2021 Men's Basketball Recruiting Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

I continue to be curious as to why people think Steward is "likely" to be OAD.

With Roach and Goldwire on board, I can't see him playing much point.

I can't see him playing ahead of Moore at the 2. Moore could move to the 3, of course, but where would that leave Johnson? Coming off the bench? Not likely. At the four? Perhaps. But where would that leave Hurt? Coming off the bench? Not likely. At the 5? Again, is that the best use of his talents?

The most rational allocation of resources seems to me to start Roach/Goldwire, Moore, Johnson, Hurt and Williams/Tape.

And that's not even getting into how Duke gets Baker and Brakefield on the court at the 3/4. There are only so many minutes at the wing.

Unless he is a lot, lot better than his prep rankings, I don't see how Steward gets more than 16-20 mpg off the bench. He could be so good in those minutes that an NBA team will take a chance on a 170-pound shooting guard. But it seems like a longshot to me.

What am I missing? Other than the fact that absolutely nothing about this upcoming college season will even be in the same zip code as normal, of course.

I'll take a stab at this. Ross Homan of the Stepien wrote this NBA draft profile of Steward in January:

DJ Steward is one of my favorite players in the class to watch, due to his shooting, consistent effort, good level of basketball IQ, and improving lead guard skills over the last year or so. Another noticeable thing with him is that he’s grown around 1.5-2 inches over the last 10 months, while gaining around 10-15 pounds. Any continued growth would be huge for his ability to guard bigger guards and play next to point guards, leveraging his off-ball shooting and IQ. Below you can enjoy 2+ minutes of his shooting. He has a unique ability to shoulder square after rising, to shoot off different balances and foot placements, and to always time his rhythm before his catch and rise.

If Steward is closer to 6'3" than he is 6'1", I think that he could be an intriguing prospect for teams as a guard. At that height, he might be able to guard the 1 or the 2. And a ton of teams are playing smaller lineups, like the Rockets. If you have a big man with passing skills, like Bam Adebayo, Nicola Jokic, LeBron James, etc., then you don't need your lead guard to be as pass-first as a traditional player at DJ's size. CJ McCollum, Seth Curry, Fred VanVleet, Quinn Cook, and others are proving you can contribute at that size on or off the ball if you can shoot and aren't a liability on defense. So that shooting skills is going to jump out to teams. If he can also demonstrate above-average ball-handling and defensive skills to go with it? That would be an easy transition to the NBA on a ton of teams.

That was the NBA case for DJ. On Duke's roster, Steward is the only guard with knock-down shooting skills and the size and quickness to defend 1-2. Goldwire and Roach are going to play on the ball most often. Moore and Baker are more wings/small forwards than they are guards. I am not sure how the roster will work out, but I can definitely see a situation in which Coach K feels comfortable going with a smaller backcourt in certain matchups. Against VA Tech last year, for example, K pulled Vernon Carey, Jr. in the first matchup over matchup issues on the defensive end. More teams are doing pace and space in college. There will be certain games where Steward is going to matchup better than having Williams or Tape out there when a team is going to switch a guard or wing onto those bigs and exploit the matchup, That was something that happened in the SFA game if I recall correctly. And Aamir Sims abused Duke's frontcourt at Clemson. In those kinds of games, having a couple of big strong wings like Moore and Johnson and/or Henry Coleman with Roach, Steward, and Goldwire, is going to be a heck of a lineup for teams to cope with. There are a lot of teams in college that play 3 guards. DJ Steward might be a killer in those matchups with his shooting and ability to just get whereever he wants on the court.

[DavidBenAkiva]

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals...keels-michigan

Some new info from Corey Evans - on Trevor Keels, he says "Duke appears to be the leader"

That's an interesting development. Keels appears to have a world of talent and is both big and strong for a guard and has excellent shooting skills. No doubt, Jeremy Roach is an asset in this recruitment.

As for roster fit, I think Keels has some of the same situations as his other suitors, Villanova and Virginia.

At Nova, there are already two talented guards in Justin Moore and Bryan Antoine that will be sophomores next year. Antoine had a rough freshman year dealing with some major injuries. Moore has a lot of buzz as a guy that could blow up this year, much like Saddiq Bey the year before. But if either or both are still on the roster in 2021, that's a lot of talented 2's/3's to share the roster. I suppose one could come off the bench, but none are lead guards or could play the 4.

At Virginia, it's a somewhat similar situation with incumbent talented guards. Jabri Abdur-Rahim is a 4-star freshman this upcoming season. Cody Stattman will get some PT. Tony Bennett plays a short rotation most years. Even though Tomas Woldetensae is going to graduate after this upcoming season, there's not open roster spot in front of Keels. And you know Kihei Clarke is going to get a ton of minutes at the 1.

Duke offers a similar situation as both Nova and UVA. There's no guarantee of starting unless someone, or more than one person, goes pro. If it's DJ Steward, then Keels has an obvious path to starting alongside Jeremy Roach in the backcourt. Does he want to recreate his high school days in Durham? It seems the two have a good relationship already and they visited Durham together before COVID-19. The other recruit Duke has for the Class of 2021 so far is AJ Griffin. Griffin is the Justise Winslow-esque athletic wing that looks like he could play the 3 or the 4. So no one, besides perhaps a junior Wendell Moore (who has draft buzz as a late 1st/early 2nd rounder in 2021) or DJ Steward, really compete for the same position. The interest, to me, seems to say that the coaching staff expects to have an opening and that Keels is the guy.

If Duke can somehow reel in Keels, Griffin, and Patrick Baldwin, Jr., that would be a supremely talented trio and possibly the best collection of shooters Duke has ever brought in a single class.

[jimsumner]

I'll take a stab at this. Ross Homan of the Stepien wrote this NBA draft profile of Steward in January:



If Steward is closer to 6'3" than he is 6'1", I think that he could be an intriguing prospect for teams as a guard. At that height, he might be able to guard the 1 or the 2. And a ton of teams are playing smaller lineups, like the Rockets. If you have a big man with passing skills, like Bam Adebayo, Nicola Jokic, LeBron James, etc., then you don't need your lead guard to be as pass-first as a traditional player at DJ's size. CJ McCollum, Seth Curry, Fred VanVleet, Quinn Cook, and others are proving you can contribute at that size on or off the ball if you can shoot and aren't a liability on defense. So that shooting skills is going to jump out to teams. If he can also demonstrate above-average ball-handling and defensive skills to go with it? That would be an easy transition to the NBA on a ton of teams.

That was the NBA case for DJ. On Duke's roster, Steward is the only guard with knock-down shooting skills and the size and quickness to defend 1-2. Goldwire and Roach are going to play on the ball most often. Moore and Baker are more wings/small forwards than they are guards. I am not sure how the roster will work out, but I can definitely see a situation in which Coach K feels comfortable going with a smaller backcourt in certain matchups. Against VA Tech last year, for example, K pulled Vernon Carey, Jr. in the first matchup over matchup issues on the defensive end. More teams are doing pace and space in college. There will be certain games where Steward is going to matchup better than having Williams or Tape out there when a team is going to switch a guard or wing onto those bigs and exploit the matchup, That was something that happened in the SFA game if I recall correctly. And Aamir Sims abused Duke's frontcourt at Clemson. In those kinds of games, having a couple of big strong wings like Moore and Johnson and/or Henry Coleman with Roach, Steward, and Goldwire, is going to be a heck of a lineup for teams to cope with. There are a lot of teams in college that play 3 guards. DJ Steward might be a killer in those matchups with his shooting and ability to just get whereever he wants on the court.

Some games? Sure. You referenced three games and there probably are a few more. And maybe this stems from a different perception of Wendell Moore's career arc. I expect Moore to have a breakout 2021 season [usual qualifiers apply]. An All-ACC-level player. There will be exceptions but in the aggregate I see Moore, Johnson and Hurt all on the court for at least 30 mpg, with Roach and Goldwire sharing the bulk of the PG minutes and Williams and Tape sharing the bulk of the center minutes. That leaves four promising talents scrambling for what's left in a program that traditionally doesn't play 11 players. Duke absolutely needs Steward's outside shooting so he should be in the mix for a lot of those bench minutes. But I'll be stunned if most of his minutes aren't bench minutes. Will that be enough to attract the attention of NBA scouts? Perhaps. But I still think a sophomore Steward makes more sense than a OAD Steward.

I hope we get a chance to find out.

[CDu]

Some games? Sure. You referenced three games and there probably are a few more. And maybe this stems from a different perception of Wendell Moore's career arc. I expect Moore to have a breakout 2021 season [usual qualifiers apply]. An All-ACC-level player. There will be exceptions but in the aggregate I see Moore, Johnson and Hurt all on the court for at least 30 mpg, with Roach and Goldwire sharing the bulk of the PG minutes and Williams and Tape sharing the bulk of the center minutes. That leaves four promising talents scrambling for what's left in a program that traditionally doesn't play 11 players. Duke absolutely needs Steward's outside shooting so he should be in the mix for a lot of those bench minutes. But I'll be stunned if most of his minutes aren't bench minutes. Will that be enough to attract the attention of NBA scouts? Perhaps. But I still think a sophomore Steward makes more sense than a OAD Steward.

I hope we get a chance to find out.

I am kind of in a "split decision" mindset on this one. On the one hand, I'd be very surprised if Steward is one-and-done. He's small for an NBA shooting guard, and while there are small combo guards in the NBA they usually aren't drafted high enough for him going one-and-done to make sense. So I do think he'll be around for at least another year.

That said, I do think Steward is the most obvious fit for a college SG as we have on the roster this year. Moore could very well be a stud this year, but his toolkit is that of a SF (with the ability to even play up at PF in a smallball lineup) in college. Similarly, Johnson is a quintessential college PF. Now, I agree that Moore, Johnson, and Hurt might be the three best players on the roster. And if so, that creates some challenging lineup questions. Does one of those 3 come off the bench? Do they play "big", pushing Johnson and Moore down a position from their natural college position? Or do they bump Hurt up a spot to play the 5? Each option has pros and cons. Going big means we'll almost certainly have a poor shooting starting lineup. Roach, Moore, and Johnson aren't shooters, and neither are Williams/Tape if one of them starts at the 5. And a Johnson/Hurt/Big frontcourt would run the risk of getting toasted out on the perimeter by teams with good quickness and perimeter attacking ability. Conversely, it should be a strong rebounding team and potentially a good shotblocking team. Putting Hurt at the 5 and Steward at the SG spot would allow our presumed best 5 to be on the floor together, with all but one of them playing their natural position. We'd have a phenomenal quartet of ballhandlers able to create offense from multiple spots on the floor. And we'd have more shooting with Hurt AND Steward on the floor, with the ability to spread the floor completely without congestion. And we'd be less prone to getting roasted on the perimeter defensively with Steward in place of a big. Conversely, we'd be really susceptible on the glass as none of those 5 are noted for their rebounding, and we'd have little shotblocking presence. Bringing one of Hurt and Johnson off the bench would give us a middle ground of everything, but would mean we have less time with our best 3 on the court together.

Ultimately, I wonder if we'll see things vary from game to game/minute to minute given the matchups. Maybe we have a "starting 6" that shifts in who gets the start from game to game, and minutes fluctuate a bit game to game given the opponent. I suspect that Steward will play a lot given that he is our only true SG and best perimeter shooter of our guards, but I could see him coming off the bench some and starting some. I could also see Williams and Tape getting some starts but not all, as we try to mix in Steward as a starter from time to time. If I had to pick one option as the "this is the thing we'll do" though, I'd suspect that going smaller and more skilled with the ball as the more likely outcome rather than bigger and less skilled with the ball. And that would favor more time for Steward than Williams/Tape.

[jimsumner]

I am kind of in a "split decision" mindset on this one. On the one hand, I'd be very surprised if Steward is one-and-done. He's small for an NBA shooting guard, and while there are small combo guards in the NBA they usually aren't drafted high enough for him going one-and-done to make sense. So I do think he'll be around for at least another year.

That said, I do think Steward is the most obvious fit for a college SG as we have on the roster this year. Moore could very well be a stud this year, but his toolkit is that of a SF (with the ability to even play up at PF in a smallball lineup) in college. Similarly, Johnson is a quintessential college PF. Now, I agree that Moore, Johnson, and Hurt might be the three best players on the roster. And if so, that creates some challenging lineup questions. Does one of those 3 come off the bench? Do they play "big", pushing Johnson and Moore down a position from their natural college position? Or do they bump Hurt up a spot to play the 5? Each option has pros and cons. Going big means we'll almost certainly have a poor shooting starting lineup. Roach, Moore, and Johnson aren't shooters, and neither are Williams/Tape if one of them starts at the 5. And a Johnson/Hurt/Big frontcourt would run the risk of getting toasted out on the perimeter by teams with good quickness and perimeter attacking ability. Conversely, it should be a strong rebounding team and potentially a good shotblocking team. Putting Hurt at the 5 and Steward at the SG spot would allow our presumed best 5 to be on the floor together, with all but one of them playing their natural position. We'd have a phenomenal quartet of ballhandlers able to create offense from multiple spots on the floor. And we'd have more shooting with Hurt AND Steward on the floor, with the ability to spread the floor completely without congestion. And we'd be less prone to getting roasted on the perimeter defensively with Steward in place of a big. Conversely, we'd be really susceptible on the glass as none of those 5 are noted for their rebounding, and we'd have little shotblocking presence. Bringing one of Hurt and Johnson off the bench would give us a middle ground of everything, but would mean we have less time with our best 3 on the court together.

Ultimately, I wonder if we'll see things vary from game to game/minute to minute given the matchups. Maybe we have a "starting 6" that shifts in who gets the start from game to game, and minutes fluctuate a bit game to game given the opponent. I suspect that Steward will play a lot given that he is our only true SG and best perimeter shooter of our guards, but I could see him coming off the bench some and starting some. I could also see Williams and Tape getting some starts but not all, as we try to mix in Steward as a starter from time to time. If I had to pick one option as the "this is the thing we'll do" though, I'd suspect that going smaller and more skilled with the ball as the more likely outcome rather than bigger and less skilled with the ball. And that would favor more time for Steward than Williams/Tape.

Good analysis and I largely agree. But I have to think that K would not have gone after Tape if he anticipated playing Hurt at the 5 with any regularity. Maybe insurance. But I also don't believe Tape would decide to spend his grad-student year at Duke without a reasonable expectation that he would see the floor on a consistent basis.

[Nugget]

On Duke's roster, Steward is the only guard with knock-down shooting skills and the size and quickness to defend 1-2. Goldwire and Roach are going to play on the ball most often. Moore and Baker are more wings/small forwards than they are guards. I am not sure how the roster will work out, but I can definitely see a situation in which Coach K feels comfortable going with a smaller backcourt in certain matchups. Against VA Tech last year, for example, K pulled Vernon Carey, Jr. in the first matchup over matchup issues on the defensive end. More teams are doing pace and space in college. There will be certain games where Steward is going to matchup better than having Williams or Tape out there when a team is going to switch a guard or wing onto those bigs and exploit the matchup, That was something that happened in the SFA game if I recall correctly. And Aamir Sims abused Duke's frontcourt at Clemson. In those kinds of games, having a couple of big strong wings like Moore and Johnson and/or Henry Coleman with Roach, Steward, and Goldwire, is going to be a heck of a lineup for teams to cope with. There are a lot of teams in college that play 3 guards. DJ Steward might be a killer in those matchups with his shooting and ability to just get whereever he wants on the court.

This seems right to me. Given Coach K's general past practice to lean towards playing small, I wouldn't be surprised to see crunch-time lineups of Roach, Goldwire, Steward, and 2/3 of Moore, Johnson or Hurt, depending on opponent/situation.

[jimsumner]

This seems right to me. Given Coach K's general past practice to lean towards playing small, I wouldn't be surprised to see crunch-time lineups of Roach, Goldwire, Steward, and 2/3 of Moore, Johnson or Hurt, depending on opponent/situation.

Assuming the absence of foul trouble I'd be stunned if one of Moore, Johnson or Hurt is on the bench during crunch time.

As an aside, good problem to have.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Of the 7 potential starters Jim mentioned, only one is a "better than mediocre" 3pt shooter: Hurt. Roach isn't known to be a shooter, Moore was a disaster from the 3 his freshman year, Goldwire had a good junior year but awful first two years (and does anyone really trust him to be a knockdown shooter?), Jalen does everything well except outside shooting (clearly his biggest weakness), and the 5s aren't shooters in the slightest.

Outside of Hurt (and the currently one-dimensional Baker), Steward is our best 3pt shooter. On this roster, that absolutely counts for something. And that's why I think Steward will get minutes. Will those minutes warrant an OAD? Probably shouldn't, but this is Duke. Players have left for a lot less.

As for starting line-ups and minutes, given Jalen's really unique skillset, can he play "point" on offense and the 3/4 on defense? Does Roach or Goldwire really need to start? Could a line-up of Steward, Moore, Hurt, Jalen, and [insert big man here] be good enough? It's a balance of shooting, creativity, defense, and size (actually, a lot of size).

[jimsumner]

As for starting line-ups and minutes, given Jalen's really unique skillset, can he play "point" on offense and the 3/4 on defense? Does Roach or Goldwire really need to start? Could a line-up of Steward, Moore, Hurt, Jalen, and [insert big man here] be good enough? It's a balance of shooting, creativity, defense, and size (actually, a lot of size).

Interesting idea. Not one that can be dismissed out of hand. And all that size? Perfect for Duke's zone.

Duke has had some forwards who could fill in at point in a pinch [great name for a rock group; point in a pinch.] King, Carrawell, Dunleavy, guys like that. But Grant Hill is the only player in Johnson's size range--that I can recall at least--who has actually played point guard for any appreciable length of time and that was in 1992 when Hurley was out with a broken foot. Hill was a point forward in 1994 but even then Collins and Capel were in the lineup alongside him.

Forty years of data suggests that K is going to have someone like Roach or Goldwire in the starting lineup.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Interesting idea. Not one that can be dismissed out of hand. And all that size? Perfect for Duke's zone.

Duke has had some forwards who could fill in at point in a pinch [great name for a rock group; point in a pinch.] King, Carrawell, Dunleavy, guys like that. But Grant Hill is the only player in Johnson's size range--that I can recall at least--who has actually played point guard for any appreciable length of time and that was in 1992 when Hurley was out with a broken foot. Hill was a point forward in 1994 but even then Collins and Capel were in the lineup alongside him.

Forty years of data suggests that K is going to have someone like Roach or Goldwire in the starting lineup.

I don't think you're wrong, but Roach and Goldwire are shooting liabilities. That "traditional" line up is gonna make Duke really easy to defend. I understand JG shot 37% last year, which is really good for Duke over the last 3 seasons. But I don't think anyone would label JG as a "reliable 3pt shooter".

[CDu]

Good analysis and I largely agree. But I have to think that K would not have gone after Tape if he anticipated playing Hurt at the 5 with any regularity. Maybe insurance. But I also don't believe Tape would decide to spend his grad-student year at Duke without a reasonable expectation that he would see the floor on a consistent basis.

Yeah, the Tape commitment creates another interesting dynamic in this. To be clear, from Coach K's perspective it almost surely makes sense to bring in a fifth-year guy, even if the anticipation is for him to be "starter's insurance" or a backup. Likely no harm in having more experience on the roster. But for Tape, the decision on playing time would seem more pertinent. Presumably he had options from other bigger-name schools that could offer a starting spot. So I'm sure he does expect to play a lot. I doubt he got any assurances of that from Duke, but maybe some strong indicators of the possibility.

That said, Tape could still easily get 20 mpg in the scenario being discussed (that Steward starts a fair amount). In your scenario of Moore/Johnson/Hurt all getting 30-ish mpg, and Roach and Goldwire combining for 40, that still would leave 70 mpg on the table. Let's say 35 of those go to Tape/Williams, that leaves 35 for Steward and someone else (Baker?). It wouldn't surprise me to see Steward get 20-25 (along with a decent number of starts) and Baker get 10, and the rest to go to the other two freshmen. That would have the look and feel of a more typical Duke rotation: 6-7 guys logging the lion's share of minutes with a couple of other guys hovering around 10 mpg.

[jaywilliams22]

Here are some videos of Steward playing over the past few months. I know not to get too excited over pick up games, but I do enjoy watching his combination of ball handling and shooting.

https://twitter.com/Ballislife/statu...974723589?s=20

https://twitter.com/swipasnipa/statu...266098176?s=20

[Phredd3]

Here are some videos of Steward playing over the past few months. I know not to get too excited over pick up games, but I do enjoy watching his combination of ball handling and shooting.

https://twitter.com/Ballislife/statu...974723589?s=20

https://twitter.com/swipasnipa/statu...266098176?s=20

I wonder what the combined shooting percentage is in all basketball clips posted to Twitter? Occasionally you'll get a spectacular block posted, so maybe 98.7%? Having said that, I hope he's as good as those clips make him look.

[SilkyJ]

Good analysis and I largely agree. But I have to think that K would not have gone after Tape if he anticipated playing Hurt at the 5 with any regularity. Maybe insurance. But I also don't believe Tape would decide to spend his grad-student year at Duke without a reasonable expectation that he would see the floor on a consistent basis.

Assuming the absence of foul trouble I'd be stunned if one of Moore, Johnson or Hurt is on the bench during crunch time.

As an aside, good problem to have.

I’m with Jim here. I won’t claim to have any idea what K is thinking, but Hurt at the 5 just doesn’t make sense. He’s not equipped for it. His strength+athleticism isn’t there and its reflected in particular in his rebounding numbers, which are below average for a Power Forward at Duke (and can’t sniff average for a Center).

Here are the Total Rebounding % numbers for PFs at Duke over last several years:

2020: Hurt - 10%
2019: Zion- 15.5%
2018: Badgley - 18% (not fair, he was more of a C, but he did play PF alongside Carter)
2018b: Javin - 16.9%
2017: Tatum - 12.6%
2016: Ingram - 10.8%
2015a: Amile - 16.0%
2015b: Winslow - 13.1%
2014a: Jabari - 17%
2014b: Amile - 18%
2013: Ryan Kelly - 11.2%

There are varying skill sets in here, but the closest comps for Hurt based on size and skill set are probably Kelly, Ingram, and Tatum, with Kelly being the most direct comp in my opinion. If he can get stronger I can see him getting to the 11-12% range, which is where Kelly was a junior and senior as he got stronger. He’s a little more athletic than Kelly so I guess 12-13% range is a stretch goal.

But None of the guys in that TRB% range were equipped to play meaningful minutes at the 5. Maybe a few in crunch time for Tatum and Ingram when we are favoring having 5 good shooters and ball handlers on the floor but thats about it.

As a result, have to agree strongly with Jim that Hurt won’t see more than 3-5mpg at the 5...but could see him and Jalen splitting duties there for a couple minutes in crunch time.

As an aside, here are Tape’s TRB% last 3 years at Columbia:

2017: 19.8%
2018: 16.5%
2019: 15.2%
Career: 16.2%

[Kedsy]

I’m with Jim here. I won’t claim to have any idea what K is thinking, but Hurt at the 5 just doesn’t make sense. He’s not equipped for it. His strength+athleticism isn’t there and its reflected in particular in his rebounding numbers, which are below average for a Power Forward at Duke (and can’t sniff average for a Center).

Here are the Total Rebounding % numbers for PFs at Duke over last several years:

2020: Hurt - 10%
2019: Zion- 15.5%
2018: Badgley - 18% (not fair, he was more of a C, but he did play PF alongside Carter)
2018b: Javin - 16.9%
2017: Tatum - 12.6%
2016: Ingram - 10.8%
2015a: Amile - 16.0%
2015b: Winslow - 13.1%
2014a: Jabari - 17%
2014b: Amile - 18%
2013: Ryan Kelly - 11.2%

There are varying skill sets in here, but the closest comps for Hurt based on size and skill set are probably Kelly, Ingram, and Tatum, with Kelly being the most direct comp in my opinion. If he can get stronger I can see him getting to the 11-12% range, which is where Kelly was a junior and senior as he got stronger. He’s a little more athletic than Kelly so I guess 12-13% range is a stretch goal.

But None of the guys in that TRB% range were equipped to play meaningful minutes at the 5. Maybe a few in crunch time for Tatum and Ingram when we are favoring having 5 good shooters and ball handlers on the floor but thats about it.

As a result, have to agree strongly with Jim that Hurt won’t see more than 3-5mpg at the 5...but could see him and Jalen splitting duties there for a couple minutes in crunch time.

As an aside, here are Tape’s TRB% last 3 years at Columbia:

2017: 19.8%
2018: 16.5%
2019: 15.2%
Career: 16.2%

Looking at TRB% is a little misleading, because (a) offensive and defensive rebounding are very different skills; and (b) if your general position in the offense is on the perimeter, it's a lot harder to get offensive rebounds. Plus, while offensive rebounding is good for the offense, it's not essential (if, for instance you shoot a lot of threes like Ingram, Winslow, Tatum, and Kelly, it can more than make up for a lack of offensive rebounding), while defensive rebounding is critical for a center (and very important for a power forward as well).

With that in mind, let's look at your chart for defensive rebounding only:

2020: Hurt - 11.6%
2019: Zion- 18.0%
2018: Bagley - 21.5%
2018b: Javin - 18.6%
2017: Tatum - 19.7%
2016: Ingram - 15.5%
2015a: Amile - 18.0%
2015b: Winslow - 19.8%
2014a: Jabari - 23.1%
2014b: Amile - 21.5%
2013: Ryan Kelly - 15.4%

Patrick Tape: 28.1%, 18.5%, 20.7% (career: 21.0%)

This chart puts Matthew Hurt in an even worse light. His defensive rebounding prowess is nowhere near Tatum, and his two closest comps (Ingram and Kelly) are still way better than he is (where in your chart their TRB numbers seem similar). In fact, Matthew's 11.6% DRB% is much more characteristic of a guard (for comparison, last season Tre Jones's DRB% was 10.8%; Cassius Stanley's was 11.7%; Wendell Moore's was 11.7%; and Alex O'Connell's was 13.6%). If Hurt wants to play center, he'll have to up his defensive rebounding significantly.

That said, I still think the lineup of Rauch/Steward/Moore/Hurt/Johnson will play a lot, possibly being our most common lineup (assuming there is a college basketball season at all), except with Johnson (rather than Hurt) being the primary defensive rebounder (and probably defending the opposing center). When we play teams that are too big inside for Jalen and Matthew to handle, then we'll see Patrick Tape and Mark Williams playing more minutes in a more traditional lineup.

[tommy]

Noles land 5 star combo guard Jalen Warley. They are putting together a very strong class here. Hamilton is just an impressive coach in so many ways, and has made this program into a consistent presence on the national scene even before he started landing these types of recruits. Now it's a destination that lots of guys are considering, when in the past, kids like Andrew Wiggins just couldn't pull the lever for FSU. Now guys are.

https://www.si.com/college/recruitin...lton-seminoles

[jaywilliams22]

Noles land 5 star combo guard Jalen Warley. They are putting together a very strong class here. Hamilton is just an impressive coach in so many ways, and has made this program into a consistent presence on the national scene even before he started landing these types of recruits. Now it's a destination that lots of guys are considering, when in the past, kids like Andrew Wiggins just couldn't pull the lever for FSU. Now guys are.

https://www.si.com/college/recruitin...lton-seminoles

Warley is really impressive and only getting better. He plays at Westtown School, where our own Cam Reddish went.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Noles land 5 star combo guard Jalen Warley. They are putting together a very strong class here. Hamilton is just an impressive coach in so many ways, and has made this program into a consistent presence on the national scene even before he started landing these types of recruits. Now it's a destination that lots of guys are considering, when in the past, kids like Andrew Wiggins just couldn't pull the lever for FSU. Now guys are.

https://www.si.com/college/recruitin...lton-seminoles

FSU and Leonard Hamilton have been reeling in 5-star recruits for a while now, including Hamilton's first recruiting class and Von Wafer. There have been a few more top recruits to commit to FSU lately, but it's not like they haven't been successful in the recruiting world before. I think the change has been that the program has finally translated good recruiting into success in the conference and NCAA tournaments. Let's remember that FSU came in 1st in the regular season of the ACC for the first time ever this past season. That came after a trip to the Elite 8 in 2018 and then the Sweet 16 in 2019. That's the best they have done in a 3-year stretch. Maybe they are now moving into the territory of bringing in 1-2 5-star recruits every year, which would be new territory for the program.

Scottie Barnes is the highest-rated recruit that FSU has ever had, so let's pump the breaks on Andrew Wiggins comparisons. In addition to Barnes, here's the 5-stars (247 Composite) they have brought to Tallahassee during Leonard Hamilton's tenure:

Scottie Barnes (Class of 2020): #7/#1 PF
Jonathan Isaac (2016): #8/#2 SF
Michael Snaer (2009): #14/#5 SG
Dwayne Bacon (2015): *17/#4 SG
Chris Singleton (2009): #17/#7 PF
Von Wafer (2003): (Not available)
Jalen Warley (2021): #22/#2 CG
Patrick Williams (2019): #26/#7 SF
Solomon Alabi (2007): #24/#4 C

This program looks a lot to me like Baylor in terms of recruiting and performance on the court. They've rocked the boat but have yet to really break through. I like Hamilton and FSU's program for a lot of reasons. Realistically, they are just knocking on the doorstep. Jalen Warley could be a good college player and may be a future pro. But I think it is hyperbole to suggest that FSU has established itself in any way, either on the recruiting trail or in the college game. They are going to have to win in March to do that.

[SilkyJ]

Looking at TRB% is a little misleading, because (a) offensive and defensive rebounding are very different skills; and (b) if your general position in the offense is on the perimeter, it's a lot harder to get offensive rebounds. Plus, while offensive rebounding is good for the offense, it's not essential (if, for instance you shoot a lot of threes like Ingram, Winslow, Tatum, and Kelly, it can more than make up for a lack of offensive rebounding), while defensive rebounding is critical for a center (and very important for a power forward as well).

With that in mind, let's look at your chart for defensive rebounding only:

2020: Hurt - 11.6%
2019: Zion- 18.0%
2018: Bagley - 21.5%
2018b: Javin - 18.6%
2017: Tatum - 19.7%
2016: Ingram - 15.5%
2015a: Amile - 18.0%
2015b: Winslow - 19.8%
2014a: Jabari - 23.1%
2014b: Amile - 21.5%
2013: Ryan Kelly - 15.4%

Patrick Tape: 28.1%, 18.5%, 20.7% (career: 21.0%)

This chart puts Matthew Hurt in an even worse light. His defensive rebounding prowess is nowhere near Tatum, and his two closest comps (Ingram and Kelly) are still way better than he is (where in your chart their TRB numbers seem similar). In fact, Matthew's 11.6% DRB% is much more characteristic of a guard (for comparison, last season Tre Jones's DRB% was 10.8%; Cassius Stanley's was 11.7%; Wendell Moore's was 11.7%; and Alex O'Connell's was 13.6%). If Hurt wants to play center, he'll have to up his defensive rebounding significantly.

That said, I still think the lineup of Rauch/Steward/Moore/Hurt/Johnson will play a lot, possibly being our most common lineup (assuming there is a college basketball season at all), except with Johnson (rather than Hurt) being the primary defensive rebounder (and probably defending the opposing center). When we play teams that are too big inside for Jalen and Matthew to handle, then we'll see Patrick Tape and Mark Williams playing more minutes in a more traditional lineup.

Good tweaking. Also, if Kelly is closest comp, some might point out its not totally fair to compare Ryan Kelly as a senior to Hurt as a Freshman, so here are Kelly's career DRB%

Fr: 15.6%
So: 13.4%
Jr: 16.6%
Sr: 15.4%

As you point out, he's not really even in the same zip code as these guys and rebounds more like a guard. If the question is "can he play the 5" the answer is a clear No. He needs to dramatically improve here just to be an effective forward. (BTW this goes to his draft stock as well...he can't guard 3s and he can't play inside with 4s. He'll be in no-man's land if he doesn't get stronger, unless the NBA is moving to a place where they just don't care about Defense and its all 3 point shooting)

I agree with your last paragraph as well: Jalen may end up guarding smaller 5s in our 'small ball' lineup and against larger post players Tape and/or Williams will see action. (Tho I'm very skeptical a wiry, unpolished Williams who seems like a bit of a project will see much run...)

[Kedsy]

(Tho I'm very skeptical a wiry, unpolished Williams who seems like a bit of a project will see much run...)

Yeah, we'll have to see about Mark Williams (or I hope we will and that there actually is a season this year). I have high hopes for him as an athletic eraser on defense, who will by the end of the season overtake Patrick Tape as Duke's most-used true center. But my hopes are mostly based on reports of his improvement over his senior year and his shared gene pool with Elizabeth Williams, so it's anybody's guess whether that could really happen.