Midterm Elections 2018

[dudog84]

Florida anecdote:

Early voting started on Saturday, at about 5 libraries across the county. I'm a regular at the local library, and today there was no parking. A nearby public lot was also full. I've never seen anything close to this, even in a presidential year.

I think I know what it means, but what I think doesn't matter. We'll know in a week.

I will opine on one thing...I think the efforts to gin up one's base has an equal and possibly greater effect on the other side's base this year. That goes for both sides.

[JasonEvans]

We are going to need to look over the next couple days to see, but I am hearing there is some early evidence that the terrible tragedy on Sunday -- and especially the coverage of Trump's reaction to it -- has impacted polling on the President (which would likely also spill over a bit into some House/Sen/Gov races). The White House is said to be in a mild freak-out mode, which is one reason they were trying to change the conversation today by talking about using an Executive Order to overturn parts of the 14th Amendment.

As I said, we need to see if there is polling evidence over the next couple days to back it up, but I am being told that any poll done before 10/29 may have fairly limited predictive value at this point.

-Jason "one minor piece of evidence, YouGov's Trump approval number was 41-51 (-10) on Oct 26 and it was 39-57 (-18) on Oct 29. That could just be statistical noise... but it could also be a GOP disaster in the making" Evans

[PackMan97]

-Jason "one minor piece of evidence, YouGov's Trump approval number was 41-51 (-10) on Oct 26 and it was 39-57 (-18) on Oct 29. That could just be statistical noise... but it could also be a GOP disaster in the making" Evans

The problem with a loose cannon is that you can't always control the aim.

[OldPhiKap]

We are going to need to look over the next couple days to see, but I am hearing there is some early evidence that the terrible tragedy on Sunday -- and especially the coverage of Trump's reaction to it -- has impacted polling on the President (which would likely also spill over a bit into some House/Sen/Gov races). The White House is said to be in a mild freak-out mode, which is one reason they were trying to change the conversation today by talking about using an Executive Order to overturn parts of the 14th Amendment.

As I said, we need to see if there is polling evidence over the next couple days to back it up, but I am being told that any poll done before 10/29 may have fairly limited predictive value at this point.

-Jason "one minor piece of evidence, YouGov's Trump approval number was 41-51 (-10) on Oct 26 and it was 39-57 (-18) on Oct 29. That could just be statistical noise... but it could also be a GOP disaster in the making" Evans

George Conway, a conservative lawyer and husband of Kellyanne Conway, has an Op-Ed in the WaPo describing why the whole Executive Order thing is unconstitutional. So that will make for fun over coffee this morning.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...utional-949758

George has retweeted anti-Trump things before, and on a fairly consistent basis. This is pretty brazen though.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Voted this morning. For me there was really no national impact on the ballot. The one congress race is being run by Walter Jones (R) unopposed.
For NC, the big ballot issue is 6 constitutional amendments being voted yes or no to. Hopefully people have researched them before voting.
My line was very quick, only a few people there with no wait. I imagine there is more of a line as the day progresses.

[OldPhiKap]

No line at my early voting precinct, but it looked like pretty steady business.

[PackMan97]

For NC, the big ballot issue is 6 constitutional amendments being voted yes or no to. Hopefully people have researched them before voting.

The "nix all six" is interesting to me and just shows how awful politics have become. Even if you lean toward one side or the other, lumping them all together and failing to provide any reasons other than "they are for/against them so I'll vote this way" is just plain bad politics. Please educate yourself and vote for them individually.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The "nix all six" is interesting to me and just shows how awful politics have become. Even if you lean toward one side or the other, lumping them all together and failing to provide any reasons other than "they are for/against them so I'll vote this way" is just plain bad politics. Please educate yourself and vote for them individually.

I really had no idea what each one did, and I wasn't going to vote yes or no without knowing. I do the same with races I'm not familiar with; if I can't make an informed decision, I leave the selections blank . I'm not a fan of how they are presented on the ballot, so research is extra important. I actually used a writeup from Duke Today to help me understand.

https://today.duke.edu/2018/10/what-...s-nc-ballot-do

[BandAlum83]

The "nix all six" is interesting to me and just shows how awful politics have become. Even if you lean toward one side or the other, lumping them all together and failing to provide any reasons other than "they are for/against them so I'll vote this way" is just plain bad politics. Please educate yourself and vote for them individually.

I'd support one that precludes that "school" in Chapel Hill from participating in division 1 sports.

[BandAlum83]

I really had no idea what each one did, and I wasn't going to vote yes or no without knowing. I do the same with races I'm not familiar with; if I can't make an informed decision, I leave the selections blank . I'm not a fan of how they are presented on the ballot, so research is extra important. I actually used a writeup from Duke Today to help me understand.

https://today.duke.edu/2018/10/what-...s-nc-ballot-do

Thanks for the link. I won't editorialized. I'll just leave this quote from the article for all to ponder:

“It’s really clear that our state is getting more multicultural, more educated, and the economy is moving more into the cities,” he said. “Rather than thinking about the future, [Republicans] are thinking in terms of next year. They’re worried about demography being destiny in North Carolina.”

[PackMan97]

I really had no idea what each one did, and I wasn't going to vote yes or no without knowing. I do the same with races I'm not familiar with; if I can't make an informed decision, I leave the selections blank

I see no problem with that. I wish more did that. I'm a stick in the mud when it comes to voting. I don't think everyone should vote. If you aren't going to bother to learn about the candidates and instead just vote party lines, I'd rather you stay home. The only power we have (short of civil disobedience) is voting and it should be taken seriously.

[OldPhiKap]

New poll shows Stacey Abrams ahead of Brian Kemp by a point in Georgia's gubernatorial race:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...y-tight-races/

Margin of error, but still.

(It also notes that the Libertarian candidate may force a runoff because the law in Georgia requires 50%+1 to win. Sooooooo -- we may not be over here unfortunately).

[CameronBornAndBred]

New poll shows Stacey Abrams ahead of Brian Kemp by a point in Georgia's gubernatorial race:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...y-tight-races/

Margin of error, but still.

(It also notes that the Libertarian candidate may force a runoff because the law in Georgia requires 50%+1 to win. Sooooooo -- we may not be over here unfortunately).

That's goofy. That means that there would have to be a runoff if the leading candidate got 49%, and the other two got 25%/26%. There would be a clear winner, yet money would have to be spent to do it again. That scenario won't apply in this race, but it's still goofy.

[PackMan97]

That's goofy. That means that there would have to be a runoff if the leading candidate got 49%, and the other two got 25%/26%. There would be a clear winner, yet money would have to be spent to do it again. That scenario won't apply in this race, but it's still goofy.

I've always thought there should be a last option in every race, "None of the above". If "None" wins, the candidates are barred from running that race again and a new election is to be held with new candidates.

Sadly, I can't find any politicians to champion my cause.

[Highlander]

That's goofy. That means that there would have to be a runoff if the leading candidate got 49%, and the other two got 25%/26%. There would be a clear winner, yet money would have to be spent to do it again. That scenario won't apply in this race, but it's still goofy.

That's exactly what happened to John Ossoff in 2017:

" Ossoff led with about 48.1% of the vote, Republican candidate Karen Handel received 19.8%, while the remainder of votes were scattered for 16 other candidates.[32][33] Because no candidate secured an absolute majority, the top two-vote-getters, Ossoff and Handel, competed in a runoff election on June 20, 2017.[34][33] Ossoff won all but 1% of the Democratic vote, while the Republican vote was more heavily split. Republicans collectively won 51.2% of the overall vote"

Ossoff would go on to lose the runoff to Karen Handel to 48.22% to 51.78%.

[OldPhiKap]

That's goofy. That means that there would have to be a runoff if the leading candidate got 49%, and the other two got 25%/26%. There would be a clear winner, yet money would have to be spent to do it again. That scenario won't apply in this race, but it's still goofy.

Yup. And if you believe Nate Silver, he currently projects:

Kemp (R): 49.7%
Abrams (D): 49.1%

Libertarian: 1.2%



I am a big proponent of folks having a third option. But here, all a vote for the Libertarian does is increase the odds of having to go back to the polls in a month (December 10) with another massive round of well-funded commercials. Can you imagine the money that will pour into Georgia if there is a runoff?!?

Ugh. I'm hoping my preferred candidate wins outright. Then, all we would have to go through is a recount.

[PackMan97]

Yup. And if you believe Nate Silver, he currently projects:

Kemp (R): 49.7%
Abrams (D): 49.1%

Libertarian: 1.2%



I am a big proponent of folks having a third option. But here, all a vote for the Libertarian does is increase the odds of having to go back to the polls in a month (December 10) with another massive round of well-funded commercials. Can you imagine the money that will pour into Georgia if there is a runoff?!?

Ugh. I'm hoping my preferred candidate wins outright. Then, all we would have to go through is a recount.

If everyone dreading a runoff would vote for the Libertarian, there wouldn't be a runoff!

[duke79]

I voted today in East Cobb. It took me 2 1/2 hours. Today was a day when more locations opened up. I thought it might go quicker, but i guess a lot of people thought the same thing.

In GA, we have to fill out a form that we need to fill out address and sign in two different places. We take it to a person at a computer who checks the form. Checks our ID, and then pulls us up on their laptop. Then the verify what ballot we should be getting, and swipe a voter card (to program it) and that is the card we insert into the Diebold electronic machine.

The process of having the form reviewed and generating the electronic card takes 2-3 minutes. This was the bottleneck. There were only 4 stations for this part of the process. There were about 10 voting machines, and there was a constant 3-4 open machines or more.

The process could be a lot more efficient.

And BTW, East Cobb is also a place the powers that be want maximum voting.

In my precinct, I imagine the voting process might take less than 15 minutes on election day

Jason, are you in the Buckhead/Brookhaven area?

This sounds crazy. No wonder people don't want to vote!

I'm the part-time clerk in the small town (386 registered voters) in Western Massachusetts where I currently live and I'm in charge of running the elections (my wife finds that to be a very scary thought!). Our voting procedure is as follows (on the "normal" election day and not the "early voting" days):

We hold the voting in the old town hall (dating back to the mid-1800's) in our town; voters come in and we have a wooden table set up for two poll sitters who have a computer-generated list of currently registered voters in the town. (We always have a bowl full of Hershey's Kisses, Reece's peanut butter cups and other similar candy, as a reward for the voters). We then check off the voter (usually they are known personally to us and, if not, they have to show a valid ID); we then hand them a paper ballot and they go to a partitioned-off section of the room where they have some privacy to vote. We provide them with sharpened pencils and some available reading glasses (if they need them); they vote and then come back out and we check them off again and they then hand their completed ballot to the "constable" who then inserts the ballot into a slot in a locked, wooden box with a crank handle (that dates back to 1881). The constable then cranks the handle and the ballot is pulled into the box. At the end of voting, we then open the box and count the ballots. It's like something out of a Norman Rockwell painting.

The whole process should not take more than 10 minutes or so for most voters.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yup. And if you believe Nate Silver, he currently projects:

Kemp (R): 49.7%
Abrams (D): 49.1%

Libertarian: 1.2%



I am a big proponent of folks having a third option. But here, all a vote for the Libertarian does is increase the odds of having to go back to the polls in a month (December 10) with another massive round of well-funded commercials. Can you imagine the money that will pour into Georgia if there is a runoff?!?

Ugh. I'm hoping my preferred candidate wins outright. Then, all we would have to go through is a recount.

So if you own a radio station, TV station, newspaper, web site, lawn sign maker, etc. in GA, it is likely in your best interest to vote libertarian as a runoff could be very lucrative. Also if you are a psychologist because the whole thing is driving everyone nuts.

[JasonEvans]

Also if you are a psychologist because the whole thing is driving everyone nuts.

Typical 3:30 minute commercial break right now in Atlanta.

Abrams campaign positive ad
some GOP superpac ad attacking Abrams
Random ad for Secy of State, congressional race, or Lt Governor
Kemp attack ad on Abrams
Kemp positive ad
some Dem superpac ad attacking Kemp
Buy a car from ______ dealership, the car dealer you can trust

If I did not already DVR every single thing I watch, I would swear off TV forever.