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  1. #2101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Natty_B View Post
    Sure the commit will come but the issue is he’s going to commit Milwaukee.
    I sadly agree, but I can't get past the argument that 'ok, so, he's going to play for his dad, obviously, buuutttttt, ummmmm, why is he waiting so long to declare when he could've tried to pull another top-20 or top-50 recruit or two in to join him with an early commitment?'

    Of course, that was the same argument that was bandied about with Cade Cunningham when there were other top prospects also considering OKSt who could've seen his early commitment and quickly followed suit, and we all saw how that ended up.
    Haters gonna hate.

  2. #2102
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    Quote Originally Posted by accfanfrom1970 View Post
    And we loved and so wanted Antonio, Alex. Marty (who does’t foul) and the rest to succeed and be that guy that we root for and ride off into the sunset.
    The OG Marty who doesn't foul was Martin Nessley.

  3. #2103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Yeah, my main point was he's either (a) a legitimate 100-ish guy, in which case we should keep our expectations low; OR (b) he's really underrated because COVID and we cannot expect him to be a patient, wait-your-turn practice player for at least two years. We can't have it both ways.
    This is just kind of a weird thing to say. You've said it twice now, and I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. In the first place, his actual rating - whether exactly spot-on or whether it undershoots - helps determine both Duke's and his own perceptions of where he fits in the basketball pantheon right now. If he proves in practice and on the court that he is really much better than current assessments, I'm sure both he and Duke will agree that expectations were wrong and he doesn't need to be patient. And I don't think any of us want him to be patient for the sake of being patient. If he plays like a stud and goes pro, well, in the meantime, we got studly play. Is there anyone on the board who would be unhappy with that?

    What's more, his own statements have indicated he values education, so if he doesn't look like a certainty to make million-dollar money at the next level, playing somewhat better than expected is not likely to draw him into the pros just so he can be a second-rounder. He's much more likely to take the education, and THEN do the late-round draft pick thing.

    So, yeah. He can't both be a two-year practice player and severely underrated, but...so what?

  4. #2104
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    This is just kind of a weird thing to say. You've said it twice now, and I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. In the first place, his actual rating - whether exactly spot-on or whether it undershoots - helps determine both Duke's and his own perceptions of where he fits in the basketball pantheon right now. If he proves in practice and on the court that he is really much better than current assessments, I'm sure both he and Duke will agree that expectations were wrong and he doesn't need to be patient. And I don't think any of us want him to be patient for the sake of being patient. If he plays like a stud and goes pro, well, in the meantime, we got studly play. Is there anyone on the board who would be unhappy with that?

    What's more, his own statements have indicated he values education, so if he doesn't look like a certainty to make million-dollar money at the next level, playing somewhat better than expected is not likely to draw him into the pros just so he can be a second-rounder. He's much more likely to take the education, and THEN do the late-round draft pick thing.

    So, yeah. He can't both be a two-year practice player and severely underrated, but...so what?
    People have said in this thread that they're excited about this recruit because his ranking means he's going to be a four-year player (some have even suggested being in the 100-ish range is better than being in the 50 to 85 range, because the guy around 100 won't transfer because he'll have lower expectations). Other people have responded to the first group by saying his ranking also makes it likely he won't be a big contributor outside of practice. Then some in the first group has responded back by saying, yeah but maybe he's underrated! I'm suggesting that's a circular and unpersuasive argument. Which I don't think is a weird thing to say. YMMV.

  5. #2105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Yeah, my main point was he's either (a) a legitimate 100-ish guy, in which case we should keep our expectations low; OR (b) he's really underrated because COVID and we cannot expect him to be a patient, wait-your-turn practice player for at least two years. We can't have it both ways.

    And thrilled you should be. As DBA has argued, a Jordan Goldwire-like progression would be incredible. While it's possible this guy is the true "diamond in the rough," if he's really a 100-ish guy, the more likely Duke analog would be along the lines of Nick Horvath, Andre Sweet, or Andre Buckner. Even Nate Britt (#93 out of high school) would be better than we can reasonably expect.

    Because Jordan Goldwire was, in fact, a "diamond in the rough." Is it possible Blakes is too? Sure. Is it likely? Not close. Saying that the guy is more highly regarded than Goldwire out of high school isn't the point. As I said in an earlier post, Andre Buckner may have been more highly regarded out of high school than Jordan Goldwire. Or put another way, twelve years ago, Derrick Williams of Arizona was the #100 recruit. He probably wasn't any more highly regarded out of high school than Jaylen Blakes. And yet two years later, he was the #2 pick in the NBA draft. Is it reasonable to think Blakes will be the #2 player in the draft in two years, or would that be highly optimistic? Same goes for Goldwire, it's just a matter of degree.

    Don't worry, nobody will tell you that.
    I think we may need to start recalibrating in general. Prior to 2019, a guy like Mark Williams was relatively unlikely to start at Duke as a freshman, and a guy like Cassius Stanley was very unlikely to start at Duke as a freshman. Yet each did. Prior to this year, Duke starting 3 freshmen rated 20th or lower was virtually unheard of in the RSCI era. Yet, we did so this past year. So while it is true that a player rated outside the top-100 has historically been unlikely to become a key starter at Duke, the times may be changing a bit. With more and more early entry and transfer movement, it appears we appear to be having less success keeping the types of guys around that have historically tethered lower-tier recruits to the bench. Now, guys are playing earlier despite being rated lower than we've typically seen, just by virtue of not having the combination of enough top talent and experience to prevent it. And perhaps that means guys rated outside the top-75 have a better chance of finding roles if they stay around long enough.

    Nationally, there is nothing about being a borderline top-100 recruit that prevents one from becoming a stud at a major college program. Many schools do it pretty regularly, actually. Just look at the classes of 2017 and 2018 for example: of the RSCI 81-100 in those two years, 28 (and counting) have become starters at a P6 school or Gonzaga. Only Kellan Grady (and he's TBD now having transferred to a major program), Khalil Garland (who retired due to a heart condition), Jacob Epperson, DeAundre Ballard (who was a regular before transferring as a junior), Terrence Lewis (a regular who sat out this year) didn't from the 2017 group, and some of those stand a reasonable chance of making it happen next year (Grady would have probably done it already had he not chosen to play at Davidson). Of the 2018 group, Many of those guys did it from their freshman years, and some became stars. Of the 2018 guys, 7 haven't made it yet, but that includes two stars at UNLV and Harvard who could eventually transfer to a P6 school, and the chronically-injured Robby Carmody. So we're probably talking about a roughly 75+% chance that a guy in the 81-100 range becomes a starter at a P6 (or Gonzaga) school.

    I think it's important to note that Blakes has a rating more like Andre Sweet, Marshall and Miles Plumlee, or Melchionni moreso than like White, Buckner, Goldwire, or even Tyler Thornton. I don't think it's appropriate to cut off at 100 and lump them all in together. And obviously Plumlees Elder and Younger and Melchionni became regulars as upperclassmen. As did Thornton, even in an era where top recruits stayed longer. I'd say that they provide evidence that seeing Blakes as an eventual regular is a not unreasonable expectation. There would of course be the risk that he could decide to transfer early (like Sweet, who averaged 11 mpg as a frosh before getting suspended academically and then transferring and starting in the Big East; or like Tucker) and doesn't develop at Duke. But I don't think that Blakes turning into a starter or key regular would be nearly as incredible as Goldwire's progression was.

    None of this is meant to say that I think Blakes is a given to become a starter or key regular at Duke (assuming he chooses Duke at all). It's just that I don't think a borderline top-100 guy making it into a key rotation role is really a "diamond in the rough." That's pretty common in major D-1 ball. It's just that our perspective has been skewed by usually having 8-10 top-40 guys pushing that top-100 guy out of the picture. There are certainly guys in the 80-120 range who don't pan out as regulars at major D-1 programs. But I'd guess it's more of a coin flip or 1 in 3 proposition rather than a shocking occurrence, even considering Duke as opposed to other P6 schools.

    All that said, I hope he chooses Duke, and I hope it proves to be a good decision for him and for Duke.
    Last edited by CDu; 04-14-2021 at 05:06 PM.

  6. #2106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    This is just kind of a weird thing to say. You've said it twice now, and I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. In the first place, his actual rating - whether exactly spot-on or whether it undershoots - helps determine both Duke's and his own perceptions of where he fits in the basketball pantheon right now. If he proves in practice and on the court that he is really much better than current assessments, I'm sure both he and Duke will agree that expectations were wrong and he doesn't need to be patient. And I don't think any of us want him to be patient for the sake of being patient. If he plays like a stud and goes pro, well, in the meantime, we got studly play. Is there anyone on the board who would be unhappy with that?

    What's more, his own statements have indicated he values education, so if he doesn't look like a certainty to make million-dollar money at the next level, playing somewhat better than expected is not likely to draw him into the pros just so he can be a second-rounder. He's much more likely to take the education, and THEN do the late-round draft pick thing.

    So, yeah. He can't both be a two-year practice player and severely underrated, but...so what?
    Let me echo Kedsy's post, and also say that YES x1,000 if Blakes (who, of course hasn't committed to Duke at the time of this post) exceeds expectations and heads to the NBA early, there will still be plenty of people on this board who will bemoan the situation. Especially if he's not a first round draft pick, and even after he talked about how important academics are to him (Frank Jackson did the exact same thing). Top recruits are universally hyper-competitive, which is why they're top recruits (even in the 100+ range). Many/most want to compete at the highest level.

    Anyway, I reconsidered even posting this, multiple times, because it's wildly premature and laughably futile--but here we are in the offseason on a college hoops recruiting thread. I wouldn't have it any other way.
    Haters gonna hate.

  7. #2107
    If we have a chance with Baldwin, the Hurt departure can only help.

  8. #2108
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilYouKnow View Post
    If we have a chance with Baldwin, the Hurt departure can only help.
    Amen to that.

  9. #2109
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilYouKnow View Post
    If we have a chance with Baldwin, the Hurt departure can only help.
    I think it could be a case of Baldwin waiting for confirmation of this before making up his mind.

    I'm sure Keels was also in a similar situation with the DJ situation.

  10. #2110
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehk View Post
    I think it could be a case of Baldwin waiting for confirmation of this before making up his mind.

    I'm sure Keels was also in a similar situation with the DJ situation.
    My personal take on both situations is that they were a coincidence of timing more than anything. The departure of Steward has a lot more to do with the recent involvement with Jaylen Blakes.

  11. #2111
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    My personal take on both situations is that they were a coincidence of timing more than anything. The departure of Steward has a lot more to do with the recent involvement with Jaylen Blakes.
    Again, I think this is probably right, but it doesn't reconcile why PBJ hasn't committed to his dad already to make the lure of the UWM program more appealing to other recruits. Even if UWM isn't pursuing another top-whatever prospect, surely his dad is making recruiting pushes to bring in other players right? Doesn't that sell get appreciably easier (in most cases) if he's also selling that the team will be legitimately competitive with a top-5 player on the roster? That is, unless the recruit in question would be losing burn to PBJ, but again, that would only be for a year and we're probably not talking about other top-5, -10, or -25 recruit here.
    Haters gonna hate.

  12. #2112
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    Again, I think this is probably right, but it doesn't reconcile why PBJ hasn't committed to his dad already to make the lure of the UWM program more appealing to other recruits. Even if UWM isn't pursuing another top-whatever prospect, surely his dad is making recruiting pushes to bring in other players right? Doesn't that sell get appreciably easier (in most cases) if he's also selling that the team will be legitimately competitive with a top-5 player on the roster? That is, unless the recruit in question would be losing burn to PBJ, but again, that would only be for a year and we're probably not talking about other top-5, -10, or -25 recruit here.
    It may very well be coincidence (and as much based on our hope), but PBJ not having committed yet, in light of the word two weeks ago being that an announcement was "any day now", and that one would be made as early as Apr. 2, makes me wonder what the delay is, not to mention the benefit and buzz an earlier commitment to play for his dad might have brought. Again, here's hoping that delay is in part due to Hurt's decision. That would be a good sign for us.

  13. #2113
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    It may very well be coincidence (and as much based on our hope), but PBJ not having committed yet, in light of the word two weeks ago being that an announcement was "any day now", and that one would be made as early as Apr. 2, makes me wonder what the delay is, not to mention the benefit and buzz an earlier commitment to play for his dad might have brought. Again, here's hoping that delay is in part due to Hurt's decision. That would be a good sign for us.
    Am I the only one who sees the outreach to Theo John as a negative indicator on our chances with PBJ? I know they are very different players, but just in terms of filling out the roster.

  14. #2114
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    I'm in the minority here...

    ...but I think there is a decent chance PBJ comes to Duke. He's listed as a SF on most sites, and while I understand Coach K loves taking big SFs who can shoot and repurposing them as PFs, the truth is PBJ's shooting at the 3 would produce just a nasty shooting line up at the 2-4 with an enormous 5 and a quick 1. A starting line up of Roach, Griffin, PBJ, Banchero, and Williams would be frightening.

    Defensively, this team would be pretty poor at M2M, but zone would be fantastic. That length, athleticism, and quickness would be destructive.

    This team would be top 5 offensively and top 20 defensively. That's a top 3 team in the country.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

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  15. #2115
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    Again, I think this is probably right, but it doesn't reconcile why PBJ hasn't committed to his dad already to make the lure of the UWM program more appealing to other recruits. Even if UWM isn't pursuing another top-whatever prospect, surely his dad is making recruiting pushes to bring in other players right? Doesn't that sell get appreciably easier (in most cases) if he's also selling that the team will be legitimately competitive with a top-5 player on the roster? That is, unless the recruit in question would be losing burn to PBJ, but again, that would only be for a year and we're probably not talking about other top-5, -10, or -25 recruit here.
    For the past few weeks or maybe longer (what is time these days?), my view has been that Jr is waiting on the employment situation involving Sr, whatever that may be. The coaching carousel is swinging fast and there are a lot of job openings. For Sr, that gives him leverage at UW Milwaukee. He just finished his fourth year there. Does the school want to extend him? Does another school want to hire him? Is he waiting for another domino to fall?

    It is fairly common to take a job opening and use it to get a raise or extension at your current job. Look at what happened with Nolan Smith. Last summer, he was a serious candidate to join Penny Hardaway at Memphis. He was given a strong counter from the Duke coaching staff and now he's an assistant.

    I think the PBJ ship sailed for Duke a while ago. That's all well and good as the roster at wing/forward is more than well-stocked. Between Baker, Moore, Griffin, and Keels, that's about the best collection of talent you'll find in the college game next season. The most likely landing spot for Patrick Baldwin Jr is to anchor down with his dad. It's his dad that is still out at sea.

  16. #2116
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    For the past few weeks or maybe longer (what is time these days?), my view has been that Jr is waiting on the employment situation involving Sr, whatever that may be. The coaching carousel is swinging fast and there are a lot of job openings. For Sr, that gives him leverage at UW Milwaukee. He just finished his fourth year there. Does the school want to extend him? Does another school want to hire him? Is he waiting for another domino to fall?

    It is fairly common to take a job opening and use it to get a raise or extension at your current job. Look at what happened with Nolan Smith. Last summer, he was a serious candidate to join Penny Hardaway at Memphis. He was given a strong counter from the Duke coaching staff and now he's an assistant.

    I think the PBJ ship sailed for Duke a while ago. That's all well and good as the roster at wing/forward is more than well-stocked. Between Baker, Moore, Griffin, and Keels, that's about the best collection of talent you'll find in the college game next season. The most likely landing spot for Patrick Baldwin Jr is to anchor down with his dad. It's his dad that is still out at sea.
    Agree 100%. Baker, Moore, Griffin and Keels (and maybe Paolo on ocassion) can all play on the wing, and many of them can slide down to the 4. That's a really solid group of talent and experience (Baker/Moore) for the modern college game. PBJ coming would present a bit of a fraught situation trying to balance his pure talent and getting a junior Moore the minutes he'll likely need to be a team leader.

    If PBJ wants to come to Duke we should welcome him with open arms and figure out the challenges from there. But I don't think we should hold out hope. All indications from recruiting insiders are that that ship has sailed, and our roster makeup for next year seems to indicate that as well.
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  17. #2117
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Agree 100%. Baker, Moore, Griffin and Keels (and maybe Paolo on ocassion) can all play on the wing, and many of them can slide down to the 4. That's a really solid group of talent and experience (Baker/Moore) for the modern college game. PBJ coming would present a bit of a fraught situation trying to balance his pure talent and getting a junior Moore the minutes he'll likely need to be a team leader.

    If PBJ wants to come to Duke we should welcome him with open arms and figure out the challenges from there. But I don't think we should hold out hope. All indications from recruiting insiders are that that ship has sailed, and our roster makeup for next year seems to indicate that as well.
    This would be the only issue, but Coach K has a history of recruiting excellent players, regardless of who is on the roster (a nicer way of saying he recruits over players. I, for one, do not think this is an issue).

    I want PBJ, kinda like I wanted Zion even though, at the time, many of us thought we didn't need him (and oh boy, were we wrong).
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

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  18. #2118
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    I view the Baldwin situation a lot like I viewed the Hurt situation: it would be fabulous to have him, but the likelihood seems pretty low.

    Yes, retaining Hurt or landing Baldwin would create some challenging rotation/lineup questions, and would probably make some returnees unhappy in terms of playing time. But they would be terrific talents so I'd love to have them. They'd also introduce some defensive challenges as compared with not having them.

    But, ultimately, it sounds as though it's very unlikely that Baldwin comes to Duke, just like it was very unlikely that Hurt was going to stay for a third year.

  19. #2119
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    For the past few weeks or maybe longer (what is time these days?), my view has been that Jr is waiting on the employment situation involving Sr, whatever that may be. The coaching carousel is swinging fast and there are a lot of job openings. For Sr, that gives him leverage at UW Milwaukee. He just finished his fourth year there. Does the school want to extend him? Does another school want to hire him? Is he waiting for another domino to fall?

    It is fairly common to take a job opening and use it to get a raise or extension at your current job. Look at what happened with Nolan Smith. Last summer, he was a serious candidate to join Penny Hardaway at Memphis. He was given a strong counter from the Duke coaching staff and now he's an assistant.

    I think the PBJ ship sailed for Duke a while ago. That's all well and good as the roster at wing/forward is more than well-stocked. Between Baker, Moore, Griffin, and Keels, that's about the best collection of talent you'll find in the college game next season. The most likely landing spot for Patrick Baldwin Jr is to anchor down with his dad. It's his dad that is still out at sea.
    I agree that the odds of him coming to Duke are pretty small, but every day that passes means there is still a chance. Is there any chance that he is considering the G-League? It seems like he comes from a fairly academically-minded family and I assume money is not an issue as his dad is a D-1 head coach, so one would think he is focused on college. But the NBA is really trying hard to make Team Ignite a successful, long-term proposition, recruiting the best players - I just read an article on ESPN from a few months ago saying they are going after the top 10 recruits and they did not specifically mention Baldwin.

  20. #2120
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    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    Am I the only one who sees the outreach to Theo John as a negative indicator on our chances with PBJ? I know they are very different players, but just in terms of filling out the roster.
    I thought we were still trying to get to ten recruited players so we could have legitimate scrimmages:

    Lessee...
    Five returning --
    • Joey Baker
    • Wendell Moore
    • Jeremy Roach
    • Mark Williams
    • Henry Coleman

    Three recruits --
    • Paolo Banchero
    • A.J. Griffin
    • Trevor Keels


    Need 2-3 more players.

    Looks like we're short of ten
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