View Poll Results: What will be the result of the Midterms (vote twice!!)

Voters
48. You may not vote on this poll
  • GOP holds the House

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by less than 12 seats

    20 41.67%
  • Dems win the House by 12-25 seats

    12 25.00%
  • Dems win the House by 25-38 seats

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by 38+ seats

    1 2.08%
  • GOP gains 1 or more seats in the Senate (52-48 or more)

    29 60.42%
  • GOP holds the same number of seats in the Senate (51-49)

    7 14.58%
  • GOP loses seats but still holds the Senate (50-50 with Pence breaking tie)

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the Senate (49-51 or more)

    2 4.17%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1061
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Wow... I just heard the results of a new CNN poll on the midterms that is really surprising. For several days we have been hearing that the GOP base was getting fired up about Kavanaugh and that Republicans were closing the gap in the polls. The CNN poll, which was largely done in the wake of Kav's confirmation being a sure-thing (with Collins' Friday announcement) finds that not only has the GOP not made up ground, they have actually fallen even further behind.


    Code:
    CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
    Likely Voters’ Choice for Congress
                   Democrat    Republican
    
    Now              54%          41% 
    September        52%          42%
    A few other interesting numbers:
    Women are now going for Democrats by a whopping 63-33 margin. Ouch! The GOP still wins men by 50-45%. Also, that enthusiasm gap that was supposed to be closed by the GOP... CNN finds that the percentage of voters who say they are extremely/very enthusiastic about the election is 62% of Dems and 52% of Republicans. In September is was 56% of Dems and 50% of Republicans, so the enthusiasm gap has actually widened.

    Important caveat... one poll can be an outlier. Obviously, we would need to see a lot more data to know whether these numbers are anywhere close to accurate. That said, 538 gives the CNN/SSRS poll an A- rating, so it is fairly solid. They find it has a small lean of about 1 point toward the Dems (by comparison, Quinnipiac has a 2 point Dem lean while YouGov and Rasmussen each have 2 point GOP leans).

    -Jason "one last item -- only 17% of the country approves of the job congress is doing... and yet the vast majority of congress will be re-elected this fall... sigh" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #1062
    Nate Silver with some analysis on why Dems polling in the Senate have deteriorated: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...g-senate-odds/

    My take away: polling has reflected a sorting out of red/blue. Dems fighting to hold seats in solid red states have seen their poll numbers go down, with Heidi Heitkamp having suffered the most precipitous drop. Nate notes that polling in ND is sparse, so we do not know if there really has been a drop due to Kavanaugh or if the additional polls simply give a better picture of where Heitkamp stands.
    Carolina delenda est

  3. #1063
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    The Ds need to flip 24 seats. 25 R seats are in districts won by Hillary. Look at the special election results of the past year.

    No...way.
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The post I was responding to was how Clinton could win a state but so many GOPers could win House seats in those states. And I think gerrymandering is a part of that, as is possibly the fact that representation doesn't necessarily correspond to population base (see the national vote vs state votes). Same is true at a local level, where there are more counties with small populations than counties with big populations, and metro areas (with higher populations) tend to vote differently than rural areas.
    While you were not responding to me, your misunderstanding stems from my original post. Hillary won these districts, not states.

    In this instance, gerrymandering is not the issue. I have not researched these 25 districts, but I imagine incumbency has a lot to do with it.

  4. #1064
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    While you were not responding to me, your misunderstanding stems from my original post. Hillary won these districts, not states.

    In this instance, gerrymandering is not the issue. I have not researched these 25 districts, but I imagine incumbency has a lot to do with it.
    Incumbency, and the fact that some folks like split government or do not vote a party slate.

    I will vote for different parties, for example, in my gubernatorial and my congressional House races this year.

  5. #1065

    Recent NPR Polls

    NPR October polls show a stark difference with the CNN poll cited earlier. The midterm is "very important"

    Overall 82 (D) to 80 (R)

    Women:

    83 (R) vs 79 (D)

  6. #1066
    Quote Originally Posted by littlejohn View Post
    NPR October polls show a stark difference with the CNN poll cited earlier. The midterm is "very important"

    Overall 82 (D) to 80 (R)

    Women:

    83 (R) vs 79 (D)
    Very interesting. What are the differences?
    Carolina delenda est

  7. #1067
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    If the polls are to be believed, you can pretty much stick a fork in the senate, it is a done deal for a GOP hold.

    The last couple polls from Nevada, which seemed like the best spot for a Dem pickup, both shown GOP incumbent Dean Heller with a small lead. Marist has him up 45-43 and the NY Times gives him a lead of 47-45. Worth noting in the Times poll, among registered voters the challenger D-Jacky Rosen has a 46-41 lead. So, if the Dems do bother to turn out, Rosen can still win.

    But, more significantly, it looks like Tennessee is out of reach. A few weeks ago there were a flurry of polls that showed D-Phil Breesden had pulled very slightly ahead of R-Marsha Blackburn, even though Tennessee is one of the most GOP-friendly states in the country (538 says it has a state-wide GOP lean of +28). Since then, Breesden has done everything he could to appeal to disenchanted Republicans, including endorsing Brett Kavanaugh. Well, it has not helped. The new NYT poll has him down...wait for it... 18 points!! The Times sees the race as Blackburn 57, Breesden 39. Ouch!

    -Jason "meanwhile, Reuters/IPSOS has a new poll that shows very similar numbers to CNN on the generic ballot. Like CNN, IPSOS says the Dems have a 13 point lead on the generic House ballot" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #1068
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Michael Bloomberg re-registered as a Democrat yesterday. Hmmm . . . .

    (NYC is pretty party-fluid that way)

  9. #1069
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Since then, Breesden has done everything he could to appeal to disenchanted Republicans, including endorsing Brett Kavanaugh. Well, it has not helped.
    Tactically, that just seems dumb to me. That's trying to appeal to the wrong crowd and pisses off the people who represent your base.

  10. #1070
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Tactically, that just seems dumb to me. That's trying to appeal to the wrong crowd and pisses off the people who represent your base.
    Trying to run the middle can't work when you base is running away from the middle.

    I think the theory is, you may not like my moderate stance but what are you going to do? One of us is going to win and do you really want it to be that other guy.

  11. #1071
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    But, more significantly, it looks like Tennessee is out of reach. A few weeks ago there were a flurry of polls that showed D-Phil Breesden had pulled very slightly ahead of R-Marsha Blackburn, even though Tennessee is one of the most GOP-friendly states in the country (538 says it has a state-wide GOP lean of +28). Since then, Breesden has done everything he could to appeal to disenchanted Republicans, including endorsing Brett Kavanaugh. Well, it has not helped. The new NYT poll has him down...wait for it... 18 points!! The Times sees the race as Blackburn 57, Breesden 39. Ouch!
    Wow, do people really hate Taylor Swift that much?

  12. #1072
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    I was polled via telephone on Saturday for the GA governor's race by Public Policy Polling.

    I wonder if the results will be made public, or if it was conducted for one of the campaigns internal use.
    The poll you took part in was just released. It finds a dead heat in the Ga governor's race with Kemp and Abrams tied at 46%.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #1073
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I think the theory is, you may not like my moderate stance but what are you going to do? One of us is going to win and do you really want it to be that other guy.
    That is a theory that can work, but if your base feels that you won't represent them if you are elected then they may not care if you or the other guy wins. There are some voters who consider Kavanaugh and the #MeToo movement to be the most important thing to them. When Breesden essentially said to them, "you will not get what you want regardless of who you vote for," then I could certainly see those folks feeling it is not worth their time to back Breesden.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  14. #1074
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Hurricane Michael has turned into a monster. The panhandle is going to get walloped. My thoughts are with the people affected in Florida and beyond (it's going to be that bad).

    Why is this in the midterms thread? I wonder how it might affect the Senate race. Scott (currently R governor) will get to direct relief efforts, but he is well-known down here for pooh-poohing climate change and directing the Florida Department of Environmental Protection to never even speak the term.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/sta...e12983720.html

    Whether you believe in climate change or not, people believe these storms are getting worse. Maybe they're not and it's recency bias. But regardless of what the research shows, people only care about what's happening to them now.

    Could it also affect the governor's race? Gillum is currently the D mayor of Tallahassee, which is going to get hit with Category 2 winds, maybe Category 3. While there's profile opportunities in helping your constituents, it also takes time away from campaigning. And his opponent is also on the record against climate change. DeSantis was also slammed recently by the Tampa paper for not having plans for running the state. People down here b*#&h about traffic and taxes (we're really not that much different from everybody else...really), but a hurricane brings everything into focus. I was talking to somebody in Miami this morning and they mentioned Andrew. That was 1992, people don't forget.

  15. #1075
    ^ great points. I wonder about Georgia as well. The folks in central Georgia...mostly Albany, Macon, Valdosta, Augusta are going to get hard and I don't think they are really going to have expected it. Think Fran for Raleigh, or Hugo for Charlotte. These fast moving storms can carry a lot of wind strength inland.

  16. #1076
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Three days ago Michael was a tropical depression. Today it makes landfall as a borderline Category 5. Sustained winds of 155 mph. The things I want to say about this storm would get wankerized by the board.

  17. #1077
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post

    Whether you believe in climate change or not, people believe these storms are getting worse. Maybe they're not and it's recency bias. But regardless of what the research shows, people only care about what's happening to them now.
    It's probably the case that storms are slowly getting worse (higher winds and more rainfall) but not more frequent as a result of anthropogenic climate change, regardless of anyone's political beliefs.

    While it'd be nice to think that people are suddenly going to view atmospheric science as non-partisan, the more likely and sadder possible effect is if the hurricane is sufficiently damaging that people have things other than voting to worry about in four weeks. That would take place in the red part of Florida but have a heavier affect on low income voters, so I'm not sure if the net effect would be in favor of Democrats or Republicans.

  18. #1078
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    It's probably the case that storms are slowly getting worse (higher winds and more rainfall) but not more frequent as a result of anthropogenic climate change, regardless of anyone's political beliefs.
    The argument could be made that monitoring and instrumentation is getting better.

    For example, one of the worst hurricanes in history was the 1938 hurricane (measured gusts of 180) which was rated a Cat 3. Another in 1935 was rated a Cat 5 (sustained winds of 185 mph). Which do you think we have better more accurate metrics on...Hurricane Michael , the 1935 hurricane or the 1938 hurricane? I was watching The Weather Channel's coverage earlier and all the anemometer's along Michael's path were knocked out just before landfall. If we can't get accurate wind speeds with today's modern materials and equipment, what makes us think we could 80 years ago?

    I'm not arguing for or against anything, only that I don't trust weather reporting from 80 years ago Now, do I feel like the measurements from Hugo or Andrew were accurate? I sure do...but then we run into the problem of a very small sample size.

  19. #1079
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    It's probably the case that storms are slowly getting worse (higher winds and more rainfall) but not more frequent as a result of anthropogenic climate change, regardless of anyone's political beliefs.

    While it'd be nice to think that people are suddenly going to view atmospheric science as non-partisan, the more likely and sadder possible effect is if the hurricane is sufficiently damaging that people have things other than voting to worry about in four weeks. That would take place in the red part of Florida but have a heavier affect on low income voters, so I'm not sure if the net effect would be in favor of Democrats or Republicans.
    The panhandle is not just red, it's VERY red. Remember 2000, when many called Florida for Gore, but western Florida polls hadn't closed yet (different time zone).

  20. #1080
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    The panhandle is not just red, it's VERY red. Remember 2000, when many called Florida for Gore, but western Florida polls hadn't closed yet (different time zone).
    As Joe Scarborough (former congressman from Pensicola and Crimson Tide alum) correctly points out -- the Panhandle is basically southern Alabama.

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