a continuous NBA player, 18 of the 42 players who declared in this year have been in the NBA the entire time
-It is interesting that nobody has exactly four full contract years
-The separation betwen the upper end and lower end will probably grow, because other than DeAndre Liggins, nobody else is really likely to return in future seasons
-I have done some cleanup on prior years, both because some players joined summer leagues after I had compiled this last year and also to improve consistency in using the Full* designation for players who received a full NBA salary, but were not on a roster for the whole season
-Again, a * after a country indicates that the team is not in the top league in that country
-We are now at eight players who were not playing any organized basketball that I could find in the past season, which is pretty decent considering that a few entries were jokes

2011.jpg

[awhom111]

2012:


Color-coding:
Green: 5 full years of NBA contracts
Yellow: 4 full years of NBA contracts
Orange: 3 full years of NBA contracts
Red: 2 full years of NBA contracts
Blue: Partial NBA contracts only

Notes:
-Nobody only had only 1 full NBA season, which was interesting and good for my desire to not run out of colors
-18 of 47 have had NBA careers the entire time and only 2 others finished this season in the NBA besides them
-I could not find any evidence of 8 guys playing organized basketball anywhere in the past season
-RIP Fab Melo

2012.jpg

[awhom111]

2013:


Color coding:
Green: 4 full years of NBA contracts
Yellow: 3 full years of NBA contracts
Orange: 2 full years of NBA contracts
Red: 1 full NBA contract
Blue: Partial NBA contracts only

Notes:
-20 of 45 players have had full NBA salaries all of the years, although Anthony Bennett seems unlikely to stretch it to a fifth
-C.J. Leslie settled down a bit, so he no longer causes the page to get wider
-Continuing the Pack trend, Lorenzo Brown was cheated out of being able to claim 4 years of partial contracts because the Pistons forgot an obscure rule
-Only 4 players did not play any organized basketball that I could find, which seems pretty good

2013.jpg