Wow... I just heard the results of a new CNN poll on the midterms that is really surprising. For several days we have been hearing that the GOP base was getting fired up about Kavanaugh and that Republicans were closing the gap in the polls. The CNN poll, which was largely done in the wake of Kav's confirmation being a sure-thing (with Collins' Friday announcement) finds that not only has the GOP not made up ground, they have actually fallen even further behind.
Code:
CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
Likely Voters’ Choice for Congress
Democrat Republican
Now 54% 41%
September 52% 42%
A few other interesting numbers:
Women are now going for Democrats by a whopping 63-33 margin. Ouch! The GOP still wins men by 50-45%. Also, that enthusiasm gap that was supposed to be closed by the GOP... CNN finds that the percentage of voters who say they are extremely/very enthusiastic about the election is 62% of Dems and 52% of Republicans. In September is was 56% of Dems and 50% of Republicans, so the enthusiasm gap has actually widened.
Important caveat... one poll can be an outlier. Obviously, we would need to see a lot more data to know whether these numbers are anywhere close to accurate. That said, 538 gives the CNN/SSRS poll an A- rating, so it is fairly solid. They find it has a small lean of about 1 point toward the Dems (by comparison, Quinnipiac has a 2 point Dem lean while YouGov and Rasmussen each have 2 point GOP leans).
-Jason "one last item -- only 17% of the country approves of the job congress is doing... and yet the vast majority of congress will be re-elected this fall... sigh" Evans