Midterm Elections 2018

[Udaman]

Hey mods! Is it possible to start a thread on the November Midterms? I thought the Presidential Thread 2 years ago was really good. And most people stuck to the rules of staying non-partisan (ie no calling one side a bunch of names or speaking derogatory about anyone’s politics views).

Just thought I would see if this could fly. Going to be a pretty incredible 5 months for sure.

[Indoor66]

How about a poll on how many posts it takes to get the thread closed?

[tteettimes]

How about a poll on how many posts it takes to get the thread closed?

Or how many get banned 😫😫

[OldPhiKap]

I think it’s a great idea, because our geographic spread will give me some insight into races about which I know very little.

But I don’t have to moderate the thread, and can appreciate why the mod team might not want to either.

[dudog84]

I don't know, my evaluations/guesses 2 years ago were even worse than my NCAA picks over the last 3 years. Don't know if I can take the humbling.

So I may sit it out ("may" because I'm a brute for punishment). But I would certainly enjoy reading other people's takes. I think our crowd and the mods did a great job 2 years ago.

Though I understand things may be rawer now.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think it’s a great idea, because our geographic spread will give me some insight into races about which I know very little.

But I don’t have to moderate the thread, and can appreciate why the mod team might not want to either.

I echo that! I enjoy following other races, especially learning about ones that I don't know much about. I thought we did pretty well with the presidential race thread, and would like a mid-term one as well.

[rthomas]

So I will start and we can see what happens.

I live in WV and, although highly unusual, it has become a battleground state for the midterms for control of the Senate. Manchin (D) goes against our current Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). Republicans think Manchin is vulnerable. However, the progressive Democrat favored by Bernie, while losing to Manchin in the primary a couple weeks ago by 60K votes, matched Morrisey in total votes received across WV.

The Republicans had an (shall we say) interesting candidate, Don Blankenship, a coal mine owner who recently spent a year in prison for conspiracy to violate mine safety laws after one of his mines had a fire that killed over 2 dozen miners. Blankenship who got 20% of the Republican vote in the primary clearly resents President Trump and the Republican Party administration after they publicly came out against him and so he will not endorse Morrisey and vows to hurt Morrisey's candidacy - However, WV has a "sore loser" law that prevent Blankenship from running as a 3rd party.

So WV is going to be interesting this fall in regards to which part controls the Senate or at least keeping the R ratio close.

How is that for politics in a non PPB manner?

[CameronBornAndBred]

WV has a "sore loser" law that prevent Blankenship from running as a 3rd party.

Is that common?

[OldPhiKap]

I’m guessing that most of Blankenship’s backers won’t vote for Manchin under any circumstances. The question is whether they stay home in the general, or not.

[lotusland]

After exhaustive research and polling, I’m calling SC districts 1-5 & 7 for the Republicans and District 6 for the Democrats

[dudog84]

So I will start and we can see what happens.

I live in WV and, although highly unusual, it has become a battleground state for the midterms for control of the Senate. Manchin (D) goes against our current Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). Republicans think Manchin is vulnerable. However, the progressive Democrat favored by Bernie, while losing to Manchin in the primary a couple weeks ago by 60K votes, matched Morrisey in total votes received across WV.

The Republicans had an (shall we say) interesting candidate, Don Blankenship, a coal mine owner who recently spent a year in prison for conspiracy to violate mine safety laws after one of his mines had a fire that killed over 2 dozen miners. Blankenship who got 20% of the Republican vote in the primary clearly resents President Trump and the Republican Party administration after they publicly came out against him and so he will not endorse Morrisey and vows to hurt Morrisey's candidacy - However, WV has a "sore loser" law that prevent Blankenship from running as a 3rd party.

So WV is going to be interesting this fall in regards to which part controls the Senate or at least keeping the R ratio close.

How is that for politics in a non PPB manner?

From my perspective, excellent.

I'll start Florida. Off the top of my head, we're a well-known purple state. But both our state house and senate are about 2/3 Republican (in my opinion, the Rs have done a brilliant job (or the Ds have been lacking in strategy) of taking over state houses across the country)...but I won't get into the weeds of discussing state races. We've got a 3-term D Senator being challenged by the term-limited R Governor who has extremely deep pockets (he's not afraid of using his own money, unlike most). It's a toss-up.

The Governor primaries have not been held yet, but I think the D front-runner is the daughter of a very popular ex-Governor/U.S. Senator, and the Rs is a toss-up between long-time pol/Secretary of Agriculture (the state house Speaker surprisingly just dropped out of the race and endorsed him last week) and my district's U.S. House rep, who has been heartily endorsed by the President (which gives our Governor's race some national interest). Too early to say which way any of that will go.

So my U.S. House district does not have an incumbent, but 2 years ago I think it went to the R incumbent by about 17 points. I believe it be a toss-up this year, as both sides have crowded primaries with no clear leaders. A good friend of mine is dipping her toe into politics for the first time as the campaign treasurer for one of the candidates, so I have more interest than usual.

Another good friend of mine is running for our City Commission in her first attempt at any kind of office (she's in her early 50s). I only mention this because I think it's going to be interesting across the country in many ways.

Some very intriguing races, I think all are toss-ups by the time we get to November.

[JasonEvans]

After a lengthy discussion, the moderation team has decided that we will allow this thread to exist for now. However, as all of you should know there will be no partisan sniping allowed. And there can be no discussion of the merits of particular public policy issues. Keep it civil and analytical, not passionate, and we should be fine.

As with previous political threads, if you cross the line you will be hit with a very serious infraction. This is done so no one will even consider approaching the line. Play nice and we should be able to keep this thread alive.

Jason “ if you are uncertain about a post, feel free to send me a message and I will let you know if it would be acceptable” Evans

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

After a lengthy discussion, the moderation team has decided that we will allow this thread to exist for now. However, as all of you should know there will be no partisan sniping allowed. And there can be no discussion of the merits of particular public policy issues. Keep it civil and analytical, not passionate, and we should be fine.

As with previous political threads, if you cross the line you will be hit with a very serious infraction. This is done so no one will even consider approaching the line. Play nice and we should be able to keep this thread alive.

Jason “ if you are uncertain about a post, feel free to send me a message and I will let you know if it would be acceptable” Evans

As a long-time poster, generally in good standing who got dinged last year for a joke I made on a politician I like and respect, I would just say "when in doubt, leave it out."

There are fewer and fewer places for civil political discussions, let's try and keep this one.

[OldPhiKap]

After a lengthy discussion, the moderation team has decided that we will allow this thread to exist for now. However, as all of you should know there will be no partisan sniping allowed. And there can be no discussion of the merits of particular public policy issues. Keep it civil and analytical, not passionate, and we should be fine.

As with previous political threads, if you cross the line you will be hit with a very serious infraction. This is done so no one will even consider approaching the line. Play nice and we should be able to keep this thread alive.

Jason “ if you are uncertain about a post, feel free to send me a message and I will let you know if it would be acceptable” Evans

I applaud this choice, thanks.

[Bob Green]

Virginia primary is June 12th with Republicans voting to decide who takes on Tim Kaine (D) in November:

https://ballotpedia.org/United_State...lican_primary)

In deciding who will take on U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) in November, Virginia Republicans have a choice between Corey Stewart, a Prince William County supervisor tied to President Donald Trump, and state Del. Nick Freitas, a member of the party’s libertarian wing.

Corey Stewart

Nick Freitas

E.W. Jackson is also running.

Tim Kaine is an overwhelming favorite to win reelection in the general election. Poll data here and analysis here.

[OldPhiKap]

I’m not a big believer in generic party polls, but to give us a marker as this thread starts:

“Vote Democrat” leads “Vote Republican” for Congress nationally, 44.6% to 40.0% in Nate Silver’s weighting of polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

[Furniture]

After a lengthy discussion, the moderation team has decided that we will allow this thread to exist for now. However, as all of you should know there will be no partisan sniping allowed. And there can be no discussion of the merits of particular public policy issues. Keep it civil and analytical, not passionate, and we should be fine.

As with previous political threads, if you cross the line you will be hit with a very serious infraction. This is done so no one will even consider approaching the line. Play nice and we should be able to keep this thread alive.

Jason “ if you are uncertain about a post, feel free to send me a message and I will let you know if it would be acceptable” Evans

Thanks. It’s going to be a long summer so this should be a welcome distraction.

[rthomas]

Is that common?

The answer to this is yes, very common. Only 3 states don't have a "sore loser" law.

[Bluedog]

I’m not a big believer in generic party polls, but to give us a marker as this thread starts:

“Vote Democrat” leads “Vote Republican” for Congress nationally, 44.6% to 40.0% in Nate Silver’s weighting of polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

Interesting, but not very meaningful given it's just a nationwide poll -- it's not uncommon for the party that gets more votes to end up with fewer representatives. Obviously, the most recent presidential election reinforced the concept that 50 winner-take-all elections to determine a winner is much different than 1 election. Same with congressional elections. Doesn't matter who gets more votes in total across everything, just matters who wins more individual elections.

[OldPhiKap]

Interesting, but not very meaningful given it's just a nationwide poll -- it's not uncommon for the party that gets more votes to end up with fewer representatives. Obviously, the most recent presidential election reinforced the concept that 50 winner-take-all elections to determine a winner is much different than 1 election. Same with congressional elections. Doesn't matter who gets more votes in total across everything, just matters who wins more individual elections.

Exactly. Just a snapshot of general party voting preference as of mid-May. A measuring stick, Little more.