Midterm Elections 2018

[Indoor66]

You might be right, but I think the wild card is Mark Judge. It seems to me there must be some reason he hasn't been in the spotlight yet – most likely the Rs just thought he'd be a lousy witness, but maybe it's something more. Obviously, plenty of Rs are going to be safe no matter what in the midterms, but if something damning does come from Judge or someone close to him, it could push the close seats a little toward the D side.

His letter said he was a recovering alcoholic and suffered from depression; that he did not do public speaking. That sounds like a reason to avoid the spotlight.

[weezie]

His letter said he was a recovering alcoholic and suffered from depression; that he did not do public speaking. That sounds like a reason to avoid the spotlight.

Also some discussion of having recently come through cancer?

[Troublemaker]

Unless the FBI report turns up corroborating evidence, this is actually good news for the Republicans. Rushing to a vote without this had terrible optics. Flake may have saved the Republicans from themselves here.

That, of course, assumes that he comes up as clean as he says he is.

Disagree. First, the Ds will just say that the investigation should be comprehensive, cover all accusers (not just Ford), and have no artificial limit. So the Rs don't even get much if any credit for submitting to an FBI investigation. No midterm boost. Second, if the Rs really had gotten themselves into more midterm trouble and needed to be "saved" just because they supported Kavanaugh amid allegations with no corroboration, then the Rs were done as a party anyway.

Finally, the Rs haven't had the current combination of united + energized in a long time. When I say united, I mean that donors and conservative media and NeverTrump elites and Trump working class all want to see Kavanaugh confirmed, and they're pretty much all angry about (from their perspective) his mistreatment. I haven't seen anything like this, and it's a combination that can blunt the blue wave that had been expected for the midterms. Flake couldn't read the moment and choked under protest pressure (apparently), deflating the momentum a bit. From a political perspective (and maybe others) heading into the midterms, Jeff Flake is a monumentally stupid person.

[CameronBornAndBred]

From a reporter from The Atlantic:


Elaina Plott‏Verified account @elainaplott 12h12 hours ago
Interesting: A source close to Senator Manchin tells me now, "Short of claims that definitively prove Dr. Ford's allegations or a realization that Kavanaugh will gut the healthcare law, Manchin will side with the overwhelming number of people in WV who want Kavanaugh confirmed."

Like it or not, this is exactly what he should do. It seems that people often forget that those in congress are not our leaders doing what they feel is in our personal interest, but our representatives, sent to Washington to enact our will. It seems that those in congress often forget that as well.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Disagree. First, the Ds will just say that the investigation should be comprehensive, cover all accusers (not just Ford), and have no artificial limit. So the Rs don't even get much if any credit for submitting to an FBI investigation. No midterm boost. Second, if the Rs really had gotten themselves into more midterm trouble and needed to be "saved" just because they supported Kavanaugh amid allegations with no corroboration, then the Rs were done as a party anyway.

Finally, the Rs haven't had the current combination of united + energized in a long time. When I say united, I mean that donors and conservative media and NeverTrump elites and Trump working class all want to see Kavanaugh confirmed, and they're pretty much all angry about (from their perspective) his mistreatment. I haven't seen anything like this, and it's a combination that can blunt the blue wave that had been expected for the midterms. Flake couldn't read the moment and choked under protest pressure (apparently), deflating the momentum a bit. From a political perspective (and maybe others) heading into the midterms, Jeff Flake is a monumentally stupid person.

I completely disagree. And in reference to Jason's wise post above, it is blatantly obvious from your post which party you support. I cannot state the reasons for my disagreement without making my affiliation obvious so I will leave it at that.

Being the well trained Duke public policy major that I am, I tried to do a decision tree of potential outcomes and the implications of those outcomes. I think it is pretty neutral but I could see why others think it is not so I will take the high road and not post.

I think it is very difficult to discuss Kavanaugh and even the implications of Kavanaugh without sounding partisan. Perhaps there are others who can do it, but Troublemaker did not and I find myself unable to. So it might be best to try to steer clear.

[dudog84]

Folks, can we please have no more discussion of Kavanaugh. That's more a statement than a question. There's virtually no way for it to not go off the rails, it already has several times. I have been guilty myself, despite my efforts to stay focused and keep it relevant and non-partisan.

I want this thread to stay open. I want insight on races in other states from those residents. I hope I've done a little to let you know what's going on in Florida.

Please, let's have no more mention of Kavanaugh. It's been beat to death, we'll eventually see what happens. And possibly in November we will see how it affected the vote. Possibly, I'm sure the pundits will have an opinion.

[OldPhiKap]

Game day, gotta beat VT. I’ve declared a politics-free Saturday in the OPK household.

LGD!!!!!!!

[Troublemaker]

I completely disagree. And in reference to Jason's wise post above, it is blatantly obvious from your post which party you support. I cannot state the reasons for my disagreement without making my affiliation obvious so I will leave it at that.

Being the well trained Duke public policy major that I am, I tried to do a decision tree of potential outcomes and the implications of those outcomes. I think it is pretty neutral but I could see why others think it is not so I will take the high road and not post.

I think it is very difficult to discuss Kavanaugh and even the implications of Kavanaugh without sounding partisan. Perhaps there are others who can do it, but Troublemaker did not and I find myself unable to. So it might be best to try to steer clear.

Disagree. There was nothing wrong with my post. It was focused on the midterms, and it is also a political analysis that is held by a huge swath of the country. (It may turn out to be wrong, but that's another matter.) If only "Rs are looking bad" / "Rs are misplaying this" posts are allowed, might as well not have this thread.

[Troublemaker]

Let me add that I would be fine with a total and complete shutdown of Kavanaugh talk. That would be better than if only certain types of Kavanaugh analysis are allowed and not others held by a huge swath of the country. (Not saying this is what's happened up until now, as Jason as done a wonderful job.)

Also, CrazyNotCrazie, it's basically impossible to hide one's politics over time. If there are, say, 20 frequent posters in this thread, I believe I would have good guesses at which of them vote R and which of them vote D. I believe I would hit on at least 18 out of 20 (90%). You seem to imply that you wouldn't be able to do the same. Try it out. I bet you you could.

[JasonEvans]

Yeah, let's just shut down the Kav talk. We have said pretty much everything that can be said about how it might or might not impact the midterms and, frankly, none of us really know the answer to that anyway (I've read that him getting confirmed/dumped will help/hurt Dem/GOP turnover a million times from a million different angles at this point).

When all is said and done in a week to ten days, if there is some more scholarly take or perhaps a poll that shows something really meaningful about how this entire affair is changing voters minds, then we can talk about that. But the daily ebb and flow of the nomination process and the investigation aren't within the bounds of what we are doing here.

Plus, I have handed out like a dozen infractions on this in the past week or so and I don't feel like popping the same people again.

So, unless you hear me (or some other mod) say it is ok, you should hereby assume that any talk about Kavanaugh is hereby off limits.

-Jason "an new WV poll finds Manchin and Morrisey tied... and a new Montana poll finds Tester up by 8... maybe Manchin is more in danger than folks think" Evans

[BandAlum83]

I completely disagree. And in reference to Jason's wise post above, it is blatantly obvious from your post which party you support. I cannot state the reasons for my disagreement without making my affiliation obvious so I will leave it at that.

Being the well trained Duke public policy major that I am, I tried to do a decision tree of potential outcomes and the implications of those outcomes. I think it is pretty neutral but I could see why others think it is not so I will take the high road and not post.

I think it is very difficult to discuss Kavanaugh and even the implications of Kavanaugh without sounding partisan. Perhaps there are others who can do it, but Troublemaker did not and I find myself unable to. So it might be best to try to steer clear.

I will say this. If you watched what happened before yesterday's vote, you were treated to some real life, real time political drama the likes of which we don't often get to witness.


ETA: Sorry Jason, I just saw your last post after I commented. I don't think there was anything at all partisan in my comment. Indeed, wherever you fall on the political spectrum, it was pretty darn dramatic. That being said, please delete my post if you feel appropriate to do so.

[JasonEvans]

Bad news for the Dems in Missouri. A brand new poll finds Claire McKaskill down 2 points, 48-46 to Josh Hawley.

It is clear from the splits where McKaskill's problem lies... she is only winning women by 1 point 47-46. Nationally, Dems tend to win women by close to 10 points.

[weezie]

Everybody is an expert on women until they aren't.

[OldPhiKap]

Everybody is an expert on women until they aren't.

I told SonPK upon entering high school that I didn’t understand women when I was fourteen, and that I still don’t now that I am in my fifties.

That did not seem to cheer him up, but he might as well learn some hard truths early.

[Mike Corey]

Like it or not, this is exactly what he should do. It seems that people often forget that those in congress are not our leaders doing what they feel is in our personal interest, but our representatives, sent to Washington to enact our will. It seems that those in congress often forget that as well.

This is incorrect. The role of an elected official is--mercifully--not to do what a plurality wants all the time on every issue.

[CameronBornAndBred]

This is incorrect. The role of an elected official is--mercifully--not to do what a plurality wants all the time on every issue.

I think that is exactly what their role is. They are called representatives for a reason. Of course there will never be anyone that actually does it, and there won't be until we install robots as our representatives that submit to the will of their constituents through voting apps on our smart phones. Side effect, lobbyists will be both stumped and bored with nothing to do as they give up trying to sway the opinion of a computer.

Mr. Roboto for Senate!

(Of course there are all sorts of holes in my scenario, so don't spend hours filling them all.)

[sagegrouse]

Like it or not, this is exactly what he should do. It seems that people often forget that those in congress are not our leaders doing what they feel is in our personal interest, but our representatives, sent to Washington to enact our will. It seems that those in congress often forget that as well.

This is incorrect. The role of an elected official is--mercifully--not to do what a plurality wants all the time on every issue.

CBB does not adhere to the Edmund Burke position, whereas Mike Corey may well do so.

From Wiki:

Theorists such as Edmund Burke believe that part of the duty of a representative was not simply to communicate the wishes of the electorate but also to use their own judgement in the exercise of their powers, even if their views are not reflective of those of a majority of voters

"...it ought to be the happiness and glory of a representative to live in the strictest union, the closest correspondence, and the most unreserved communication with his constituents. Their wishes ought to have great weight with him; their opinion, high respect; their business, unremitted attention. It is his duty to sacrifice his repose, his pleasures, his satisfactions, to theirs; and above all, ever, and in all cases, to prefer their interest to his own. But his unbiassed opinion, his mature judgment, his enlightened conscience, he ought not to sacrifice to you, to any man, or to any set of men living. These he does not derive from your pleasure; no, nor from the law and the constitution. They are a trust from Providence, for the abuse of which he is deeply answerable. Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."

[Mike Corey]

I think that is exactly what their role is. They are called representatives for a reason. Of course there will never be anyone that actually does it, and there won't be until we install robots as our representatives that submit to the will of their constituents through voting apps on our smart phones. Side effect, lobbyists will be both stumped and bored with nothing to do as they give up trying to sway the opinion of a computer.

Mr. Roboto for Senate!

(Of course there are all sorts of holes in my scenario, so don't spend hours filling them all.)

But it's not. Because majority rule and minority rights.

This is a fundamental element of our representative democracy.

What a majority wants cannot be considered without minority rights. A representative's job is to weigh these things and make decisions accordingly.

[Devilwin]

Everybody is an expert on women until they aren't.

Very true..My friend and I had the pleasure of taking our wives and 8 of their friends to Fire and Sticks Japanese Restaurant Saturday. At one point, the girls had 5 different conversations going on at once. Seemed impossible to believe, but every girl at the table seemed to know everything about all five subjects. No way us guys could do that, lol!

[YmoBeThere]

I would think this morning's news regarding a potential trade deal between the U.S. Mexico and now Canada will be pointed at by some to maintain the current agenda.