View Poll Results: What will be the result of the Midterms (vote twice!!)

Voters
48. You may not vote on this poll
  • GOP holds the House

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by less than 12 seats

    20 41.67%
  • Dems win the House by 12-25 seats

    12 25.00%
  • Dems win the House by 25-38 seats

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by 38+ seats

    1 2.08%
  • GOP gains 1 or more seats in the Senate (52-48 or more)

    29 60.42%
  • GOP holds the same number of seats in the Senate (51-49)

    7 14.58%
  • GOP loses seats but still holds the Senate (50-50 with Pence breaking tie)

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the Senate (49-51 or more)

    2 4.17%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1521
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by elvis14 View Post
    Georgia pipes up and says, "Hold my beer"...
    Sure, if you're buying!

  2. #1522
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Interesting that our polls were so wrong, so maybe they were right?

    Always hanky-panky in Florida. All you other states are just posers.
    Quote Originally Posted by elvis14 View Post
    Georgia pipes up and says, "Hold my beer"...
    Illinois and Louisiana chuckle to themselves about how the kids have grown.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  3. #1523
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    And then Jason spoke two words, two words that threatened to keep the thread open for weeks, perhaps months...

    Florida Recount!



    As provisional and absentee ballots are coming in, the Fla Gov and Sen races are getting closer.



    -Jason "popcorn anyone?" Evans
    I guarantee they learned absolutely nothing from 2000. A fleet of lawyers is now mobilizing to descend on Florida. What I found fascinating is that in this election Florida passed a law allowing felons to vote. I believe the estimates are that there are over a million felons in Florida who this impacts (which also amazes me). In such close races, if these felons had been allowed to vote, they really could have moved the needle one way or the other.

  4. #1524
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I guarantee they learned absolutely nothing from 2000. A fleet of lawyers is now mobilizing to descend on Florida. What I found fascinating is that in this election Florida passed a law allowing felons to vote. I believe the estimates are that there are over a million felons in Florida who this impacts (which also amazes me). In such close races, if these felons had been allowed to vote, they really could have moved the needle one way or the other.
    African American males tend to be incarcerated at disproportionately high rates, for reasons we really can't go into without straining PPB guidelines, I suspect.

    Africa Americans tend to vote Democratic at disproportionately high rates.

    Florida is a very hotly-contested state, with a lot of electoral votes and congress people.


    One does not need to have an advanced degree in political science to see the implications of this.

  5. #1525
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    African American males tend to be incarcerated at disproportionately high rates, for reasons we really can't go into without straining PPB guidelines, I suspect.

    Africa Americans tend to vote Democratic at disproportionately high rates.

    Florida is a very hotly-contested state, with a lot of electoral votes and congress people.


    One does not need to have an advanced degree in political science to see the implications of this.
    I know - I only have an undergraduate degree in Public Policy but I figured it out, but didn't want to open up a can of worms by stating it directly and send us down that path - I hoped everyone else would also reach that conclusion - I'm surprised it hasn't been discussed more in the media...

  6. #1526
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    African American males tend to be incarcerated at disproportionately high rates, for reasons we really can't go into without straining PPB guidelines, I suspect.

    Africa Americans tend to vote Democratic at disproportionately high rates.

    Florida is a very hotly-contested state, with a lot of electoral votes and congress people.


    One does not need to have an advanced degree in political science to see the implications of this.
    I have not looked into this, but my understanding is that there is mixed speculation on what the impact would be on votes.
    Carolina delenda est

  7. #1527
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Putting aside the above, Democrats tend to favor sentencing reform which I assume may appeal to someone who has been the subject of the criminal justice system.

    (To be fair, there are a number of Republicans that favor this too but it is divisive within the party -- see Jared Kushner and Senator Grassley who are currently pushing for it and Jeff Sessions who strongly opposed it).
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  8. #1528
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I guarantee they learned absolutely nothing from 2000. A fleet of lawyers is now mobilizing to descend on Florida. What I found fascinating is that in this election Florida passed a law allowing felons to vote. I believe the estimates are that there are over a million felons in Florida who this impacts (which also amazes me). In such close races, if these felons had been allowed to vote, they really could have moved the needle one way or the other.
    Floridian here (in case it wasn't obvious), the majority of these felons are non-violent cases (think drugs). If I may quote from my sample ballot:

    "This amendment restores the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions after they complete all terms of their sentence including parole or probation. The amendment would not apply to those convicted of murder or sexual offenses..."

    Seems eminently reasonable to me.

    The Governor could always restore them on a case-by-case basis, but that's been an issue because our current guy was disproportionately restoring Rs and white men. I could link an article if the board wants, but I don't want to get all PPB.

  9. #1529
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Floridian here (in case it wasn't obvious), the majority of these felons are non-violent cases (think drugs). If I may quote from my sample ballot:

    "This amendment restores the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions after they complete all terms of their sentence including parole or probation. The amendment would not apply to those convicted of murder or sexual offenses..."

    Seems eminently reasonable to me.

    The Governor could always restore them on a case-by-case basis, but that's been an issue because our current guy was disproportionately restoring Rs and white men. I could link an article if the board wants, but I don't want to get all PPB.
    As another Floridian here, I would like to point out that Florida was one of only a few states that did not have an automatic process to restore voting rights to non-violent felons (Iowa, Kentucky and Virginia being the others). As pointed out, restoration was at the mercy of the administration in charge
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  10. #1530
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Florida is soooo good at doing whatadoodle things, but I still find this hard to believe.

    In Broward County, 695,799 people turned in ballots. But only 665,688 voted in the Senate race.

    That's a 30,000 difference, a remarkable disparity given the stakes in this race and the name-recognition of these officials.

    It's a degree of undervote that is non-existent in the other statewide races on the ballot. For example, more than 690,000 people voted in the governor's race. If the results as they stand are accurate, more people in Broward voted for Agriculture Commissioner than U.S. Senate.
    -Jason "the lawyers and the courts are about to become front and center in the Sunshine state" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  11. #1531
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Florida is soooo good at doing whatadoodle things, but I still find this hard to believe.



    -Jason "the lawyers and the courts are about to become front and center in the Sunshine state" Evans
    The butterfly ballot still gives me butterflies 18 years later!

  12. #1532
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    And get this... Maricopa County Arizona just updated its vote totals and Kyrsten Sinema has now pulled ahead of Martha McSally for the first time in their Senate race. Here is the latest count:

    Sinema – 914,243 – 48.9%
    McSally – 912,137 – 48.8%

    Some of these races are just absurdly close. Is there no way we can have Sinema serve a week and then McSally serve a week and so on for the next 6 years?

    -Jason "sometimes I amuse myself" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  13. #1533
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "the lawyers and the courts are about to become front and center in the Sunshine state" Evans
    After 2000, I have absolutely ZERO faith in the ability of our system to fairly conduct a contested recount. The behavior on both sides are quite deplorable when it comes down to trying to get votes for their pol and suppress votes for the other pol.

  14. #1534
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Floridian here (in case it wasn't obvious)
    According to your profile location you are now going to have to kill all those who have read your post. This could get messy. Just be aware that you will be giving up your voting rights permanently.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  15. #1535
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    According to your profile location you are now going to have to kill all those who have read your post. This could get messy. Just be aware that you will be giving up your voting rights permanently.


    Yeah, that's gonna stop me.

  16. #1536
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Florida is soooo good at doing whatadoodle things, but I still find this hard to believe.



    -Jason "the lawyers and the courts are about to become front and center in the Sunshine state" Evans
    Have also been thinking of adding this, so here goes.

    My city has about 41,000 residents. We have a mayor and 4 zones, so that should be roughly 10,250 people per zone.

    The county elections department says the zone my friend was running in has 8,899 registered voters.

    That's simply impossible. It's doubtful there are that many adults.

    I started to get suspicious when there were over 5,500 votes cast in her zone. An adjacent city is split much the same (population/zone), and none of their races drew over 3,800 votes.

    Not sure what to do about it however. But if we get recounts, I'm contacting the Senate and Governor's camps.

  17. #1537
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Have also been thinking of adding this, so here goes.

    My city has about 41,000 residents. We have a mayor and 4 zones, so that should be roughly 10,250 people per zone.

    The county elections department says the zone my friend was running in has 8,899 registered voters.

    That's simply impossible. It's doubtful there are that many adults.

    I started to get suspicious when there were over 5,500 votes cast in her zone. An adjacent city is split much the same (population/zone), and none of their races drew over 3,800 votes.

    Not sure what to do about it however. But if we get recounts, I'm contacting the Senate and Governor's camps.
    Are there any cemeteries in your zone? I know there are places where dead people are known to vote for the party in charge of setting the rules.

  18. #1538
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    And get this... Maricopa County Arizona just updated its vote totals and Kyrsten Sinema has now pulled ahead of Martha McSally for the first time in their Senate race. Here is the latest count:

    Sinema – 914,243 – 48.9%
    McSally – 912,137 – 48.8%

    Some of these races are just absurdly close. Is there no way we can have Sinema serve a week and then McSally serve a week and so on for the next 6 years?

    -Jason "sometimes I amuse myself" Evans
    So it turns out that Az is a high "mail in vote" state. What does that equate to? How about 500,000. That is the number of mail in votes that have yet to be counted. Wow.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  19. #1539
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Some of these races are just absurdly close. Is there no way we can have Sinema serve a week and then McSally serve a week and so on for the next 6 years?
    http://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2012-11-08

  20. #1540
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Evodevomocracy. That's awesome.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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