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  1. #941
    $40,000 says you miss this putt ! I caught BD's above comment !

  2. #942
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Caelb Mills supposedly wants to play closer to home. Both NC State and UNC have contacted him in the past 24 hours or so. Kentucky is also interested. Kid is clearly a top-tier transfer. Many think the Tar Heels are the front-runner here.

    I'm not sure he is a great fit for us though, what with Roach and Steward fairly likely to return next season and Keels still potentially in the cards.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  3. #943
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Caelb Mills supposedly wants to play closer to home. Both NC State and UNC have contacted him in the past 24 hours or so. Kentucky is also interested. Kid is clearly a top-tier transfer. Many think the Tar Heels are the front-runner here.

    I'm not sure he is a great fit for us though, what with Roach and Steward fairly likely to return next season and Keels still potentially in the cards.
    I donít know. Keels may not choose Duke, some people (e.g., Troublemaker, et al) think Steward is OAD, and Goldwire has said he may not use his 5th year of eligibility. If so, weíll have exactly one guard on the team. In that case, Mills might be a great get, assuming heíll be eligible in 2021-22.

  4. #944
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I donít know. Keels may not choose Duke, some people (e.g., Troublemaker, et al) think Steward is OAD, and Goldwire has said he may not use his 5th year of eligibility. If so, weíll have exactly one guard on the team. In that case, Mills might be a great get, assuming heíll be eligible in 2021-22.
    I seriously doubt Duke will have one guard on the roster next year.

    Roach looks very much like a multi-year PG. I'm thrilled about that because he looks pretty good for a freshman. Getting another year at least with Roach and the development I hope he shows between freshman and sophomore season is a big deal. Duke was moving through PGs on a year-to-year basis. There's been continuity and high-level PG play over the past few years between Tre Jones and now Roach.

    Steward has the look of a high-level scorer but he has a size limitation that is going to cause NBA to question his fit. He either needs to show that he can run the PG position or start scoring at will from all three levels. It looks like his confidence in his shot is growing and he's hitting jumpers at a fairly high rate. His shooting inside the arc could improve and we haven't seen much in the way of a floater or midrange game. He's not quite there as a three-level scorer. If he's not a three-level scorer, he's going to have to be a scoring guard that can distribute. He's shown flashes but hasn't been relied on to create for others. Sam Vecenie released an updated draft board this week and had Steward as an early 2nd round selection right now. If he stays late 1st/early 2nd round, I think there's a fair chance Steward returns to show that he has mid-1st or lottery level talents.

    As for Goldwire, I could see him staying next year if he wanted to chase a championship. Otherwise, he would be relegated to a smaller role on the team next year with the expected roster. He's also been at Duke for 4 years. There's a lot to be said about these young men wanting to move on with their lives. I'm sure there will be several grad transfers and late bloomers that will stay in college for a free 5th year. But I still expect most will graduate and look to play professionally, go to grad school, or enter the job market like their non-athletic peers.

    If Roach is truly the only one to return next year, I bet we'll see at least one grad transfer to fill the hole. Keels is still a real possibility, too.

  5. #945
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    If Roach is truly the only one to return next year, I bet we'll see at least one grad transfer to fill the hole. Keels is still a real possibility, too.
    And/or a regular, instantly-eligible transfer like Mills. Which is what I was saying, in response to someone suggesting he wouldn't be a good fit because we might have too many guards next year.

  6. #946
    I like the backcourt we have now. Growing and getting better every game. I think Roach and Steward will be back. Replace Goldwire with Keels.

    Or get Keels and enjoy a 5th year of Goldwire playing for a ring.

  7. #947
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by dm9e24 View Post
    I like the backcourt we have now. Growing and getting better every game. I think Roach and Steward will be back. Replace Goldwire with Keels.

    Or get Keels and enjoy a 5th year of Goldwire playing for a ring.
    I was gonna give out "some gifts" for the game -- Matthew, haircut for Carter Whitt of Wake, etc. I would give myself the ability to watch DJ Steward for 3-4 years. He is a really instinctive basketball player that makes some wonderful plays.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  8. #948
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    If he stays late 1st/early 2nd round, I think there's a fair chance Steward returns to show that he has mid-1st or lottery level talents.
    Our recent track record has not proven this to be true. A more accurate description would be to say if a player receives a guarantee for an undrafted free agent contract, he is likely gone. If Steward's draft projection holds I would fully expect him to go, the likelihood of him moving from late-1st to the lottery is slim given his size, and he doesn't gain much moving from late-1st to mid-1st and losing a year.

  9. #949
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Our recent track record has not proven this to be true. A more accurate description would be to say if a player receives a guarantee for an undrafted free agent contract, he is likely gone. If Steward's draft projection holds I would fully expect him to go, the likelihood of him moving from late-1st to the lottery is slim given his size, and he doesn't gain much moving from late-1st to mid-1st and losing a year.
    Great point. I still like the chemistry developing in our backcourt this year. Let's see if Coach K reaches out to Mills to compete for minutes with those three if he is instant/eligible. We did offer Nembhard from Florida at the beginning of this year.

  10. #950
    Not so sure Steward will be back.

    He looks like a one and done, even if he goes second round. To be honest, he has all the tools to be a good pro. The only thing working against him is his size.

    I think Roach is definitely staying. I'd also be surprised if Goldwire doesn't stay for his 5th year. From all accounts he loves the school and would have a chance to play for an NT.

    Lets hope we get Keels and Baldwin soon.

    It seems to have gone quiet but I suppose the pandemic has played a huge part in disrupting everything.

  11. #951
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Our recent track record has not proven this to be true. A more accurate description would be to say if a player receives a guarantee for an undrafted free agent contract, he is likely gone. If Steward's draft projection holds I would fully expect him to go, the likelihood of him moving from late-1st to the lottery is slim given his size, and he doesn't gain much moving from late-1st to mid-1st and losing a year.
    If you're going on recent track record, it's something like 40% chance he returns. He has an obvious flaw - size. That can be mitigated by proving one or two things. He needs to prove that he can score at an outrageously high level and/or that he can run the point. With recent players that have gone pro - Stanley, Gary Trent, Jr., Frank Jackson, etc. - they each had a chance to work on their game to an extent. But I don't think they were going to overcome their flaws in the minds of NBA scouts. Put it another way, was another year going to change things for them? Maybe, maybe not. Stanley would only get older; Trent wasn't going to be focal point of the offense; Jackson wasn't going to be an effective point guard. But Steward will have a chance to improve his draft stock in ways others have by returning. Kennard proved he is an elite scorer. Tre Jones proved that he can improve as a shooter while maintaining upside as a defender and creator. Matthew Hurt is proving that he can score at a high level and improve his body to the point of being serviceable on defense (I doubt he goes in the first round, but there's a role for him on an NBA team).

    This is, ultimately, his choice. I don't have a good read on his camp or his desire to play in college vs the NBA. If I was in his camp, though, I'd point out that being a top scorer on a team that will compete for being #1 in the country could earn him a lot of attention.

  12. #952
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehk View Post
    Not so sure Steward will be back.

    He looks like a one and done, even if he goes second round. To be honest, he has all the tools to be a good pro. The only thing working against him is his size.

    I think Roach is definitely staying. I'd also be surprised if Goldwire doesn't stay for his 5th year. From all accounts he loves the school and would have a chance to play for an NT.

    Lets hope we get Keels and Baldwin soon.

    It seems to have gone quiet but I suppose the pandemic has played a huge part in disrupting everything.
    I won't speculate on whether or not Steward goes, but I'm not sure he has all the tools to be a good pro. You mention his size, but that is a big limitation for him at the next level. He's not a PG (yet), but that's the only position he can really play in the NBA at this point. He's a decent ballhandler, but not superlative, and he's not much of a passer. And despite a reputation as a shooter, he hasn't yet shot very well (32.4% from 3). So he seems to be an undersized volume scorer. Which is perfect at the college level, but more questionable at the pro level.

    Now, that certainly won't prohibit him from going pro. We saw Stanley go arguably a year too early, so it wouldn't be a shock at all if Steward goes. But that is just the reality of the landscape rather than a reflection of where he is as a player.

    As for the other guys, I definitely don't think Roach is ready. Like Steward, he's a one-position player at the next level, and he isn't nearly impactful enough yet to be on the NBA radar. He feels like a 3-4 year guy at this point. Again, not saying he won't make the decision to go early, but he's not getting drafted this year.

    Agreed that Goldwire returning seems likely. And a 5th year senior Goldwire along with Roach and maybe Steward and the incoming frontcourt guys seems like a great place to start. Especially if at least a few of Brakefield/Moore/Baker/Williams/Coleman return as well.

  13. #953
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    If you're going on recent track record, it's something like 40% chance he returns. He has an obvious flaw - size. That can be mitigated by proving one or two things. He needs to prove that he can score at an outrageously high level and/or that he can run the point. With recent players that have gone pro - Stanley, Gary Trent, Jr., Frank Jackson, etc. - they each had a chance to work on their game to an extent. But I don't think they were going to overcome their flaws in the minds of NBA scouts. Put it another way, was another year going to change things for them? Maybe, maybe not. Stanley would only get older; Trent wasn't going to be focal point of the offense; Jackson wasn't going to be an effective point guard. But Steward will have a chance to improve his draft stock in ways others have by returning. Kennard proved he is an elite scorer. Tre Jones proved that he can improve as a shooter while maintaining upside as a defender and creator. Matthew Hurt is proving that he can score at a high level and improve his body to the point of being serviceable on defense (I doubt he goes in the first round, but there's a role for him on an NBA team).

    This is, ultimately, his choice. I don't have a good read on his camp or his desire to play in college vs the NBA. If I was in his camp, though, I'd point out that being a top scorer on a team that will compete for being #1 in the country could earn him a lot of attention.
    Spoiler: His desire is to play in the NBA >>> college.
    Haters gonna hate.

  14. #954
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC

    Because I need something else to talk about...

    Letís say that only Johnson and Hurt leave, plus Goldwire and Tape graduate. As of right now that seems reasonable. If we donít sign anyone else, then next yearís roster looks something like

    STARTERS
    Roach
    Steward
    Moore
    Griffin
    Banchero

    BENCH
    Baker
    Brakefield
    Williams
    Coleman

    On paper that gives us more experience than this yearís roster. Hopefully the backcourt duo makes a leap and everybody improves some while gaining experience together. But Iím not sure if Griffin/Banchero is much of an improvement over Johnson/Hurt. Itís possible, but Johnson was ranked about the same as Griffin and Hurt is putting up ACC POY numbers.

    So where does that leave us? Another tough year, barring Hurt returning or us landing Keels and/or Baldwin?

  15. #955
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Letís say that only Johnson and Hurt leave, plus Goldwire and Tape graduate. As of right now that seems reasonable. If we donít sign anyone else, then next yearís roster looks something like

    STARTERS
    Roach
    Steward
    Moore
    Griffin
    Banchero

    BENCH
    Baker
    Brakefield
    Williams
    Coleman

    On paper that gives us more experience than this yearís roster. Hopefully the backcourt duo makes a leap and everybody improves some while gaining experience together. But Iím not sure if Griffin/Banchero is much of an improvement over Johnson/Hurt. Itís possible, but Johnson was ranked about the same as Griffin and Hurt is putting up ACC POY numbers.

    So where does that leave us? Another tough year, barring Hurt returning or us landing Keels and/or Baldwin?
    Well in your scenario the expectation would be that we would see major improvements from a more mature and seasoned Roach and Steward. Hopefully their bodies will be more developed as well. Plus another year of experience for Moore.

    Matt Hurt has a very good jumpshot, and one that is difficult to block. But I'm sorry. I don't see any way that he is an NBA player. Even with the added weight, he is not strong with the ball inside, and gets beaten to a lot of balls in there. More importantly even is the fact that he simply cannot guard in space. That is a key thing that the NBA wants in big guys now. Unless you are a real rim protector, you have to be able to move your feet and stay with guys on the drive. Hurt struggles mightily in that area at the college level. In the NBA? No way.

    He'll probably go anyway, because that's what guys usually do now, and his areas of weakness will not likely get any better with another year of college.

  16. #956
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Let’s say that only Johnson and Hurt leave, plus Goldwire and Tape graduate. As of right now that seems reasonable. If we don’t sign anyone else, then next year’s roster looks something like

    STARTERS
    Roach
    Steward
    Moore
    Griffin
    Banchero

    BENCH
    Baker
    Brakefield
    Williams
    Coleman

    On paper that gives us more experience than this year’s roster. Hopefully the backcourt duo makes a leap and everybody improves some while gaining experience together. But I’m not sure if Griffin/Banchero is much of an improvement over Johnson/Hurt. It’s possible, but Johnson was ranked about the same as Griffin and Hurt is putting up ACC POY numbers.

    So where does that leave us? Another tough year, barring Hurt returning or us landing Keels and/or Baldwin?
    The big hole in your list is the same hole as this year; lack of an effective playmaker. These is a chance Roach becomes an ACC level point guard, but that’s not a sure thing and don’t want Wendell in that role. Louisville won yesterday down the stretch only because they had a grad transfer running the show. Your roster above needs to include the best point guard K can find on the open market.

    Unfortunately, that’s what NCAA success is all about.

  17. #957
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Well in your scenario the expectation would be that we would see major improvements from a more mature and seasoned Roach and Steward. Hopefully their bodies will be more developed as well. Plus another year of experience for Moore.

    Matt Hurt has a very good jumpshot, and one that is difficult to block. But I'm sorry. I don't see any way that he is an NBA player. Even with the added weight, he is not strong with the ball inside, and gets beaten to a lot of balls in there. More importantly even is the fact that he simply cannot guard in space. That is a key thing that the NBA wants in big guys now. Unless you are a real rim protector, you have to be able to move your feet and stay with guys on the drive. Hurt struggles mightily in that area at the college level. In the NBA? No way.

    He'll probably go anyway, because that's what guys usually do now, and his areas of weakness will not likely get any better with another year of college.
    Yep, a second-year Steward would likely be a stud. And I think Roach will take a big step forward as well. I also would be surprised to see Goldwire return for a 5th year and would provide solid experience on the bench.

    And our freshmen bigs should all be a little better next year too.

    Next yearís team should be better than this yearís team.

  18. #958
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    On paper that gives us more experience than this year’s roster. Hopefully the backcourt duo makes a leap and everybody improves some while gaining experience together. But I’m not sure if Griffin/Banchero is much of an improvement over Johnson/Hurt. It’s possible, but Johnson was ranked about the same as Griffin and Hurt is putting up ACC POY numbers.
    It may not seem like it, but Griffin's composite ranking (per 247) of #7 is meaningfully, significantly different from Johnson's composite ranking of #13. Griffin should be a better player (and imo, a much better player). Also, I'm as big a fan of Hurt as anyone, but Banchero is just on another level as far as talent is concerned. The hype for next year's team being possibly Coach K's last, best chance at a title is fair.

    And we probably aren't done yet in this class.

  19. #959
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I won't speculate on whether or not Steward goes, but I'm not sure he has all the tools to be a good pro. You mention his size, but that is a big limitation for him at the next level. He's not a PG (yet), but that's the only position he can really play in the NBA at this point. He's a decent ballhandler, but not superlative, and he's not much of a passer. And despite a reputation as a shooter, he hasn't yet shot very well (32.4% from 3). So he seems to be an undersized volume scorer. Which is perfect at the college level, but more questionable at the pro level.

    Now, that certainly won't prohibit him from going pro. We saw Stanley go arguably a year too early, so it wouldn't be a shock at all if Steward goes. But that is just the reality of the landscape rather than a reflection of where he is as a player.

    As for the other guys, I definitely don't think Roach is ready. Like Steward, he's a one-position player at the next level, and he isn't nearly impactful enough yet to be on the NBA radar. He feels like a 3-4 year guy at this point. Again, not saying he won't make the decision to go early, but he's not getting drafted this year.

    Agreed that Goldwire returning seems likely. And a 5th year senior Goldwire along with Roach and maybe Steward and the incoming frontcourt guys seems like a great place to start. Especially if at least a few of Brakefield/Moore/Baker/Williams/Coleman return as well.
    At his size, Steward needs to be an elite shooter to have an NBA career. He can go pro, but he is likely going to have to work his way through the G league. It all depends if he wants to be a student while he develops his game. Hurt could be an elite shooter at the next level- but I think that remains to be seen. Johnson is raw and has potential, but he is a project. He will get drafted but it will be a while before he contributes.

  20. #960
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yep, a second-year Steward would likely be a stud. And I think Roach will take a big step forward as well. I also would be surprised to see Goldwire return for a 5th year and would provide solid experience on the bench.

    And our freshmen bigs should all be a little better next year too.

    Next yearís team should be better than this yearís team.
    Well of course Roach should take a big step forward. He has nowhere to go but up based on his play so far.

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