Midterm Elections 2018

[budwom]

I agree. I know several people who don't go on airplanes. And if offering to drive 3,000 miles across the country is not taking it seriously, I don't know what is.

I understand wanting to get this resolved as quickly as possible but I think that countering her offer of testifying on Thursday with Wednesday is really petty. If she was saying she had to wait until mid-October I would completely understand that being a non-starter. But a matter of a day or two really should be a non-issue. Hopefully her drive across the country is not followed like OJ and AC driving the Bronco.

I assume her testimony will be pretty predictable - basically saying out loud what she has already said. The bigger wild card is his testimony. There are a lot of ways he could approach this and his specific wording will be closely analyzed. But as many others have already said, barring something unexpected (and I have learned these days to expect the unexpected), nothing earth shattering is going to happen, and no minds will be changed. But the ratings are going to be off the charts.

Is it possible that the flying averse witness is Tony Kornheiser or John Madden?

[JasonEvans]

Folks, this thread is about the upcoming election. The mod team has been pretty gracious lately and let you all talk about the Kav/Ford stuff in ways that are clearly not election-related, but that needs to stop. Some recent posts have been deleted and some folks have gotten infractions for saying stuff that is obviously partisan.

Going forward, please remember the guideline to keep it analytical and election-focused. Thanks.

[cato]

What does prevailing wisdom say about outcomes in Congress? It used to be: Dems take the House but don’t get the Senate this cycle.

Has anything shifted?

Beto seems to be running strong in TX.

[Reilly]

How active are past, failed national candidates this election cycle? Sarah Palin stumping? Hillary Clinton? John Kerry? Martin O'Malley?

[Tom B.]

Paul Gosar (R-AZ 4) responds to his six siblings who've endorsed (and are now starring in ads for) his opponent:

“My siblings who chose to film ads against me are all liberal Democrats who hate President Trump,” Gosar continued in another tweet. “These disgruntled Hillary suppporters [sic] are related by blood to me but like leftists everywhere, they put political ideology before family. Stalin would be proud.”

Link: https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...pponent-stalin

I'm guessing Thanksgiving with the Gosar family is gonna be a little...awkward.

Gosar is still the favorite to win re-election, by the way. His district is deep red -- Charlie Cook rates it at R+21, and Gosar typically wins with around 65-70% of the vote.

[dudog84]

Some new general polling out this morning:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...ctions-n912046

But just like the Electoral College, it's individual districts (House) and states (Senate) that matter.

I still don't understand why Pelosi insists on being a drag on her party's chances.

[Indoor66]

I still don't understand why Pelosi insists on being a drag on her party's chances.

Power: the ultimate aphrodisiac.

[dudog84]

Re Pelosi, this article makes some points:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4...-to-topple-her

[Troublemaker]

What does prevailing wisdom say about outcomes in Congress? It used to be: Dems take the House but don’t get the Senate this cycle.

Has anything shifted?

No shift as far as I can tell. The odds on ElectionBettingOdds and PredictIt have remained pretty steady for a few months now.

The Ds are a ~66% favorite to win the House.

The Rs are a ~70% favorite to win the Senate.

[Bostondevil]

It's hard for me to imagine any real hard evidence proving/disproving the allegations at this point. The only thing that can have real effects on the nomination process is one side or the other shooting themselves in the foot.

I remain a little skeptical that all these supposed gaffes by Rs will have that effect, though. It's become common to say that we live in a different environment regarding issues of sexual harassment and assault than decades ago. That's probably true to some degree, but we still had someone elected to our highest office who was recorded ON VIDEO bragging about his ability to commit sexual assault with relatively minor effect on voting numbers. So I am not quite sure I agree on the supposed large effects all these gaffes will have.

The statistician in me has to point out that although we did manage to elect such a man who bragged about his ability to commit sexual assault - less than 20% of the population of this country actually pulled a lever for him.

[dudog84]

Anyone from this Virginia district that pits Taylor against Luria? Is this much ado about nothing or is it having a big affect on the campaign in your area?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...UNQ?li=BBnb7Kz

[Troublemaker]

Folks, this thread is about the upcoming election. The mod team has been pretty gracious lately and let you all talk about the Kav/Ford stuff in ways that are clearly not election-related, but that needs to stop. Some recent posts have been deleted and some folks have gotten infractions for saying stuff that is obviously partisan.

Going forward, please remember the guideline to keep it analytical and election-focused. Thanks.

Thank you, Jason.

After the events of tonight (New Yorker story, Avenatti), strict enforcement of the above would be appreciated.

I'm not even sure civil discussion is possible re: Kavanaugh. Whereas, prior to tonight, I perceived the angrier side in the Kavanaugh confirmation to be the Ds, the battle has been joined tonight. Rs are piping hot right now. I have some ideas about how that could affect the midterms, but I'll wait for polling. Analysis really should be data-driven if anyone wants to touch the Kavanaugh confirmation at this point. Just my 2 cents.

[OldPhiKap]

Thank you, Jason.

After the events of tonight (New Yorker story, Avenatti), strict enforcement of the above would be appreciated.

I'm not even sure civil discussion is possible re: Kavanaugh. Whereas, prior to tonight, I perceived the angrier side in the Kavanaugh confirmation to be the Ds, the battle has been joined tonight. Rs are piping hot right now. I have some ideas about how that could affect the midterms, but I'll wait for polling. Analysis really should be data-driven if anyone wants to touch the Kavanaugh confirmation at this point. Just my 2 cents.

Suddenly, this is not even the top story swirling around Washington.

I'm dizzy.

[Tom B.]

Anyone from this Virginia district that pits Taylor against Luria? Is this much ado about nothing or is it having a big affect on the campaign in your area?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...UNQ?li=BBnb7Kz

I'm not in that district -- but I live in Richmond, about 90 miles away from the Hampton Roads area, so this story has gotten plenty of media coverage here.

My take, FWIW: It's a significant story, and it has hurt Taylor at least somewhat, though it's unclear exactly how much. The state has appointed a special prosecutor to investigate the shenanigans. Taylor himself hasn't been directly tied to any wrongdoing (yet), but the emerging picture is that of a culture of, shall we say, win-at-all-cost rule-bending in his office, which has reflected badly on him. If nothing else, it's become one of those steady drip-drip-drip stories that hounds a candidate and prevents him from being able to run in clean air. Throw in the Trump Effect on top of it, and what should have been a relatively easy re-election race for Taylor in a military-heavy, conservative-leaning district is now basically a coin flip.

It's just one anecdotal data point, but I have a good friend who lives in that district who's a fairly mainstream conservative, ex-military, and voted for Taylor in 2016 who says he will not be voting for Taylor this time.

[BandAlum83]

Suddenly, this is not even the top story swirling around Washington.

I'm dizzy.

Evidently, that was exactly the plan:

“THE STRATEGY WAS TO TRY AND DO SOMETHING REALLY BIG”: TRUMP WANTED TO NUKE ROSENSTEIN TO SAVE KAVANAUGH’S BACON

[OldPhiKap]

Evidently, that was exactly the plan:

“THE STRATEGY WAS TO TRY AND DO SOMETHING REALLY BIG”: TRUMP WANTED TO NUKE ROSENSTEIN TO SAVE KAVANAUGH’S BACON

Thanks. A quote relevant to the point of the thread, with Jason's admonition (post 882) in mind:

"According to the source, Trump allies are imploring him to cut Kavanaugh loose for the sake of saving Republicans’ electoral chances in the midterms. The argument these advisers are making is that if Kavanaugh’s nomination fails, demoralized Republicans will stay home in November, and Democrats will take the House and the Senate and initiate impeachment proceedings. The end result: Trump will be removed from office.'

Not sure I buy that logic though. I think the opposite, actually.

[Wander]

Thanks. A quote relevant to the point of the thread, with Jason's admonition (post 882) in mind:

"According to the source, Trump allies are imploring him to cut Kavanaugh loose for the sake of saving Republicans’ electoral chances in the midterms. The argument these advisers are making is that if Kavanaugh’s nomination fails, demoralized Republicans will stay home in November, and Democrats will take the House and the Senate and initiate impeachment proceedings. The end result: Trump will be removed from office.'

Not sure I buy that logic though. I think the opposite, actually.

I think I agree with you – my wild speculation is that if Kavanaugh isn't nominated Republicans will be angry and turn out in great numbers, with the opposite being true for Democrats. The conspiracy theorist in me even thinks that is why Trump started off this whole episode not ranting on Twitter like usual. I'd be interested in seeing polling numbers that support/don't support this idea, though.

[camion]

I think I agree with you – my wild speculation is that if Kavanaugh isn't nominated Republicans will be angry and turn out in great numbers, with the opposite being true for Democrats. The conspiracy theorist in me even thinks that is why Trump started off this whole episode not ranting on Twitter like usual. I'd be interested in seeing polling numbers that support/don't support this idea, though.

I would agree I think if I understand your post. My supposition is that if Kavanaugh is withdrawn or fails to be confirmed then Republican numbers will be enhanced in the mid-term. If Kavanaugh is confirmed then Democrat numbers will be enhanced.

[BandAlum83]

Thanks. A quote relevant to the point of the thread, with Jason's admonition (post 882) in mind:

"According to the source, Trump allies are imploring him to cut Kavanaugh loose for the sake of saving Republicans’ electoral chances in the midterms. The argument these advisers are making is that if Kavanaugh’s nomination fails, demoralized Republicans will stay home in November, and Democrats will take the House and the Senate and initiate impeachment proceedings. The end result: Trump will be removed from office.'

Not sure I buy that logic though. I think the opposite, actually.

I also believe the opposite. If the Senate fails to confirm Kavanaugh, I think it will energize the R base to turn out to keep the Senate.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I would agree I think if I understand your post. My supposition is that if Kavanaugh is withdrawn or fails to be confirmed then Republican numbers will be enhanced in the mid-term. If Kavanaugh is confirmed then Democrat numbers will be enhanced.

Is there a snowball's chance that if Kavanaugh's nomination is shot down, his replacement has still not been voted on election day?
Kavanaugh was nominated July 9th, two and a half months ago. Whoever the next nominee is, if needed, they will be ultra super fast tracked to a vote, but it seems that this process can get held up in lots of stonewalling.
And...if there is no seated judge by election day, will that energize voters or keep them home? Ultimately, the outcome of this election will not have an impact on the next seat at the SCOTUS table; someone will get needed votes by the time the election winners move into their offices.