View Poll Results: What will be the result of the Midterms (vote twice!!)

Voters
48. You may not vote on this poll
  • GOP holds the House

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by less than 12 seats

    20 41.67%
  • Dems win the House by 12-25 seats

    12 25.00%
  • Dems win the House by 25-38 seats

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by 38+ seats

    1 2.08%
  • GOP gains 1 or more seats in the Senate (52-48 or more)

    29 60.42%
  • GOP holds the same number of seats in the Senate (51-49)

    7 14.58%
  • GOP loses seats but still holds the Senate (50-50 with Pence breaking tie)

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the Senate (49-51 or more)

    2 4.17%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1001
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Particularly when anti-corruption is one of the unifying national messages the party is trying to send in this campaign.
    Precisely. It invites the what-a-boutism that has become a staple of so many alleged to have engaged in similarly corrupt behavior.

  2. #1002
    Two more NJ Senate polls out yesterday... Fairleigh Dickinson has Menendez up 6 and Quinnipiac has him up by 11. So maybe the race isn't all that close?

  3. #1003
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Two more NJ Senate polls out yesterday... Fairleigh Dickinson has Menendez up 6 and Quinnipiac has him up by 11. So maybe the race isn't all that close?
    538 also put up a piece on the race yesterday, citing some of the same polls. Menendez has a decent lead, but far from enough to stop actively campaigning.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...y-senate-seat/

    As someone accurately noted above, the Trump effect is really hurting Hugin. Hugin is quite moderate (particularly on social issues) but NJ voters are skeptical about whether once elected, he will be a party-line Trump voter. He was a Trump delegate at the convention and donated significant amounts to his campaign, which Menendez is going to focus on. In order to swing more registered Democrats his way (which is the only way he can win - there are almost a million more registered Dems than Republicans), he has to make them 100% comfortable. Six years ago, with the same fact pattern but a completely different national political environment, Hugin would be winning in a landslide. But much as Trump's statement is correct that he would still keep a lot of votes even if he went out on 5th Ave and shot someone, the same likely holds true for a Democrat in NJ.

  4. #1004
    From an NPR / PBS / Marist poll, perhaps the "enthusiasm gap" has closed somewhat.

    Now, 80% of Rs say the midterms are very important, compared to 82% of Ds.

    Whereas in July, the numbers were 78% D to 68% R.



  5. #1005
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    But much as Trump's statement is correct that he would still keep a lot of votes even if he went out on 5th Ave and shot someone, the same likely holds true for a Democrat in NJ.
    They do it in Hoboken. Keep it local.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  6. #1006
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    From an NPR / PBS / Marist poll, perhaps the "enthusiasm gap" has closed somewhat.

    Now, 80% of Rs say the midterms are very important, compared to 82% of Ds.

    Whereas in July, the numbers were 78% D to 68% R.
    I believe that this is the Kavanaugh effect. It has galvanized GOPers who feel passionately about the Supreme Court. It will be interesting to see what the resolution of Kav (which will be this weekend, I am fairly confident) does to enthusiasm on both sides.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  7. #1007
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I believe that this is the Kavanaugh effect. It has galvanized GOPers who feel passionately about the Supreme Court. It will be interesting to see what the resolution of Kav (which will be this weekend, I am fairly confident) does to enthusiasm on both sides.
    I think that if Kav is given the job, the progressives will gain enthusiasm and if Kav does not get the job, conservatives will gain enthusiasm. In the next month before the election, I'd be willing to bet that the person occupying the white house will do something that will energize the progressives no matter what the outcome on Kav.

  8. #1008
    IBD / TIPP poll shows the Ds' "generic ballot" advantage to now be D+2. In the same poll last month, it was D+11.

  9. #1009
    Quote Originally Posted by elvis14 View Post
    I think that if Kav is given the job, the progressives will gain enthusiasm and if Kav does not get the job, conservatives will gain enthusiasm. In the next month before the election, I'd be willing to bet that the person occupying the white house will do something that will energize the progressives no matter what the outcome on Kav.
    The only problem I see with this, especially in NC...is that I believe the "enthusiasm meter" is already pegged for the left. Turning up their enthusiasm is likely only to hurt their cause as they can seem less rational due to the high emotional excitement.

    I would also argue that "winning" the nomination battle will give the right an enthusiasm boost. Everyone loves a winner.

  10. #1010
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Yeah, wonder if the Ds are thinking they should have just let it go through if it was going to go through anyway.

    Those 'California Girls' (Feinstein, Pelosi) have the Ds in a fix. That could be a fun turn for Weird Al.

  11. #1011
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    538 also put up a piece on the race yesterday, citing some of the same polls. Menendez has a decent lead, but far from enough to stop actively campaigning.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...y-senate-seat/

    As someone accurately noted above, the Trump effect is really hurting Hugin. Hugin is quite moderate (particularly on social issues) but NJ voters are skeptical about whether once elected, he will be a party-line Trump voter. He was a Trump delegate at the convention and donated significant amounts to his campaign, which Menendez is going to focus on. In order to swing more registered Democrats his way (which is the only way he can win - there are almost a million more registered Dems than Republicans), he has to make them 100% comfortable. Six years ago, with the same fact pattern but a completely different national political environment, Hugin would be winning in a landslide. But much as Trump's statement is correct that he would still keep a lot of votes even if he went out on 5th Ave and shot someone, the same likely holds true for a Democrat in NJ.
    As a NJ voter, I resemble your remark. I was just having the exact conversation with some openly liberal friends this past weekend. Menendez is a crook (allegedly) and not someone we'd usually vote for under the circumstances, and Hugin on paper is quite attractive to many NJ voters (left leaning on social issues, conservative on others), but keeping Congress as blue as possible this election is a singular goal for many people, unfortunately. People feel they have to vote for a party, not a candidate, these days.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  12. #1012
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Per article this morning, Georgia has experienced an all-time record number of voters registered for the midterm.

    I don't know what everyone is gonna say, but lots of folks are gonna say it. Hard to see how that bodes well for incumbents generally.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  13. #1013
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Per article this morning, Georgia has experienced an all-time record number of voters registered for the midterm.

    I don't know what everyone is gonna say, but lots of folks are gonna say it. Hard to see how that bodes well for incumbents generally.
    Hopefully it bodes well for America in general if people are paying attention and eager to vote (performing a civic duty, as some would say).

    Every election matters. An interesting hypothetical. If drunk-on-power (among other things) Steve Bannon hadn't pushed through Roy Moore in Alabama's special election primary, costing the Rs what theoretically should be a safe Senate seat, how differently would the past month have played out? If the Rs had just an extra bit of cushion -- just one seat's worth -- I think it could've impacted several decisions on both sides over the past month.

  14. #1014
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Every election matters. An interesting hypothetical. If drunk-on-power (among other things) Steve Bannon hadn't pushed through Roy Moore in Alabama's special election primary, costing the Rs what theoretically should be a safe Senate seat, how differently would the past month have played out? If the Rs had just an extra bit of cushion -- just one seat's worth -- I think it could've impacted several decisions on both sides over the past month.
    104o8h.jpg

    (Actually I am sure you are 100% correct in regards to the Alabama seat.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  15. #1015
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Hopefully it bodes well for America in general if people are paying attention and eager to vote (performing a civic duty, as some would say).

    Every election matters. An interesting hypothetical. If drunk-on-power (among other things) Steve Bannon hadn't pushed through Roy Moore in Alabama's special election primary, costing the Rs what theoretically should be a safe Senate seat, how differently would the past month have played out? If the Rs had just an extra bit of cushion -- just one seat's worth -- I think it could've impacted several decisions on both sides over the past month.
    Yup, although I think it also has something to do with the candidate in question. Gorsuch had the votes of three Democrats (Heitkamp, Manchin and Donnelly) -- two of which have flipped for this candidate with one still undecided.

    Collins announces her ultimate vote at three pm; Flake and Manchin will likely follow what she does.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  16. #1016
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    "Six Midterms to Watch:"

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/six-showd...014348687.html


    I found this candidate description for a Kansas House race interesting:


    Sharice Davids, a gay Native American mixed martial arts fighter, is challenging Republican congressman Kevin Yoder for his District 3 seat.

    We have become a much more open society in the last ten years, let alone twenty.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  17. #1017
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Yup, although I think it also has something to do with the candidate in question. Gorsuch had the votes of three Democrats (Heitkamp, Manchin and Donnelly) -- two of which have flipped for this candidate with one still undecided.
    I dunno. It may go hand-in-hand with my point. For Gorsuch's confirmation, Luther Strange of Alabama (months before he would lose to Roy Moore) was a "yea" vote giving the Rs a bigger cushion, which allowed those red-state Ds to vote in their best interests (after getting approval from D leadership behind the scenes, probably).

  18. #1018
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Brett Kavanaugh is now assured an ascendance to the Supreme Court, as Susan Collins (R) and Joe Manchin (D) have signaled their intention to vote in his favor.

    Voting starts in most of the country next week. I suspect America will respond in kind.

  19. #1019
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Brett Kavanaugh is now assured an ascendance to the Supreme Court, as Susan Collins (R) and Joe Manchin (D) have signaled their intention to vote in his favor.

    Voting starts in most of the country next week. I suspect America will respond in kind.
    I know some have argued that the Kavanaugh hearings tightened the enthusiasm gap, but given that more Americans believe Blasey than Kavenaugh I think this will ultimately hurt the GOP.

  20. #1020
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Brett Kavanaugh is now assured an ascendance to the Supreme Court, as Susan Collins (R) and Joe Manchin (D) have signaled their intention to vote in his favor.
    Oh, let's give it a day. With all the craziness that's gone on in the past month, I can't rule out that something will pop up between now and the confirmation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Voting starts in most of the country next week. I suspect America will respond in kind.
    Do you do pie bets, Mr. Corey? I'll bet that despite Kavanaugh's likely confirmation, America will not "respond in kind" enough to prevent the Rs from picking up at least one Senate seat to make it 52+ seats for the Rs.

    If you would prefer to bet on the House, I'll create a wager there.

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