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  1. #2041
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    A campus visit to seal the deal?

    When allowed?

    Division I Menís Basketball Dead Periods
    November 9Ė12, 2020
    December 24Ė26, 2020
    April 1Ė8 (noon), 2021
    April 12Ė15 2021
    May 20Ė28, 2021
    July 6-31, 2021*

    https://www.ncsasports.org/ncaa-elig...rocery%20store.
    That's so the coaches who make big bucks get to file their taxes on time. (Estimated taxes for 2021 still due this week, although 2020 returns not until May 17.)
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  2. #2042
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    So, Duke has never had a recruit rated close to 100 that has improved enough to be a top contributor on a really good team by his senior year. I can't think of one under Coach K but there might have been one in the Bubas era. I think there may have been some on other teams. Then who knows if this young man will be coached by the GOAT in his senior year.

    GoDuke!

  3. #2043
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    So, Duke has never had a recruit rated close to 100 that has improved enough to be a top contributor on a really good team by his senior year. I can't think of one under Coach K but there might have been one in the Bubas era. I think there may have been some on other teams. Then who knows if this young man will be coached by the GOAT in his senior year.

    GoDuke!
    Define "top contributor." Define "really good team."

    Dan Meagher, John Smith, Brian Davis, Marty Clark, Lee Melchionni, Jack White and Jordan Goldwire all seemed like significant contributors to really good teams to me. But your mileage may vary.

    But All-ACC? All-American? Leading scorer? No.

    But contributor? Absolutely.

  4. #2044
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    So, Duke has never had a recruit rated close to 100 that has improved enough to be a top contributor on a really good team by his senior year. I can't think of one under Coach K but there might have been one in the Bubas era. I think there may have been some on other teams. Then who knows if this young man will be coached by the GOAT in his senior year.

    GoDuke!
    Duke hasn't had many recruits in this range in the past 20 years, period. But some of the closest comps as discussed upstream...

    Tyler Thornton played 55% of available minutes on an Elite 8 team and 53% of available minutes as a senior on the #8 KenPom team.

    Miles Plumlee (I'd argue he was close to 100) played 40% of available minutes on a national champion as a soph, 40ish on the Kyrie team as a Junior, and 50% on a top-20 team as a senior in 2012.

    Lee Melchionni played more than 50% of available minutes in both 2005 and 2006 - both teams finished in the KenPom top 3.

    Top contributors? Maybe not leading scorers but if you play half of your team's minutes you are a key member of the team. So I'd consider these guys key contributors if not "top" contributors on excellent teams.

  5. #2045
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Define "top contributor." Define "really good team."

    Dan Meagher, John Smith, Brian Davis, Marty Clark, Lee Melchionni, Jack White and Jordan Goldwire all seemed like significant contributors to really good teams to me. But your mileage may vary.

    But All-ACC? All-American? Leading scorer? Sure.

    But contributor? Absolutely.
    I should have said All ACC, defensive star or NCAAT star. Now that I think of it, Billy King would probably fit the description but I don't remember rankings that far back. For sure, John Smith and Brian Davis met the description and maybe Danny Meagher. If Blakes is as good as Billy, John, Brian or Danny, I'll be very pleased. I'd love to see a player lock up an opposing player the way Billy Sky King did.

    GoDuke!

  6. #2046
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North of Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    I should have said All ACC, defensive star or NCAAT star. Now that I think of it, Billy King would probably fit the description but I don't remember rankings that far back. For sure, John Smith and Brian Davis met the description and maybe Danny Meagher. If Blakes is as good as Billy, John, Brian or Danny, I'll be very pleased. I'd love to see a player lock up an opposing player the way Billy Sky King did.

    GoDuke!
    How do we fit transfers? Seth Curry was a second team AA and a first team All ACC player his senior year.

  7. #2047
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    I should have said All ACC, defensive star or NCAAT star. Now that I think of it, Billy King would probably fit the description but I don't remember rankings that far back. For sure, John Smith and Brian Davis met the description and maybe Danny Meagher. If Blakes is as good as Billy, John, Brian or Danny, I'll be very pleased. I'd love to see a player lock up an opposing player the way Billy Sky King did.

    GoDuke!
    I doubt any program consistently turns sub-100 ranked recruits into stars. I'd be happy if Duke consistently turned them into leaders, defensive specialists, reliable shooters, etc. Because that would provide the program some stability and perhaps give Duke more of a chance to catch lightning in a bottle and have one of those occasional guys who does end up being a star from that range, thereby making many of us anti-OAD'ers happy

    Seriously, I think part of the excitement of this offer is this idea that some programs occasionally find a diamond in the (relative) rough - like Mikal Bridges being the 96th ranked recruit but a collegiate star at Villanova.

    Those things don't always or reliably pan out but if Duke started taking some of these guys periodically they at least get more chances for that to happen.

    I'm of course operating under the hypothesis that a sub-100 guy is slightly more willing to wait his turn, compared to a guy in the 30-100 range.

  8. #2048
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    I doubt any program consistently turns sub-100 ranked recruits into stars. I'd be happy if Duke consistently turned them into leaders, defensive specialists, reliable shooters, etc. Because that would provide the program some stability and perhaps give Duke more of a chance to catch lightning in a bottle and have one of those occasional guys who does end up being a star from that range, thereby making many of us anti-OAD'ers happy

    Seriously, I think part of the excitement of this offer is this idea that some programs occasionally find a diamond in the (relative) rough - like Mikal Bridges being the 96th ranked recruit but a collegiate star at Villanova.

    Those things don't always or reliably pan out but if Duke started taking some of these guys periodically they at least get more chances for that to happen.

    I'm of course operating under the hypothesis that a sub-100 guy is slightly more willing to wait his turn, compared to a guy in the 30-100 range.
    You said it better than I could. You must be reading my mind. I'll have to be careful going forward. Diamond in the rough. That's it.

    GoDuke!

  9. #2049
    Brian Davis started on a National Championship team. John Smith averaged 15mpg on a FF team. You could say we don't win the NC in 1992 without Marty Clark. Maybe in the OAD era it is tougher for lower rated recruits to contribute, but if we get him, he looks to have the measurable's and competitive attitude to maybe catch lightening in a bottle. You see a lot of guards every year in the NCAA tournament that very few hear about but stand out.

  10. #2050
    As an aside, here are guys I found from a cursory glance at the bottom 10 or so spots in recent years' RSCI top-100 rankings. Most years, I found 1 or 2 very recognizable names without having to ever go beyond #85.

    Tyrell Terry (88)
    James Akinjo (89)
    Jared Butler (95)
    Jordan Poole (99)
    Ty-Shon Alexander (96)
    Luke Garza (93)
    Myles Powell (100)
    Mo Wagner (97)
    Shake Milton (89)
    Mikal Bridges (96)
    Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (95)
    Domantas Sabonis (92)
    Josh Hart (94)
    Frank Mason (89)
    Denzell Valentine (88)
    Montrezl Harrell (85)
    Malcolm Brogdon (94)

    That's a decade's worth of a pretty good list and sure, plenty of guys in that range (or lower) did not become contributors but this is a compelling amount of success to me, in that (admittedly arbitrary) range.

  11. #2051
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    How do we fit transfers? Seth Curry was a second team AA and a first team All ACC player his senior year.
    Well, Seth and Steph are the counter-examples to predictions about college success from low or no ranking in high school.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  12. #2052
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    As an aside, here are guys I found from a cursory glance at the bottom 10 or so spots in recent years' RSCI top-100 rankings. Most years, I found 1 or 2 very recognizable names without having to ever go beyond #85.

    Tyrell Terry (88)
    James Akinjo (89)
    Jared Butler (95)
    Jordan Poole (99)
    Ty-Shon Alexander (96)
    Luke Garza (93)
    Myles Powell (100)
    Mo Wagner (97)
    Shake Milton (89)
    Mikal Bridges (96)
    Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (95)
    Domantas Sabonis (92)
    Josh Hart (94)
    Frank Mason (89)
    Denzell Valentine (88)
    Montrezl Harrell (85)
    Malcolm Brogdon (94)

    That's a decade's worth of a pretty good list and sure, plenty of guys in that range (or lower) did not become contributors but this is a compelling amount of success to me, in that (admittedly arbitrary) range.
    Great list. I was compiling the same thing. To yours, I would add (just in the last five years):

    Jaime Jacquez UCLA #96
    Prentis Hubb Notre Dame #92
    Gabe Brown Michigan State #100
    Darryl Morsell Maryland #89
    Sam Hauser Marquette #99
    Bruno Fernando Maryland #93
    Bryant Crawford Wake Forest #99

  13. #2053
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    As an aside, here are guys I found from a cursory glance at the bottom 10 or so spots in recent years' RSCI top-100 rankings. Most years, I found 1 or 2 very recognizable names without having to ever go beyond #85.

    Tyrell Terry (88)
    James Akinjo (89)
    Jared Butler (95)
    Jordan Poole (99)
    Ty-Shon Alexander (96)
    Luke Garza (93)
    Myles Powell (100)
    Mo Wagner (97)
    Shake Milton (89)
    Mikal Bridges (96)
    Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (95)
    Domantas Sabonis (92)
    Josh Hart (94)
    Frank Mason (89)
    Denzell Valentine (88)
    Montrezl Harrell (85)
    Malcolm Brogdon (94)

    That's a decade's worth of a pretty good list and sure, plenty of guys in that range (or lower) did not become contributors but this is a compelling amount of success to me, in that (admittedly arbitrary) range.
    This is a fun list, and there are certainly some standout college players and some NBA players among these names--I'm not super confident I know what the point of this exercise is, though. Is it to show that, occasionally, a guy in the 85-100 range hits? My guess is that from that same timeframe, you could find an equally or more compelling list of names in the 25-50 or 50-75 range too. I think it's well-recognized that recruiting rankings out of high school (or even NBA draft rankings) aren't an exact science, nor do I think anyone is really arguing that guys in this range never excel or exceed expectations.
    Haters gonna hate.

  14. #2054
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    This is a fun list, and there are certainly some standout college players and some NBA players among these names--I'm not super confident I know what the point of this exercise is, though. Is it to show that, occasionally, a guy in the 85-100 range hits? My guess is that from that same timeframe, you could find an equally or more compelling list of names in the 25-50 or 50-75 range too. I think it's well-recognized that recruiting rankings out of high school (or even NBA draft rankings) aren't an exact science, nor do I think anyone is really arguing that guys in this range never excel or exceed expectations.
    It could be that we'll be looking at players ranked this high if the NBA changes their entrance rule for high school players.

    GoDuke!

  15. #2055
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    This is a fun list, and there are certainly some standout college players and some NBA players among these names--I'm not super confident I know what the point of this exercise is, though. Is it to show that, occasionally, a guy in the 85-100 range hits? My guess is that from that same timeframe, you could find an equally or more compelling list of names in the 25-50 or 50-75 range too. I think it's well-recognized that recruiting rankings out of high school (or even NBA draft rankings) aren't an exact science, nor do I think anyone is really arguing that guys in this range never excel or exceed expectations.
    Previous posts has discussed that Duke hasn’t had all conference level players in this range and this was to show that those type of guys do exist. Apologies if I didn’t explicitly draw that connection.

    I’d add that yes, there are obviously going to be an impressive list of players from 30-75 but I made this list partially as a response to my own hypothesis that guys down near the 100ish ranking are going to be slightly more patient for playing time. So it was a comment that a) it’s exciting to get a guy who is sniffing that range and b) that it would be exciting to me if that continued periodically.

  16. #2056
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    I should have said All ACC, defensive star or NCAAT star.
    Look, far be it for me to quash a fun conversation, but what does "can he be All ACC?" have to do with the recruitment of Blakes? I would be delighted if the kid turned into a star like that, but I have not seen anyone here talking about anything like that for him.

    What the vast majority of us seem to be saying is he can provide a solid practice body, help out with short bursts of ballhandling during some games, provide insurance in case something horrible happens to Roach, and perhaps develop into a more meaningful contributor in a year or two or three.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #2057
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Look, far be it for me to quash a fun conversation, but what does "can he be All ACC?" have to do with the recruitment of Blakes? I would be delighted if the kid turned into a star like that, but I have not seen anyone here talking about anything like that for him.

    What the vast majority of us seem to be saying is he can provide a solid practice body, help out with short bursts of ballhandling during some games, provide insurance in case something horrible happens to Roach, and perhaps develop into a more meaningful contributor in a year or two or three.
    I donít see anyone disagreeing with you or saying that Blakes is only a worthwhile take if we think heís going to hit the all-conference level of performance. But I also donít see the harm in commentating on what a playersí upside might be. Perhaps Iím missing something though.

  18. #2058
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Atlanta 'burbs
    Not meaning to point out anyone in particular, but I hope that our 4 star targets donít read some of the posts about their potential (or lack thereof) on the team. How about letting kids come to Duke, do their best, and represent Duke.

  19. #2059
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Look, far be it for me to quash a fun conversation, but what does "can he be All ACC?" have to do with the recruitment of Blakes? I would be delighted if the kid turned into a star like that, but I have not seen anyone here talking about anything like that for him.

    What the vast majority of us seem to be saying is he can provide a solid practice body, help out with short bursts of ballhandling during some games, provide insurance in case something horrible happens to Roach, and perhaps develop into a more meaningful contributor in a year or two or three.
    If that kids does what he did in those videos- he will be all ACC. He never missed a shot. Impressive.
    dukelifer

  20. #2060
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    At a ~100 ranking, Blakes will likely have a little more patience. Also, he seems incredibly academically inclined (according to Rivals, he is considering Harvard, Yale, Columbia, Georgetown, and Stanford in addition to Duke and bunch of other schools).
    Quote Originally Posted by TruBlu View Post
    Not meaning to point out anyone in particular, but I hope that our 4 star targets donít read some of the posts about their potential (or lack thereof) on the team. How about letting kids come to Duke, do their best, and represent Duke.
    This. Some of the performance expectations I'm reading here are downright ridiculous. I prefer realism. I will gladly take a 4-year practice player getting modest increases in minutes each season, so long as he makes the All-ACC Academic Team every year, wins a Rhodes Scholarship, and heads a political think tank that works behind the scenes to get Shane Battier into public office.

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