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  1. #1141
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Greensboro

    Hmmm...

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, I don't even know what "make or break" means? Is the implication that if we only add Banchero and Griffin that we won't have had a great recruiting year? Is the implication that without Keels Duke is not a national title contender next season? I don't see that at all. Roach, Steward, Griffin, Moore, Banchero, Williams, Brakefield, and possibly Goldwire (or Hurt?!?!) is easily a national title contender. Keels would be a wonderful add, but isn't even in the ballpark of being a "make or break" recruit.
    I'm sorry, but IMO, nothing that Roach, Steward, Goldwire and Moore have done sets them apart as an elite backcourt. Backcourts are where championships are won. If what the "experts" say about Keels is true, his addition to any of those who are still with us "makes" us an elite team...

  2. #1142
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Unless something weird happens with a new grad transfer, Goldwire, Buckmire and Tapé will be the last three Duke MBB players born in the 1990s.

    I think Miles Plumlee was the last born in the 1980s?
    Last edited by throatybeard; 02-26-2021 at 07:45 PM.

  3. #1143
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by revmel53 View Post
    I'm sorry, but IMO, nothing that Roach, Steward, Goldwire and Moore have done sets them apart as an elite backcourt. Backcourts are where championships are won. If what the "experts" say about Keels is true, his addition to any of those who are still with us "makes" us an elite team...
    Remember how elite a sophomore Nolan Smith and junior Jon Scheyer looked heading into the 09-10 season? [end sarcasm]

    Keels as a freshman isn’t likely to be better than Roach and Steward as a sophomore. Unlike Banchero and Griffin, he isn’t thought of as a world-beater recruit.

  4. #1144
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by revmel53 View Post
    I'm sorry, but IMO, nothing that Roach, Steward, Goldwire and Moore have done sets them apart as an elite backcourt. Backcourts are where championships are won. If what the "experts" say about Keels is true, his addition to any of those who are still with us "makes" us an elite team...
    Someone has a case of “shiny-new-toy-itis”. Keels is ranked 17; Roach was ranked 20. Keels, right now, is arguably just a shooter.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  5. #1145
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    In your head.
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Unless something weird happens with a new grad transfer, Goldwire, Buckmire and Tapé will be the last three Duke MBB players born in the 1990s.

    I think Miles Plumlee was the last born in the 1980s?
    Way to make me feel old.

  6. #1146
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Unless something weird happens with a new grad transfer, Goldwire, Buckmire and Tapé will be the last three Duke MBB players born in the 1990s.

    I think Miles Plumlee was the last born in the 1980s?
    Because I don't have a life, I was curious who the last player was from the 1970s. I thought it might be Christensen since he was around for so long but it is actually Casey Sanders - he was born 10/23/79 so turned 20 shortly after he started at Duke in 1999 and was 23 when he graduated in spring 2003. Hopefully some of you will sleep better tonight knowing that.

  7. #1147
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Rougemont Nebulae
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Unless something weird happens with a new grad transfer, Goldwire, Buckmire and Tapé will be the last three Duke MBB players born in the 1990s.

    I think Miles Plumlee was the last born in the 1980s?
    Makes my weekend. Thanks.

  8. #1148
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Because I don't have a life, I was curious who the last player was from the 1970s. I thought it might be Christensen since he was around for so long but it is actually Casey Sanders - he was born 10/23/79 so turned 20 shortly after he started at Duke in 1999 and was 23 when he graduated in spring 2003. Hopefully some of you will sleep better tonight knowing that.
    And I'm not sure about the 1960s, but I do know Christian is my mother's birthday (8/17) in 1969, and Brian is 1970. Dunno about Ron Burt.

  9. #1149
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Someone has a case of “shiny-new-toy-itis”. Keels is ranked 17; Roach was ranked 20. Keels, right now, is arguably just a shooter.
    And don't forget defense. Keels hasn't played a single second of Duke defense yet. It took Jeremy Roach and DJ Steward about 3 months to learn passable Duke D... heck, when I watch the games right now they still sometimes look like they are only barely passing. Banchero and Griffin have the kind of length, footspeed that can make them good defenders from day one (plus, they both have reps as strong defenders). Keels just isn't that same kind of player.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  10. #1150
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Goldwire said nothing of the sort.

    Here's what he said on yesterday's Zoom media call.

    "This is our last home game against Louisville, so, I am a senior, so it definitely has come across my mind that it could possibly be my last game. Honestly, I haven't felt it too much because we've been focused on the game. . . . it hasn't crossed my mind too much."
    Via Instagram, Goldwire stated that tomorrow is his last home game with “the mob”.

  11. #1151
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Someone has a case of “shiny-new-toy-itis”. Keels is ranked 17; Roach was ranked 20. Keels, right now, is arguably just a shooter.
    I dunno, the way Keels was putting up triple doubles he could move up a bit.

    But I think your point is still valid.

  12. #1152
    Quote Originally Posted by bullettoothtony View Post
    I dunno, the way Keels was putting up triple doubles he could move up a bit.

    But I think your point is still valid.
    Actually, since the Summer RSCI, Keels has dropped four spots in both ESPN and Rivals (he's stayed the same in 247). Obviously he could go up again in those services, but so far at least he's moving down, not up.

  13. #1153
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Actually, since the Summer RSCI, Keels has dropped four spots in both ESPN and Rivals (he's stayed the same in 247). Obviously he could go up again in those services, but so far at least he's moving down, not up.
    I will take him.

  14. #1154
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by 53n206 View Post
    I will take him.
    I don't think anyone is saying we should turn him down. We are (or at least I am) saying that I don't think he is a "make or break" recruit, or anything close to that. And that I'm not convinced he'll be better than sophomore versions of Roach and Steward or a junior version of Moore.

  15. #1155
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    I’ve been reading a lot of these threads and the comments therein where folks are really really confident in what this guy or that guy can and can’t do, how good this guy or that is going to be, etc. Maybe the ratings are right on the money and the Evals are on target etc. But with this group I’m holding off on much in the way of definitive statements. All the evals are based on play through only their junior years of basketball (and many didn’t even finish that) and they’ve pretty much all missed summer ball last year and anything this year. With a few exceptions. But the amount of basketball that has gone into the evals for this group is far less than usual due to Covid-related cancellations of games and seasons so I’m thinking the ratings are likely to be off more than they usually are. I still am very bullish on the guys we’re bringing in and still recruiting but I’m needing to see what they’ve got once they start, you know, playing basketball again.

  16. #1156
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I don't think anyone is saying we should turn him down. We are (or at least I am) saying that I don't think he is a "make or break" recruit, or anything close to that. And that I'm not convinced he'll be better than sophomore versions of Roach and Steward or a junior version of Moore.
    I agree with this, tho I’m not sure its worth comparing him to Roach as he is the only pure PG on the team (tho I hope JGold returns).

    Steward: Will Keels be a better shooter/defender than a soph Steward? Always possible, but probably not. DJ is the 2nd best scorer on the team right now and a freshman Keels is likely to struggle adjusting to the 3 new point line + speed needed to get their shot off (as most freshman shooters do). Much more likely that DJ emerges as a high 30s-40% 3 point shooter and one of if not the top scorer on the team next year.

    Moore: On offense, I could see Keels being more effective than Moore next year. Moore has struggled on offense and has never been considered an offensive dynamo. Call it 50/50 in terms of who’s better on O. But Moore will be an upperclassmen leader & an important defensive presence (and will likely get a little better on O) so tough to see Keels supplanting him. Particularly as a lineup of Paolo, AJ & Steward should offer a lot of offensive firepower and K will value versatility and defense in that slot.

    Roach: only person who can realistically run the team next year, so he’s basically a lock to start the whole year...

    So I agree he’s not a make or break recruit for NEXT year, though I’d still love to have him. As we’ve frequently learned during the one-and-done era (like this year) we need to pair OADs with multi-year players in each class or we run the risk of having limited skilled upper class men down the line.

  17. #1157
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    I agree with this, tho I’m not sure its worth comparing him to Roach as he is the only pure PG on the team (tho I hope JGold returns).
    Do you really think Jeremy Roach is a "pure" PG? To me, he plays like a shooting guard who can handle the ball. His assist% isn't much different from Wendell's or DJ's:

    ASSIST%
    Jeremy Roach: 16.4%
    Wendell Moore: 16.0%
    DJ Steward: 14.1%

    For comparison's sake, Tre Jones's assist% last season was 31.4%.


    As as aside, Jeremy's TO% also doesn't scream "PG":

    TURNOVER%
    Jeremy Roach: 19.9%
    Wendell Moore: 15.7%
    DJ Steward: 14.7%

    Tre Jones had a 14.8% TO% last season.

  18. #1158
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    I agree with this, tho I’m not sure its worth comparing him to Roach as he is the only pure PG on the team (tho I hope JGold returns).

    Steward: Will Keels be a better shooter/defender than a soph Steward? Always possible, but probably not. DJ is the 2nd best scorer on the team right now and a freshman Keels is likely to struggle adjusting to the 3 new point line + speed needed to get their shot off (as most freshman shooters do). Much more likely that DJ emerges as a high 30s-40% 3 point shooter and one of if not the top scorer on the team next year.

    Moore: On offense, I could see Keels being more effective than Moore next year. Moore has struggled on offense and has never been considered an offensive dynamo. Call it 50/50 in terms of who’s better on O. But Moore will be an upperclassmen leader & an important defensive presence (and will likely get a little better on O) so tough to see Keels supplanting him. Particularly as a lineup of Paolo, AJ & Steward should offer a lot of offensive firepower and K will value versatility and defense in that slot.

    Roach: only person who can realistically run the team next year, so he’s basically a lock to start the whole year...

    So I agree he’s not a make or break recruit for NEXT year, though I’d still love to have him. As we’ve frequently learned during the one-and-done era (like this year) we need to pair OADs with multi-year players in each class or we run the risk of having limited skilled upper class men down the line.
    I more or less agree with this, although I am still on the Moore bandwagon. I see him becoming a high-level player at Duke, either next year or as a senior.

    With regards to Keels, my expectation if he comes to Duke is that he will be on the team for 2 years at minimum. He is ranked 16th by 247Sports composite for his recruiting class. That's an important threshold, outside of the top 15, for Duke. Over the last decade, only 2 players ranked outside the top 15 on 247Sports in their recruiting class has ended up as one-and-done players for Duke. Duke has had more players in the 11-20 range stay multiple years, including Matt Hurt (12), Tre Jones (15), and Marques Bolden (14). If you tighten things up to top 10, only a handful of players have gone pro following their freshman year, including Justise Winslow (13 in class of 2014), Frank Jackson (13 in class of 2016), Gary Trent, Jr. (17 in class of 2017), Cassius Stanley (37 in class of 2019), and Jalen Johnson (13 in class of 2020). From that group, Stanley was kind of an outlier as he was much older than other freshman. Keels is age-appropriate for his recruiting class at 17 years old as of today. There's a small chance he blows up and goes pro. With that being said, I see him as a multi-year recruit at Duke (or Nova or Virginia, for that matter).

    What I do think he represents is the quality of guard depth for Duke next season as well as the quality of Duke's team in 2022-23. I expect DJ Steward will be the 2nd or maybe even leading scorer next year and will go pro. Having Keels as presumptive starting guard for Duke as a sophomore will give the team a high floor. In that sense, he could make or break Duke's 2022-23 team.

  19. #1159
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I’ve been reading a lot of these threads and the comments therein where folks are really really confident in what this guy or that guy can and can’t do, how good this guy or that is going to be, etc. Maybe the ratings are right on the money and the Evals are on target etc. But with this group I’m holding off on much in the way of definitive statements. All the evals are based on play through only their junior years of basketball (and many didn’t even finish that) and they’ve pretty much all missed summer ball last year and anything this year. With a few exceptions. But the amount of basketball that has gone into the evals for this group is far less than usual due to Covid-related cancellations of games and seasons so I’m thinking the ratings are likely to be off more than they usually are. I still am very bullish on the guys we’re bringing in and still recruiting but I’m needing to see what they’ve got once they start, you know, playing basketball again.
    Remember highly-rated Jalen Johnson (2020).

  20. #1160
    Quote Originally Posted by Bay Area Duke Fan View Post
    Remember highly-rated Jalen Johnson (2020).
    Who?

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