2021 Men's Basketball Recruiting Thread

[Skydog]

I appreciate your point here, but the same can apply in the other direction. ORtg is a nice metric, but it is just as flawed (perhaps moreso) than per-possession stats. It will inherently favor guys who take only high-percentage shots and who don't pass. A guy who does nothing but dunk is going to have a high ORtg. A guy who passes a lot or shoots more highly contested shots will generally have a lower ORtg. In short, ORtg isn't a great metric for effectiveness. "Effectiveness" is way more qualitative than that.

And again, I'm not saying that Johnson was better than Bagley. He wasn't. But his per-possession assists, steals, and blocks were much better, his 3pt% and A/TO ratio were better, and he had a comparable rebound rate. Bagley was much better in 2pt% and fouls (the fouls were in part due to Bagley not playing defense and then playing zone for the second half of the season) and notably better in points. ORtg really dings Johnson for turning it over more and taking more difficult shots.

And in aggregate, like I said, I'd definitely take Bagley's production over Johnson's due Bagley being much more consistent. But I do think people are underselling just how impactful Johnson was statistically in a variety of ways. He had foul trouble like many freshmen bigs have early in their freshman year and he quit on the team, and I think that has deflated some folks' opinions of his performance when he was on the court. Well, that and the fact that his teammates were really bad during that stretch of the season, in part because they weren't top-tier freshmen but were being asked to play like top-tier freshmen, and we just didn't have the amount veteran talent around him that we've more typically had.



You are more than welcome to your opinion. Based on the responses thus far "so-and-so shined in winning a title; so-and-so was ACC PoY; etc", I suspect that they were indeed not understanding what I was talking about. Either that or having glossed over the memories of the inconsistencies/warts of those earlier players and/or not been able to dissociate Johnson's on-court play from the rest of our experience with him.

Im a stats guy and I couldn’t disagree with you more about the importance of ORtg. When combined with %poss used it is by far the most important offensive stat that sites like Kenpom publish. The game outcome is totally determined by the team with the higher unadjusted ORtg (or points per possession). And by simple math any player with an OR below the team average (for that game) has lowered the team ppp. And in fact the more possessions a player with a below ave ppp uses the more he hurts the team. The opposite is true if the player’s OR is higher than the team average.

A player like Johnson who was both inefficient (102 OR, only Brakefield and Baker were lower) and used up a LOT of possessions (29%, most on team, 2nd was 21%) hurt our chances of winning. A lot.

Johnson was efficient in 5 out of 13 games: Coppin St, Pitt, Ga Tech, Clemson and UNC. For the rest he was a very inefficient 0.6 and 0.9 ppp.

Also your point about off efficiency depending on position and how often you pass is only partly true. Point guards have more turnovers, which hurts their efficiency, but they also get assists which raise teammates ppp. Conversely many ball hogs have poor efficiency because they try to force plays for themselves. Johnson was a mix - he turned the ball over 24% of the time (only Baker was worse) but he also got assists on 20% of his possessions (only Goldwire was better). So Johnson did help others be a bit more efficient- but not enough to justify a 102 OR and 29% usage.

Of course defense matters - a stellar defender will lower the opponent’s ppg. But Johnson would have to have been the best defender in all of D1 bball to make up for his poor (for Duke) 1.02 points per possession.

A number of freshmen come in with OR’s in the low 95-105 range (few of the great ones though). But they don’t go out and use up most of the teams possessions. Johnson did both.

[Wander]

Josh McRoberts says hello.

(Not suggesting he is more disappointing, but definitely in the conversation).

He was supposed to be a program-changing talent. He was not.

I hear ya, but McRoberts was the best player on a 6 seed and a pretty good defensive player and passer – definitely a disappointment for Duke and well below his recruiting expectations, I'm not trying to sugarcoat that year or have rosy memories. But that is light years ahead of being the 3rd, 4th, or 5th best starter on a team that missed the tournament entirely.

[jimsumner]

I hear ya, but McRoberts was the best player on a 6 seed and a pretty good defensive player and passer – definitely a disappointment for Duke and well below his recruiting expectations, I'm not trying to sugarcoat that year or have rosy memories. But that is light years ahead of being the 3rd, 4th, or 5th best starter on a team that missed the tournament entirely.

McRoberts was second-team All-ACC in 2007, Duke's only all-conference player and first-team All Defensive ACC. And he played the entire season.

[Kedsy]

It was the other way around.

https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Ba...oup=HighSchool

Sorry, in the RSCI, Duval was #5, Sexton was #6.

[Kedsy]

Im a stats guy and I couldn’t disagree with you more about the importance of ORtg. When combined with %poss used it is by far the most important offensive stat that sites like Kenpom publish.

Curious, is there a reason why oRtg might be more important than other efficiency metrics like PER, win shares per 40, and box plus-minus? Because while I agree Jalen Johnson's oRtg (which according to sports-reference was 104.3, to go with a dRtg of 95.4) was subpar, his other efficiency ratings were quite good (PER = 25.7; ws/40 = .162; box +/- = 8.5 and eFG% = 56.0%), comparing favorably to Barrett, Trent, Tatum, and Ingram, and not far off Winslow. I'm not saying we should ignore oRtg, but surely it's not the only player efficiency metric that matters?

[Skydog]

Curious, is there a reason why oRtg might be more important than other efficiency metrics like PER, win shares per 40, and box plus-minus? Because while I agree Jalen Johnson's oRtg (which according to sports-reference was 104.3, to go with a dRtg of 95.4) was subpar, his other efficiency ratings were quite good (PER = 25.7; ws/40 = .162; box +/- = 8.5 and eFG% = 56.0%), comparing favorably to Barrett, Trent, Tatum, and Ingram, and not far off Winslow. I'm not saying we should ignore oRtg, but surely it's not the only player efficiency metric that matters?

No OR is not as important as WS, PER or BPM or similar advanced stats. Those stats take defense, rebounds, etc as well as efficiency into account. Thats why I said “of the stats provided by Kenpom.” Anyway my point was that OR was much more important than pts/100 or any other offensive measure that completely ignores efficiency. Averaging 20 points per game is impressive if it takes 12 shots and involves 1 turnover . But that 20 pts is decidedly not impressive if it takes 25 shots and comes with 4 turnovers.

When watching NBA I go to basketball-reference.com for advanced stats but for college I just go to Kenpom and he doesn’t provide PER, etc. Guess it’s habit. Btw, I have no idea why Johnson’s ORtg is higher on sportsreference than Kenpom.

Some of the advanced stats are better than others for small sample sizes but I don’t remember which. If Johnson shines on the adv stats then he’s doing a lot of good things to make up for the 24% turnover and his 63% ft shooting.

[Kedsy]

Btw, I have no idea why Johnson’s ORtg is higher on sportsreference than Kenpom.

Maybe KenPom does some sort of adjustment for competition?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I hear ya, but McRoberts was the best player on a 6 seed and a pretty good defensive player and passer – definitely a disappointment for Duke and well below his recruiting expectations, I'm not trying to sugarcoat that year or have rosy memories. But that is light years ahead of being the 3rd, 4th, or 5th best starter on a team that missed the tournament entirely.

Crap. I was thinking of Shavlik Randolph, who had Jordan openly recruiting him and was supposed to be the Next Bug Thing.

Apologies to all involved. In fairness, both players were on Duke in an era that I was a bit checked out on sports.

[Skydog]

Maybe KenPom does some sort of adjustment for competition?

I made the mistake of looking up the formula Kenpom uses, created by Dean Oliver, the sabertrician of b-ball. Here it is - I don’t think I will be checking it! :

“The basic building blocks of the Offensive Rating calculation are Individual Total Possessions and Individual Points Produced. The formula for Total Possessions is broken down into four components: Scoring Possessions, Missed FG Possessions, Missed FT Possessions, and Turnovers.

The Scoring Possessions formula is by far the most complex:

ScPoss = (FG_Part + AST_Part + FT_Part) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + ORB_Part
where:

FG_Part = FGM * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)
qAST = ((MP / (Team_MP / 5)) * (1.14 * ((Team_AST - AST) / Team_FGM))) + ((((Team_AST / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - AST) / ((Team_FGM / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - FGM)) * (1 - (MP / (Team_MP / 5))))
AST_Part = 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST
FT_Part = (1-(1-(FTM/FTA))^2)*0.4*FTA
Team_Scoring_Poss = Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * Team_FTA * 0.4
Team_ORB_Weight = ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play%) / ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play% + Team_ORB% * (1 - Team_Play%))
Team_ORB% = Team_ORB / (Team_ORB + (Opponent_TRB - Opponent_ORB))
Team_Play% = Team_Scoring_Poss / (Team_FGA + Team_FTA * 0.4 + Team_TOV)
ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%
Missed FG and Missed FT Possessions are calculated as follows:

FGxPoss = (FGA - FGM) * (1 - 1.07 * Team_ORB%)
FTxPoss = ((1 - (FTM / FTA))^2) * 0.4 * FTA
Total Possessions are then computed like so:

TotPoss = ScPoss + FGxPoss + FTxPoss + TOV
Now, Individual Points Produced must also be calculated:

PProd = (PProd_FG_Part + PProd_AST_Part + FTM) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + PProd_ORB_Part
where:

PProd_FG_Part = 2 * (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)
PProd_AST_Part = 2 * ((Team_FGM - FGM + 0.5 * (Team_3PM - 3PM)) / (Team_FGM - FGM)) * 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST
PProd_ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% * (Team_PTS / (Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * 0.4 * Team_FTA))
After all of that, we can finally calculate the player's individual Offensive Rating:

ORtg = 100 * (PProd / TotPoss)”

My lord! Had no idea it was that complex.

[Spanarkel]

I'm good with this. But I have an intense hatred of Trae Young and everything he stands for, so I am glad he is not a Duke alum. I believe Collin Sexton was rated just ahead of Trevon for the top spot though.

Are you kidding?

Just looked at the last 2 months of Trae Young's twitter page and found the following:

he sponsors a girls AAU basketball team

he recognizes his Hawks teammates for good play(ie, Tony Snell's 50/50/100 club status)

he likes to collect wrist watches

he sponsored a walk-in COVID-19 vaccination site at an Atlanta-area Kroger

he pays homage to Kobe(Mamba Mentality)on anniversary of his untimely death

Seems like a unlikely villain/ogre to me.

Curious as to why you(and possibly others)may not like him. Like Kobe said: "They don't hate the good ones. They only hate the great ones."

[jv001]

Are you kidding?

Just looked at the last 2 months of Trae Young's twitter page and found the following:

he sponsors a girls AAU basketball team

he recognizes his Hawks teammates for good play(ie, Tony Snell's 50/50/100 club status)

he likes to collect wrist watches

he sponsored a walk-in COVID-19 vaccination site at an Atlanta-area Kroger

he pays homage to Kobe(Mamba Mentality)on anniversary of his untimely death

Seems like a unlikely villain/ogre to me.

Curious as to why you(and possibly others)may not like him. Like Kobe said: "They don't hate the good ones. They only hate the great ones."

So that's why Christian Laettner is hated so much.

GoDuke!

[lotusland]

Are you kidding?

Just looked at the last 2 months of Trae Young's twitter page and found the following:

he sponsors a girls AAU basketball team

he recognizes his Hawks teammates for good play(ie, Tony Snell's 50/50/100 club status)

he likes to collect wrist watches

he sponsored a walk-in COVID-19 vaccination site at an Atlanta-area Kroger

he pays homage to Kobe(Mamba Mentality)on anniversary of his untimely death

Seems like a unlikely villain/ogre to me.

Curious as to why you(and possibly others)may not like him. Like Kobe said: "They don't hate the good ones. They only hate the great ones."

Well he has beef with Grayson Allen so I dislike him for that. On the other hand, if I disliked everyone who hates on GA, I’d be a lonely man. I’d have disassociate from some of my best friends.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Are you kidding?

Just looked at the last 2 months of Trae Young's twitter page and found the following:

he sponsors a girls AAU basketball team

he recognizes his Hawks teammates for good play(ie, Tony Snell's 50/50/100 club status)

he likes to collect wrist watches

he sponsored a walk-in COVID-19 vaccination site at an Atlanta-area Kroger

he pays homage to Kobe(Mamba Mentality)on anniversary of his untimely death

Seems like a unlikely villain/ogre to me.

Curious as to why you(and possibly others)may not like him. Like Kobe said: "They don't hate the good ones. They only hate the great ones."

Sports hate is different from real life hate. I even read somewhere online that there was once a Tar Heel who wasn't a deplorable human being.

[CDu]

Im a stats guy and I couldn’t disagree with you more about the importance of ORtg. When combined with %poss used it is by far the most important offensive stat that sites like Kenpom publish.

A number of freshmen come in with OR’s in the low 95-105 range (few of the great ones though). But they don’t go out and use up most of the teams possessions. Johnson did both.

I didn't say ORtg was unimportant. I said it has flaws/limitations. It does a very good job of capturing efficiency, but it doesn't take into context one's role. High volume players ("focal point" guys asked to take a huge burden of shooting or distributing) will have a harder time in general having a high ORtg than guys who are low-volume players. Which is why I don't think you should look at ORtg in isolation, because it will lead to conclusions like senior-year Tyler Thornton was a fantastic offensive player. In fairness to Thonrton, he had a solid career as a role player, but his ORtg was very much a function of being asked to not do anything of note offensively except take wide-open shots created by others and make safe passes. OBPM is I think a much better metric for assessing a player's offensive value (and BPM a better metric for assessing a player's overall value).

And no, Johnson was not super efficient offensively, due to the turnovers as he tried to do too much for his teammates; his scoring efficiency was pretty solid: .575 TS%, .560 eFG%, both third on the team to the otherworldly-efficient Hurt and Williams. He had a 104.3 ORtg and 95.4 DRtg. His DRtg was best among the team's regulars and his ORtg/DRtg difference was third behind Williams and Hurt. And his 104.3 ORtg with a high usage isn't much different than that of Austin Rivers: 107.8 (with a 104.7 DRtg) on 25% usage. Which is why Johnson's PER, BPM, and WS/40 were all better than Rivers'. Rivers was a bit more efficient but less productive offensively (so a slightly lower OBPM), but not nearly as useful on the other end of the floor.

I hear ya, but McRoberts was the best player on a 6 seed and a pretty good defensive player and passer – definitely a disappointment for Duke and well below his recruiting expectations, I'm not trying to sugarcoat that year or have rosy memories. But that is light years ahead of being the 3rd, 4th, or 5th best starter on a team that missed the tournament entirely.

If you're talking about Johnson, he was easily the 2nd or 3rd best player on this past year's team. But I agree, McRoberts is often underappreciated (as a sophomore he got stuck with a terrible PG, minimal upperclassman support, and a bunch of not-quite-ready-for-primetime freshmen), and he was indeed light-years ahead of Steward/Goldwire/Moore.

[Natty_B]

McRoberts will always be tied to Hansbrough to me. Both in the same class. Both five star recruits. Both tallish white guys. In terms of college one worked out better than the other.

[CDu]

McRoberts will always be tied to Hansbrough to me. Both in the same class. Both five star recruits. Both tallish white guys. In terms of college one worked out better than the other.

Yeah, definitely relative to his #1 overall RSCI ranking, McRoberts was a disappointment. He had back problems and wasn't able to bulk up, which made life tough for him inside. And he was more of a "jack of all trades, master of none" type (not unlike Johnson, actually). As a team's second or third option offensively, he was a terrific fit. But on that 2007 team he was forced into a miscast role as go-to scorer.

Had Paulus not been so limited as a PG, or had Henderson been more ready from day one as a top-10 recruit, or had Nelson been a better offensive player, or had Hansbrough not been so much more successful as a college player, folks probably view McRoberts' career better than they do.

[TruBlu]

McRoberts will always be tied to Hansbrough to me. Both in the same class. Both five star recruits. Both tallish white guys. In terms of college one walked better than the other.

Fixed it for you.

[Kedsy]

I made the mistake of looking up the formula Kenpom uses, created by Dean Oliver, the sabertrician of b-ball. Here it is - I don’t think I will be checking it! :

According to this 538 article, there are several different versions of the usage stat (Oliver, Hollinger/ESPN, and Basketball-reference/sports-reference are all different). I'm not certain, but I believe one of the differences is how they define individual player possessions, which would also affect oRtg. If KenPom uses Oliver and sports-reference uses its own proprietary formula, then that could explain the difference.

[DU82]

Sports hate is different from real life hate. I even read somewhere online that there was once a Tar Heel who wasn't a deplorable human being.

Merely an inaccurate rumor.

[Skydog]

According to this 538 article, there are several different versions of the usage stat (Oliver, Hollinger/ESPN, and Basketball-reference/sports-reference are all different). I'm not certain, but I believe one of the differences is how they define individual player possessions, which would also affect oRtg. If KenPom uses Oliver and sports-reference uses its own proprietary formula, then that could explain the difference.

That is almost certainly the explanation. The good news is they are all pretty close to each other, with correlations in the high 90’s. As that article points out by any of the possession measures a player in the high 20’s is a high volume player, for better or worse. Ideally you want most of your possessions used by your more efficient scorers.

As CDU points out its hard to be both high usage and high efficiency. But players need to find the balance. To end up in the Top 10 your team pretty much has to have an average adjusted OR in the 115-125 range. (In the last 5 years 46 of the 50 top 10 teams had a KP OR >114.) So if a player’s ORtg drops below 105 AND he is using a lot of possessions he is really hurting the team on the offensive end. That player almost certainly needs to be more selective with his shot selection. I say ‘almost’ certainly because it is possible, but very rare, that the low efficiency has little to do with shot selection but is almost entirely due to non shooting turnovers. In those very rare cases shooting less isn’t the solution. Instead the player just needs to be more careful with the ball - stop dribbling into trouble and/or stop making bad or overly risky passes.

As CDU points out Johnson may be one of those rare cases. Because his shooting from the field ranged from fine to very good (54% on 2’s and 44%! from 3). His inefficiency came from a very high turnover rate (24%) and very poor foul shooting (63%). The latter was a particular problem because he was fouled on 35% of his possessions. It is also surprising given his 3pt accuracy. So maybe Johnson needed to shoot more - before he was fouled and before he had a chance to make a poor pass!

So in any case Johnson was a big problem for our offensive efficiency - when one player is using up 29% of the possessions with a sub 105 OR it makes it very hard for the team to have an overall OR in the 115-125 range. OTOH he was strong in other areas - a good offensive rebounder (#2 on team per minute), defensive rebounder (#1), shot blocker (2nd) and steals (2nd). Thats why he looked ok overall on more wide ranging advanced stats like PER and BPM.

Also it didn’t help his case that the player he was keeping on the bench was both efficient (OR=122) AND excelled at the rest - offensive rebounding(1), defensive rebounding (2), blocks(1) and steals (3).

Now back to recruiting?