2021 Men's Basketball Recruiting Thread

[sagegrouse]

sigh...how did this team NOT win it all

Injuries.

One effing shoe!

[jipops]

sigh...how did this team NOT win it all

A very disjointed half court offense. Remember this team was one missed tip in from losing in the 2nd round.

[Bluedog]

Injuries.

I was going to say FTs...

When tried to make, missed. When tried to intentionally miss, made...

But FTs were an achilles heel all season. And we didn't get it to Zion inside nearly enough and had poor entry passes. His usage rate should have been MUCH higher...

[SilkyJ]

I was going to say FTs...

When tried to make, missed. When tried to intentionally miss, made...

But FTs were an achilles heel all season. And we didn't get it to Zion inside nearly enough and had poor entry passes. His usage rate should have been MUCH higher...

A very disjointed half court offense. Remember this team was one missed tip in from losing in the 2nd round.

It was Turnovers first and 3pt/FT shooting second, IMO. We had an all-time offense and defense (top 10 in Kenpom in both), but we were among the all-time worst Duke teams in TOs (and pretty poor all time in 3 point shooting...dont know on FT% but my guess is not great).

17 TO vs Sparty in the Elite 8, including several off of set inbound plays, which is unacceptable for a high level basketball team.

[TywinBlue]

March 31, 2019
Michigan State 68 Duke 67

Field Goals
Zion 10-19
RJ 7-17
Cam 2-8
Tre 2-5
Javin 5-5

and 8-13 from the free throw line

SMH !

Too soon ?

[JasonEvans]

A new name has cropped up... 4-star 2021 PG Jaylen Blakes

Coach K, not playing nice with his former assistants... Blakes (who is a fabulous student and was looking at Tommy Amaker and Harvard) got an offer from Pitt a few days ago and there was lots of talk about him going to Capel (Illinois also wants him too). But now Duke is sniffing around the kid. No word if Duke has formally made an offer but this seems like a logical fit. Blakes would be a solid backup to Roach and fills a real need for Duke.

Here's an article that really makes him seem like a wonderful kid. Comes from Blair Academy and this quote from Blair's coach really stuck out to me:
https://pittsburghsportsnow.com/2021...jaylen-blakes/

“He is one of the top two or three leaders that I have ever had here. I have had over 70 division one guys, we have won a million games, and after Royal Ivey and Luol Deng, he might be the best leader I have ever had here. Both of those guys played in the NBA for ten years. He just has a tremendous ability to will himself and his teammates into doing what is needed to win games.”

After reading that, I really want this kid!!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

A new name has cropped up... 4-star 2021 PG Jaylen Blakes

Coach K, not playing nice with his former assistants... Blakes (who is a fabulous student and was looking at Tommy Amaker and Harvard) got an offer from Pitt a few days ago and there was lots of talk about him going to Capel (Illinois also wants him too). But now Duke is sniffing around the kid. No word if Duke has formally made an offer but this seems like a logical fit. Blakes would be a solid backup to Roach and fills a real need for Duke.

Here's an article that really makes him seem like a wonderful kid. Comes from Blair Academy and this quote from Blair's coach really stuck out to me:
https://pittsburghsportsnow.com/2021...jaylen-blakes/



After reading that, I really want this kid!!

Great find Jason - thanks! Sounds like a perfect fit for us assuming he is OK with the role he would play at Duke. If my math is correct, he overlapped for one year in HS with Keenan Worthington, who also went to Blair. I always get a kick out of the fact that their coach is named Joe Mantegna.

[DavidBenAkiva]

A new name has cropped up... 4-star 2021 PG Jaylen Blakes

Coach K, not playing nice with his former assistants... Blakes (who is a fabulous student and was looking at Tommy Amaker and Harvard) got an offer from Pitt a few days ago and there was lots of talk about him going to Capel (Illinois also wants him too). But now Duke is sniffing around the kid. No word if Duke has formally made an offer but this seems like a logical fit. Blakes would be a solid backup to Roach and fills a real need for Duke.

Here's an article that really makes him seem like a wonderful kid. Comes from Blair Academy and this quote from Blair's coach really stuck out to me:
https://pittsburghsportsnow.com/2021...jaylen-blakes/



After reading that, I really want this kid!!

Very interesting. I have been expecting or maybe just hoping to hear about a backup PG option like this, in the top 50-100 range (Blakes checks in at #101 in the 247Sports Composite). It makes so much more sense to me that the program would want a high school recruit over a transfer. Maybe it's vice versa. Most transfers want an expanded role, more playing time. Duke isn't going to offer them that. They can say to a kid like Blakes: "Hey, you can be a part of a top team throughout your college career and if you work hard can carve out a role on the team. Just look at what Jordan Goldwire or Tyler Thornton did." Having roster continuity and depth at the point guard position would be great.

I did a little digging and found a somewhat recent video from his junior year in high school. He's got a bit of a hitch in his jumper. I wonder if he can hit that off the dribble or is more of a set shooter. Probably the latter. He is long, with a 6'8" wingspan at around 6'2" in height. Being +6 in wingspan is an outlier, close to the 95th percentile or better for college and the NBA. That's a plus for defensive upside. He appears to be able to make his layups in transition. There's a lot to like here.

[simplyluvin]

Any word on Patrick Baldwin? I heard any day now more than a week ago. I've only seen one more prognosticator go towards UW Milwaukee over the weekend. Not holding my breath here, but also hoping for a Zion-like surprise. Could he be waiting for Hurt to decide?

[OZZIE4DUKE]

He is long, with a 6'8" wingspan at around 6'2" in height. Being +6 in wingspan is an outlier, close to the 95th percentile or better for college and the NBA. That's a plus for defensive upside. He appears to be able to make his layups in transition. There's a lot to like here.

Maybe he's still growing and will be 6'6+" by the time he graduates!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Any word on Patrick Baldwin? I heard any day now more than a week ago. I've only seen one more prognosticator go towards UW Milwaukee over the weekend. Not holding my breath here, but also hoping for a Zion-like surprise. Could he be waiting for Hurt to decide?

The consensus seems to be that neither Hurt nor Baldwin will be playing basketball in Durham next year. I'm setting my expectations for that and would be pleasantly surprised if either decides they want to be on the Blue Devils roster next year.

[English]

I listened to the Woj Pod over the weekend and his guest was Jonathan Givony of ESPN--I recommend giving it a listen because there is some good info in it about the OAD rule, the G League Ignite Team, the general impact of the G League on college recruiting, the 2021 NBA Draft, etc.

What struck me (with relevance to this thread) is that Givony brought up TyTy Washington. He says that TyTy is legitimately a top-10 recruit this year, but that because he started so low (100+) in the rankings, that scouts weren't going to move him all the way up that high in such a short period. Look for TyTy to continue to climb. He also mentioned that the G League Ignite was going to pursue TyTy, although his understanding is that isn't the route Washington is expected to go at this point. Obviously, things could change. He didn't mention Duke specifically, but he expects TyTy to be a major impact get for some program and he was effusive talking about his game.

[SouthernDukie]

The consensus seems to be that neither Hurt nor Baldwin will be playing basketball in Durham next year. I'm setting my expectations for that and would be pleasantly surprised if either decides they want to be on the Blue Devils roster next year.

It won’t be a disaster if neither of them are with us next season, but we’d need to be healthy all year. Injuries would be a real problem without any legit depth. Having said that, I’d sure love to see one of them on the Duke 2021-2022 roster.

[budwom]

Blakes sounds like he'd be a fine addition, but I'm far from certain how much he satisfies our need for a backup PG next year...that might be a tad ambitious.

[Kedsy]

It was Turnovers first and 3pt/FT shooting second, IMO. We had an all-time offense and defense (top 10 in Kenpom in both), but we were among the all-time worst Duke teams in TOs (and pretty poor all time in 3 point shooting...dont know on FT% but my guess is not great).

17 TO vs Sparty in the Elite 8, including several off of set inbound plays, which is unacceptable for a high level basketball team.

We were bad against Michigan State in turnovers (and in forcing turnovers), and turnovers was probably what lost us that one game, but for the season what you're saying isn't really true. Duke had the 75th-best turnover percentage in the country in 2018-19, and our season percentage was among Duke's lowest 10 turnover percentages of all time (well, since 1987, anyway, when the stat began to be calculated). While it has been pointed out to me that turnover percentages in general have gone down in recent years, which might skew the numbers, I don't think it can be reasonably said that the 2019 Duke team was one of Duke's all-time worst at turnovers. We turned it over at the same rate as the 2018 Duke team and a lower rate than the 2020 or 2021 Duke teams, in any event.

It was Duke's worst three-point shooting team ever (again, since 1987), by a lot. It was Duke's worst free throw shooting team (by percentage) since 1998.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

We were bad against Michigan State in turnovers (and in forcing turnovers), and turnovers was probably what lost us that one game, but for the season what you're saying isn't really true. Duke had the 75th-best turnover percentage in the country in 2018-19, and our season percentage was among Duke's lowest 10 turnover percentages of all time (well, since 1987, anyway, when the stat began to be calculated). While it has been pointed out to me that turnover percentages in general have gone down in recent years, which might skew the numbers, I don't think it can be reasonably said that the 2019 Duke team was one of Duke's all-time worst at turnovers. We turned it over at the same rate as the 2018 Duke team and a lower rate than the 2020 or 2021 Duke teams, in any event.

It was Duke's worst three-point shooting team ever (again, since 1987), by a lot. It was Duke's worst free throw shooting team (by percentage) since 1998.

I'm as bad an offender as everyone else, but can we stay on topic? Thanks.

[jimsumner]

Blakes sounds like he'd be a fine addition, but I'm far from certain how much he satisfies our need for a backup PG next year...that might be a tad ambitious.

At 101 he's ranked a lot higher than either Thornton or Goldwire. I suspect he would be a valuable backup next season. But would he be good enough to develop into a starter on a top-10 program? And would he be comfortable with the expectation that Duke will almost certainly pursue top-20-level point guards in the classes behind him?

[tommy]

I listened to the Woj Pod over the weekend and his guest was Jonathan Givony of ESPN--I recommend giving it a listen because there is some good info in it about the OAD rule, the G League Ignite Team, the general impact of the G League on college recruiting, the 2021 NBA Draft, etc.

What struck me (with relevance to this thread) is that Givony brought up TyTy Washington. He says that TyTy is legitimately a top-10 recruit this year, but that because he started so low (100+) in the rankings, that scouts weren't going to move him all the way up that high in such a short period. Look for TyTy to continue to climb. He also mentioned that the G League Ignite was going to pursue TyTy, although his understanding is that isn't the route Washington is expected to go at this point. Obviously, things could change. He didn't mention Duke specifically, but he expects TyTy to be a major impact get for some program and he was effusive talking about his game.

What I also found intriguing from Givony on that pod was his strong feeling that the NBA GM's, Presidents, and scouts much prefer the G-League environment to college in terms of their ability to evaluate players, and that they feel the G-League experience is far superior to college in just about all instances. He cited things like the fact that the players are competing against far superior competition than they would in college, against guys who almost all were very good college players who are playing hard as they are desperately trying to make the league but are on the edge of making it or not, the fact that most of them are older -- 23-24-25-26 years old and fully mature men, the NBA-level coaching the G league guys are getting, things like that. The evaluators can see them up close on a regular basis against guys better than college competition, and can really see how they measure up against the kinds of players more like NBA players than most college players are.

Also, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga are going to be top 5 draft picks this year. As the G league recruits more and more of the top players -- and recruiting they are -- they are going to be able to cite what Givony said, plus the high lottery selections of Green and Kuminga (and others to come going forward) to lure more top players to the G League and away from going to college at all.

[jimsumner]

What I also found intriguing from Givony on that pod was his strong feeling that the NBA GM's, Presidents, and scouts much prefer the G-League environment to college in terms of their ability to evaluate players, and that they feel the G-League experience is far superior to college in just about all instances. He cited things like the fact that the players are competing against far superior competition than they would in college, against guys who almost all were very good college players who are playing hard as they are desperately trying to make the league but are on the edge of making it or not, the fact that most of them are older -- 23-24-25-26 years old and fully mature men, the NBA-level coaching the G league guys are getting, things like that. The evaluators can see them up close on a regular basis against guys better than college competition, and can really see how they measure up against the kinds of players more like NBA players than most college players are.

Also, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga are going to be top 5 draft picks this year. As the G league recruits more and more of the top players -- and recruiting they are -- they are going to be able to cite what Givony said, plus the high lottery selections of Green and Kuminga (and others to come going forward) to lure more top players to the G League and away from going to college at all.

Did he discuss the fact that talents like Green and Kuminga could have gone to a high-profile college program and received significantly more exposure, therefore entering the NBA with higher name recognition and a better chance to garner endorsements and build the "brand" earlier?

[JasonEvans]

Also, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga are going to be top 5 draft picks this year. As the G league recruits more and more of the top players -- and recruiting they are -- they are going to be able to cite what Givony said, plus the high lottery selections of Green and Kuminga (and others to come going forward) to lure more top players to the G League and away from going to college at all.

It will be interesting to see who the G-League poaches away from college programs this spring/summer. Kuminga and Green never signed with anyone, but Isaiah Todd (Michigan) and Dashien Nix (UCLA) were expected to be significant parts of major programs this season.

Most folks expect uncommitted recruits Jaden Hardy (#2 in 247) and Michael Foster (#14) to take the G-League route from the class of 2021, but you can bet there will be some kids who are already committed elsewhere who end up taking the G-League offer. My bet is that Shareef Abdur-Rahim is probably starting to reach out to high schoolers right about now.

Did he discuss the fact that talents like Green and Kuminga could have gone to a high-profile college program and received significantly more exposure, therefore entering the NBA with higher name recognition and a better chance to garner endorsements and build the "brand" earlier?

Yup. Far more people saw DJ Steward play this year than saw Jonathan Kuminga. Right now, Steward has much better name recognition than Jalen Green does (though Kuminga and Green will shoot up when they get picked in the first half of the lottery).