Which NBA Team is Most Likely To Win Games 6 and 7?

[Jeffrey]

Sadly, the Chris Paul injury changes everything. With no Paul, I'd raise Golden State's chance of reaching the finals to more like 70%.

Minus Paul - 97% (GSW wins Game 6) x 75% (GSW wins Game 7) = 72.75% chance of GSW in the Finals

This is why the Casino usually wins. They move the damn lines right before you try to make a prudent wager.

[Indoor66]

you try to make a prudent wager.

There is an oxymoron in there, I think.

[Troublemaker]

Sadly, the Chris Paul injury changes everything. With no Paul, I'd raise Golden State's chance of reaching the finals to more like 70%.

Minus Paul - 97% (GSW wins Game 6) x 75% (GSW wins Game 7) = 72.75% chance of GSW in the Finals

Hmmm, those percentages seem to give GSW TOO much credit now. And they certainly don't match the sportsbooks moneylines; from what I've seen, the betting market estimates GSW to be around an 88% favorite for Game 6, for example. Still a very heavy favorite, but not an astronomical 97% favorite.

One thing to keep in mind about Houston is that they're a very volatile team with how many 3-pt shots they put up. They could randomly have a hot shooting game in one of these next two games. And Harden strikes me as the type of player that when the pressure is off for Game 6 (since nobody expects them to win), his shot could dial in.

[Jeffrey]

There is an oxymoron in there, I think.

Sure, many of us fools wager at the Wall Street Casino daily. The Casino owners are the only certain winners.

[Jeffrey]

Hmmm, those percentages seem to give GSW TOO much credit now.

Agreed! I'm starting to think this is the way Jason's Casino tries to attract players. They'll probably move the damn line again, right before you try to make a prudent wager.

[JNort]

I'd put it at:

85% (Cavs win Game 6) x 30% (Cavs win Game 7) = 25.5% chance of Cavs in the Finals

90% (GSW wins Game 6) x 50% (GSW wins Game 7) = 45% chance of GSW in the Finals

Still, no question that Golden State is the more likely team to reach the finals.

So your telling me there's a chance...


C mon Cavs! Bring daddy home a pie!

[Jeffrey]

When does Jason's Casino open? I'll take the Cavs & GSW with those lines.

Wonder what the current odds are of GSW winning The Finals?

This is why the Casino usually wins. They move the damn lines right before you try to make a prudent wager.

Damn Casino!