2020 Duke men's basketball recruiting

[907bluedevils]

Why is Kessler a likely OAD? He seems fairly average athletically. He’s not a great outside shooter. I don’t see him as being what the modern NBA is looking for in a big man. He projects as a backup center in the NBA as far as I can tell. That doesn’t seem like the profile of a OAD.

In the past few years a most of the top 15 players goto the NBA after one season. Who knows maybe he will stick around.

[scottdude8]

I think it's misleading to suggest that the strategy differs any for the 2020 class than the past classes just because the outcome has differed. Looking at the 247 duke offers list, K and staff gave out offers to recruits No. 2, No. 5, No. 6, No. 13, No. 15, No. 20, No. 26, No. 29, No.34, and No. 40*. That looks pretty similar to the last few years of recruiting targets. The commits just happen to scattered across the list than the front loaded classes we've seen lately. That said, I don't think the intent was to focus more on multi-year guys any more than they historically have, but the way things have gone with the '19-20 class and the (current) '20-21 class, that may be how things play out.

I'd be interested (in a philosophical sense, but not a practical one) to see the reaction around these parts if we see a couple of years of leaner season and postseason success but more players sticking around longer. That's been the general "hope" of many, but it's easy to say that when we've largely been a top-5, top-10 team every year with elite talent replacing elite talent.

*Duke commits bolded

ETA: Looks like 907bluedevils beats me to it...I type too slowly, it seems.

All very valid points. Here's how I'd respond: maybe I'm cynical, but I'm never 100% convinced that an offer necessarily means A) the school is "all-in" on the prospect and/or B) that the prospect is legitimately considering the school. So given our (admittedly abnormally high and probably unsustainable) success rate getting our top targets the past half-decade, the fact that we only hit on two of seven of our top-20 targets seems like an outlier, and that there may be more to the story. We definitely could've "just missed" on some of the top guys. But, perhaps K backed off on some of those guys after the offer upon a closer look. Perhaps he felt the other guys we ended up getting fit at Duke better. One other feasible explanation is that K adjusted his recruiting thinking that there may not be as many "starring roles" available in 2020-2021 based on who the program projects to return.

Again, my main point is that, based on what we know (as far as I know), these are all equally likely scenarios. We'll never know with 100% certainty what the story is with recruiting (probably nor should we, as these are personally decisions made by high-schoolers). But given that this is an outlier I'm not so sure we should dismiss it so simply as "we just missed" on some guys.

To be 100% clear, I am not saying one way or another whether this is a positive or negative development for 2020. Just that it is something that bears thinking about critically, especially as we move forward and see how the 2019 recruits look this year. It's a slightly different scenario than we've been in recently.

[Steven43]

In the past few years a most of the top 15 players goto the NBA after one season. Who knows maybe he will stick around.

Yeah, hopefully he goes to the NBA after his freshman season. I’d like UNC fans to get a more consistent taste of what Duke fans have been dealing with for YEARS with all of the OADs. It’s mentally draining to get emotionally attached to these young men only to have them abruptly leave Duke after just one season.

I don’t think I can take much more of it. I’ve seen over the years that I’ve stopped caring as much as I used to. It’s probably a defense mechanism of sorts.

[English]

All very valid points. Here's how I'd respond: maybe I'm cynical, but I'm never 100% convinced that an offer necessarily means A) the school is "all-in" on the prospect and/or B) that the prospect is legitimately considering the school. So given our (admittedly abnormally high and probably unsustainable) success rate getting our top targets the past half-decade, the fact that we only hit on two of seven of our top-20 targets seems like an outlier, and that there may be more to the story. We definitely could've "just missed" on some of the top guys. But, perhaps K backed off on some of those guys after the offer upon a closer look. Perhaps he felt the other guys we ended up getting fit at Duke better. One other feasible explanation is that K adjusted his recruiting thinking that there may not be as many "starring roles" available in 2020-2021 based on who the program projects to return.

Again, my main point is that, based on what we know (as far as I know), these are all equally likely scenarios. We'll never know with 100% certainty what the story is with recruiting (probably nor should we, as these are personally decisions made by high-schoolers). But given that this is an outlier I'm not so sure we should dismiss it so simply as "we just missed" on some guys.

To be 100% clear, I am not saying one way or another whether this is a positive or negative development for 2020. Just that it is something that bears thinking about critically, especially as we move forward and see how the 2019 recruits look this year. It's a slightly different scenario than we've been in recently.

I'm not sure I'd agree that it's equally likely that K didn't want four top-15 recruits, but instead wanted two guys at the back end of the top-40 because they fit what might be the roster twelve months from now, but it's possible.

For context, when we lost three players in the top-10 of the NBA draft and had what you might call an exodus of rotation minutes out the door last season, here's the recruiting map for Duke offers: No. 3, No. 4, No. 6, No. 7, No. 9, No. 12, No. 17, No. 22, No. 27, No. 29, No. 37, No. 38, No. 200*^.

Does that look appreciably different than our current recruiting picture, besides more offers? Not to my eye. And that was a drastically different situation where the coaching staff knew they didn't have much coming back. Now, you could make the argument that the staff has changed their recruiting strategy, but I suspect (without doing the legwork right now) that these two classes' recruiting doesn't diverge much from the earlier classes of the last decade, but the results do.

*Duke commits bolded
^Duke commits who were released from commitment italicized

[scottdude8]

I'm not sure I'd agree that it's equally likely that K didn't want four top-15 recruits, but instead wanted two guys at the back end of the top-40 because they fit what might be the roster twelve months from now, but it's possible.

For context, when we lost three players in the top-10 of the NBA draft and had what you might call an exodus of rotation minutes out the door last season, here's the recruiting map for Duke offers: No. 3, No. 4, No. 6, No. 7, No. 9, No. 12, No. 17, No. 22, No. 27, No. 29, No. 37, No. 38, No. 200*^.

Does that look appreciably different than our current recruiting picture, besides more offers? Not to my eye. And that was a drastically different situation where the coaching staff knew they didn't have much coming back. Now, you could make the argument that the staff has changed their recruiting strategy, but I suspect (without doing the legwork right now) that these two classes' recruiting doesn't diverge much from the earlier classes of the last decade, but the results do.

*Duke commits bolded
^Duke commits who were released from commitment italicized

That's a VERY good point that I hadn't really considered! I also hadn't taken into account the fact that Carey's stock fell so much by the end of the year (I was still thinking about him as the top-5 recruit he had been when he committed). I also thought Moore was rated higher than that, so I probably should've checked my facts a bit more, haha.

With that concession aside, this year is a bit different than in years past in the sense that having Tre, Javin, and Jack (three of our primary rotation players, including one star) back is something that hasn't happened in the past few years (last year the only rotation players returning were Javin and Marques, both of whom had very limited roles the previous year; the year before it was really only Grayson (as Javin didn't play enough his freshman year to really be called a rotation player); the year before that was an exception with Grayson, Amile, Matt, Luke returning; finally, the year before that the only true rotation player returning was Matt, since Grayson didn't really earn rotation minutes until late in the year, Amile was injured, and Marshall stepped into a very new role). So I think you could argue that there are more similarities between the 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes, and the scenarios they find themselves in as far as potential returnees, than there are between the 2015-2018 classes.

Again, all of this is just a quibble, nothing more. But as a scientist, I would probably deem this shift, both in the returning production and the pure "rating" of the incoming recruits, as "statistically significant". Now whether there was a real cause to that significant change, or whether its just a natural fluctuation, is what would then need to be debated, and I think is being debated. I'm not saying 100% that I think a "new strategy" is at play, but to me the history shows that's a non-zero possibility.

[Pghdukie]

Did I just hear correctly that Caleb Love committed to the Cheats ?

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Did I just hear correctly that Caleb Love committed to the Cheats ?

Yes.

This is not intended to be snarky. But this is the Duke 2020 recruiting thread. Duke did not even offer Caleb Love. I’d rather not see us wring our hands over other schools’ (or even unc’s) recruits.

[arnie]

Did I just hear correctly that Caleb Love committed to the Cheats ?

Yep, should be a 4 year starter for the Cheats after his redshirt year.

[UrinalCake]

Roy sure has changed his tune, recruiting kids who will only be there for one year and take four classes. It used to be he would only bring in players who would stay for four years and take zero classes.

[devildeac]

Roy sure has changed his tune, recruiting kids who will only be there for one year and take four classes. It used to be he would only bring in players who would stay for four years and take zero classes.

That's a perfect example of "u"nc math.

[mkirsh]

Did I just hear correctly that Caleb Love committed to the Cheats ?

There is a real recruiting halo effect of winning a championship. I recall stories of Coach K calling recruits like Can Reddish from the locker room celebration saying something like “we just won the national championship and want you to be a part of this” or something to that effect. I’m sure UNCs 2017 title is helping them as well. Like a bad rash that won’t go away...

[mkirsh]

Roy sure has changed his tune, recruiting kids who will only be there for one year and take four classes. It used to be he would only bring in players who would stay for four years and take zero classes.

Can’t spread sporks but this is amazing!

[devildeac]

Can’t spread sporks but this is amazing!

I covered the spread for you...

[left_hook_lacey]

I covered the spread for you...

Devildeac, you're being paged in the Presidential Election thread concerning Bernie Sanders' heart troubles.

Also, recruits!!! I hope we get em. There, I'm on topic.

[devildeac]

Devildeac, you're being paged in the Presidential Election thread concerning Bernie Sanders' heart troubles.

Also, recruits!!! I hope we get em. There, I'm on topic.

I'd go check but:

1. Too dangerous in that thread-might get assigned "vacation/holiday" time.
2. Might be fake news .

[907bluedevils]

Mark Williams and Hunter Dickinson updates.

https://stockrisers.com/2019/10/02/f...s-visit-dates/

https://247sports.com/college/duke/A...ils-136302068/

[DavidBenAkiva]

Mark Williams and Hunter Dickinson updates.

https://stockrisers.com/2019/10/02/f...s-visit-dates/

https://247sports.com/college/duke/A...ils-136302068/

Regarding Dickinson, it says a lot that the big man has 1 official visit remaining and he's working to set it up with Duke.

Duke needs bodies in both the near and long term. It's not ideal to rely on 2 freshmen as centers, but both Williams and Dickinson offer size, upside, and might each be multi-year guys. Williams seems a little more raw on offense with better rebounding and shot blocking skills while Dickson is not quite as athletic but offers some offensive skills. Kind of an offense/defense pairing, if you will. It could work for a couple of years as they both refine their bodies and games.

[jipops]

Regarding Dickinson, it says a lot that the big man has 1 official visit remaining and he's working to set it up with Duke.

Duke needs bodies in both the near and long term. It's not ideal to rely on 2 freshmen as centers, but both Williams and Dickinson offer size, upside, and might each be multi-year guys. Williams seems a little more raw on offense with better rebounding and shot blocking skills while Dickson is not quite as athletic but offers some offensive skills. Kind of an offense/defense pairing, if you will. It could work for a couple of years as they both refine their bodies and games.

I’m hoping that the pursuit of Dickinson isn’t at all a sign that Mark Williams has cooled. Dickinson appears to have some level of skill on offense but looks like Williams has potential to make a much bigger impact defensively and possibly sooner. It also looks like Williams is a good passing big man. Even if Duke does land both, we’re not likely to be getting much production from the frontcourt in 20-21. I don’t see either one of these guys playing much, but we’ll need some bodies there. This could be a familiar Duke team that has pretty much all its offense coming from the perimeter.

[Nugget]

I’m hoping that the pursuit of Dickinson isn’t at all a sign that Mark Williams has cooled.

This seems unlikely to me. It's been clear for a while that we were targeting two big men for this class given the barren cupboard of frontcourt players. I think the much more likely inference is that the staff expected to land Kessler and pursuit of Dickinson is a response to his surprise commitment to the Heels.

[SkyBrickey]

I don’t see either one of these guys playing much, but we’ll need some bodies there.

These would be our only two big men on the roster if Carey is OAD as expected. They would be playing plenty - not for their offense but out of necessity for their rebounding and defense. It’s not ideal but it’s where we are with the roster and this class.

I think Mark Williams is ahead in both rebounding and defense. He’s an absolutely critical recruit for us. The good news is that he seems like a great fit on the court and academically - hopefully he’s excited at the prospect of playing significant minutes as a freshman.