2020 Duke men's basketball recruiting

[SkyBrickey]

If you're facing a second round pick and developing in the G League, I don't think it's an obvious call one way or the other. Every kid will be different.

The case for Duke: you compete for championships with your friends, you play on TV every night, you work toward a free degree which could really benefit you if basketball doesn't work out, you develop those "brotherhood" bonds that could also help you out down the road, college is fun.

If you don't enjoy the college experience as much and are more motivated by short-term dollars and a G league salary, then the G league may be a more attractive path to jump on.

Neither is wrong but kids and parents are going to prioritize different things. I could see Hurt playing himself into a first round pick, but for Duke fans it would be amazing to see all 3 back for another year. Luke Kennard is a great example of a kid who had a breakout sophomore year, played himself into a first round pick, and is now a starter with the Pistons...

[BD80]

yeah, I don't think you can draw Social Security at age 20, can you? I remember feeling pretty young at that age.

Let's see … When I was 20, there was no drinking age, but there was Prohibition …

... Luke Kennard is a great example of a kid who had a breakout sophomore year, played himself into a first round pick, and is now a starter with the Pistons...

I'm confused. Is this an example of a good outcome, or a bad one?

[DavidBenAkiva]

The age thing with Stanley doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me, to be honest. He'll go not because he will be 21 years old next season but because he wants to go.

Just looking at last year's draft, some people had concerns about Brandon Clarke of Gonzaga, who is a 23 year-old rookie (as is Cameron Johnson). Clarke was a 1st rounder and has had a really strong start to his NBA career. Cam Johnson has too, for that matter. Matisse Thybulle of Washington is another guy, currently 22, that was an older NBA 1st rounder.

Personally, I don't think Stanley is as skilled as he needs to be to be drafted in the 1st round at the moment. Obviously, the athleticism is there to be a pro. And he's pretty good defensively, getting his fair share of steals. He's making 40% of his 3's so far this year and making more than half his 2's, primarily at the rim. He's a pretty good rebounder for a guard and gives you some steals and block shots, too. But he is not particularly assertive offensively and doesn't have playmaking abilities that he has shown to date. He projects out as a reserve 3-and-D in the NBA to me. That's worth a 2nd round pick to some team that sees upside with him. Maybe he hears that during the draft process and that's enough for him to go pro. Personally, I think he could become a 1st rounder by tightening up his dribble a little, taking more shots, and being a bigger part of the offense and defense. That may happen during conference play this season or it may happen next year. Or it might not happen! He might be as good as he'll ever be and getting to the draft before more scouts start finding flaws in his game might be the way to go. It's a tough call and I have sympathy for him. At least he's in a great situation right now at Duke where he is going to get great information and feedback.

As it relates to Duke and recruiting, It will be a luxury if any combination of Stanley, Moore, and Hurt return for a sophomore year. All have various skills and abilities and would help continue this great run Duke has had the past couple of years. I'd love to have a group of sophomores with the depth of the Class of 2020. Sprinkle in a little shooting with AOC, Joey Baker, and the hard-nosed bulldog that is Jordan Goldwire, and you have a heck of a squad.

[JasonEvans]

At least he's in a great situation right now at Duke where he is going to get great information and feedback.

Cassius Stanley's father is a fairly prominent sports agent (Keyshawn Johnson, Baron Davis, and a slew of NFL players) who will undoubtedly be able to get a lot of info on Cassius' prospects on his own in addition to the information Duke is able to provide.

[sagegrouse]

Cassius Stanley's father is a fairly prominent sports agent (Keyshawn Johnson, Baron Davis, and a slew of NFL players) who will undoubtedly be able to get a lot of info on Cassius' prospects on his own in addition to the information Duke is able to provide.

Which also implies that there is no strong economic incentive to try and cash in immediately for smaller paychecks.

[JasonEvans]

Which also implies that there is no strong economic incentive to try and cash in immediately for smaller paychecks.

As I said on the podcast a couple episodes ago, I read that Stanley's father has negotiated contracts worth in excess of $200 million over the course of his career as an agent. While there are expenses that come with running an agency, that would certainly imply that Jerome Stanley has taken home millions of dollars over the years.

[SkyBrickey]

As I said on the podcast a couple episodes ago, I read that Stanley's father has negotiated contracts worth in excess of $200 million over the course of his career as an agent. While there are expenses that come with running an agency, that would certainly imply that Jerome Stanley has taken home millions of dollars over the years.

Personally I think this is a stronger indicator that he may return to Duke than leaving for the G League just because he's 20.

I would bet a factor in Tre coming back was big brother Tyus, now worth millions, saying, "stay at least another year and soak it up, bro".

[UrinalCake]

Psst - I think we all got the sarcasm. In fact, my response was tacitly acknowledging the reference to 2015 and 2001.

2010 too. Although I suppose you could argue that we actually had zero point guards that season, just two guys who played the position.

[UrinalCake]

Which also implies that there is no strong economic incentive to try and cash in immediately for smaller paychecks.

Also implies he has grown up around professional athletes and has gotten a glimpse of that lifestyle, and may want it for himself. I’ve never bought into the notion that if a player’s parents are rich then he doesn’t have a motivation to earn money on his own.

[sagegrouse]

Personally I think this is a stronger indicator that he may return to Duke than leaving for the G League just because he's 20.

I would bet a factor in Tre coming back was big brother Tyus, now worth millions, saying, "stay at least another year and soak it up, bro".

The variant on Tyus to Tre, I suppose, is "I got pushed around big time in the League. Why don't you stay at Duke another year and get stronger?"

[CDu]

Personally I think this is a stronger indicator that he may return to Duke than leaving for the G League just because he's 20.

I would bet a factor in Tre coming back was big brother Tyus, now worth millions, saying, "stay at least another year and soak it up, bro".

The variant on Tyus to Tre, I suppose, is "I got pushed around big time in the League. Why don't you stay at Duke another year and get stronger?"

I think the biggest factor in Tre's return was that his draft stock just wasn't there. He was going to be a second rounder at best last year. For a kid whose family isn't hurting for money, that's not a strong incentive to leave. Especially so when there are other reasons to stay (you apparently really like Duke, you feel like you didn't accomplish what you wanted as a freshman).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Cassius Stanley's father is a fairly prominent sports agent (Keyshawn Johnson, Baron Davis, and a slew of NFL players) who will undoubtedly be able to get a lot of info on Cassius' prospects on his own in addition to the information Duke is able to provide.

I had forgotten about that! No doubt the Stanleys are going to be in an information-rich environment.

[budwom]

if you like staying in cheap motels, the G league is definitely the way to go.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Cassius Stanley's father is a fairly prominent sports agent (Keyshawn Johnson, Baron Davis, and a slew of NFL players) who will undoubtedly be able to get a lot of info on Cassius' prospects on his own in addition to the information Duke is able to provide.

Having a fairly prominent agent as the parent of a player must be a nightmare for Duke's compliance department - if he wants to take Cassius and his roommate out to dinner, there are likely compliance issues.

But given the way Cassius has been developing, it is definitely a headache worth having!

[CDu]

2010 too. Although I suppose you could argue that we actually had zero point guards that season, just two guys who played the position.

Yeah, I'd say 2010 had zero PGs, but one SG who played PG (and played it really well). Smith was a SG who played SG.

Smith then was a SG who played PG in 2011 when Irving got hurt (and also played it really well).

I don't see 2010 much like 2001 or 2015. 2015 had PGs, but only one really played PG (Jones). Cook played SG (and he played it really well).

I think 2001 was the only real "two PG lineup" of those three years. Both Jason Williams and Chris Duhon were PGs, and shared the PG duties when on the court together.

Bringing it back to the 2020 class, I'd see a Steward/Roach pairing (if both start) as more like 2015. Roach would be the PG, Steward would be the SG (though a SG capable of playing PG).

[ChillinDuke]

The age thing with Stanley doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me, to be honest. He'll go not because he will be 21 years old next season but because he wants to go.

Just looking at last year's draft, some people had concerns about Brandon Clarke of Gonzaga, who is a 23 year-old rookie (as is Cameron Johnson). Clarke was a 1st rounder and has had a really strong start to his NBA career. Cam Johnson has too, for that matter. Matisse Thybulle of Washington is another guy, currently 22, that was an older NBA 1st rounder.

Personally, I don't think Stanley is as skilled as he needs to be to be drafted in the 1st round at the moment. Obviously, the athleticism is there to be a pro. And he's pretty good defensively, getting his fair share of steals. He's making 40% of his 3's so far this year and making more than half his 2's, primarily at the rim. He's a pretty good rebounder for a guard and gives you some steals and block shots, too. But he is not particularly assertive offensively and doesn't have playmaking abilities that he has shown to date. He projects out as a reserve 3-and-D in the NBA to me. That's worth a 2nd round pick to some team that sees upside with him. Maybe he hears that during the draft process and that's enough for him to go pro. Personally, I think he could become a 1st rounder by tightening up his dribble a little, taking more shots, and being a bigger part of the offense and defense. That may happen during conference play this season or it may happen next year. Or it might not happen! He might be as good as he'll ever be and getting to the draft before more scouts start finding flaws in his game might be the way to go. It's a tough call and I have sympathy for him. At least he's in a great situation right now at Duke where he is going to get great information and feedback.

As it relates to Duke and recruiting, It will be a luxury if any combination of Stanley, Moore, and Hurt return for a sophomore year. All have various skills and abilities and would help continue this great run Duke has had the past couple of years. I'd love to have a group of sophomores with the depth of the Class of 2020. Sprinkle in a little shooting with AOC, Joey Baker, and the hard-nosed bulldog that is Jordan Goldwire, and you have a heck of a squad.

Barring a big second half of the season from Cassius, he strikes me as the prototypical 2nd year guy. Similar to an Elliot Williams in situation but not in skill or player type, Cassius has a lot of glaringly obvious budding pieces to his game but no surefire NBA skills standing at today (other than athleticism, but I wouldn't call that a skill). As such, he seems like the kind of guy that K would challenge to "take over" next year as a sophomore - not singularly, because we'll have Johnson and likely others. Cassius could use the offseason to come out next year as one of the faces of the team and show that he has honed his pieces into obvious skills ready to translate into the NBA.

Of course, it may not play out even remotely close to the way I'm describing. But he seems like someone that would obviously benefit from a 2nd year, potentially dramatically.

Moore is in a similar position, although his skills aren't quite as obvious to me at this time as Cassius'. At least in terms of NBA translation. Hurt I think will leave as he has an obvious NBA role that is visible today (I see his situation similar to Zach Collins at Gonzaga).

Cassius to me has star written all over him. But he needs to refine his skills and learn exactly what his athleticism is capable of on the floor. I don't think he'll really attain that level midseason at this point. I'd be extremely happy to be proven wrong, of course.

- Chillin

[BD80]

Yeah, I'd say 2010 had zero PGs, but one SG who played PG (and played it really well). Smith was a SG who played SG.

Smith then was a SG who played PG in 2011 when Irving got hurt (and also played it really well).

I don't see 2010 much like 2001 or 2015. 2015 had PGs, but only one really played PG (Jones). Cook played SG (and he played it really well).

I think 2001 was the only real "two PG lineup" of those three years. Both Jason Williams and Chris Duhon were PGs, and shared the PG duties when on the court together.

Bringing it back to the 2020 class, I'd see a Steward/Roach pairing (if both start) as more like 2015. Roach would be the PG, Steward would be the SG (though a SG capable of playing PG).

And I would say the pepper is now thoroughly free of fly droppings ...

[SkyBrickey]

if you like staying in cheap motels, the G league is definitely the way to go.

And playing in front of 1,000 person crowds on a good night...

I got curious and looked it up. Unless you're on a two-way contract, G League players make $35,000 a year - that may feel like real money to some kids, but it doesn't come close to securing anyone's future, because it's essentially a dead-end job unless you can make that leap to the NBA (or pivot to a bigger overseas contract).

If Cassius is tracking to be a second round pick, unless he just dislikes school, I would think his affluent parents would be encouraging him to come back to work toward his degree, to get stronger and work on his ball handling, and try to play himself into a first round pick next year like a Luke Kennard. But of course that's all pure speculation and me projecting my own views and values onto his situation...

I sometimes question the decision, but I never fault these kids for choosing to turn pro and go collect a paycheck.

[SkyBrickey]

And I agree about MH. If you can play yourself into a first round pick with one great game, then Matthew Hurt did that against Boston College. I'm sure that performance left some scouts drooling. That was the Matthew Hurt I was expecting to see based on his reputation coming out of high school.

I don't think that was a fluke - I'm hoping we see a lot more of it over the next 3 months - and I expect he'll probably end up as a mid first round pick.

[Hingeknocker]

Bringing it back to the 2020 class, I'd see a Steward/Roach pairing (if both start) as more like 2015. Roach would be the PG, Steward would be the SG (though a SG capable of playing PG).

Pretty great analysis of our title-winning guard combos. I just wanted to add one thing about 2015: it's pretty amazing how great of a SG Quinn Cook was that year. He shot 40% from 3, on 6.6 attempts per game. Adding in the ball-handling/mentoring duties that he shared with Tyus that year...what a season for an all-time favorite Blue Devil. I think it was after the UNC overtime win when Quinn interrupted Tyus's post-game interview to proclaim "best backcourt!" He was right; they were great.

Incidentally, Cook's O-Rating (per T-Rank) was 127.3 that season, a seriously impressive number...that was second on the team, to Marshall Plumlee's 137.4. Amazing what shooting 100% from 3 for the year will do .