2018 French Open

[Troublemaker]

For the few tennis fans, discuss here. Previously, here was our thread for the Australian Open.



At Roland Garros, Serena plays her first Slam since returning from pregnancy, and she draws a Pliskova in the first round. Not exactly a great draw. I like Elina Svitolina to win her first Slam.

Over on the men's side, can anyone take out Rafa? Fed is skipping Roland Garros again to prepare for Wimbledon.

[jimsumner]

I always have a hard time getting up for this one.

Partially, it's because the NCAA baseball tournament starts this weekend but also because the men's bracket is so predictable. If Nadal is healthy, he's going to win.

And American men might as well stay home.

So, it's pretty much a women's event for me.

[Troublemaker]

Defending champ Ostapenko out on the women's side in the first round. The WTA continues to lack a player that can produce year upon year consistency. Serena is 36 (and coming back from pregnancy), and the WTA really needs a star to step up.

I always have a hard time getting up for this one.

Partially, it's because the NCAA baseball tournament starts this weekend but also because the men's bracket is so predictable. If Nadal is healthy, he's going to win.

Sure, but it should be noted that Nadal's only won 1 of the previous 3 French Opens. In 2015, he was playing poorly (for him) and got crushed by Djokovic, and in 2016, he was playing well but got injured and had to withdraw. Do I think he's the favorite that I would take against the field? Yes, but I regard him as more like a 60% favorite rather than a 90% favorite.

And American men might as well stay home.

I'm interested in the Tiafoe-Querrey first-round match. Tiafoe's looking like the best of the young Americans right now, and Querrey has been the best American in recent years (though not at the French).

[Green Wave Dukie]

I'm interested in the Tiafoe-Querrey first-round match. Tiafoe's looking like the best of the young Americans right now, and Querrey has been the best American in recent years (though not at the French).

And speaking of those American first round match-ups, I am interested in the Rubin-Isner match up. And unfortunately, to Jim’s point, Taylor Fritz blew a 2 sets to 1 lead against a qualifier. Also interested in another match-up of fellow countrymen Bernard Tomic and Nick Kyrgios. Not a Kyrgios fan, myself.

[Green Wave Dukie]

. Also interested in another match-up of fellow countrymen Bernard Tomic and Nick Kyrgios. Not a Kyrgios fan, myself.

Well, I guess I’ll have to find another interest. Apparently Kyrgios withdrew and Tomic lost to the Lucky Loser that got Nick’s spot.

[elvis14]

What do you all think about Serena being unseeded. Seems wrong to me (it's Serena Williams on a tennis court) but that's a knee jerk reaction for now as I don't know the history nor the decision making process.

[CDu]

What do you all think about Serena being unseeded. Seems wrong to me (it's Serena Williams on a tennis court) but that's a knee jerk reaction for now as I don't know the history nor the decision making process.

The French seeds based on WTA ranking. The rankings are based on a rolling average of results. Since Serena hasn’t played since January of 2017 after pregnancy and childbirth, her ranking is #451. Thus, she is unseeded.

Wimbledon does not rely solely on rankings to seed. So, that fact combined with the probability that Serena will substantially improve her ranking will mean she will likely be seeded by then.

[Bluedog]

What do you all think about Serena being unseeded. Seems wrong to me (it's Serena Williams on a tennis court) but that's a knee jerk reaction for now as I don't know the history nor the decision making process.

At least Serena did get to use her "protected ranking" (used as a mechanism for those that have been injured/out for at least 6 months to be able to use their average ranking before the injury for a certain number of tournaments upon returning) as she wouldn't even make the draw of the French ranked 450th in the world! Of course, it would have been non-sensical for her to have to play the qualifiers or not be in the draw. I can understand both perspectives -- it's hard to know what type of player somebody is when taking that much time off, but it also seems absurd for somebody like Serena to be unseeded as is more unfair to her opponents to some extent, if they got unlucky and end up in her part of the bracket. But tennis is a "what have you done for me lately" sport, and nobody can rest on their laurels from years ago like team sports where legacies have been established and contracts are based on what you've done in the past. Tennis only cares about what you are doing NOW and obviously Serena has been out. Fortunately for her, it's not like she got slotted up against a top seed or anything and actually has a decent part of the bracket although her first round matchup is no gimme. Looks like there's added pressure to change the rules according to this NY Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/s...ench-open.html

Edited to add: it'd also be VERY hard to accurately place Serena. What seed does she deserve? I don't think she has produced results since coming back to deserve #1 but certainly within the top 32. So, it's a major guessing game that I guess Wimbledon will have to do. But for simplicity, it's easier to simply have a rule that says "look at the rankings" and then you can't be accused of playing favorites.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The French seeds based on WTA ranking. The rankings are based on a rolling average of results. Since Serena hasn’t played since January of 2017 after pregnancy and childbirth, her ranking is #451. Thus, she is unseeded.

Wimbledon does not rely solely on rankings to seed. So, that fact combined with the probability that Serena will substantially improve her ranking will mean she will likely be seeded by then.

She actually played an event in Asheville a few months ago! Was quite the excitement.

[Green Wave Dukie]

And American men might as well stay home.

Now Jim, why would you say such a thing?

With the first round of the men's completed and 1/2 of the 2nd round, my unofficial count is USA men have 4 wins and 9 losses (and I think 2 of each were 2 American's playing each other). Isner and Steve Johnson are the only ones left, each still in the 2nd round, and presumably they both play tomorrow. As one who lives in Greensboro and knows folks that know Isner (and they say he's a bonafide good guy), I hope he does well. But his game is certainly not meant for clay, and going from memory, I'd be surprised if he's gotten thru 3 rounds frequently, if ever, in the French.

A the bottom of the draw, I like the Dzumhur - Zverev match up. Zverev took 5 sets to win his 2nd round match, albeit against a good clay court player in Dusan Lajovic. He was down 1 sets to 1. Although Dzumhur was actually down 2 sets to love against Vesely. Troublemaker, I'm not willing to wager a pie here, but mark down Dzumhur over Zverev as my first upset pick.

[Troublemaker]

A the bottom of the draw, I like the Dzumhur - Zverev match up. Zverev took 5 sets to win his 2nd round match, albeit against a good clay court player in Dusan Lajovic. He was down 1 sets to 1. Although Dzumhur was actually down 2 sets to love against Vesely. Troublemaker, I'm not willing to wager a pie here, but mark down Dzumhur over Zverev as my first upset pick.

A ballsy pick, my friend, as Dzumhur is roughly a 10 to 1 dog by the gambling market. I usually don't like to pick an upset when the favorite just came off a scare, as Zverev just survived a 5-setter against Lajovic. Therefore, I think Zverev comes out focused in his next match and rolls Dzumhur in straight sets, something like 6-4, 6-3, 6-3.

I don't feel good about ending this post here, though, with me picking a 10 to 1 favorite to win while you had the balls to pick the other side. So I will go ahead and pick an upset as well (though not a 10 to 1 upset). Frenchman Gilles Simon, a roughly 3 to 1 underdog, will use the home crowd as energy to eliminate Kei Nishikori from Roland Garros.

[Troublemaker]

Troublemaker, I'm not willing to wager a pie here, but mark down Dzumhur over Zverev as my first upset pick.

This one's going to a 5th set, Green Wave! No matter what happens, I think you made a good call here and I was way off. Dzumhur didn't deserve to be a 10 to 1 underdog.

(Also, Nish seems to be controlling the match with Simon, so my own upset call was off. The two matches should've traded odds).

[Green Wave Dukie]

This one's going to a 5th set, Green Wave! No matter what happens, I think you made a good call here and I was way off. Dzumhur didn't deserve to be a 10 to 1 underdog.

(Also, Nish seems to be controlling the match with Simon, so my own upset call was off. The two matches should've traded odds).

Thanks. And now 4 all in the 5th. Could go a bit - though don't think 70-68 is likely in the 5th. And Dimitrov loses in straight sets to Verdasco. Big surprise to me there - especially Dimitrov losing in straight sets.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Thanks. And now 4 all in the 5th. Could go a bit - though don't think 70-68 is likely in the 5th. And Dimitrov loses in straight sets to Verdasco. Big surprise to me there - especially Dimitrov losing in straight sets.

Didn't get to see it while here at work, but apparently Zverev saves a match point and wins 7-5 in the fifth. Bummer. Still have the aftertaste of a complimentary pie I'm sure Trouble would have sent my way as a measure of good faith, but alas, not to be.

Simon goes down in straight sets and looks like Joker might be in for a long day w/Agut. Think Agut could give him a tussle, and while it's not fair to predict an upset at a set apiece, wouldn't be surprised at all if Joker goes down.

[Troublemaker]

Didn't get to see it while here at work, but apparently Zverev saves a match point and wins 7-5 in the fifth. Bummer. Still have the aftertaste of a complimentary pie I'm sure Trouble would have sent my way as a measure of good faith, but alas, not to be.

Simon goes down in straight sets and looks like Joker might be in for a long day w/Agut. Think Agut could give him a tussle, and while it's not fair to predict an upset at a set apiece, wouldn't be surprised at all if Joker goes down.

Yeah, the tennis world is still waiting for Novak to find his dominant form after a prolonged slump. I have no doubt he'll get there eventually like Roger and Rafa did before him overcoming THEIR prolonged slumps.

Over on the women's side, the most popular pick to win (including by me) Elina Svitolina just went down. She's like the Zverev of the women's tour, someone who has played very well in the Masters events but struggles in the Slams.

And yes, Green Wave, a 10 to 1 winner deserves to eat pie! Alas...

[Green Wave Dukie]

But his (Isner's) game is certainly not meant for clay, and going from memory, I'd be surprised if he's gotten thru 3 rounds frequently, if ever, in the French.

Well, shows what I know. He just did. Beat Herbert in 3 straight sets. So, John is the last US man standing and has done well. Round of 16, where he comes up against Del Potro. Can't imagine him being the big Argentine, but you never know. Lots of great round of 16 matches on the men's side, and the drama of Serena - Sharapova on the Women's. Think Serena has won like 16 straight, but if Maria is going to break the streak, now is the time.

And since my first upset pick was ever so close, time for another. Fognini over #3 seed Cilic. Trouble, what do you think?

[Troublemaker]

Well, shows what I know. He just did. Beat Herbert in 3 straight sets. So, John is the last US man standing and has done well. Round of 16, where he comes up against Del Potro. Can't imagine him being the big Argentine, but you never know. Lots of great round of 16 matches on the men's side, and the drama of Serena - Sharapova on the Women's. Think Serena has won like 16 straight, but if Maria is going to break the streak, now is the time.

And since my first upset pick was ever so close, time for another. Fognini over #3 seed Cilic. Trouble, what do you think?

Yeah, Sweet 16 means some of the big names will start playing each other. Looking forward to Thiem-Nishikori and Serena-Maria.

I love watching Fognini play but it just seems like on the men's side, the conditions are favoring tall guys right now for some reason. Maybe there's nothing to it (small sample size + recency bias on my part) but I think the much taller Cilic, a 2 to 1 favorite, will advance. I'll be rooting for the Fogster though, and last time I doubted your upset pick, it almost came through!

If I were forced to pick an upset this round, I'd go with Cecchinato over Goffin, a 4 to 1 favorite but height-challenged. (Although I love watching Goffin play, too).

[snowdenscold]

Well, shows what I know. He just did. Beat Herbert in 3 straight sets. So, John is the last US man standing and has done well. Round of 16, where he comes up against Del Potro. Can't imagine him being the big Argentine, but you never know.

He took Del Potro down in the Miami semifinals 6-1, 7-6 (2) on his way to his first Masters 1000 title, FWIW.

Lots of great round of 16 matches on the men's side, and the drama of Serena - Sharapova on the Women's. Think Serena has won like 16 straight, but if Maria is going to break the streak, now is the time.

Serena's ideal bracket is one where every other entry says 'Sharapova.'

But yes, if there ever was a time for Maria, I agree it's probably now. I still favor Serena, but not the way I would have 2+ years ago (where I would have given her 10:1 probably).

[Troublemaker]

Thiem takes care of Nishikori pretty routinely.

Hoping to see a more competitive match between Serena and Maria tomorrow... if it even gets played tomorrow. LOTS of rain being projected for the next 3 days. If a couple of tournament days get completely rained out, then stamina becomes a bigger factor as the tournament progresses since players might not get 1 days rest in between matches anymore.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Yeah, Sweet 16 means some of the big names will start playing each other. Looking forward to Thiem-Nishikori and Serena-Maria.

I love watching Fognini play but it just seems like on the men's side, the conditions are favoring tall guys right now for some reason. Maybe there's nothing to it (small sample size + recency bias on my part) but I think the much taller Cilic, a 2 to 1 favorite, will advance. I'll be rooting for the Fogster though, and last time I doubted your upset pick, it almost came through!

If I were forced to pick an upset this round, I'd go with Cecchinato over Goffin, a 4 to 1 favorite but height-challenged. (Although I love watching Goffin play, too).

Cecchinato pulls the upset in 4 sets!! Well done, my friend.