Midterm Elections 2018

[Acymetric]

Of course, most of those "young voters" are now "not as young voters," so the process will have to start all over again to re-engage the youth vote.

This falls in line with what I was getting at. Fair to say that enticing the youth vote (or new voters generally) has the highest cost of entry?

[Troublemaker]

The state races are extremely important to the national elections. The state houses set the electoral districts and the governor can have a big influence on voting requirement. Also the governors are the omes more in touch with local politics and they make themselves heard in setting the national agenda. Obama was very much criticized for his lack of interest in the state races and the Republicans used them to great effect. I believe the Dems strategy now has included a more aggressive focus on the state races.

Parties should also want to build as deep a pool of talent as possible. If one party controls most of the state legislatures and governorships, then over time, it'll become more difficult for the other party to find great candidates for Senate, House, and President. Candidates that have both experience governing at a lower level* and also experience running winning campaigns.

* Obviously, there's a notable outlier in the White House. But unless you have 40 years of name recognition as a celebrity in addition to natural charisma, you'll probably want to build that resume.

[Mike Corey]

1) Thanks to the mods for opening this thread.
2) I'll mostly stick to posting articles between now and November. But if anyone is interested in a nonpartisan analysis of Ohio, I'll gladly put one together.

[dudog84]

1) Thanks to the mods for opening this thread.
2) I'll mostly stick to posting articles between now and November. But if anyone is interested in a nonpartisan analysis of Ohio, I'll gladly put one together.

Sure, that's what the thread is for. Mostly.

[Mike Corey]

Ohio Overview

Governor
Two longtime electeds square off against one another for the second time in this race.

Current Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) is running against Rich Cordray, whose most recent job was as the first Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. DeWine won his current job by defeating incumbent Rich Cordray in 2010, in a wave election year for Republicans. DeWine has been an elected official in Ohio for something like 46 of the last 50 years, and one of the only jobs he hasn't held is governor. DeWine is on the Kasich side of the Republican aisle in Ohio, though unlike Kasich, he opposes Medicaid expansion. Cordray's a moderate as well, on the Democratic side of the aisle, and has been criticized by some progressives because of his past support from the NRA.

DeWine's roots run deep in Ohio, with an extraordinary fundraising apparatus and name recognition. Cordray's an intellectual heavyweight, having clerked for a Supreme Court justice, and is playing some catch-up: HE hasn't been on the ground in Ohio over the past six years due to his federal duties.

U.S. Senate
Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) faces a challenge from U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci (R). Senator Brown is up big in early polls, and Renacci--who is running as a Trump Republican--is relying on his personal wealth to fund an aggressive campaign highlighting the differences between one of the liberal lions of the Senate and himself. Sen. Brown's maintained a great deal of popularity amongst "crossover" voters, in large part due to Senator Brown's populist stance on trade. In other words, big chunks of Ohio that have been trending red in recent years are largely still supportive of Sen. Brown. Rep. Renacci will try to change that.

Congress
I'm running short on time, so I'll just mention two Congressional races that I don't need to research: The first is a special election, and you'll be reading about it as the vote approaches in August. Both are first-time Congressional candidates. For the Dems, the candidate is the current Franklin County Recorder, Danny O'Connor, a young lawyer who has been a public official for just over a year. For the Republicans, the candidate is Troy Balderson, a state senator. This seat has been red since 1982, when some guy named John Kasich won the seat for the first time. His successor, Pat Tiberi, resigned earlier this year to take an $800,000 a year job running a business alliance in Ohio. The polling shows this is a very tight race, though whomever wins in August we'll have to defend the seat again in November.

The other race of note pits longtime incumbent Steve Stivers (R), who chairs the NRCC, and a newcomer to politics, Rick Neal (D), a former international aid worker. Rep. Stivers is a moderate Republican, and he is expected to have a significant financial edge. The district is about +8 Republican, and in a wave election, this race could get interesting.

[dudog84]

Congress
I'm running short on time, so I'll just mention two Congressional races that I don't need to research: The first is a special election, and you'll be reading about it as the vote approaches in August. Both are first-time Congressional candidates. For the Dems, the candidate is the current Franklin County Recorder, Danny O'Connor, a young lawyer who has been a public official for just over a year. For the Republicans, the candidate is Troy Balderson, a state senator. This seat has been red since 1982, when some guy named John Kasich won the seat for the first time. His successor, Pat Tiberi, resigned earlier this year to take an $800,000 a year job running a business alliance in Ohio. The polling shows this is a very tight race, though whomever wins in August we'll have to defend the seat again in November.

That seems odd. What's the deal?

[-jk]

That seems odd. What's the deal?

Special election to fill a vacated seat. As I understand it, governors can appoint a senator to fill a term through the next general election (statewide elected official appointing a statewide official; seems reasonable), but not representatives. Special elections are held if there's more than a minimal bit of time before the next general election for reps.

-jk

[dudog84]

Special election to fill a vacated seat. As I understand it, governors can appoint a senator to fill a term through the next general election (statewide elected official appointing a statewide official; seems reasonable), but not representatives. Special elections are held if there's more than a minimal bit of time before the next general election for reps.

-jk

My thoughts were why 3 months before the November election. Elections are not cheap to put on. Seems like a waste of money (big surprise, government wastes money, stop the presses!).

Also, how much will Congress even be in session from August to November? Seems to me they all want to be campaigning during that time.

[dudog84]

Made myself curious. Congress will have 19 work days in those 3 months. And we know that on the doorstep of the midterm elections they will get absolutely NOTHING done. Nice work if you can get it.

[OldPhiKap]

Made myself curious. Congress will have 19 work days in those 3 months. And we know that on the doorstep of the midterm elections they will get absolutely NOTHING done. Nice work if you can get it.

I think the only potential major legislation in Congress before the midterms would come if the discharge petition in the House opens debate for an immigration bill, or whether Paul Ryan is pressured to put something on the table to address the issue. There are House members that want to go on the record voting for one or more various plans, even though the odds of getting a single plan through the House is nil.

I thought there was some pre-midterm financial deadline too that, Mitch McConnell fears, may be blocked by the President if it does not include significant financing for a southern border wall. Not remembering what bill that was though. (Not taking a position on the wall, obviously, just pointing out that McConnell and the President differ on its relative importance in the funding pecking order).

But agreed, Congress is essentially done for the year.

[-jk]

I think the only potential major legislation in Congress before the midterms would come if the discharge petition in the House opens debate for an immigration bill, or whether Paul Ryan is pressured to put something on the table to address the issue. There are House members that want to go on the record voting for one or more various plans, even though the odds of getting a single plan through the House is nil.

I thought there was some pre-midterm financial deadline too that, Mitch McConnell fears, may be blocked by the President if it does not include significant financing for a southern border wall. Not remembering what bill that was though. (Not taking a position on the wall, obviously, just pointing out that McConnell and the President differ on its relative importance in the funding pecking order).

But agreed, Congress is essentially done for the year.

And McConnell has hinted at staying in over what's usually the August recess...

-jk

[dudog84]

And McConnell has hinted at staying in over what's usually the August recess...

-jk

I would almost bet a pie (that's how certain I am) that will never happen.

[-jk]

I would almost bet a pie (that's how certain I am) that will never happen.

My family certainly hopes you're right! (SWMBO works for the Senate; we have a beach week and a nephew's wedding in August...)

-jk

[OldPhiKap]

My family certainly hopes you're right! (SWMBO works for the Senate; we have a beach week and a nephew's wedding in August...)

-jk

Lol, I had to look up the acronym. I’m old.

McConnell is probably happy to do it, because only a third of the Senate is up for re-election and most of them are Democrats. Happy to keep them out of their home states.

The House Republican leadership, on the other hand, would not follow suit. They know the bacon is on the grill back in many of their districts, and the majority is at risk.

[JasonEvans]

SWMBO works for the Senate

????

Single Woman, My Best Option
Sexy Wild Mate Beyond Ordinary
Someone Who Makes Best Orgasms (sorry if that is too PG-13)
Stop Worrying, My Buddy’s Opinion

????

[OldPhiKap]

????

Single Woman, My Best Option
Sexy Wild Mate Beyond Ordinary
Someone Who Makes Best Orgasms (sorry if that is too PG-13)
Stop Worrying, My Buddy’s Opinion

????

She Who Must Be Obeyed.

Although I do not know Mrs. -jk, so others may or may not apply.

[Reilly]

... SWMBO ...

Shifty White Man-child, Bounce Other-worldly ... in other words, Nick Horvath ...

[Troublemaker]

I thought -jk was being clever and getting around the no-PPB rules.

Slovenian Wife's Missing; Battered, Obviously

Southern Wall Makes Border Outrageous

Surely Was Muslim: Barack Obama

[lotusland]

Looking forward to some purple state travel this week. Palmetto State primary commercials consist of Republican candidates arguing over who is most conservative and best supports the Trump agenda. I’d like to see a candidate crowing about how moderate they are just to break up the monotony.

[Troublemaker]

Looking forward to some purple state travel this week. Palmetto State primary commercials consist of Republican candidates arguing over who is most conservative and best supports the Trump agenda. I’d like to see a candidate crowing about how moderate they are just to break up the monotony.

Succeeder Will Moderate Before October