View Poll Results: What will be the result of the Midterms (vote twice!!)

Voters
48. You may not vote on this poll
  • GOP holds the House

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by less than 12 seats

    20 41.67%
  • Dems win the House by 12-25 seats

    12 25.00%
  • Dems win the House by 25-38 seats

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by 38+ seats

    1 2.08%
  • GOP gains 1 or more seats in the Senate (52-48 or more)

    29 60.42%
  • GOP holds the same number of seats in the Senate (51-49)

    7 14.58%
  • GOP loses seats but still holds the Senate (50-50 with Pence breaking tie)

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the Senate (49-51 or more)

    2 4.17%
Multiple Choice Poll.
Page 1 of 94 1231151 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 1867
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA

    Midterm Elections 2018

    Hey mods! Is it possible to start a thread on the November Midterms? I thought the Presidential Thread 2 years ago was really good. And most people stuck to the rules of staying non-partisan (ie no calling one side a bunch of names or speaking derogatory about anyone’s politics views).

    Just thought I would see if this could fly. Going to be a pretty incredible 5 months for sure.

  2. #2
    How about a poll on how many posts it takes to get the thread closed?

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    How about a poll on how many posts it takes to get the thread closed?
    Or how many get banned 😫😫

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    I think it’s a great idea, because our geographic spread will give me some insight into races about which I know very little.

    But I don’t have to moderate the thread, and can appreciate why the mod team might not want to either.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    I don't know, my evaluations/guesses 2 years ago were even worse than my NCAA picks over the last 3 years. Don't know if I can take the humbling.

    So I may sit it out ("may" because I'm a brute for punishment). But I would certainly enjoy reading other people's takes. I think our crowd and the mods did a great job 2 years ago.

    Though I understand things may be rawer now.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I think it’s a great idea, because our geographic spread will give me some insight into races about which I know very little.

    But I don’t have to moderate the thread, and can appreciate why the mod team might not want to either.
    I echo that! I enjoy following other races, especially learning about ones that I don't know much about. I thought we did pretty well with the presidential race thread, and would like a mid-term one as well.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  7. #7
    So I will start and we can see what happens.

    I live in WV and, although highly unusual, it has become a battleground state for the midterms for control of the Senate. Manchin (D) goes against our current Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). Republicans think Manchin is vulnerable. However, the progressive Democrat favored by Bernie, while losing to Manchin in the primary a couple weeks ago by 60K votes, matched Morrisey in total votes received across WV.

    The Republicans had an (shall we say) interesting candidate, Don Blankenship, a coal mine owner who recently spent a year in prison for conspiracy to violate mine safety laws after one of his mines had a fire that killed over 2 dozen miners. Blankenship who got 20% of the Republican vote in the primary clearly resents President Trump and the Republican Party administration after they publicly came out against him and so he will not endorse Morrisey and vows to hurt Morrisey's candidacy - However, WV has a "sore loser" law that prevent Blankenship from running as a 3rd party.

    So WV is going to be interesting this fall in regards to which part controls the Senate or at least keeping the R ratio close.

    How is that for politics in a non PPB manner?
    ~rthomas

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by rthomas View Post
    WV has a "sore loser" law that prevent Blankenship from running as a 3rd party.
    Is that common?
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    I’m guessing that most of Blankenship’s backers won’t vote for Manchin under any circumstances. The question is whether they stay home in the general, or not.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  10. #10
    After exhaustive research and polling, I’m calling SC districts 1-5 & 7 for the Republicans and District 6 for the Democrats

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by rthomas View Post
    So I will start and we can see what happens.

    I live in WV and, although highly unusual, it has become a battleground state for the midterms for control of the Senate. Manchin (D) goes against our current Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). Republicans think Manchin is vulnerable. However, the progressive Democrat favored by Bernie, while losing to Manchin in the primary a couple weeks ago by 60K votes, matched Morrisey in total votes received across WV.

    The Republicans had an (shall we say) interesting candidate, Don Blankenship, a coal mine owner who recently spent a year in prison for conspiracy to violate mine safety laws after one of his mines had a fire that killed over 2 dozen miners. Blankenship who got 20% of the Republican vote in the primary clearly resents President Trump and the Republican Party administration after they publicly came out against him and so he will not endorse Morrisey and vows to hurt Morrisey's candidacy - However, WV has a "sore loser" law that prevent Blankenship from running as a 3rd party.

    So WV is going to be interesting this fall in regards to which part controls the Senate or at least keeping the R ratio close.

    How is that for politics in a non PPB manner?
    From my perspective, excellent.

    I'll start Florida. Off the top of my head, we're a well-known purple state. But both our state house and senate are about 2/3 Republican (in my opinion, the Rs have done a brilliant job (or the Ds have been lacking in strategy) of taking over state houses across the country)...but I won't get into the weeds of discussing state races. We've got a 3-term D Senator being challenged by the term-limited R Governor who has extremely deep pockets (he's not afraid of using his own money, unlike most). It's a toss-up.

    The Governor primaries have not been held yet, but I think the D front-runner is the daughter of a very popular ex-Governor/U.S. Senator, and the Rs is a toss-up between long-time pol/Secretary of Agriculture (the state house Speaker surprisingly just dropped out of the race and endorsed him last week) and my district's U.S. House rep, who has been heartily endorsed by the President (which gives our Governor's race some national interest). Too early to say which way any of that will go.

    So my U.S. House district does not have an incumbent, but 2 years ago I think it went to the R incumbent by about 17 points. I believe it be a toss-up this year, as both sides have crowded primaries with no clear leaders. A good friend of mine is dipping her toe into politics for the first time as the campaign treasurer for one of the candidates, so I have more interest than usual.

    Another good friend of mine is running for our City Commission in her first attempt at any kind of office (she's in her early 50s). I only mention this because I think it's going to be interesting across the country in many ways.

    Some very intriguing races, I think all are toss-ups by the time we get to November.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    After a lengthy discussion, the moderation team has decided that we will allow this thread to exist for now. However, as all of you should know there will be no partisan sniping allowed. And there can be no discussion of the merits of particular public policy issues. Keep it civil and analytical, not passionate, and we should be fine.

    As with previous political threads, if you cross the line you will be hit with a very serious infraction. This is done so no one will even consider approaching the line. Play nice and we should be able to keep this thread alive.

    Jason “ if you are uncertain about a post, feel free to send me a message and I will let you know if it would be acceptable” Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    After a lengthy discussion, the moderation team has decided that we will allow this thread to exist for now. However, as all of you should know there will be no partisan sniping allowed. And there can be no discussion of the merits of particular public policy issues. Keep it civil and analytical, not passionate, and we should be fine.

    As with previous political threads, if you cross the line you will be hit with a very serious infraction. This is done so no one will even consider approaching the line. Play nice and we should be able to keep this thread alive.

    Jason “ if you are uncertain about a post, feel free to send me a message and I will let you know if it would be acceptable” Evans
    As a long-time poster, generally in good standing who got dinged last year for a joke I made on a politician I like and respect, I would just say "when in doubt, leave it out."

    There are fewer and fewer places for civil political discussions, let's try and keep this one.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    After a lengthy discussion, the moderation team has decided that we will allow this thread to exist for now. However, as all of you should know there will be no partisan sniping allowed. And there can be no discussion of the merits of particular public policy issues. Keep it civil and analytical, not passionate, and we should be fine.

    As with previous political threads, if you cross the line you will be hit with a very serious infraction. This is done so no one will even consider approaching the line. Play nice and we should be able to keep this thread alive.

    Jason “ if you are uncertain about a post, feel free to send me a message and I will let you know if it would be acceptable” Evans
    I applaud this choice, thanks.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Virginia primary is June 12th with Republicans voting to decide who takes on Tim Kaine (D) in November:

    https://ballotpedia.org/United_State...lican_primary)

    In deciding who will take on U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) in November, Virginia Republicans have a choice between Corey Stewart, a Prince William County supervisor tied to President Donald Trump, and state Del. Nick Freitas, a member of the party’s libertarian wing.
    Corey Stewart

    Nick Freitas

    E.W. Jackson is also running.

    Tim Kaine is an overwhelming favorite to win reelection in the general election. Poll data here and analysis here.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    I’m not a big believer in generic party polls, but to give us a marker as this thread starts:

    “Vote Democrat” leads “Vote Republican” for Congress nationally, 44.6% to 40.0% in Nate Silver’s weighting of polls.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    After a lengthy discussion, the moderation team has decided that we will allow this thread to exist for now. However, as all of you should know there will be no partisan sniping allowed. And there can be no discussion of the merits of particular public policy issues. Keep it civil and analytical, not passionate, and we should be fine.

    As with previous political threads, if you cross the line you will be hit with a very serious infraction. This is done so no one will even consider approaching the line. Play nice and we should be able to keep this thread alive.

    Jason “ if you are uncertain about a post, feel free to send me a message and I will let you know if it would be acceptable” Evans
    Thanks. It’s going to be a long summer so this should be a welcome distraction.
    President of the Marshall Plumlee fan club!

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Is that common?
    The answer to this is yes, very common. Only 3 states don't have a "sore loser" law.
    ~rthomas

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I’m not a big believer in generic party polls, but to give us a marker as this thread starts:

    “Vote Democrat” leads “Vote Republican” for Congress nationally, 44.6% to 40.0% in Nate Silver’s weighting of polls.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
    Interesting, but not very meaningful given it's just a nationwide poll -- it's not uncommon for the party that gets more votes to end up with fewer representatives. Obviously, the most recent presidential election reinforced the concept that 50 winner-take-all elections to determine a winner is much different than 1 election. Same with congressional elections. Doesn't matter who gets more votes in total across everything, just matters who wins more individual elections.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Interesting, but not very meaningful given it's just a nationwide poll -- it's not uncommon for the party that gets more votes to end up with fewer representatives. Obviously, the most recent presidential election reinforced the concept that 50 winner-take-all elections to determine a winner is much different than 1 election. Same with congressional elections. Doesn't matter who gets more votes in total across everything, just matters who wins more individual elections.
    Exactly. Just a snapshot of general party voting preference as of mid-May. A measuring stick, Little more.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

Similar Threads

  1. Oscars 2018
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 32
    Last Post: 04-09-2018, 11:23 PM
  2. 2017-2018 team vs 2018-2019 team
    By proelitedota in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 01-25-2018, 05:27 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •