Midterm Elections 2018

[dudog84]

Quite possible. One thing I'll back off on, though, is my prior prediction of several Hollywood celebrities entering the fray. I think #MeToo is the great limiter there. If anyone followed the Harvey Weinstein story, his behavior was basically an open secret in Hollywood. Once you eliminate celebrities that (a) have committed sexual assault before or (b) knew about Weinstein but did nothing, I think you eliminate almost everyone, sadly.

Really? I think it's been proven quite conclusively that millions and millions of voters don't give a whit about sexual assault.

Edit: Oops, I get it now. Wouldn't be able to get votes in a Democratic primary.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Really? I think it's been proven quite conclusively that millions and millions of voters don't give a whit about sexual assault.

[chris13]

Pelosi wasn't just used as a cudgel against Democrats in the House races. She was used (ad nauseam) in ads against Claire McCaskell in the Senate race here.

That's fair and I was snarky in my first post. My only question would be that if Trump's approval rating weren't 10 points higher in Missouri than it is nationally, would the Nancy Pelosi stuff have made a difference (source: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/).

I think the Democrats actually dodged a bullet in the Senate. They were defending seats in 10 states that Trump won in 2016 (PA, MI, OH, WI, MT, WV, MO, FL, IN, ND) and they won 6. However, they are going to have a problem in the Senate going forward because states they used to be able win in the Senate like the Dakotas and Missouri and Arkansas and Louisiana now seem really red.

[JasonEvans]

I didn't follow many polls this year, since they were so wrong in 2016. How did they do this year?
Specifically speaking of the big races, such as Florida, Georgia, Arizona. Did the outcomes reflect the predictions?

I picked these because they were among the most closely watched and most polled races.

Here are the 538 projections (based on polls only) versus the actual votes (sorted by how close the polls were to getting it right)

Georgia Gov - Kemp by 2.2%; Kemp by 1.6% (off by 0.6%)
Montana Senate - Tester by 3.5%; Tester by 1.1% (off by 2.4%)
Arizona Senate - Sinema by 1.8%; McSally by .9% (off by 2.7%)
Florida Senate - Nelson by 3%; Scott by 0.4% (off by 3.4%)
Texas Senate - Cruz by 5.3%; Cruz by 1.7% (off by 3.6%)
Nevada Senate - Rosen by 1.1%; Rosen by 5.3% (off by 4.2%)
Florida Gov - Gillum by 4.2%; Desantis by 0.8% (off by 5.0%)
Kansas Gov - Kobach by 1.3%; Kenny by 4.5% (off by 5.8%)
Missouri Senate - McCaskill by 0.5%; Hawley by 6% (off by 6.5%)

Now, the Arizona senate race was pretty good on the part of the polls, only a 2.4% difference, but because the race was so tight, that 2.4% took it from a Dem pickup to a GOP hold. That causes us to be perhaps more critical of the polls in that race.

[OldPhiKap]

Now, the Arizona senate race was pretty good on the part of the polls, only a 2.4% difference, but because the race was so tight, that 2.4% took it from a Dem pickup to a GOP hold. That causes us to be perhaps more critical of the polls in that race.

Isn't that essentially the margin of error though?

Of the list, the only ones that really jump out at me are the bottom three because there is a difference greater than the margin of error:

Florida Gov - Gillum by 4.2%; Desantis by 0.8% (off by 5.0%)
Kansas Gov - Kobach by 1.3%; Kenny by 4.5% (off by 5.8%)
Missouri Senate - McCaskill by 0.5%; Hawley by 6% (off by 6.5%)

[JasonEvans]

I'll head this off before anyone chimes in.

Jeff Sessions being asked to resign (being fired?) is not on topic and cannot be discussed on the DBR. It is not part of the voting or the vote counting and is off limits.

[Troublemaker]

Really? I think it's been proven quite conclusively that millions and millions of voters don't give a whit about sexual assault.

Edit: Oops, I get it now. Wouldn't be able to get votes in a Democratic primary.

Exactly. Take politically-outspoken Ben Affleck, for example. He's someone that, in 2016 when I was predicting massive celebrity involvement in the 2020 D primaries, I would've expected to maybe throw his hat in the ring. But since then, he's been MeToo-ed by two women (Vox keeps a running list at this link for all celebs), and he's someone that probably can't plausibly deny that he knew about Weinstein. The D politicians would kill him on it.

So yeah, no longer expecting much celebrity involvement in presidential primaries.

[House P]

As others have mentioned, Maine will be using ranked-choice voting for federal* elections. It is unlikely to matter much in the Senate and House District 1 races, where Angus King and Chellie Pingree are expected to win easily. However, it might make a difference in House District 2. Fivethirtyeight's "polls-only" model currently predicts Democrat Jared Golden to receive 48.8% and incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin to receive 47.7% of the vote. If this happens, the winner will be determined by the "second choice" votes of those who voted for two Independent candidates (currently predicted to receive 3.6% of the vote).

Maine's 2nd district is almost certainly headed to an instant runoff. With 83% of precincts reporting and more than 260,000 votes counted, Bruce Poliquin currently leads Jared Golden by 362 votes. The ultimate winner will determined after the 2nd (and 3rd) choices are tallied from the 3rd and 4th place candidates (who have received more than 20,000 votes so far).

The 4th place finisher, who has received 2.4% of the votes, is special ed teacher who supports environmental causes. I suspect the majority of his votes will ultimately go to the Democratic candidate. The 3rd place finisher, who has received 5.7% of the votes, is a family law attorney running as a nonpartisan who claims that "both parties have good ideas and bad ideas". It is not clear which way her 2nd place votes will break, but it looks like we are going to find out.

[Udaman]

Not to toot my own horn (well, OK just a little)...I predicted 205 locks for Dems. All came in.

Predicted 228 seats. That's the projection at the moment, with one outstanding - Maine 2. So final tally is going to be 228 or 229 in all likelihood.

Now we all catch our breath for a year and then the fun really starts!!!

Update on the House elections, and how to watch and see what happens.

By my count (with help from 538 and realclear politics), I show the Dems with pretty much locks for 205 House seats. They need 218 to flip the house, so need to pick up an additional 13. Here's the breakdown:

6 pm. Polls close in Indiana and part of Kentucky. There's 1 toss-up county in Kentucky. It's 6. But it's in a red state and Incumbent is a Republican. If the Dems win this...it's a big sign for a good night. If the GOP wins, it's not the end of the world...but it will make for some tense Democrats - especially if they call it early. In Indiana, there's a seat the Dems could "steal." It would be the 9th, near Bloomington, where Liz Watson is the Democrat. If she wins this seat, that would be the first signal for a big blue wave. If she loses, that's what is currently expected.

7 pm. Rest of Indiana closes, as does Florida (most), Georgia, rest of Kentucky, New Hampshire, Virginia, South Carolina and Vermont. We get several toss-ups here: Virginia 5 and 7, Georgia 6 and Florida 26. When you add in the one in Kentucky, that's 5 total. Even if the Dems take 2 of these 5, they will be feeling pretty good. 3 or more and they are feeling great. 1 or less and the networks will start talking about the Republicans holding the House. There are also a few seats that the Dems could steal from fairly red districts. Notably Virginia 2 and Florida 6 and 15. I'll make a bold statement right here: If the Dems take 3 or more of these swing districts and even 1 of the "steals" (out of 4), you can fully stop wondering if the Dems will take the House...it will be pretty much a sure thing.

7:30. North Carolina, Ohio and and West Virginia. Just 1 Toss-up here. The North Carolina 9th. There are 3 Republican leaning that could be stolen however, NC 7 and 13 and Ohio 12.

8 pm. The flood gates open: Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Texas, Tennessee, N Dakota. Obviously there are Senate issues here, as we find out of Texas or Tennessee flip, and if N Dakota flips red. For the House, though we have 4 seats that should go blue. ME 2, Michigan 8 and 11, and Illinois 14. The Dems really, really need to win all of them. If not, then of course their "Magic Number" to clinch goes up. There are also several toss-up seats in this window: New Jersey 3, Pennsylvania 1, Illinois 6, Kansas 2, Texas 7, Michigan 6. And if the Dams manage to steal any seats, they would be looking at Penn 10 and 16, Michigan 7, Illinois 12 and 13, Missouri 2, and Texas 32.

9 pm. New York, Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Minnesota. New York has a blue leaning district, 19 and a toss-up in 22. Minnesota has a toss-up in 1. Arizona has a blue leaning district in 1. There are also some districts the Dems could steal in NY 2, 23, 24 and 27, Wisconsin 1 and Nebraska 2.

That's it. Well, OK, not really. Still more states after that. But it's highly likely that it will all be over by then. If not, in means there hasn't been a blue wave in any shape or form, and the Dems will likely be struggling to get to a majority (and they'll need a lot to break for them).

Bottom line: Dems need 218 seats. 205 of them are basically locks. So then need 13 more. By 9:50 pm, those seats in play for the 13 are

Leaning Dems (seats the Dems should win, and really need to win): 6 Maine 2, NY 19, Michigan 8 and 11, Illinois, 14, Arizona 1

Toss-ups: 13 NY 22, NJ 3, PA 1, VA 5 and 7, NC 9, GA 6, FL 26, KY 6, IL 6, KS 2, TX 7, MN 1

Red Districts they could steal: 20 NY 2, 23, 24, 27, PA 10 and 16, VA 2, NC 7 and 13, FL 6 and 15, IN 9, OH 12, MI 7, IL 12 and 13, MO 2, TX 32, WI 1, NE 2

Get 13 out of those and it's all over. And by they way, even if they don't get 13 out of those...they might just need 9 total...because there are 4 more "leaning Dem" districts in the late night returns: Nevada 4, Washington 8, Oregon 5, California 10. Anyone pulling for the Dems will be hoping those last 4 are just icing on the cake.

My prediction? I pretty much agree with Nate Silver...there are a ton of paths to the Dems taking the House...for the GOP it would take almost everything to go right for them and wrong for the Dems. I don't think that happens. I predict they end up with 228 seats or more.

[YmoBeThere]

So, am I wrong in thinking that the thread poll pretty much got it right?

[JasonEvans]

So, am I wrong in thinking that the thread poll pretty much got it right?

We were definitely collectively right about the Senate, though I sorta wish I had put in at least one more option on the GOP side to spread out the GOP-Senate optimists a bit more. In the House, the biggest choice was Dems win by 12 seats or less and it looks like the Dems will control by something in the low-mid 20s, so I'd say we were collectively close on the House, but not quite perfect.

[OldPhiKap]

CNN calls GA-6 for the Dems:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/polit...ess/index.html

On a personal note for those in the area, my congratulations to Jen Jordan for winning the GA-6 State Senate race. I've known her husband forever and practiced law with her father-in-law for a few decades.

John Barrow and the Ga. Sec. of State office headed to a run-off. Governor's race still not decided and there is some kerfuffle about how the election is being handled (again).

The face of Georgia is changing.

[JasonEvans]

CNN calls GA-6 for the Dems:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/polit...ess/index.html

On a personal note for those in the area, my congratulations to Jen Jordan for winning the GA-6 State Senate race. I've known her husband forever and practiced law with her father-in-law for a few decades.

John Barrow and the Ga. Sec. of State office headed to a run-off. Governor's race still not decided and there is some kerfuffle about how the election is being handled (again).

The face of Georgia is changing.

Lindy Miller, for Public Service Commissioner, is also headed for a runoff. I know both her and John Barrow and wish them luck, but the reality is that unless Abrams finds a way into a runoff, the GOP will win both of those runoff races. Neither Barrow nor Miller will be able to energize the Democratic base in Georgia enough to get a runoff win without Abrams also being on the ticket, I think.

I think Abrams chances of getting to a runoff are fairly slim... unless the Secy of State's office is lying about how many provisional and absentee ballots still need to be counted. They put the figure at around 25k and even if Abrams took every one of those votes, I think Kemp would still just barely slip in at like 50.1%.

[OldPhiKap]

Lindy Miller, for Public Service Commissioner, is also headed for a runoff. I know both her and John Barrow and wish them luck, but the reality is that unless Abrams finds a way into a runoff, the GOP will win both of those runoff races. Neither Barrow nor Miller will be able to energize the Democratic base in Georgia enough to get a runoff win without Abrams also being on the ticket, I think.

I think Abrams chances of getting to a runoff are fairly slim... unless the Secy of State's office is lying about how many provisional and absentee ballots still need to be counted. They put the figure at around 25k and even if Abrams took every one of those votes, I think Kemp would still just barely slip in at like 50.1%.

Brian Kemp just resigned as Secretary of State.

Seriously. Just now. Effective right before noon today.

Can't make this up.

[PackMan97]

Brian Kemp just resigned as Secretary of State.

Seriously. Just now. Effective right before noon today.

Can't make this up.

He's got to start getting ready for his new job.

[chris13]

I think Democrats had hoped to do better and some folks would cherry pick polls to reinforce the hope that they had a chance in the Senate or that they might win a few more Governor races, but the results are largely what was predicted. Here are my biggest surprises:

• Florida Gov and Senate were not as close as had been expected and I think most folks expected Democratic wins in both.
• Beto O'Rourke gave Ted Cruz a major scare, far closer than most were expecting.
• It looks like Rep. Duncan Hunter won by nearly ten points, 54-45, despite a fairly significant scandal. Props to him.
• Kris Kobach going down in Kansas surprised me. I mean, Kansas has a Democratic Governor... whaaat?!?!

Believe it or not, over the last 40 years, the Kansas governor's office has been Democratic for 20 years and Republican for 20 years. Kansas is like the mirror image of Massachusetts, the deep blue state that has had multiple Republican governors.

In this specific case, and let me know if this strays from DBR's public policy guidelines and edit if needed, I might have some insight since i have family in Kansas. In 2010, Sam Brownback, former Senator, was elected Governor. In 2017, he left with an approval rating in the low 20s when Trump appointed him to an ambassadorship. Kobach promised to pursue and restore Brownback's policy agenda, including the parts the Republican legislature had clashed with Brownback on. Several Republican luminaries in Kansas (Nancy Kassabaum, former governor Bill Graves) endorsed Democrat Laura Kelly and she won a 48-43 victory.

This article gives more detail if you care: https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.724892d194f0

[JasonEvans]

And then Jason spoke two words, two words that threatened to keep the thread open for weeks, perhaps months...

Florida Recount!



As provisional and absentee ballots are coming in, the Fla Gov and Sen races are getting closer.

Gillum trailed DeSantis by less than 39,000 votes, or 0.47 percentage points. A machine recount is automatically triggered if the margin drops below 0.5 points.

In the Senate race, Nelson trailed Scott by about 17,000 votes, a margin of 0.22 points. A hand recount of ballots, longer and more thorough than a machine recount, is triggered if the margin falls below 0.25 points.

-Jason "popcorn anyone?" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

-Jason "popcorn anyone?" Evans

That picture gave me a bad flashback.

[dudog84]

And then Jason spoke two words, two words that threatened to keep the thread open for weeks, perhaps months...

Florida Recount!



As provisional and absentee ballots are coming in, the Fla Gov and Sen races are getting closer.



-Jason "popcorn anyone?" Evans

Interesting that our polls were so wrong, so maybe they were right?

Always hanky-panky in Florida. All you other states are just posers.

[elvis14]

Always hanky-panky in Florida. All you other states are just posers.

Georgia pipes up and says, "Hold my beer"...