2021 Men's Basketball Recruiting Thread

[RetireVergaJersey]

I hope Duke can sign an underclassman guard transfer [preferably a true point guard] who is content getting 12-16 minutes a game this year but knows he will have a more expanded role next year. Duke may not have a single returning guard in 2022.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I doubt Griffin will play much (or at all?) at SG next year. I'd expect Moore/Roach and either Keels or another transfer (or both) to play the PG and SG spots. Assuming of course that Moore and Roach return.



Ellis would add depth, but I don't think he adds quality. Especially not in terms of defense against 1s and 2s.



Agreed (obviously). Hopefully we can find someone to fill that role. I just don't really think Ellis is that guy.

Now, if we don't get Keels, then Ellis and his 3pt shooting become more relevant. But if we get Keels, then I think the guy we need is a guy who has shown he can guard well on the perimeter.

Moore isn't good at guarding quick players. He sometimes struggles with 3s, not to mention quicker 1s and 2s. Moore is at his best when he's guarding 4s, but that is unlikely next year.

There aren't a lot of 1/2 defensive players next year, with or without Keels. Roach was kinda poor this year and will improve, but he's not a stopper.

And you're underselling Boogie. He's got a defensive box plus/minus of 3.0 this season. For comparison, Steward had a 0.7.

Do I think Boogie is the best available player for Duke? No. But given our lack of backcourt options, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

[DoubleBlue]

Baker could break out. He has had flashes. Confidence is a strange thing.

Jack White never recovered from his bout of lost confidence. (and I hope he recovers from his achiles injury)

[jimsumner]

It won't be DJ and I'm pessimistic about Wendell, Moore and Coleman. Getting Keels would help

GoDuke!

You're really down on Moore's shooting, aren't you. You're pessimistic about him twice.

Did you mean Griffin?

[Dukehk]

Is Keels making his decision today?

Hopefully the allure of pairing up with Roach again will put us above the rest.

[gumbomoop]

Is Keels making his decision today?

Hopefully the allure of pairing up with Roach again will put us above the rest.

Think it’s between Geico HS Tourney semifinals this aft. Best guess would be 4-4:15 EDT on ESPN2.

[CDu]

You're really down on Moore's shooting, aren't you. You're pessimistic about him twice.

Did you mean Griffin?

I was guessing he meant Roach.

[UrinalCake]

Roach and Keels would be a fine backcourt, don’t know how good of a defender Keels will be but we’ve kind of gotten used to that. Then the question is whether Griffin or Moore would come off the bench. I actually think it’s Keels that would come off the bench but I guess I should wait until after the announcement before starting a minutes discussion.

[lotusland]

Roach and Keels would be a fine backcourt, don’t know how good of a defender Keels will be but we’ve kind of gotten used to that. Then the question is whether Griffin or Moore would come off the bench. I actually think it’s Keels that would come off the bench but I guess I should wait until after the announcement before starting a minutes discussion.

It’s never too early but we should wait to see if either Baker or Roach declares for the draft before any pie wagers.

[Nugget]

I think Goldwire probably wanted the chance to start and star in in his last go at college ball. So I doubt Steward's decision would have made a difference. And Goldwire probably knew anyway.

Yep, no doubt he knew. And, obviously, I'm not going to claim Jordan doesn't know best for him what it means to have a "chance to start and star."

But, it's not crazy to me to see a world where he might beat out Keels for a starting spot (and/or a "finishing" spot in big games), and either way if he knew DJ was leaving that would have meant Jordan would have continued to play a lot -- and he got 28 mpg this year! (though I suppose that's bit skewed by Johnson leaving the team and Coach K going with more 3 guard rotations this season than he likely will with AJ Griffin on the team next year).

It's just difficult to see how he decided that a 90% chance to start and play 30 mpg and shoot a lot at a place like Eastern Kentucky or Georgia St., who will in all likelihood not even make the tournament, is more enticing than having a 75% chance to be a meaningful contributor (and at least a 33% chance to start) for a Duke team lined up to be Top 10 next year and to play a big role in an NCAA tournament run.

[SkyBrickey]

Yep, no doubt he knew. And, obviously, I'm not going to claim Jordan doesn't know best for him what it means to have a "chance to start and star."

But, it's not crazy to me to see a world where he might beat out Keels for a starting spot (and/or a "finishing" spot in big games), and either way if he knew DJ was leaving that would have meant Jordan would have continued to play a lot -- and he got 28 mpg this year! (though I suppose that's bit skewed by Johnson leaving the team and Coach K going with more 3 guard rotations this season than he likely will with AJ Griffin on the team next year).

It's just difficult to see how he decided that a 90% chance to start and play 30 mpg and shoot a lot at a place like Eastern Kentucky or Georgia St., who will in all likelihood not even make the tournament, is more enticing than having a 75% chance to be a meaningful contributor (and at least a 33% chance to start) for a Duke team lined up to be Top 10 next year and to play a big role in an NCAA tournament run.

I agree with all this. If JG knew about DJ leaving, then I'm actually more surprised by the JG decision than by the DJ decision. JG is known and loved and valued at Duke. His role next year could be at least as large as this year on a championship caliber team. If he's looking for a professional path, I'm sure Coach K can get him an audition in the G league or tryouts overseas. Disappointing - maybe JG will reconsider as pieces fall into place and he gets a look at what other opportunities are out there.

We could use his ball handling and especially his ability to lock up quick opposing guards. Those two qualities are the achilles heels of this team as it's shaping up now (assuming we get Keels in a couple of hours).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Roach and Keels would be a fine backcourt, don’t know how good of a defender Keels will be but we’ve kind of gotten used to that. Then the question is whether Griffin or Moore would come off the bench. I actually think it’s Keels that would come off the bench but I guess I should wait until after the announcement before starting a minutes discussion.

Griffin isn't coming off the bench. He's RSCI #7.

Roach and Keels would be a nice offensive pairing (Roach's speed and drivability coupled with Keels's shooting and size). But I suspect on defensive, this pairing is really bad. Roach wasn't good this year, and defense isn't exactly Keels's calling card. Maybe he ends up like Tre Jones (surprise defender), but the smart money is on him somewhat struggling (like lots of freshman).

I have no idea if it's Coach K's offensive magic, Coach K's complicated defensive schemes, or HS players generally sucking at defense, but the rule of thumb I'm accustomed to at Duke is freshman tend to be better than you think offensively and worse than you think defensively.

[CDu]

I agree with all this. If JG knew about DJ leaving, then I'm actually more surprised by the JG decision than by the DJ decision. JG is known and loved and valued at Duke. His role next year could be at least as large as this year on a championship caliber team. If he's looking for a professional path, I'm sure Coach K can get him an audition in the G league or tryouts overseas. Disappointing - maybe JG will reconsider as pieces fall into place and he gets a look at what other opportunities are out there.

We could use his ball handling and especially his ability to lock up quick opposing guards. Those two qualities are the achilles heels of this team as it's shaping up now (assuming we get Keels in a couple of hours).

Obviously we'll almost certainly never know now, but I would say he was not at all likely to play as big a role next year as he was this year. Especially if Keels comes. With Griffin and Banchero coming in and being on target to play more minutes than Hurt and Johnson, and with Roach, Moore, and Williams presumably playing more minutes than they did this year, it was always going to be tight in terms of minutes. If Keels comes, that logjam gets even bigger.

I'd have trouble seeing Goldwire as more than a 15-20 mpg guy next year if he'd stayed at Duke.

Note: this is, of course, pending the decisions of Williams, Moore, and Roach (I'm assuming Hurt will go). Obviously if any of those guys go then the calculus changes. But if any of those guys go, I'd expect us to dive harder into the transfer market anyway, or else we'd likely not be championship caliber.

[MarkD83]

Griffin isn't coming off the bench. He's RSCI #7.

He’s not coming off the bench because Duke right now has only 7 recruited players on the roster if Hurt goes pro. If Keels commits that’s 8 recruited players.

(Keels)
Griffin
Banchero
Roach
Williams
Coleman
Moore
Baker

[CDu]

He’s not coming off the bench because Duke right now has only 7 recruited players on the roster if Hurt goes pro. If Keels commits that’s 8 recruited players.

(Keels)
Griffin
Banchero
Roach
Williams
Coleman
Moore
Baker

Eh, Griffin's not coming off the bench with or without Keels. It would be one of Moore/Roach/Keels that comes off the bench if Keels picks Duke and Hurt goes pro.

[TKG]

He’s not coming off the bench because Duke right now has only 7 recruited players on the roster if Hurt goes pro.

Devastating news for the annual “Minutes” thread.

[MarkD83]

Devastating news for the annual “Minutes” thread.

Don’t underestimate how much we can discuss minutes😊. If there were only 5 recruited players we would have 20 or more pages of discussion

[jv001]

You're really down on Moore's shooting, aren't you. You're pessimistic about him twice.

Did you mean Griffin?

Cdu was correct. I meant Roach. I think Moore shot the ball much better as the season went on but I don't know if he can become a very good 3 point shooter. He is however a very good FT shooter. So I guess he has it in him. Just needs more confidence.

GoDuke!

[revmel53]

I think you must not have a good sense of the type of player Keels is. If you are looking for someone who can “respond to backcourt pressure, run the team, and pressure the other team’s guards, or defend much smaller guards,” you need to be looking somewhere else. That isn’t Keels’ game at all. He is a bigger SG, and a scorer not a floor general.

I definitely still want Keels, but he isn’t going to help us with the PG and floor leadership roles.

I know exactly what type of player Keels is. I think you must have missed the most important things I said. Guards lead teams to championships. We now have only one, but have not had even two well-rounded guards this entire year. Floor general? Everyone on this board should know that Keels is not a PG; but he is a guard, who can respond to backcourt pressure, dribble and pass out of pressure, and, because of his position, be expected to defend and pressure other teams' guards. IMO he still remains a make or break get for next year's team.

[MChambers]

Devastating news for the annual “Minutes” thread.

Should save some of us from predicting that this will be the year Coach K goes 10 deep!