Unless something weird happens with a new grad transfer, Goldwire, Buckmire and Tapé will be the last three Duke MBB players born in the 1990s.
I think Miles Plumlee was the last born in the 1980s?
I'm sorry, but IMO, nothing that Roach, Steward, Goldwire and Moore have done sets them apart as an elite backcourt. Backcourts are where championships are won. If what the "experts" say about Keels is true, his addition to any of those who are still with us "makes" us an elite team...
Unless something weird happens with a new grad transfer, Goldwire, Buckmire and Tapé will be the last three Duke MBB players born in the 1990s.
I think Miles Plumlee was the last born in the 1980s?
Last edited by throatybeard; 02-26-2021 at 07:45 PM.
Remember how elite a sophomore Nolan Smith and junior Jon Scheyer looked heading into the 09-10 season? [end sarcasm]
Keels as a freshman isn’t likely to be better than Roach and Steward as a sophomore. Unlike Banchero and Griffin, he isn’t thought of as a world-beater recruit.
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill
President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club
Because I don't have a life, I was curious who the last player was from the 1970s. I thought it might be Christensen since he was around for so long but it is actually Casey Sanders - he was born 10/23/79 so turned 20 shortly after he started at Duke in 1999 and was 23 when he graduated in spring 2003. Hopefully some of you will sleep better tonight knowing that.
And don't forget defense. Keels hasn't played a single second of Duke defense yet. It took Jeremy Roach and DJ Steward about 3 months to learn passable Duke D... heck, when I watch the games right now they still sometimes look like they are only barely passing. Banchero and Griffin have the kind of length, footspeed that can make them good defenders from day one (plus, they both have reps as strong defenders). Keels just isn't that same kind of player.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I don't think anyone is saying we should turn him down. We are (or at least I am) saying that I don't think he is a "make or break" recruit, or anything close to that. And that I'm not convinced he'll be better than sophomore versions of Roach and Steward or a junior version of Moore.
I’ve been reading a lot of these threads and the comments therein where folks are really really confident in what this guy or that guy can and can’t do, how good this guy or that is going to be, etc. Maybe the ratings are right on the money and the Evals are on target etc. But with this group I’m holding off on much in the way of definitive statements. All the evals are based on play through only their junior years of basketball (and many didn’t even finish that) and they’ve pretty much all missed summer ball last year and anything this year. With a few exceptions. But the amount of basketball that has gone into the evals for this group is far less than usual due to Covid-related cancellations of games and seasons so I’m thinking the ratings are likely to be off more than they usually are. I still am very bullish on the guys we’re bringing in and still recruiting but I’m needing to see what they’ve got once they start, you know, playing basketball again.
I agree with this, tho I’m not sure its worth comparing him to Roach as he is the only pure PG on the team (tho I hope JGold returns).
Steward: Will Keels be a better shooter/defender than a soph Steward? Always possible, but probably not. DJ is the 2nd best scorer on the team right now and a freshman Keels is likely to struggle adjusting to the 3 new point line + speed needed to get their shot off (as most freshman shooters do). Much more likely that DJ emerges as a high 30s-40% 3 point shooter and one of if not the top scorer on the team next year.
Moore: On offense, I could see Keels being more effective than Moore next year. Moore has struggled on offense and has never been considered an offensive dynamo. Call it 50/50 in terms of who’s better on O. But Moore will be an upperclassmen leader & an important defensive presence (and will likely get a little better on O) so tough to see Keels supplanting him. Particularly as a lineup of Paolo, AJ & Steward should offer a lot of offensive firepower and K will value versatility and defense in that slot.
Roach: only person who can realistically run the team next year, so he’s basically a lock to start the whole year...
So I agree he’s not a make or break recruit for NEXT year, though I’d still love to have him. As we’ve frequently learned during the one-and-done era (like this year) we need to pair OADs with multi-year players in each class or we run the risk of having limited skilled upper class men down the line.
Do you really think Jeremy Roach is a "pure" PG? To me, he plays like a shooting guard who can handle the ball. His assist% isn't much different from Wendell's or DJ's:
ASSIST%
Jeremy Roach: 16.4%
Wendell Moore: 16.0%
DJ Steward: 14.1%
For comparison's sake, Tre Jones's assist% last season was 31.4%.
As as aside, Jeremy's TO% also doesn't scream "PG":
TURNOVER%
Jeremy Roach: 19.9%
Wendell Moore: 15.7%
DJ Steward: 14.7%
Tre Jones had a 14.8% TO% last season.
I more or less agree with this, although I am still on the Moore bandwagon. I see him becoming a high-level player at Duke, either next year or as a senior.
With regards to Keels, my expectation if he comes to Duke is that he will be on the team for 2 years at minimum. He is ranked 16th by 247Sports composite for his recruiting class. That's an important threshold, outside of the top 15, for Duke. Over the last decade, only 2 players ranked outside the top 15 on 247Sports in their recruiting class has ended up as one-and-done players for Duke. Duke has had more players in the 11-20 range stay multiple years, including Matt Hurt (12), Tre Jones (15), and Marques Bolden (14). If you tighten things up to top 10, only a handful of players have gone pro following their freshman year, including Justise Winslow (13 in class of 2014), Frank Jackson (13 in class of 2016), Gary Trent, Jr. (17 in class of 2017), Cassius Stanley (37 in class of 2019), and Jalen Johnson (13 in class of 2020). From that group, Stanley was kind of an outlier as he was much older than other freshman. Keels is age-appropriate for his recruiting class at 17 years old as of today. There's a small chance he blows up and goes pro. With that being said, I see him as a multi-year recruit at Duke (or Nova or Virginia, for that matter).
What I do think he represents is the quality of guard depth for Duke next season as well as the quality of Duke's team in 2022-23. I expect DJ Steward will be the 2nd or maybe even leading scorer next year and will go pro. Having Keels as presumptive starting guard for Duke as a sophomore will give the team a high floor. In that sense, he could make or break Duke's 2022-23 team.