Roach has been playing as somewhere between a scoring guard (Frank Jackson comes to mind) and more traditional point guard on this team. If you look at his assist and TO rates, he's clearly more inclined to setup a teammate than Jackson was but not quite at the same rate as Grayson Allen as a junior or senior when Allen was the defacto PG for long stretches of the season. I think Roach has the tools to be an effective point guard. He can break down his defender and get into the paint. But he mostly does that with an empty post. There's no one to receive the dump-off. He kicks it out on occasion, but then Duke will swing it around to find an open shooter. Duke is playing without a true point guard this year. I expect that will change next year.
For starters, having Paolo Banchero as a focus of the offense is going to help a lot. He is going to draw a ton of defensive attention and create driving lanes and open shots for teammates as well as defensive breakdowns that Roach and others can exploit. We could also see a little pick-and-roll action with Banchero as the screener. Coach K doesn't run that action much, but Banchero is built for it with his size, skillset, passing vision, and overall basketball IQ. That's what he's going to do in the NBA. Anyway, this current Duke team doesn't have many lob threats outside of Mark Williams. Next year will have Williams as well as Banchero and Griffin. We could see Brakefield used as a lob threat more next season, too. I think these, along with a more traditional summer experience, will setup Roach to be more effective running the team as the PG.
I hope you’re right, but I just don’t think Moore has shown the necessary overall offensive skillset to potentially be considered a high-level player one day. I guess it could depend upon how one defines “high-level player”.
Sure, a dramatic transformation could occur between now and his senior year, but I haven’t seen much evidence of the presence of the necessary building blocks to give that a chance at actually happening. Again, hope I’m wrong.
Last edited by Steven43; 02-27-2021 at 12:52 PM.
I suppose I should clarify what I mean by "high-level player." I don't see him becoming the focus of the offense or a 20+ point scorer. He is now and I hope and expect that he will be an even better two-way player. He gets a ton of crap from Duke fans for not being this or not being that. What he is is a versatile player that can defend a ton of positions, create for others, and score a little. Since the long break following the game at Notre Dame, Moore has been a completely different player. His 2021-only stats:
11.1 pts/4.9 rbs/3.0 ast/0.9 stl/1.6 tov on shooting splits of .454 FG%/.319 3P%/.821 FT%. That's really good in my opinion. He's got a nearly 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio as a secondary ballhandler. He's scoring relatively efficiently, and he provides defensive versatility. His numbers for 2021 only are not that different than Justise Winslow's impact. Winslow gave a little more blocks and steals, hit his 3's at a higher rate (although I am not convinced he was a better shooter at that time and his early NBA career suggested as much - he's improved a ton in the last few years when healthy), but didn't offer as much creation for teammates.
If all we get from Moore is a better version of this 2021 version, he'll be an integral player on the team and one of teh best glue guys in the entire country. If his shot improves to something closer to 35-38% from 3, then he's going to be really valuable. I think that's the skillset that will allow him to reach that next level. If and when he gets a more consistent jumper, he has the skills and playmaking ability to attack off the closeout. When a defender runs at him, he has shown the ability to get past that man to break down the defense and find an open teammate. We've seen him do this already. He needs to finish around the rim better, too, but that's another element.
If he refines his game and has a big junior year improvement, he could become a high-level player in my view, the third- or fourth-leading scorer and defensive anchor on a top-5 team. I'd like to see him make that jump because he's really close to it now.
I think so, but it will be difficult for him to do that next season with Paolo, AJ, and then the returning players Duke is projected to have.
One of the things holding back Wendell is his lack of explosiveness. He's going to have to rely more on craft and skill and that comes with experience. In my mind, his best bet to be an All-ACC type player is as a senior, in 2022-23. I'm practically drooling over the potential to watch a team with the following roster:
PG: JR Roach, FR Bronny James
SG: SO Keels
SF: SR Moore (RS-SR Baker? - no idea if he gets an extra year)
PF: JR Brakefield, JR Coleman
C: JR Williams
Add to that group a couple of more FR, especially at the G/F position and a FR C and you've got a really intriguing roster. I don't know if Williams is going to last that long at Duke, but I'd like to see it. On that team, I think Moore is the captain and a potential All-ACC 2nd or 3rd team player and DPOY candidate.
Has the Baldwin ship sailed unquestionably?
Agreed. There is another factor at play in all of this. Baldwin Sr isn't just his father. He's also a person that is trying to maintain his job. If I could sell my employer on the idea that my top 5-rated son could play for me, but my contract ends in a couple of years, I would want to milk that expectation to maximize my value. Other bidders, like Northwestern, where I used to coach, might be very interested in this possibility of my coaching and my son being part of that team for a year. Anyway, UW Milwaukee, think about it.
That is, in my mind, the main reason why Baldwin, Jr. is dragging out his recruitment. It helps his father. Rumors that he wants to go to Duke don't help dear old dad. Of course, it could be total speculation on my part and he just doesn't know and doesn't have to know right now. If we want to deal in conspiracy theories, and Baldwin gets into a bidding war (assuming NW is ready to move on from Chris Collins - which is a big if), we could be waiting until shortly after the UW Milwaukee season ends before knowing for sure. They play tonight against Wright State in the Horizon League Tournament. The season is over for them with a loss. One possible outcome of this whole situation is that Baldwin Sr gets a new contract or a raise or something and then PBJ feels free to follow his heart or gut or whatever body part makes the decision for him. That organ may be invested in Milwaukee, but it might not be. We'll see.
Appreciate the responses gents.
I empathize with Baldwin Jr., honestly. At that age, with those circumstances, I really have no idea what I would have done.
Interesting thought and of course the father's employment situation could play into this. But why would Northwestern be so interested in Baldwin, Sr., understanding that he is a former assistant there? His record at Milwaukee has frankly been pretty mediocre. Has he shown he's fit for a Power 5 head job? Not so sure about that. Plus, Pat Jr. has not included Northwestern in the schools from which he is choosing. Of course he is always free to add them and go wherever he wants, but it would certainly be a pretty major change of course.
Where it makes more sense is for Baldwin Sr. to lobby Milwaukee for a contract extension (he has only one year left) on the grounds that he's bringing in his superstar son this coming year, so good things for the program lie ahead. I don't know if that would be enough for me, if I was the AD there, to grant an extension given the fact that Jr. is a very likely one year player. The question would be "what have you proven you can do WITHOUT your son on the team?" All in all, an interesting situation.
PBJ has listed Northwestern among the schools he is considering. His mother went there and his father used to be an assistant coach under Chris Collins. I doubt he goes there if his dad isn't the head coach.
All things being equal, it does seem that he wants to play for his dad. Then again, there are always recruits that surprise. We are not in his head.
I live in Chicago, and I have not seen or heard any inclination or hot take locally that Collins will be let go. He's done what no coach has done in getting NU to the dance. They let Bill Carmody coach 5 more years after an 8-22 season. Expectations are low in Evanston for any sport outside of women's lacrosse, so that job will not be opening any time soon. Granted, like Duke, they are about to break in a new AD, so things can change, but if they were to go a different direction, they would almost assuredly go with someone who comes from a strong coaching pedigree and/or someone with strong recruiting ties in the Midwest.
cant believe Banchero has 40lbs on PBJr!
with AJ and Keels, dont think we ll miss him.
How about Chris Carrawell? I’ve always thought he was a better comp for Wendell. They are about the same size and have similar games although Wendell had the reputation of better perimeter skills coming to Duke.
Carrawell made a tremendous leap forward his senior year averaging 17 pts, 6 reb and 3 assists while making 38% of his 3s and earning first team all ACC honors.
I think a similar jump forward is possible for Wendell.