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  1. #1061
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    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    There’s no question that Baldwin would be a huge get and give us a class approaching (but obviously not equaling) the 2018 group. But given the likely makeup of next year’s squad count me among those who view him as a luxury and not a necessity.

    Operating under the assumption Hurt goes and we don’t want to go small ball again, we’d basically have 6 starter caliber players for 5 spots: Roach, Steward, Moore, Griffin, Banchero, and Williams. Those 6 give us a ton of roster flexibility assuming the chemistry is there and someone embracing a role as a super sixth man. And it’s not a given that Hurt leaves, obviously.

    Baldwin seems like a top tier talent that we’d obviously love to have. But Griffin and Banchero already compliment the existing core were likely to return very nicely and could potentially be the impetus for a huge leap forward. Thus, a luxury and not a necessity. So if he’s making his decision based on Jalen, so be it.
    The major concern with that core group is of course shooting. An issue which Baldwin would instantly resolve. Other than Steward, whose shooting is certainly improved of late and who I'm sure will be a solid outside shooter for us next year, who else are we going to be able to rely on to knock down outside jumpshots consistently? I hope Griffin can, and maybe he can. I hope Roach can, and maybe he can as he has shown some signs this year. I hope Baker can in a limited role. But I don't feel real confident in any of them at this point. Certainly not as confident as I would be in Baldwin.

  2. #1062
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    The major concern with that core group is of course shooting. An issue which Baldwin would instantly resolve. Other than Steward, whose shooting is certainly improved of late and who I'm sure will be a solid outside shooter for us next year, who else are we going to be able to rely on to knock down outside jumpshots consistently? I hope Griffin can, and maybe he can. I hope Roach can, and maybe he can as he has shown some signs this year. I hope Baker can in a limited role. But I don't feel real confident in any of them at this point. Certainly not as confident as I would be in Baldwin.
    Worth noting that Brakefield is shooting 39.1% from 3 on the season. If he's here and in the rotation (which would be more likely if Hurt leaves and Baldwin goes elsewhere), I'd expect him to be a good 3pt shooter at the PF spot.

    Griffin shot reasonably well in his high school career (41% on 272 attempts over 2 years, per TheStepien and Maxpreps), and the scouts seem to think he's going to be a terrific shotmaker from deep.

    And Moore (if he returns) has shot 33.3% since ACC play started this season. Given his great FT%, I'd expect him to advance into the 35+% range next season.

    I would not expect Roach to become a reliable 3pt shooter, but I suspect we'll have enough good shooters next year. Especially when you consider the playmaking abilities we should add with AJ Griffin and Paolo Banchero (not a ballhandler per se, but a good shot creator out of the high post).

  3. #1063
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Griffin shot reasonably well in his high school career (41% on 272 attempts over 2 years, per TheStepien and Maxpreps), and the scouts seem to think he's going to be a terrific shotmaker from deep.
    The weird thing about Griffin's high school shooting stats is, far as I can tell, he shot 46% from three as a freshman (per MaxPreps), 44% as a sophomore (per TheStepien), and 23% as a junior (per MaxPreps). He hasn't played at all as a senior. It just seems odd that his numbers would drop so much in that junior season.

  4. #1064
    This is what we all know:
    A Given- Johnson gone. JGold will graduate and Tapé will finish his year. Banchero and Griffin are coming in (unless either opts for the G League)
    Pretty close to A Given- Hurt will declare for the draft
    Unknown-who else might declare for the draft or any other roster changes

  5. #1065
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    The weird thing about Griffin's high school shooting stats is, far as I can tell, he shot 46% from three as a freshman (per MaxPreps), 44% as a sophomore (per TheStepien), and 23% as a junior (per MaxPreps). He hasn't played at all as a senior. It just seems odd that his numbers would drop so much in that junior season.
    I chalk that up to likely be a combination of small sample size (56 attempts over just 12 games in his junior year) and perhaps a change in role, where he was taking more shots off the dribble as a primary playmaker as a junior.

  6. #1066
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaks19 View Post
    This is what we all know:
    A Given- Johnson gone. JGold will graduate and Tapé will finish his year. Banchero and Griffin are coming in (unless either opts for the G League)
    Pretty close to A Given- Hurt will declare for the draft
    Unknown-who else might declare for the draft or any other roster changes
    I know this has been mentioned a lot, but Goldwire and Tapé will have the option to return for a 5th year of eligibility. We don't know if they will or not, meaning those two should be in the "Unknown" category as well.

  7. #1067
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaks19 View Post
    This is what we all know:
    A Given- Johnson gone. JGold will graduate and Tapé will finish his year. Banchero and Griffin are coming in (unless either opts for the G League)
    Pretty close to A Given- Hurt will declare for the draft
    Unknown-who else might declare for the draft or any other roster changes
    It's not a given that Goldwire or Tapé will go, as both have the option of playing another year due to the pandemic rules.

  8. #1068
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I chalk that up to a combination of small sample size (56 attempts over just 12 games in his junior year) and perhaps a change in role, where he was taking more shots off the dribble as a primary playmaker as a junior.
    That's about what I figured, too. But 23% on 4.8 three-attempts per game (which is not a small number on a per game basis), it's at least a red flag.

  9. #1069
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    That's about what I figured, too. But 23% on 4.8 three-attempts per game (which is not a small number on a per game basis), it's at least a red flag.
    The big concern I've read with him (per TheStepien as well, I believe) has been shot choice. He is capable of making any kind of shot, and so sometimes he takes shots he shouldn't. Hopefully the coaching staff will get him to the point where he isn't taking contested step-back 3s off the dribble in college.

    But yes, it's a question and the only reason I'm not 100% sold on him as a shooter. But I suspect that if the staff can convince him that his 3s should come from spot-ups rather than off the dribble, I suspect he'll be a solid shooter for us.

  10. #1070
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Worth noting that Brakefield is shooting 39.1% from 3 on the season. If he's here and in the rotation (which would be more likely if Hurt leaves and Baldwin goes elsewhere), I'd expect him to be a good 3pt shooter at the PF spot.

    Griffin shot reasonably well in his high school career (41% on 272 attempts over 2 years, per TheStepien and Maxpreps), and the scouts seem to think he's going to be a terrific shotmaker from deep.

    And Moore (if he returns) has shot 33.3% since ACC play started this season. Given his great FT%, I'd expect him to advance into the 35+% range next season.

    I would not expect Roach to become a reliable 3pt shooter, but I suspect we'll have enough good shooters next year. Especially when you consider the playmaking abilities we should add with AJ Griffin and Paolo Banchero (not a ballhandler per se, but a good shot creator out of the high post).
    I'm not sold on Brakefield yet as a shooter. He may yet convince me but it hasn't happened yet.

    Yes he's at 39% for the year. But he had one early season game against Bellarmine in which he was 4 for 4. And a mid December game at Notre Dame in which he was 2 for 2. If you just take out the Bellarmine game, for the rest of the season he's at 26%. If you also remove the Notre Dame game from 2 months ago, he's at 17%. The three pointer he hit the other day against State was his first since that Notre Dame game in December.

    I think everyone got pretty excited about Jaemyn's shooting early in those couple of games, but he has had a pretty rough time of it, albeit in limited minutes and shot opportunities, in ACC play. Let's hope he's more consistent going forward this year and next.

  11. #1071
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I'm not sold on Brakefield yet as a shooter. He may yet convince me but it hasn't happened yet.

    Yes he's at 39% for the year. But he had one early season game against Bellarmine in which he was 4 for 4. And a mid December game at Notre Dame in which he was 2 for 2. If you just take out the Bellarmine game, for the rest of the season he's at 26%. If you also remove the Notre Dame game from 2 months ago, he's at 17%. The three pointer he hit the other day against State was his first since that Notre Dame game in December.

    I think everyone got pretty excited about Jaemyn's shooting early in those couple of games, but he has had a pretty rough time of it, albeit in limited minutes and shot opportunities, in ACC play. Let's hope he's more consistent going forward this year and next.
    I mean, he's played limited minutes, but you shouldn't discount those made 3s. They still happened. I wouldn't anticipate that he'd get worse at it with more experience and more opportunity. He did come to Duke with the reputation as a good shooter for a PF so I would be surprised if he suddenly turned into a sub-35% guy next year.

  12. #1072
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Toronto
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaks19 View Post
    This is what we all know:
    A Given- Johnson gone. JGold will graduate and Tapé will finish his year. Banchero and Griffin are coming in (unless either opts for the G League)
    Pretty close to A Given- Hurt will declare for the draft
    Unknown-who else might declare for the draft or any other roster changes
    Please do not forget that both JG and Tape can return next year if it is mutually agreed upon given the COVID eligibility waivers. If JG is willing to return as a fifth year senior in a complimentary off the bench role we should say he’s to that in a heartbeat, and I think next year’s squad would be much better for it.
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  13. #1073
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    Nov 2016
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    That's about what I figured, too. But 23% on 4.8 three-attempts per game (which is not a small number on a per game basis), it's at least a red flag.
    I'm not sure that it's a red flag because of his earlier results. Maybe it is kinda red, call it a reddish flag.

  14. #1074
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    May 2012
    Location
    Boulder, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I'm not sold on Brakefield yet as a shooter. He may yet convince me but it hasn't happened yet.

    Yes he's at 39% for the year. But he had one early season game against Bellarmine in which he was 4 for 4. And a mid December game at Notre Dame in which he was 2 for 2. If you just take out the Bellarmine game, for the rest of the season he's at 26%. If you also remove the Notre Dame game from 2 months ago, he's at 17%. The three pointer he hit the other day against State was his first since that Notre Dame game in December.

    I think everyone got pretty excited about Jaemyn's shooting early in those couple of games, but he has had a pretty rough time of it, albeit in limited minutes and shot opportunities, in ACC play. Let's hope he's more consistent going forward this year and next.
    I agree that the jury is still out on Brakefield's shooting, but the early results seem promising. I think we would all agree that the sample size is still too small and that he's obviously still learning the rigors of the college game. He also has been dealing with having a pretty short leash when he's on the floor, which has to effect him mentally on the court (with the relative depth and youth of this team and since he's a frosh, I don't think the short leash is unjustified)

    However if we start removing or adding games, especially with such a small sample size, it just seems like a poor argument. By this logic I could just as easily remove 2 (of his 3, overall) 0-2 three point nights and say without those games he's at above 47% on the year and our best 3 point option.

    Let's just say that clearly he has some talent and confidence in himself from deep, which is also true of the coaching staff and his teammates as well. I think it's fair to say that currently he's a "streaky shooter" who still has to fully acclimate to the college game. Perhaps the absence of JJ on our team will provide Brakefield with more opportunities to show us all what kind of shooter he can be.

  15. #1075
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by rhynelander View Post
    Let's just say that clearly he has some talent and confidence in himself from deep, which is also true of the coaching staff and his teammates as well.
    While there may be a small sample size of games, at this point he has almost certainly taken hundreds of threes under the watchful eyes of the coaches in practice. If he was a poor outside shooter, I am fairly sure they would be telling him not to shoot it in games until he develops more consistency. But, the reality is that when he plays in games, he is often seen setting up outside the 3 point line and looking for that shot. That tells me that he coaching staff feels pretty good about him taking it.

    Bottom line -- anyone who the teams tries to set up for a 3 on offense is probably someone more than capable of hitting 3s at a good rate in games. I'm perfectly fine with Brakefield taking any 3 that is open for him.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  16. #1076
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    While there may be a small sample size of games, at this point he has almost certainly taken hundreds of threes under the watchful eyes of the coaches in practice. If he was a poor outside shooter, I am fairly sure they would be telling him not to shoot it in games until he develops more consistency. But, the reality is that when he plays in games, he is often seen setting up outside the 3 point line and looking for that shot. That tells me that he coaching staff feels pretty good about him taking it.

    Bottom line -- anyone who the teams tries to set up for a 3 on offense is probably someone more than capable of hitting 3s at a good rate in games. I'm perfectly fine with Brakefield taking any 3 that is open for him.
    Yep, this is essentially the "Luke Kennard freshman year" argument. And I think it's a solid one. Coach K is not shy about telling players not to do something that is detrimental to the team's performance. So if Brakefield is being encouraged to shoot 3s in games (that seems to be the case given his role in games thus far), that must mean the staff is comfortable with his perimeter shot. For example, Mark Williams, Patrick Tape, and Henry Coleman appear to have a "don't shoot 3s" mandate.

    Given his high school reputation, the overall results in limited time this year, and the context of him actually regularly attempting 3s this year, I'd feel comfortable with him as a shooter next year.

  17. #1077
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yep, this is essentially the "Luke Kennard freshman year" argument. And I think it's a solid one. Coach K is not shy about telling players not to do something that is detrimental to the team's performance. So if Brakefield is being encouraged to shoot 3s in games (that seems to be the case given his role in games thus far), that must mean the staff is comfortable with his perimeter shot. For example, Mark Williams, Patrick Tape, and Henry Coleman appear to have a "don't shoot 3s" mandate.

    Given his high school reputation, the overall results in limited time this year, and the context of him actually regularly attempting 3s this year, I'd feel comfortable with him as a shooter next year.
    I have a feeling that several guys, Steward in particular, but also Brakefield, Moore, Baker, and Roach will find a lot of open jump shots due to the gravity of playing with Banchero. With Banchero and Williams on the court together, they will draw an intense amount of attention from opposing forwards. Williams isn't someone that can be left alone in the post, so it's going to be wings and guards helping to double Banchero. I love that Coach K has praised his passing. There are going to be so many open looks for the guards and driving lanes.

  18. #1078
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I have a feeling that several guys, Steward in particular, but also Brakefield, Moore, Baker, and Roach will find a lot of open jump shots due to the gravity of playing with Banchero. With Banchero and Williams on the court together, they will draw an intense amount of attention from opposing forwards. Williams isn't someone that can be left alone in the post, so it's going to be wings and guards helping to double Banchero. I love that Coach K has praised his passing. There are going to be so many open looks for the guards and driving lanes.
    Yes, and a similar statement can be made about Griffin as well. He's going to draw a lot of attention too, albeit from different spots on the floor than Banchero.

  19. #1079
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I have a feeling that several guys, Steward in particular, but also Brakefield, Moore, Baker, and Roach will find a lot of open jump shots due to the gravity of playing with Banchero. With Banchero and Williams on the court together, they will draw an intense amount of attention from opposing forwards. Williams isn't someone that can be left alone in the post, so it's going to be wings and guards helping to double Banchero. I love that Coach K has praised his passing. There are going to be so many open looks for the guards and driving lanes.
    Particularly against smaller, quicker teams, how would we do defensively with Banchero and Williams out there together? Williams seems pretty quick for his size but still isn't going to be guarding 6-6 guys.

  20. #1080
    https://247sports.com/LongFormArticl...6/#161062326_4

    Eric Bossi has logged a Crystal Ball pick for Keels to Duke (although, with a 4/10 confidence rating)

    He also picks Baldwin to Milwaukee (6/10)

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