2021 Men's Basketball Recruiting Thread

[jimsumner]

Darn it. Wow.

It feels like we've been missing on guards recently. Recently being the last 2-3 years. Preempting the Jim Sumner Tate Armstrong-esque examples of how Duke has had sensational guards for 900 years.

- Chillin

Bill Werber says hi.

[-jk]

Bill Werber says hi.

I thought Bill Werber served the beer...

-jk

[Skitzle]

I think Duke's 2020 roster being filled with potential but not sure-fire one-and-dones makes the availability of playing time foggy enough that 2021 recruits are choosing to go elsewhere. Which I think is also perfectly fair.

In this respect, I wouldn't be to concerned about the current so-called "slump" in terms of recruiting

[DavidBenAkiva]

I think Duke's 2020 roster being filled with potential but not sure-fire one-and-dones makes the availability of playing time foggy enough that 2021 recruits are choosing to go elsewhere. Which I think is also perfectly fair.

In this respect, I wouldn't be to concerned about the current so-called "slump" in terms of recruiting

Lots of uncertainty.

There's a very real possibility that Duke returns most of its current incoming freshman class to the NBA after the 2020-21 season (should it occur). Jalen Johnson for sure is going pro as soon as possible. After that, DJ Steward, Jeremy Roach, and maybe Mark Williams might think about it. It could be that some combination of those three, Jaemyn Brakefield, and Henry Coleman return as sophomores.

Jordan Goldwire will graduate and might find a professional role somewhere.

Joey Baker seems to love Duke and his shooting will always be needed.

Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore, Jr. will have interesting decisions. They could both play their way into the NBA draft this upcoming season (again, if). It is not out of the cards that one or both could play at Duke as a junior, too.

One possibility is that Duke relies heavily on Johnson, Hurt, and Moore this upcoming season with promising but more supportive contributions from Goldwire, Baker, Roach, Steward, Williams, and others. Johnson, Hurt, and Moore go pro while Roach and Steward get feedback about their draft prospects that indicates a mixed bag. For Roach, he hears that he has shown good flashes but didn't really run the team and could improve as a shooter. For Steward, the question is what position is he at the next level, a lead guard or an undersized scoring guard? Williams hears he needs to add lower body strength and be more assertive on offense. All three return to Durham along with Baker.

That leaves Duke with Roach and Steward in the backcourt, Baker, AJ Griffin, and Brakefield on the wings, and Coleman and Williams in the frontcourt. That's a really good 7 players. Duke is hard after Patrick Baldwin, Jr., so we can assume he's in the mix. That's a really good 8 players. I think they'll add another big man behind Williams and then a guard for long-term depth.

PG: Roach
SG: Steward
SF: Griffin
PF: Baldwin
C: Williams

Bench: Baker, Brakefield, Coleman, TBD post player, TBD guard

Tell me that team wouldn't be among the better squads Duke has rolled out in a recent years.

[kAzE]

Yikes, if Roach and Steward both go pro, the only PG on the roster for 2021 will be Michael Savarino. There's basically no PGs left in the class of 2021 who would be fit to start at Duke. I think looking for a transfer would be the only option in that scenario.

[scottdude8]

Yikes, if Roach and Steward both go pro, the only PG on the roster for 2021 will be Michael Savarino. There's basically no PGs left in the class of 2021 who would be fit to start at Duke. I think looking for a transfer would be the only option in that scenario.

I think the fact that we really were only recruiting Chandler hard as an immediate impact PG in 2021, combined with the fact that we didn't pursue Andrew Nembhard on the transfer market as hard as we potentially could have, has to mean the staff things Roach and/or Steward are multi-year guys. I trust K enough to think he wouldn't leave that big a hole on his recruiting board without some plan.

That said, if both Roach and Steward end up as OADs, I think we'd all be pretty happy... both those guys playing that well would have to translate into some pretty strong success for this upcoming team.

[MartyClark]

Yikes, if Roach and Steward both go pro, the only PG on the roster for 2021 will be Michael Savarino. There's basically no PGs left in the class of 2021 who would be fit to start at Duke. I think looking for a transfer would be the only option in that scenario.

In theory Goldwire could be back as a 5th year senior - assuming Duke doesn't play this year.

[Indoor66]

I thought Bill Werber served the beer...

-jk

He did that too.

[JasonEvans]

It feels like we've been missing on guards recently. Recently being the last 2-3 years.

Huh?

2020 - we landed Roach and Steward, 2 5-star guards
2019 - we landed 4-star guard Cassius Stanley and Boogie Ellis (Ellis left when Stanley arrived)
2018 - we landed 5-star Tre Jones as well as 5-star RJ Barrett

I am really not seeing your theory. But, lets look at who Duke went after and missed to see if there might be something there.

2020 - We made offers to Cade Cunningham and BJ Boston, but I don't feel like we were ever that involved with them
2019 - We considered Nico Manion, but never all that seriously. We certainly wanted Brian Antione
2018 - We took a look at Romeo Langford, but didn't go after him that hard after getting Cam and RJ

So, yeah, I'm really not seeing the "Duke keeps missing on guards" thing.

[bullettoothtony]

^ 2019 Josiah James.

So to Chillin's point, if you include this year, since 2019, we've missed Antoine, James, Boston (I won't count Cade, but one could), Christie, and Chandler, all of whom seemed to be major/primary targets, at some point, at the guard spots.

I'm not alarmed, but I'm not indifferent either.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Remember when Duke couldn't get big men? Seems like forever ago.

[bullettoothtony]

Remember when Duke couldn't get big men? Seems like forever ago.

Yep. And supposedly the primary reason was Wojo coaching our frontcourt, IIRC?

[lotusland]

Remember when Duke couldn't get big men? Seems like forever ago.

Specifically Duke struggled to get big men not named Plumlee. Fortunately we had 9-years and 2 nattys worth of Plumlees. Shouldn’t Miles have a college aged son by now? MP1 the 2nd?

[dm9e24]

^ 2019 Josiah James.

So to Chillin's point, if you include this year, since 2019, we've missed Antoine, James, Boston (I won't count Cade, but one could), Christie, and Chandler, all of whom seemed to be major/primary targets, at some point, at the guard spots.

I'm not alarmed, but I'm not indifferent either.

We moved off Boston at Peach Jam that year to Steward. I believe that K and the staff have prioritized Keels in this class, who was offered after Christie. Apparently Chandler thinks Roach is coming back, which can help us with Keels. You could say we missed on Boogie, but ended up with Cassius. Some misses aren't bad misses in the end.

[ChillinDuke]

Huh?

2020 - we landed Roach and Steward, 2 5-star guards
2019 - we landed 4-star guard Cassius Stanley and Boogie Ellis (Ellis left when Stanley arrived)
2018 - we landed 5-star Tre Jones as well as 5-star RJ Barrett

I am really not seeing your theory. But, lets look at who Duke went after and missed to see if there might be something there.

2020 - We made offers to Cade Cunningham and BJ Boston, but I don't feel like we were ever that involved with them
2019 - We considered Nico Manion, but never all that seriously. We certainly wanted Brian Antione
2018 - We took a look at Romeo Langford, but didn't go after him that hard after getting Cam and RJ

So, yeah, I'm really not seeing the "Duke keeps missing on guards" thing.

Cassius Stanley is not a guard, in my eyes. Neither is RJ Barrett. They are wings. Barrett clearly a wing. Stanley less clear, but safely on the wing side of the line to my eye.

2018 - we landed Tre and Cam Reddish. I'm not sure if Reddish is a guard or a wing. I'll give him guard credit. But we missed on Darius Garland who was, to my recollection, an early priority recruit.
2019 - the trend accelerates. Cassius is not a guard. Boogie Ellis didn't even come to Duke, so (???). We also offered Nico Mannion, Bryan Antoine and Scottie Lewis, none of which came. Maybe you can call Lewis a wing. So if you exclude Cassius due to wing classification, we didn't ink a guard last year. Did we not also want Cole Anthony? There was certainly ample chatter around here like we did. What about RJ Hampton? Josiah James? Joe Girard? Honest disagreement or convenient exclusions?
2020 - this year, yes of course we have Roach and Steward. They count. But we offered Cunningham and BJ Boston, both of which are rated much higher (like, top-5 higher). I thought we also had strong interest in Scottie Barnes, but I'll give him wing credit.
2021 - main three guard targets are Christie, Chandler, and Keels, of which two look like they're off the table already.

If you use my cutoff (I said "2-3 years"; but I was eyeballing), the difference actually does seem to bear out.

2017 - we landed the #1 SG in Gary Trent (all rankings RSCI; and assuming Collin Sexton was a PG which I'm pretty sure he was?) and we essentially hand-picked the #1 PG late in the game in Trevon Duval. At least it felt that way in my memory.
2016 - we didn't get Dennis Smith (but there was some funny business going on there) and we didn't get Tyus Battle. We landed Frank Jackson. Were we interested in Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Malik Monk, or De'aaron Fox? I don't remember them being particular priorities at the time but maybe I'm forgetting.
2015 - the Top-25 guards in Summer RSCI were Malik Newman, Isaiah Briscoe, Allonzo Trier, Antonio Blakeney, Jalen Brunson, Justin Simon, Jawun Evans, Luke Kennard, Dwayne Bacon, Perry Dozier, and Tyler Dorsey. I don't remember being particularly interested in any of those guys, save Kennard, and we got him. Maybe we were interested in Brunson? And then we seemingly hand-picked a reclass in Derryck Thornton.

Look, we're always going to miss on players. And look, I wasn't trying to make this a particularly deep dive conversation. But there felt like a time of 5+ years where it was more like "Duke sees, Duke gets", at least for guards and premier wings. The premier wing piece seems to persist today. But the guards seems more of a mixed bag of late. In the early 2010s, we seemed to have a very high hit rate on premier guards, at least the ones we specifically targeted, whether getting in early or hand-picking late. Recently, in the past 3 years or so, I'm not feeling that same vibe.

Maybe your mileage varies. Or maybe I'm selectively remembering. It's not a major issue either way, we've been doing just fine in recruiting and I suspect we will continue to do just fine.

- Chillin

[DavidBenAkiva]

I had heard this was going to happen, but now it is official. Jonathan Givony of ESPN is reporting that Caleb Houstan, a 5-star SF from Montverde Academy in Florida by way of Ontario, Canada (sound familiar?) has reclassified from the Class of 2022 to the Class of 2021. Houstan had been the only recruit in the Class of '22 that had received an offer from Duke. He remains a top priority.

As a sophomore last year, Houstan was a starter from a loaded Montverde Academy as well as the leading scorer (23 PPG in just 29 MPG) for Canada's U16 team last summer. That team went 5-1, losing to the American team in the finals. Houstan is a gifted shooter and scorer with a package of skills rare for his size and athletic ability. He'll be competing with Patrick Baldwin, Jr. and Chet Holmgren for the top player in the Class of 2021 rankings.

If Duke were to somehow snag all three of Baldwin, Houstan, and AJ Griffin, they would be absolutely loaded on the wings with a versatile and deadly group of scorers. That appears to be the recruiting plan, from what I can tell.

[scottdude8]

I had heard this was going to happen, but now it is official. Jonathan Givony of ESPN is reporting that Caleb Houstan, a 5-star SF from Montverde Academy in Florida by way of Ontario, Canada (sound familiar?) has reclassified from the Class of 2022 to the Class of 2021. Houstan had been the only recruit in the Class of '22 that had received an offer from Duke. He remains a top priority.

As a sophomore last year, Houstan was a starter from a loaded Montverde Academy as well as the leading scorer (23 PPG in just 29 MPG) for Canada's U16 team last summer. That team went 5-1, losing to the American team in the finals. Houstan is a gifted shooter and scorer with a package of skills rare for his size and athletic ability. He'll be competing with Patrick Baldwin, Jr. and Chet Holmgren for the top player in the Class of 2021 rankings.

If Duke were to somehow snag all three of Baldwin, Houstan, and AJ Griffin, they would be absolutely loaded on the wings with a versatile and deadly group of scorers. That appears to be the recruiting plan, from what I can tell.

The Canadians never disappoint. Just like MSG is Cameron North, let's make Duke Toronto South

[bullettoothtony]

Houstan, Griffin and Baldwin would be absolutely sick. Would love to see that.

[BlueDevilStop]

The Houstan news has me very excited. The idea of Baldwin, Houstan, and Griffin together is amazing. Not only are they incredibly talented but the shooting is off the charts good.

[Jaks19]

Duke is not the clear leader for Houstan. So until there's more news just be hopeful