One and Done going away, what will Duke (and KY) do?

[kmspeaks]

This is why I don't think allowing players who go undrafted (either out of high school or after 1+ years of college) to retain NCAA eligibility is a viable option. The draft just happens way to late to have that much up in the air for so many teams. You declare and don't pull out by whatever deadline (probably in April, May at the latest), you lose NCAA eligibility. I think that is tough, as many major decisions are, but not horribly unreasonable. A middle ground, I suppose, would be that a player who does not withdraw and then goes undrafted could retain eligibility, but would have to sit out a year like a transfer or something (that is not a solid, fully fleshed out solution, just a suggestion of the direction you would need to go to consider allowing undrafted players to return).

I don't know, baseball makes it work. I believe the deadline for MLB draft picks to sign was a couple days ago.

[azzefkram]

I don't know, baseball makes it work. I believe the deadline for MLB draft picks to sign was a couple days ago.

Baseball has a none or 3 rule plus larger roster sizes. You only have to worry about a few of your incoming freshmen.

[NSDukeFan]

Maybe we let everyone stay eligible and have an NCAA lottery and then a draft the week following the NBA draft. Dispense with recruiting altogether. With the first pick in the 2023 NCAA Draft, the Wofford Terriers select... Bronny James.

We have a trade to announce. The Georgia State Panthers have traded 4th pick, Buckets Williamson to the Tulane Green Wave for 7th pick, Shooter Davis, along
with redshirt freshman quarterback, Ace Gunner, Jr.

Jay Bilas: "Ace Gunner Jr. has a 7' 2" wingspan. That's ridiculous for a quarterback."

Okay. Maybe that's a bad idea.

You’re right. I don’t think Jay should be discussing football. I’m sure he would have strong opinions, but they would likely be less reasonable than his basketball ones.

[devildeac]

Don't want us to get sidetracked by a whole debate about K's future, but he has made it fairly clear in recent interviews that he does not have any idea when he will retire and he doubts it will be any time soon. That said, he is 71 and one has to think he has less than a decade left at Duke.

Did you mean century?

[SoCalDukeFan]

I was thinking this morning about this. I think for recruiting powerhouses like Duke, recruiting the one and done era is actually easier. You go after the best guys. Period.

Recruiting in the "maybe one and done, maybe zero and done, maybe more and done" era has to be more difficult and frustrating. Sure... they did it before, but that was when just a handful of guys even considered going straight from high school to the NBA. Now, 47 guys a year will likely attempt to make the jump. Where do you focus your recruiting efforts when most or all of the good players will go zero and done or test the proverbial waters? What if we had 4 Shaun Livingston situations in one year? That would result in a late, mad scramble to field a team, with cascading effects. Yuck.

I'm very happy to see the guys who want to go pro be able to go pro. That's how it should be. But I would hate to be a recruiter in the next version of that environment.

Finding players good enough to play for Duke and meet the other tests of character and academics and also not good enough to go straight to the NBA will be a real challenge. And then you gotta outrecruit every other school for these guys.

Still will be very happy when one and done is done.

SoCal

[billy]

It will be interesting to see how Duke and KY prepare for the following seasons. Will they just continue to load up on the one and done guys as much as possible, or will they try to incorporate more top 20-60ish guys over the next couple of seasons so they're not rolling out a roster full of guys who are BOTH inexperienced and not lottery-level-talent for the 21-22 season?

Flipping the question, how will UVA fare? Since the advent of one-and-dones at Duke (the year Kyrie Irving was at Duke was 2010-11), UVA has finished 1st or 2nd in the ACC the last 5 years and averaged 6 losses overall. Arguably, much better than the pre one-and-done years (except for maybe 2006-2007). Perhaps UVA's "experienced" teams have fared well against the younger, one-and-done teams. And, perhaps Duke (not sure about Kentucky) will be better off for the potential rule changes.

[jimsumner]

We can only take the MLB/NBA comparison so far.

Major-league baseball teams don't draft high-school players with the expectation that those players will be in the majors in a few months. Heck, they don't even draft college players with that expectation.

And, even with the maturation of the G-League, NBA teams don't have a half-dozen minor-league affiliate, with a hundred plus players under contract.


It's really an apple/oranges comparison.

[JasonEvans]

Maybe we let everyone stay eligible and have an NCAA lottery and then a draft the week following the NBA draft. Dispense with recruiting altogether. With the first pick in the 2023 NCAA Draft, the Wofford Terriers select... Bronny James.

We have a trade to announce. The Georgia State Panthers have traded 4th pick, Buckets Williamson to the Tulane Green Wave for 7th pick, Shooter Davis, along
with redshirt freshman quarterback, Ace Gunner, Jr.

Jay Bilas: "Ace Gunner Jr. has a 7' 2" wingspan. That's ridiculous for a quarterback."

Okay. Maybe that's a bad idea.

Cute, but I suspect it would be more like this:

"The Wofford Terriers announce they have traded the first pick in the 2023 NCAA Draft to the Kentucky Wildcats for the 232nd pick plus cash considerations... lots of cash considerations."

[sagegrouse]

We can only take the MLB/NBA comparison so far.

Major-league baseball teams don't draft high-school players with the expectation that those players will be in the majors in a few months. Heck, they don't even draft college players with that expectation.

And, even with the maturation of the G-League, NBA teams don't have a half-dozen minor-league affiliate, with a hundred plus players under contract.


It's really an apple/oranges comparison.

It's a real question: Why do even the very best amateur baseball players need (usually) multiple years of seasoning in the minor leagues before showing up with the major league club?

Is baseball a craft that requires years of experience in hitting, pitching, fielding and base running? Why is this different from other sports? It may not be in total -- effective rookie quarterbacks are pretty darned scarce, but other rookie NFL players seem to adjust (of course, everyone wants to pick on rookie cornerbacks). Is there any other sport comparable?

[ChillinDuke]

It's a real question: Why do even the very best amateur baseball players need (usually) multiple years of seasoning in the minor leagues before showing up with the major league club?

Is baseball a craft that requires years of experience in hitting, pitching, fielding and base running? Why is this different from other sports? It may not be in total -- effective rookie quarterbacks are pretty darned scarce, but other rookie NFL players seem to adjust (of course, everyone wants to pick on rookie cornerbacks). Is there any other sport comparable?

From the high school level? Yes. Definitely.

From the college level? No, not really. Top-round picks out of college typically don't sit in the minors for more than half a season / one full season. And that's probably more to do with having the ability to let them adjust in one of the half dozen affiliated farm teams as opposed to having the necessity to get them more experience.

- Chillin

[Saratoga2]

We can only take the MLB/NBA comparison so far.

Major-league baseball teams don't draft high-school players with the expectation that those players will be in the majors in a few months. Heck, they don't even draft college players with that expectation.

And, even with the maturation of the G-League, NBA teams don't have a half-dozen minor-league affiliate, with a hundred plus players under contract.


It's really an apple/oranges comparison.

On the other hand, there are many high school basketball stars, their mothers, fathers, cousins and uncles who think they are NBA material out of high school. The arbitors of this are the NBA staffs who probably think no more than 15 or 20 will be able to make the jump without a stint of a year or two in development. So all the others who want to give it a shot are up in the air as far as college recruiting is concerned. Providing a list of likely Draft kids to colleges early and not going beyond those kids would give colleges the advantage of knowing which kids were definately available for recruiting. If they want to recruit players on the NBA list, that would be a risk they can take. Players on the NBA list not signed to a contract would become available late and might be recruited if college team haven't already completely used up their 13 scholarships. If neither the college team or the NBA team picks up one on the list the NBA should pick them up for one of the G-League teams on a nominal contract.

[Troublemaker]

I get why every team having a G-League affiliate would seem ideal, but I am not sure it needs to be a requirement in order to move forward with this. Why would it? Teams are still drafting the same number of players per year, so the same number of available slots should be required to accommodate them.

It's not just about the number of players (although I wouldn't be surprised if the NBA added a 3rd round to the draft). If the idea is that NBA teams will draft 18 year olds straight out of high school and develop them in a beefed up G-league (better facilities, more resources generally), then each franchise needs its own minor league (G-league) team. Teams won't be able to share a G-league team because they may have different ideas on how to develop the youngsters, how much playing time to give, what sets to run, etc. But still, that's a minor consideration. The NBA should be able to add 4 G-league teams (they're at 26) pretty easily and soon. The negotiations over whether one year spent in the G-league will count towards the free agency clock will be more of a stickler, imo.

[Acymetric]

It's not just about the number of players (although I wouldn't be surprised if the NBA added a 3rd round to the draft). If the idea is that NBA teams will draft 18 year olds straight out of high school and develop them in a beefed up G-league (better facilities, more resources generally), then each franchise needs its own minor league (G-league) team. Teams won't be able to share a G-league team because they may have different ideas on how to develop the youngsters, how much playing time to give, what sets to run, etc. But still, that's a minor consideration. The NBA should be able to add 4 G-league teams (they're at 26) pretty easily and soon. The negotiations over whether one year spent in the G-league will count towards the free agency clock will be more of a stickler, imo.

(emphasis mine)

I'm not convinced that is the idea, has Adam explicitly said that this would be part of the plan? My assumption, unless I hear something else from someone of authority (not a writer or someone on a message board giving their take of how things should be) is that the plan would be for things to work the same as they do now.

I do agree that the NBA should and will beef up the G-league soon, with each team having an affiliate. I just disagree that it is a prerequisite for allowing guys to declare straight to high school (or at least, I disagree that the NBA will feel it is a prerequisite).

[Kedsy]

Top-round picks out of college typically don't sit in the minors for more than half a season / one full season.

FWIW, I don't think any first-round pick (not counting the compensatory picks, so 23 picks total) in the 2016 MLB draft has appeared in a major league game yet.

[Acymetric]

FWIW, I don't think any first-round pick (not counting the compensatory picks, so 23 picks total) in the 2016 MLB draft has appeared in a major league game yet.

Only 10 of those picks were college players, which are the players we are talking about. Maybe 2016 was a down year for college-based draft prospects? I don't follow baseball at all, so I don't know if it would be significantly different in previous years.

[Troublemaker]

(emphasis mine)

I'm not convinced that is the idea, has Adam explicitly said that this would be part of the plan? My assumption, unless I hear something else from someone of authority (not a writer or someone on a message board giving their take of how things should be) is that the plan would be for things to work the same as they do now.

For a topic that gets discussed a lot in basketball circles, there are actually no well-defined plans and precious few on-the-record quotes from NBA execs. That's one of the reasons why I had (correctly) assumed that lowering the age limit was going to take longer than people originally estimated last summer/fall; the NBA isn't even sure how it's going to go about accomplishing the task.

That said, Zach Lowe, in his news article about the league memo advising teams that the change will come (in 2021 at the earliest) did have the following unsourced paragraph:

The league has long sought a true minor league system via its developmental G League. The G League will have 27 teams next season, with Portland, New Orleans and Denver the last NBA teams without G League affiliates. The NBA in April announced it will raise G League player salaries from a maximum of $26,000 per year to $35,000. The league last season introduced more lucrative two-way contracts for players who shuttle between the G League and the parent club.

In the end, I believe I am right (and will bet you on it if you want): The NBA will have 30 G League affiliates before the age limit is lowered.

[sagegrouse]

From the high school level? Yes. Definitely.

From the college level? No, not really. Top-round picks out of college typically don't sit in the minors for more than half a season / one full season. And that's probably more to do with having the ability to let them adjust in one of the half dozen affiliated farm teams as opposed to having the necessity to get them more experience.

- Chillin

FWIW, I don't think any first-round pick (not counting the compensatory picks, so 23 picks total) in the 2016 MLB draft has appeared in a major league game yet.

Aha! We could actually collect some data on the subject.

[Acymetric]

For a topic that gets discussed a lot in basketball circles, there are actually no well-defined plans and precious few on-the-record quotes from NBA execs. That's one of the reasons why I had (correctly) assumed that lowering the age limit was going to take longer than people originally estimated last summer/fall; the NBA isn't even sure how it's going to go about accomplishing the task.

That said, Zach Lowe, in his news article about the league memo advising teams that the change will come (in 2021 at the earliest) did have the following unsourced paragraph:

The league has long sought a true minor league system via its developmental G League. The G League will have 27 teams next season, with Portland, New Orleans and Denver the last NBA teams without G League affiliates. The NBA in April announced it will raise G League player salaries from a maximum of $26,000 per year to $35,000. The league last season introduced more lucrative two-way contracts for players who shuttle between the G League and the parent club.

In the end, I believe I am right (and will bet you on it if you want): The NBA will have 30 G League affiliates before the age limit is lowered.

I wouldn't take that bet, because they very well may have 30 G League affiliates by then (I am not disagreeing that the NBA wants to expand the G-League to a true minor league system). I just do not believe the league's position will be that there must be 30 G league affiliates before the age limit is lowered. Given the timeline (minimum 3 years), it is certainly possible that each team will have an affiliate before the draft rule changes, but if they have not finished expanding the G-League I do not think that will delay the changes to draft eligibility for high schoolers.

[MCFinARL]

Ha, how many 81 year old NCAA coaches can you name? K's on a recruiting hot streak which helps keep him around, but I'm not sure you'll find many who expect him to be Duke's coach five years from now.
Coaches aren't about to screw up recruitment by speaking of imminent departure.

Yes, but--thoughtful recruits and their families will ask, even if nothing is being said publicly. At this point, I think K would tell them--honestly as far as we know--that he has no plans to retire as long as he is feeling excited about the job. But you are right that realistically even a 75 or 76 year old coach is probably substantially less energetic and and more vulnerable to health-related issues than a 71 year old coach, and projecting much beyond 76 seems pretty unlikely. So this could become a significant issue if one-and-done goes in the next couple of years.

[ChillinDuke]

FWIW, I don't think any first-round pick (not counting the compensatory picks, so 23 picks total) in the 2016 MLB draft has appeared in a major league game yet.

Yes, Keds, you're right. But that may be insufficient data.

Only 10 of those picks were college players, which are the players we are talking about. Maybe 2016 was a down year for college-based draft prospects? I don't follow baseball at all, so I don't know if it would be significantly different in previous years.

Correct. And 2 of those 10 (Senzel and Puk) have suffered major injuries, or else they may have been up already (Senzel almost assuredly).

Aha! We could actually collect some data on the subject.

My assumption is that it was a down draft.

As a point of comparison, the 2015 MLB Draft occured on 6/10/15 and featured the following players in the first round out of college (parenthesis showing MLB debut):

Dansby Swanson (8/17/16)
Alex Bregman (7/25/16)
Tyler Jay (n/a - injured)
Andrew Benintendi (8/2/16)
Carson Fulmer (7/17/16)
Ian Happ (5/13/17)
James Kaprielian (n/a)
Kevin Newman (n/a)
Richie Martin (n/a)
Walker Buehler (9/7/17)
DJ Stewart (n/a)
Taylor Ward (n/a)

So 4 of those top-end college picks were in the Majors by mid-year of their first pro season, which was essentially what I was trying to say. Two more had to wait 1.5 seasons. Clearly there's variance to when people get called up, but typically the big-name college guys are up pretty quickly and could probably be up immediately (meaning Day 1 of the next season) if it weren't for the extremely robust minor league system that MLB has in place.

- Chillin