One and Done going away, what will Duke (and KY) do?

[sagegrouse]

Yes, Keds, you're right. But that may be insufficient data.



Correct. And 2 of those 10 (Senzel and Puk) have suffered major injuries, or else they may have been up already (Senzel almost assuredly).



My assumption is that it was a down draft.

As a point of comparison, the 2015 MLB Draft occured on 6/10/15 and featured the following players in the first round out of college (parenthesis showing MLB debut):

Dansby Swanson (8/17/16)
Alex Bregman (7/25/16)
Tyler Jay (n/a - injured)
Andrew Benintendi (8/2/16)
Carson Fulmer (7/17/16)
Ian Happ (5/13/17)
James Kaprielian (n/a)
Kevin Newman (n/a)
Richie Martin (n/a)
Walker Buehler (9/7/17)
DJ Stewart (n/a)
Taylor Ward (n/a)

So 4 of those top-end college picks were in the Majors by mid-year of their first pro season, which was essentially what I was trying to say. Two more had to wait 1.5 seasons. Clearly there's variance to when people get called up, but typically the big-name college guys are up pretty quickly and could probably be up immediately (meaning Day 1 of the next season) if it weren't for the extremely robust minor league system that MLB has in place.

- Chillin

Mid-year of their first pro season? Don't players go immediately to a rookie league? No one made it to the majors within a year of their draft date.

Best college players -- four in first (or second) season as a pro. Two in the second (or third season) (2017) and five not yet in the majors three years after draft.

Really different outcome from the top twelve picks in the NBA and NFL drafts in any recent year, and the NBAers are mostly 19-20 YOs. How could there be so much more to learn in baseball?

[sagegrouse]

Yes, Keds, you're right. But that may be insufficient data.



Correct. And 2 of those 10 (Senzel and Puk) have suffered major injuries, or else they may have been up already (Senzel almost assuredly).



My assumption is that it was a down draft.

As a point of comparison, the 2015 MLB Draft occured on 6/10/15 and featured the following players in the first round out of college (parenthesis showing MLB debut):

Dansby Swanson (8/17/16)
Alex Bregman (7/25/16)
Tyler Jay (n/a - injured)
Andrew Benintendi (8/2/16)
Carson Fulmer (7/17/16)
Ian Happ (5/13/17)
James Kaprielian (n/a)
Kevin Newman (n/a)
Richie Martin (n/a)
Walker Buehler (9/7/17)
DJ Stewart (n/a)
Taylor Ward (n/a)

So 4 of those top-end college picks were in the Majors by mid-year of their first pro season, which was essentially what I was trying to say. Two more had to wait 1.5 seasons. Clearly there's variance to when people get called up, but typically the big-name college guys are up pretty quickly and could probably be up immediately (meaning Day 1 of the next season) if it weren't for the extremely robust minor league system that MLB has in place.

- Chillin

Since there is a rookie league (and even higher) it may be the second year. Note that four were in the Majors about one year after draft; two were two years after draft; and five have apparently not appeared in an MLB game three years after being drafted out of college (at least three college years, as I understand it).

Contrast that with the NBA and NFL drafts, where all of the top 12 are on the roster. And the NBAers are typically 19 or 20.

One difference, of course, is that there is no MLB equivalent to the NFL's "special teams," which enables a lot of guys to see action. A MLB team may play 12-15 players a game; the NFL team plays -- what -- around 40?

[ChillinDuke]

Mid-year of their first pro season? Don't players go immediately to a rookie league? No one made it to the majors within a year of their draft date.

Best college players -- four in first (or second) season as a pro. Two in the second (or third season) (2017) and five not yet in the majors three years after draft.

Really different outcome from the top twelve picks in the NBA and NFL drafts in any recent year, and the NBAers are mostly 19-20 YOs. How could there be so much more to learn in baseball?

Well, it's not quite that simple. The draft occurs while the college season (postseason) is still going on. So some players are still playing in college for another few weeks after they are drafted. Then, once the college season is over, the MLB teams have to integrate them into a season already in full-swing at every level. Then, the AAA season, as an example, is usually over by the end of August. So if you're drafted, by the time your college season is over, you have about 2+ months of prep time in the minors, coming directly off a college season (which includes innings limits on pitching arms), learning to become a pro for the first time, all at once, and then join a Major League roster? That seems like quite an ask. For that reason, I don't think it's reasonable to count that first summer as an opportunity to join the big club. It's a whirlwind for a top college prospect in those first couple months. Then, there's the control aspect of how long a team gets contractual control of a player, and there's a definitive date on that every year. So a lot of teams will hold a call-up until after that definitive date to drag their control out for an extra year. That's another large part of it.

Comparing that to the NBA, the draft is during the basketball offseason, for both college and pros. So it's a much more natural fit for on-boarding a player and not really analogous to the baseball schedule. And, like I said previously, my belief is that it's much more a function of having the luxury of stashing players in the minors in baseball vs not having that luxury to the same extent in basketball.

I'm no expert, but that's how I see it in baseball. I don't look at it as a function of needing to "learn". That's part of it. But it's a much more complicated discussion than that. I think as the NBA continues to build out their "minors" you'll probably see a trend where draft picks increasingly start in the G-League. In fact, they sort of do already via Summer League. They are just different situations in many ways.

- Chillin

ETA: Another difference is the NBA's reliance on physical attributes. If you're 7'0" and mobile, you can immediately help an NBA team just by virtue of your size and speed. Baseball is less reliant on physical attributes. If you're the fastest, or strongest, or biggest guy out there, that doesn't necessarily help a team in baseball.

[jimsumner]

Imagine the NBA having its draft in mid-March. And go from there.

[Kedsy]

As a point of comparison, the 2015 MLB Draft occured on 6/10/15 and featured the following players in the first round out of college (parenthesis showing MLB debut):

Dansby Swanson (8/17/16)
Alex Bregman (7/25/16)
Tyler Jay (n/a - injured)
Andrew Benintendi (8/2/16)
Carson Fulmer (7/17/16)
Ian Happ (5/13/17)
James Kaprielian (n/a)
Kevin Newman (n/a)
Richie Martin (n/a)
Walker Buehler (9/7/17)
DJ Stewart (n/a)
Taylor Ward (n/a)

So 4 of those top-end college picks were in the Majors by mid-year of their first pro season, which was essentially what I was trying to say. Two more had to wait 1.5 seasons. Clearly there's variance to when people get called up, but typically the big-name college guys are up pretty quickly and could probably be up immediately (meaning Day 1 of the next season) if it weren't for the extremely robust minor league system that MLB has in place.

- Chillin

I agree that looking at just one season is insufficient data to draw a conclusion. It was just as much data as I was willing to look up.

I do have a small quibble with your analysis, however. All four of the guys you listed who were drafted in 2015 then came up in 2016 played a good portion of the 2015 minor league season and then the majority of the minor league season in 2016. So even the quick-to-the-majors guys played 1.1 to 1.5 seasons before they made the big time (in other words they didn't come up mid-year of their first pro-season; it was during their second), and the others had to wait 2 to 2.5 seasons before they came up (at some point during their third pro season).

It may seem a minor point (pun semi-intended), but to me that makes MLB a lot different than the NBA.

EDIT: I see Sage already brought up this point. Sorry for being late to the response party.

[sagegrouse]

I agree that looking at just one season is insufficient data to draw a conclusion. It was just as much data as I was willing to look up.

I do have a small quibble with your analysis, however. All four of the guys you listed who were drafted in 2015 then came up in 2016 played a good portion of the 2015 minor league season and then the majority of the minor league season in 2016. So even the quick-to-the-majors guys played 1.1 to 1.5 seasons before they made the big time (in other words they didn't come up mid-year of their first pro-season; it was during their second), and the others had to wait 2 to 2.5 seasons before they came up (at some point during their third pro season).

It may seem a minor point (pun semi-intended), but to me that makes MLB a lot different than the NBA.

Yes, I agree. The "bed of Procrustes" and all that about bending the data to fit the hypothesis.

[ChillinDuke]

I agree that looking at just one season is insufficient data to draw a conclusion. It was just as much data as I was willing to look up.

I do have a small quibble with your analysis, however. All four of the guys you listed who were drafted in 2015 then came up in 2016 played a good portion of the 2015 minor league season and then the majority of the minor league season in 2016. So even the quick-to-the-majors guys played 1.1 to 1.5 seasons before they made the big time (in other words they didn't come up mid-year of their first pro-season; it was during their second), and the others had to wait 2 to 2.5 seasons before they came up (at some point during their third pro season).

It may seem a minor point (pun semi-intended), but to me that makes MLB a lot different than the NBA.

EDIT: I see Sage already brought up this point. Sorry for being late to the response party.

Yes, I agree. The "bed of Procrustes" and all that about bending the data to fit the hypothesis.

It's a bit of semantics at this point. I mostly agree with you guys.

Alex Bregman played 146 games in the minors. Benintendi played 151 games in the minors. Those aren't technically full MLB seasons (162 games), but they're close enough in practicality. I don't really have the time or willingness to research further on other guys or other years.

This discussion was borne out of the question "Is baseball a sport that requires years of [minor league] experience, comparative to other sports that largely don't?" I'm happy to just let the answer be, "Yes."

- Chillin

[Kedsy]

Those aren't technically full MLB seasons (162 games), but they're close enough in practicality.

Minor league seasons are only 140 games long. Also, as baseball potentially has a lot of the equivalent of DNP-CDs, if a guy plays 80 games during one season and then 80 games during the next, I think most people would say he played two seasons. Just not every game in the two seasons.

Admittedly, these things also might be semantic.

This discussion was borne out of the question "Is baseball a sport that requires years of [minor league] experience, comparative to other sports that largely don't?" I'm happy to just let the answer be, "Yes."

Fine by me.

[ChillinDuke]

Minor league seasons are only 140 games long. Also, as baseball potentially has a lot of the equivalent of DNP-CDs, if a guy plays 80 games during one season and then 80 games during the next, I think most people would say he played two seasons. Just not every game in the two seasons.

Admittedly, these things also might be semantic.



Fine by me.

Yeah, semantics. But fair enough.

Again, a lot of it has to do with the "Service Time" definition in MLB which deals with when a player is deemed to have completed his 1st Major League Year for contract reasons. It's not coincidence that most of these players were called up late summer. Benintendi, for example, came straight out of college into Short Season A-ball and batted .290. Then they moved him to Full Season A-ball to extend his season, where he promptly batted .351.

Next season he started at High A and batted .341 before getting the call to AA and batting .295 with 8 homies in half a season. The kid was more than likely major league ready on Day 1. But MLB has a robust system and a method for determining free agency, so the team used the minor league system to ease him in while also pushing out his free agency one year further. David Price was largely the same concept. Guy would have been great from Day 1. Same with Strasburg.

But these guys are more an exception than a rule. The point remains that the vast majority of draftees need seasoning in baseball, as opposed to other sports, like basketball. Sorry, I'll stop now.

- Chillin

[Acymetric]

Yeah, semantics. But fair enough.

Again, a lot of it has to do with the "Service Time" definition in MLB which deals with when a player is deemed to have completed his 1st Major League Year for contract reasons. It's not coincidence that most of these players were called up late summer. Benintendi, for example, came straight out of college into Short Season A-ball and batted .290. Then they moved him to Full Season A-ball to extend his season, where he promptly batted .351.

Next season he started at High A and batted .341 before getting the call to AA and batting .295 with 8 homies in half a season. The kid was more than likely major league ready on Day 1. But MLB has a robust system and a method for determining free agency, so the team used the minor league system to ease him in while also pushing out his free agency one year further. David Price was largely the same concept. Guy would have been great from Day 1. Same with Strasburg.

But these guys are more an exception than a rule. The point remains that the vast majority of draftees need seasoning in baseball, as opposed to other sports, like basketball. Sorry, I'll stop now.

- Chillin

Well, I would argue that the majority of players in the other sports need the same (or would equally benefit from it), it just isn't available because there isn't a robust farm system in place for those leagues, so they end up going the trial by fire path playing straight away in the top league.

[ChillinDuke]

Well, I would argue that the majority of players in the other sports need the same (or would equally benefit from it), it just isn't available because there isn't a robust farm system in place for those leagues, so they end up going the trial by fire path playing straight away in the top league.

I already tried arguing that and it didn't go well. So, I'm back to being agreeable for the sake of moving on.

- Chillin

[OldPhiKap]

So . . . How ‘bout them Braves?


Oh, and on college basketball — kids who are ready should just go pro.

Duke will be fine. K will be fine. It will not impact his decision of when to retire in the slightest.

[MarkD83]

It's a bit of semantics at this point. I mostly agree with you guys.

Alex Bregman played 146 games in the minors. Benintendi played 151 games in the minors. Those aren't technically full MLB seasons (162 games), but they're close enough in practicality. I don't really have the time or willingness to research further on other guys or other years.

This discussion was borne out of the question "Is baseball a sport that requires years of [minor league] experience, comparative to other sports that largely don't?" I'm happy to just let the answer be, "Yes."

- Chillin

I will add to that "Yes" answer with something a baseball coach wants told me. "Baseball is the hardest game to learn and play. I know that because if you are successful only 30% of the time you are in the Hall of Fame. That is not true of any other sport."

[OldPhiKap]

I will add to that "Yes" answer with something a baseball coach wants told me. "Baseball is the hardest game to learn and play. I know that because if you are successful only 30% of the time you are in the Hall of Fame. That is not true of any other sport."

Wayne Gretzky only scored on 17.5% of his shots in an all-star career.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...gretzwa01.html

I love baseball. But many things are harder than hitting a baseball I think.

[NSDukeFan]

Wayne Gretzky only scored on 17.5% of his shots in an all-star career.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...gretzwa01.html

I love baseball. But many things are harder than hitting a baseball I think.

All-star career might be a bit of an understatement.

[Reilly]

... he won't leave on his own accord until he feels the house is in order.

I thought order had been restored.

[Philadukie]

Unless they change the rule to require college players to stay at least two years, we’re still going to see many one and done players. To me, from the perspective of college basketball, this seems to be more form than substance.

The players who aren’t quite good enough to go pro out of high school (mostly players outside the top 10 recruits) but have great freshman seasons will leave. In fact, those players might even be in higher demand than most of the high school players coming out, because they’ve proven something at the college level.

College basketball will then be in much the same situation as it is now, with the added headache of some committed high school players deciding to go pro at the last minute (like Livingston).

Isn’t this, in effect, just shifting the position of players along the supply curve?

[OldPhiKap]

All-star career might be a bit of an understatement.

I learned on a different thread, it’s a litotes.

(Off-topic board rocks)

(Though not sure how to use the singular form of the word; thought it was a litote but google makes me question that)

[Bluedog]

Do MLB draftees that get stashed in the minors get large guaranteed contracts like NBA draftees? That could also be a difference (if, in fact, there is one). NBA teams just made huge financial commitments to their draftees while perhaps that's not the same in the MLB until you're more "proven." Just different contracting process... Although I believe several MLB guys do get guaranteed multi-million dollar contracts but I'm not sure it's the same as the NBA where everybody in certain rounds is GUARANTEED a guaranteed contract.

[sagegrouse]

Do MLB draftees that get stashed in the minors get large guaranteed contracts like NBA draftees? That could also be a difference (if, in fact, there is one). NBA teams just made huge financial commitments to their draftees while perhaps that's not the same in the MLB until you're more "proven." Just different contracting process... Although I believe several MLB guys do get guaranteed multi-million dollar contracts but I'm not sure it's the same as the NBA where everybody in certain rounds is GUARANTEED a guaranteed contract.

Not sure, but they do get large bonuses -- upfront money.