2020 Duke men's basketball recruiting

[MChambers]

In case you are wondering, here's what Mark Williams looks like in a Duke uniform. In a possibly related move, a few Duke twitter accounts are also saying things like "Duke got a verbal commitment" without mentioning a specific recruitment. It makes you think...

Useless without cinder blocks.

[frb]

from the article on 247sports, Z Williams is in no rush. Sprint time decision. Article doesn't mention Duke at all but I can't imagine him not being interested if there's a clear opening at the 2/3 for him. We'll see if W Moore is OAD... and how Stanley progresses. If Moore is OAD, I got to think staff will turn the heat up on Z Williams.. unless there's someone in the 2021 class they're looking at. Jonathan K isn't reclassifying last I read.

[proelitedota]

from the article on 247sports, Z Williams is in no rush.

We have to get all the recruits that has name Z... Williams...

[dm9e24]

We aren't recruiting Ziaire Williams anymore. If we don't get Dickerson, I can't imagine any other options outside of Matthew Hurt coming back.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

We aren't recruiting Ziaire Williams anymore. If we don't get Dickerson, I can't imagine any other options outside of Matthew Hurt coming back.

On what do you base that statement? He received an offer from Duke in July and listed us in his final 7 just two months ago.

[clinresga]

I would say the 2020 class is looking as close to a dream class as we've seen in quite some time - at least a "dream class" for those wanting to focus less on One-And-Done. With 5 guys in the fold already spanning every position save maybe a true center, we have excellent versatility...we have 2 more offers outstanding hoping to round out that big man position. Both project as multi-year players as well. So assuming one of those two hits, we will have an extremely well rounded class that looks to form the foundation of our team for at least 2 years and maybe longer...So in summary I'd say 2020 is looking fantastic assuming we land at least one of the two big man we have extended offers. If we get both and/or a reclass like Kuminga it may be a truly exceptional class if not the most top-end talented.

- Chillin

DBR has been my basketball home for many years, but I will admit to straying to other sites periodically. I generally find that Ball Durham is interesting, with a different spin in some cases, but I found this link to be provocative to say the least. It's written with a "sky is falling" negative attitude, which I think is clickbait more than real opinion, but the basic premise is interesting and would love to see what the DBR experts think.

Giles argues that the stock of our current freshman class is falling, and that there's a possibility that we could end up with none of our underclassmen departing for the NBA next year, leaving us one short on scholarships for the 2020 class, assuming that we get Williams.

I think he's dramatizing for clicks--in particular, writing off Carey after one poor showing in the NW Missouri game. But it's not preposterous to argue that Hurt may not have the physical presence, that Tre may not develop an offensive game that would make him NBA-worthy, and I think even DBR opinion on the rest of the freshman is that none are NBA guarantees.

Even if only one departs, if we got both Williams and Dickinson, could there be a logjam? I hope the solution is not the bleak one that Giles suggests, which is that Joey Baker departs after getting no love this year from K.

[UrinalCake]

I occasionally visit ball durham, I do think the author goes a little overboard and dramatizes in order to get clicks. The scenario does exist, but it is very remote and the article’s headline makes it sound like it is imminent. If all of our freshmen plus Tre decided to come back then I would be happy with not getting any more recruits. That would be a killer team, even if the reason everyone came back is that they had disappointing seasons. And yes, in that scenario I would expect a high likelihood of a transfer, or a decommitment from one of our current 2020 guys.

[JasonEvans]

DBR has been my basketball home for many years, but I will admit to straying to other sites periodically. I generally find that Ball Durham is interesting, with a different spin in some cases, but I found this link to be provocative to say the least. It's written with a "sky is falling" negative attitude, which I think is clickbait more than real opinion, but the basic premise is interesting and would love to see what the DBR experts think.

Giles argues that the stock of our current freshman class is falling, and that there's a possibility that we could end up with none of our underclassmen departing for the NBA next year, leaving us one short on scholarships for the 2020 class, assuming that we get Williams.

I think he's dramatizing for clicks--in particular, writing off Carey after one poor showing in the NW Missouri game. But it's not preposterous to argue that Hurt may not have the physical presence, that Tre may not develop an offensive game that would make him NBA-worthy, and I think even DBR opinion on the rest of the freshman is that none are NBA guarantees.

Even if only one departs, if we got both Williams and Dickinson, could there be a logjam? I hope the solution is not the bleak one that Giles suggests, which is that Joey Baker departs after getting no love this year from K.

In his 40 years as head basketball coach at Duke, K has never (to my knowledge) had a situation where he has been forced to rescind a scholarship or kick a player off the team to make way for another player. The notion that it would suddenly happen now seems ludicrous to me. All of this feels like a silly hot take after one pre-season exhibition game from a hot take website. Wake me up in January or February when we can actually start to really assess who has a chance to turn pro from this Duke team.

-Jason "I have already given this nonsense more bandwidth of attention than it deserves" Evans

[dm9e24]

I don't think any of the freshmen are coming back. It's the new culture of the nba (drafting on potential) and quite frankly the culture at Duke. Kids come to Duke feeling that Duke will get them to the nba after one year. I'm not sure Frank Jackson was even drafted. I don't think Wendell Moore is a OAD at somewhere like UVa. A successful program that just won a NC. But it is not their culture to send kids to the nba after one season
In the world we live in now, Kyle Singler would have probably been a first round pick. Instead, we got to have him for 4 years and he helped bring a NC to Durham after he and his peers took some major lumps early in their career. This year's freshmen remind me a lot of Scheyer, Nolan and Kyle. None of them, outside of maybe Carey, are ready for an nba roster.
And this was the case BEFORE Saturday night.

[Steven43]

I don't think any of the freshmen are coming back. It's the new culture of the nba (drafting on potential) and quite frankly the culture at Duke. Kids come to Duke feeling that Duke will get them to the nba after one year. I'm not sure Frank Jackson was even drafted. I don't think Wendell Moore is a OAD at somewhere like UVa. A successful program that just won a NC. But it is not their culture to send kids to the nba after one season
In the world we live in now, Kyle Singler would have probably been a first round pick. Instead, we got to have him for 4 years and he helped bring a NC to Durham after he and his peers took some major lumps early in their career. This year's freshmen remind me a lot of Scheyer, Nolan and Kyle. None of them, outside of maybe Carey, are ready for an nba roster.
And this was the case BEFORE Saturday night.

You might well be correct that Coach K has created a culture where the vast majority of players choosing to come to Duke have the intention of being in college for only one season. If that is indeed the case, I rue the day that Coach K chose to create and perpetuate that type of culture within his basketball program.

Maybe that’s not the case; I don’t know. It isn’t for me to say. Perhaps Duke being looked at by players, fans, and the media as the ultimate OAD program (and it absolutely is perceived as such) is unfair and was not actually done by design by Coach K.

All I’m saying is that if it was Coach K’s intent to propagate the idea that the top high school players in the country should come to Duke because his program is best equipped to get them to the NBA in just one year, well, I completely and thoroughly disagree with that model.

[UrinalCake]

I think Coach K’s intent is and has always been to recruit the best players. The landscape of college basketball has changed and he has not worked against it. As for our freshman class, I think one or two of them will stay but things could change.

[SouthernDukie]

You might well be correct that Coach K has created a culture where the vast majority of players choosing to come to Duke have the intention of being in college for only one season. If that is indeed the case, I rue the day that Coach K chose to create and perpetuate that type of culture within his basketball program.

Maybe that’s not the case; I don’t know. It isn’t for me to say. Perhaps Duke being looked at by players, fans, and the media as the ultimate OAD program (and it absolutely is perceived as such) is unfair and was not actually done by design by Coach K.

All I’m saying is that if it was Coach K’s intent to propagate the idea that the top high school players in the country should come to Duke because his program is best equipped to get them to the NBA in just one year, well, I completely and thoroughly disagree with that model.

Unless I hear it from the man's lips himself, I'll never believe Coach K had a purposefully designed plan to create an image of Duke as an automatic OAD factory for incoming freshmen. I think it's much simpler than that. He/Duke have had an incredible run in recruiting absolutely top-notch talent and that talent has succeeded enough in one year most of the time to warrant putting their names into the NBA draft.

I don't think there's any more to it than that. Are we supposed to turn down Reddish or Williamson simply because we already have Jones and Barrett? Should we only take half the 5 stars that want to come here in any given year and instead pick some 4 stars, hoping to get the mix just right year in and year out where we both compete for championships and never have a down year? Good luck.

The truth is Coach K hasn't purposely tried to make Duke an OAD factory where every Top 50 kid automatically assumes they will be leaving after one season. I refuse to believe that has ever been Coach's intent. But if you make a great, sustained run in recruiting for many consecutive years, it's easy to end up where we are this year. It's gonna happen from time to time.

And oh... btw... the season hasn't even officially begun yet (just exhibitions) and we have no idea what this current Blue Devil team might accomplish. Let's give this stew time and see what it's like when it's finished cooking.

[Troublemaker]

I don't believe this is the first time Duke has recruited past the scholarship limit in the unlikely event of non-attrition; that's just something you have to do if you recruit players who might leave after one season.

In any case, it's unrealistic to expect Tre and Matthew back. We're already lucky to have gotten Tre back for a sophomore season, and even if his poor shooting knocks him into the second-round, we've seen second-rounders leave. As for Matthew, he's a big wing -- a position of scarcity in the NBA -- who can shoot and knows how to play; he's a first-rounder.

The odds are heavily in favor of at least one of Vernon, Wendell, and Cassius leaving, too. (It would be pretty sweet to get two of those three back, though. Next season's roster could really use a C and SF. Sophomore Vernon should easily be a better option than either frosh MWilliams or frosh Dickinson, for example. Not that I'm holding my breath expecting it.)

Finally, it's possible for juniors at Duke to be close to graduation if they were interested in grad-transferring somewhere for more playing time . And even if you're not a junior and are just generally unhappy with playing time...

Overall, the article makes it sound like there's a >50% chance Duke will end up in a situation where we have promised too many scholarships when in reality, its < 5%. I can squint and see the possibility; it's just really, really unlikely.

[SkyBrickey]

The Ball Durham article reads like a long "sky is falling" panic attack after one disappointing exhibition game - a major overreaction in my opinion. And I don't like the negative takes on our players - particularly our freshmen this early in the season - nor the suggestion that Mark Williams should look elsewhere.

Purely based on their high school rankings and last season's performance, Carey and soph Tre Jones would be expected to turn pro. Matthew Hurt would be a late first round candidate who may or may not stay (I know some draft boards have placed him higher...). And Moore and Stanley would both be multi-year guys. I think Moore showed up on a couple of draft boards and Stanley wowed in the pre-season with his athleticism leading a lot of people to put them in the OAD camp.

With all these guys, we will see as the season plays out, but I think it's foolish to read too much into one exhibition game. Some will outperform expectations and some will underperform expectations. I would be very surprised if at least two of the five didn't enter the draft next spring. And no matter what, I think Mark Williams would see a lot of minutes next season as a freshman - and quite possibly start at the 5 for us.

[Truth&Justise]

I don't think any of the freshmen are coming back. It's the new culture of the nba (drafting on potential) and quite frankly the culture at Duke. Kids come to Duke feeling that Duke will get them to the nba after one year. I'm not sure Frank Jackson was even drafted. I don't think Wendell Moore is a OAD at somewhere like UVa. A successful program that just won a NC. But it is not their culture to send kids to the nba after one season
In the world we live in now, Kyle Singler would have probably been a first round pick. Instead, we got to have him for 4 years and he helped bring a NC to Durham after he and his peers took some major lumps early in their career. This year's freshmen remind me a lot of Scheyer, Nolan and Kyle. None of them, outside of maybe Carey, are ready for an nba roster.
And this was the case BEFORE Saturday night.

Frank Jackson was selected with the 31st pick of the 2017 NBA draft. He's carving out a nice role as the Pelican's backup point guard.

[jimsumner]

I'll not lose a second of sleep over the possibility of Duke having 14 players for 13 scholarships.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that maybe, perhaps, possibly Mike Krzyzewski's NBA contacts give him better insights into this sort of thing than random internet bloggers.

[SkyBrickey]

I'll not lose a second of sleep over the possibility of Duke having 14 players for 13 scholarships.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that maybe, perhaps, possibly Mike Krzyzewski's NBA contacts give him better insights into this sort of thing than random internet bloggers.

I agree with this. I was a bit surprised to see the Jaemyn Brakefield offer/signing when we have such an obvious need at the 5 next year and could be a little tight on schollys. But I trust the coaching staff.

[907bluedevils]

Mark Williams announces Friday, any word of a stream or anything like that?

[ChillinDuke]

DBR has been my basketball home for many years, but I will admit to straying to other sites periodically. I generally find that Ball Durham is interesting, with a different spin in some cases, but I found this link to be provocative to say the least. It's written with a "sky is falling" negative attitude, which I think is clickbait more than real opinion, but the basic premise is interesting and would love to see what the DBR experts think.

Giles argues that the stock of our current freshman class is falling, and that there's a possibility that we could end up with none of our underclassmen departing for the NBA next year, leaving us one short on scholarships for the 2020 class, assuming that we get Williams.

I think he's dramatizing for clicks--in particular, writing off Carey after one poor showing in the NW Missouri game. But it's not preposterous to argue that Hurt may not have the physical presence, that Tre may not develop an offensive game that would make him NBA-worthy, and I think even DBR opinion on the rest of the freshman is that none are NBA guarantees.

Even if only one departs, if we got both Williams and Dickinson, could there be a logjam? I hope the solution is not the bleak one that Giles suggests, which is that Joey Baker departs after getting no love this year from K.

Others have adequately addressed your main question, but since this was addressed to me I'll at least echo others' comments.

First, Ball Durham strikes me as a very "hot take"/"click bait" website. I blocked them from my phone's newsfeed months ago.

Second, while the scenario you (they?) describe is physically possible, it is such a longshot that it's really not worth giving any weight to. I expect Tre is gone regardless of his season. I expect Hurt and Carey are OAD - just look at them. So basically, all of those guys would have to stay AND we have to get Mark Williams AND no transfers AND no early graduations. That's insanely unlikely.

Carey got into foul trouble in his first exhibition game. He'll figure it out. The guy looked like a beast at Blue & White. He's very, very mobile for a guy his size, much more so than I was expecting. I'm not sure he'll be a world beater, but it's tough for me to envision scenarios where he's not OAD, even if he doesn't have an excellent year for us (which I think he will). Hurt is a mobile big with a 3pt shot. He's gotta be OAD unless he just truly wants to stay for whatever reason. And Tre - he's pressing right now, IMO. He's likely been building up this season in his head all summer long. This is his year to be the face of the team and lead us - I think he's gone no matter what.

So, yeah, I don't see a logjam at all. I wouldn't worry about it in the slightest. Unless you feel the need to. In which case. Go for it!

- Chillin

[DukieTiger]

Others have adequately addressed your main question, but since this was addressed to me I'll at least echo others' comments.

First, Ball Durham strikes me as a very "hot take"/"click bait" website. I blocked them from my phone's newsfeed months ago.

Second, while the scenario you (they?) describe is physically possible, it is such a longshot that it's really not worth giving any weight to. I expect Tre is gone regardless of his season. I expect Hurt and Carey are OAD - just look at them. So basically, all of those guys would have to stay AND we have to get Mark Williams AND no transfers AND no early graduations. That's insanely unlikely.

Carey got into foul trouble in his first exhibition game. He'll figure it out. The guy looked like a beast at Blue & White. He's very, very mobile for a guy his size, much more so than I was expecting. I'm not sure he'll be a world beater, but it's tough for me to envision scenarios where he's not OAD, even if he doesn't have an excellent year for us (which I think he will). Hurt is a mobile big with a 3pt shot. He's gotta be OAD unless he just truly wants to stay for whatever reason. And Tre - he's pressing right now, IMO. He's likely been building up this season in his head all summer long. This is his year to be the face of the team and lead us - I think he's gone no matter what.

So, yeah, I don't see a logjam at all. I wouldn't worry about it in the slightest. Unless you feel the need to. In which case. Go for it!

- Chillin

All well said- I’d just add that I’d guess the odds are better that ALL of the frosh + Tre leave than it is that none of them leave. Just the culture we’re in right now.