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  1. #2461
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    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I can buy this bottom-line conclusion, but I contend that the odds that his shooting improves will increase if his handle and footwork are improved. I think he’ll be a better knock-down shooter if he can also get his own shot, just occasionally. But maybe he should do nothing but practice stand-still 3-bombs.

    That seems to be CDu’s point, though I know CDu is also generally a big believer in the importance of handle for perimeter players.



    I will say, I don’t see the Jack White comparison. Wasn’t Jack a stretch-4, who very rarely drove, hit 3s, then didn’t? But who was also a tough, tough defender, sneaky good shot-blocker. Which isn’t Baker.
    I don’t think that White and Baker are similar players overall. Like, at all. And that is why I am skeptical that Baker will see much PT next year. What I was getting at was the offensive role would be the same: stand in the corner or on the wing as a catch-and-shoot guy who never dribbles. Ideally, that guy gives you tough defense like White did. And if White hadn’t lost his shooting touch, he was a perfect fifth guy for that Duke team. Just like if Baker was better defensively, he could be a perfect fifth guy for next year’s team. The role was what I was referring to as similar, not the players attempting to fill it. Ultimately, White lost his stroke and ceased to be able to fill the role offensively. Baker will likely not be able to fill the role defensively.

    As for ballhandling, I do think it is perhaps the most valuable skill for a player, if not second to shooting. But I don’t think it is a skill that is easily/quickly improved. And it isn’t necessary for every player on a team to have it - you just need to have enough guys that can do it to not get one-dimensional. I also don’t think that Baker improving as a ballhandler will have much positive impact on his shooting, because I don’t think he can get good enough at it in one offseason to become a guy who can create his own shot. I think he is going to continue to be reliant on others to create his open looks. The past two years haven’t been great in terms of having shot creators, and as a result Baker has struggled. Next year we might have several shot creators, so there is a chance for Baker to flourish as a catch-and-shoot guy. So I tend to agree with Tommy that his best path is to become a knockdown shooter who is adequate defensively. So he should probably spend all offseason working on defense and various catch-and-shoot 3pt looks.

  2. #2462
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by 53n206 View Post
    So much recent discussion on this thread implies we have a lock on Baldwin. Is this true?
    I don’t think anyone is saying we have a lock on Baldwin. Pretty much everyone seems to be discussing the possibility, not taking it as a given.

  3. #2463
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
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    New York
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    They're also thrown out the window if Joey himself can show significant improvement. If he can be the true knock-down shooter -- consistently -- that we've all been thinking/hoping he was going to be, there will be minutes for him on this team. He can be scrappy on D, hustle, etc., and all that is great of course. But it's very simple for him: either he knocks down shots, and he'll get minutes, or he doesn't, and he won't.
    We've been waiting, patiently, for Joey Baker to be the consistent 3-point shooter he was recruited to be out of high school.

    If that player shows up next year, we will have a special season and he will be remembered as a key player on a championship team.

    If not...

  4. #2464
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I don’t think anyone is saying we have a lock on Baldwin. Pretty much everyone seems to be discussing the possibility, not taking it as a given.
    Seconded. Recent news implies we have a chance with Baldwin, which is a significant shift from where we stood previously... up until this past week or so it was almost a foregone conclusion that Baldwin would go play for his father. The tea leaves, for whatever reason, seem to be shifting though. Hence, with a lack of actual college basketball to watch, we are all speculating wildly
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  5. #2465
    It seems the Duke MBB official social media account isn't assuming anything. Or maybe they are?

    https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/1389317505865375744

  6. #2466
    Kudos to JE for the K-contrarian post. And Kedsy’s response ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    In a man-to-man scheme, if Griffin and Baldwin can't handle quick wings, then we'll either have to come up with an effective zone or adjust our expectations. But if they can move their feet well enough to stay in front of smaller players, I would think their size would end up as a defensive advantage (and certainly an offensive advantage; what 6'3" shooting guard will be able to handle Griffin or Baldwin?)
    ... makes me wonder whether contrarian-K is thinking that Williams (and sometimes John) back there will cause problems when opposing players get by their defender. Which in turn makes me hope that recovery — especially sliding down/over to intercept passes to the opposing center — will be a major emphasis in practice. As well as sticking with those shooters parked at the 3-point line. Williams, John, and Banchero don’t need triple-team help on D, do they?

  7. #2467
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA

    Keels v Baker

    Right now, I think it's safe to say - with or without Baldwin - that neither Keels nor Baker is starting. Assuming PBJ doesn't come to Duke, there are minutes for both. But if PBJ does come, given Coach K's tight rotations, it's fair to say one of them is getting him minutes significantly squeezed.

    Baker is a known commodity: he came into Duke with a great reputation as a shooter and turned into a hard hustling player who is gun shy to shoot. And that gun shy attitude has led to both a poor 3pt percentage last year (31.4%) and horrific offensive stats. He overthought all the time and gave up countless open looks to differ to another player. That needs to change next year for Baker to be the ~40% shooter that he was as a sophomore.

    Keels is not a known commodity. Like Baker, he's coming into Duke with the reputation as a shooter. He's good - but not great - at a lot of other areas. He's incredibly solid at 6'5" 210 with wide shoulders and a thick upper body (in a good way). But we have no idea about his defensive ability (most importantly, his ability to prevent penetration), his playmaking (not so important given Roach, Banchero, Griffin, and even Moore), his intangibles, or even his readiness (which I think is highly correlated to 3pt percentage).

    Baker has the experience without the effectiveness and Keels has more tools without understanding how ready he really is.

    It will be interesting to see what happens; if I'm a betting man, I'd say Baker gets more minutes in non-conference only for Keels to solidify the rotation spot come late winter / spring.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

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  8. #2468
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The past two years haven’t been great in terms of having shot creators, and as a result Baker has struggled. Next year we might have several shot creators, so there is a chance for Baker to flourish as a catch-and-shoot guy. So I tend to agree with Tommy that his best path is to become a knockdown shooter who is adequate defensively. So he should probably spend all offseason working on defense and various catch-and-shoot 3pt looks.
    One of my pet peeves last season was Joey not being ready to shoot when he received the ball. I'm not sure if he has a slow release or the passes were sub-par or a little from column A and a little from column B, but he needs to address that to be more effective. Hopefully a closer to normal off-season and pre-season gives Joey the opportunity to improve.

  9. #2469
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by TywinBlue View Post
    We've been waiting, patiently, for Joey Baker to be the consistent 3-point shooter he was recruited to be out of high school.

    If that player shows up next year, we will have a special season and he will be remembered as a key player on a championship team.

    If not...
    I'm not sure if this was your intention or not, but this post implied that whether or not we're a championship-caliber team next year depends on Joey's development. I don't think many would agree with that sentiment... especially if PBJ does arrive. A Joey Baker that achieves his potential could be what puts us over the top. But regardless, he'll be somewhere between the 7th-9th option on this year's squad. If he continues to struggle I don't think that affects our prospects in such a dramatic way as your ominous ellipses implies
    Scott Rich on the front page

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  10. #2470
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    One of my pet peeves last season was Joey not being ready to shoot when he received the ball. I'm not sure if he has a slow release or the passes were sub-par or a little from column A and a little from column B, but he needs to address that to be more effective. Hopefully a closer to normal off-season and pre-season gives Joey the opportunity to improve.
    Agreed. One of the keys to being a good catch-and-shoot guy is that you have to be ready to shoot when you get it. Baker did not appear to always be ready. In the offseason, he needs to work on getting that shot up quickly and in often.

    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    I'm not sure if this was your intention or not, but this post implied that whether or not we're a championship-caliber team next year depends on Joey's development. I don't think many would agree with that sentiment... especially if PBJ does arrive. A Joey Baker that achieves his potential could be what puts us over the top. But regardless, he'll be somewhere between the 7th-9th option on this year's squad. If he continues to struggle I don't think that affects our prospects in such a dramatic way as your ominous ellipses implies
    Also agreed. Baker's prospects next year will rely heavily on him improving. But the team's prospects don't necessarily hinge on him. Obviously him improving is better for the team than him not improving. But we should be a VERY good team either way. Especially true IF we get Baldwin. But still true even if we have our roster complete right now.

  11. #2471
    Quote Originally Posted by TywinBlue View Post
    We've been waiting, patiently, for Joey Baker to be the consistent 3-point shooter he was recruited to be out of high school.

    If that player shows up next year, we will have a special season and he will be remembered as a key player on a championship team.

    If not...
    I don't think consistent shooting has ever been Joey's problem. His freshman season, he basically didn't play (though he made one of his two three-point shots). He shot 39% from three for his entire sophomore season. He opened his junior season 0 for 6 in two games (and what shooter has never had a mini-slump like that?) and then shot 36% from three the rest of the season. If he had a problem this past season, it was either his inability to get an open look or his reluctance to pull the trigger. Whichever it was (not sure which, if he even had a problem at all), that problem disappeared around mid-season.

    As for next season, Joey's biggest obstacle will be getting enough playing time. If we get Baldwin (fingers crossed), then even if Joey is a consistent 38% to 40% three-point shooter, it might not be enough to get him more than 5 to 8 mpg, unless he drastically improves his defense, rebounding and/or other facets of his game.

    FWIW, I'm also not convinced that anybody around DBR has waited patiently for anything related to Duke basketball.

  12. #2472
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    I'm not sure if this was your intention or not, but this post implied that whether or not we're a championship-caliber team next year depends on Joey's development. I don't think many would agree with that sentiment... especially if PBJ does arrive. A Joey Baker that achieves his potential could be what puts us over the top. But regardless, he'll be somewhere between the 7th-9th option on this year's squad. If he continues to struggle I don't think that affects our prospects in such a dramatic way as your ominous ellipses implies
    Could there be a Grayson Allen type player that steps up toward the end of the season? I'm not talking about the NCAAT but maybe in the 2nd half of the ACC season? We have a decent idea of how good Banchero and Griffin are and if Baldwin does pick Duke, we know how good he'll be. Top 10 prospects usually play well. That player might come from this list; Moore, Keels, Roach or even Baker.
    I think most of us know Coach K will begin the season playing man2man defense and if that defense doesn't work, he's not afraid to go zone. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see anyone outside of Roach and Blakes that can defend an opposing point guard. Wendell is a terrific defender but he's most effective guarding the 2-4 positions. Heck, Griffin might be a Billy King type defender who can defend the opposing point guard. On paper and video we have some good looking players but until we see them in action we don't know how the players fit in the Duke system.

    GoDuke!

  13. #2473
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Lots of Joey Baker comments, so I'll add my .02.

    He is the kind of player who can be the key to winning one or two particular games (or more) -- he can score points in bunches, stretch an opposing defense, and ignite his team on a given night.

    He may not play a ton of minutes, but he'll play a role and help his team.

  14. #2474
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I don’t think that White and Baker are similar players overall. Like, at all. And that is why I am skeptical that Baker will see much PT next year. What I was getting at was the offensive role would be the same: stand in the corner or on the wing as a catch-and-shoot guy who never dribbles. Ideally, that guy gives you tough defense like White did. And if White hadn’t lost his shooting touch, he was a perfect fifth guy for that Duke team. Just like if Baker was better defensively, he could be a perfect fifth guy for next year’s team. The role was what I was referring to as similar, not the players attempting to fill it. Ultimately, White lost his stroke and ceased to be able to fill the role offensively. Baker will likely not be able to fill the role defensively.
    I dunno, CDu. I don't want to pick a fight with someone so formidable (French pronunciation, please). I see Joey as the heart and soul of the team -- a real warrior -- and he's gonna get some burn. He and maybe Wendell are probably the only players who know how to communicate like K wants. Then, if he gets hot from three, he may become a fixture in the lineup.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  15. #2475
    "If "and "when".

  16. #2476
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I dunno, CDu. I don't want to pick a fight with someone so formidable (French pronunciation, please). I see Joey as the heart and soul of the team -- a real warrior -- and he's gonna get some burn. He and maybe Wendell are probably the only players who know how to communicate like K wants. Then, if he gets hot from three, he may become a fixture in the lineup.
    I don’t know, Sage. If it comes down to playing time between Baker and Keels, I’ll take Keels every day of the week and twice on Sundays. I’m rooting for Joey, but I’d be lying if I said I have a lot of confidence in him upping his game enough to knock Trevor out of the lineup.

  17. #2477
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    I don’t know, Sage. If it comes down to playing time between Baker and Keels, I’ll take Keels every day of the week and twice on Sundays. I’m rooting for Joey, but I’d be lying if I said I have a lot of confidence in him upping his game enough to knock Trevor out of the lineup.
    Keels has zero years on the Duke team. I wouldn't count on him playing right away.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  18. #2478
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Keels has zero years on the Duke team. I wouldn't count on him playing right away.
    I completely understand that. I don’t think he starts, especially if we pick up Baldwin, but I do think he will end up playing more minutes toward the end of the season, on average, than Joey. His skillset will outweigh his lack of experience in Coach K’s system by the time we get to February when it’s all said and done.

  19. #2479
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Keels has zero years on the Duke team. I wouldn't count on him playing right away.
    And he has never missed a shot as a Blue Devil- that has to count for something.

  20. #2480
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    Mar 2009
    Location
    Seattle
    Goduke page says this about Keels.
    "Averaged 28.7 points, 9.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 3.8 steals per contest while recording six triple-doubles his senior season"

    Compared to Roach:
    "Averaged 19.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.9 steals per game as a senior and guided St. Paul VI HS to the VISAA D-I State Championship"

    His numbers look more similar to Tre Jones's:
    "Averaged 20.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists on the Nike EYBL circuit in 2017 for the Howard Pulley AAU program
    Averaged 23.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 7.5 assists for Apple Valley during the 2016-17 season"

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