2020 Duke men's basketball recruiting

[TruBlu]

Question: At what point does the "grandmother factor" propel Michael Savarino onto the court?

Next year. He’s redshirted this year. (But so was Joey last year.)

[Troublemaker]

Tell that to the Houston Rockets. If we have enough shooting, maybe we should just play like them next year: 5 out and just have a wide open lane for Roach, Johnson, and Steward to attack the paint and kick out for 3s.

I'm only half-joking . . . if Brakefield is strong enough to somewhat defend bigger guys, he's got a good enough jump shot to pull them out of the paint and be the PJ Tucker facsimile in that analogy.

I wouldn't consider that a joke (or even half-joke). With all the expected returnees, it makes sense to go 5-out.

Assuming some frosh-to-soph jumps, I think a Steward-Stanley-Moore-Hurt-Johnson lineup would be excellent and much tougher to guard than this year's team.

If one believes Stanley is NBA-bound, then insert Roach in his place or possibly an improved Joey Baker for even more shooting.

I would agree that not having a second center no longer concerns me. We're going to have some returnees most likely, and it's time to get creative with the lineups.

[jv001]

I wouldn't consider that a joke (or even half-joke). With all the expected returnees, it makes sense to go 5-out.

Assuming some frosh-to-soph jumps, I think a Steward-Stanley-Moore-Hurt-Johnson lineup would be excellent and much tougher to guard than this year's team.

If one believes Stanley is NBA-bound, then insert Roach in his place or possibly an improved Joey Baker for even more shooting.

I would agree that not having a second center no longer concerns me. We're going to have some returnees most likely, and it's time to get creative with the lineups.

Who would handle the point? Certainly not Moore unless he improves tremendously in his ball handling and decision making. I think Roach starts.

GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

Who would handle the point? Certainly not Moore unless he improves tremendously in his ball handling and decision making. I think Roach starts.

GoDuke!

Johnson on the fast break. Steward and Moore in the halfcourt.

I could also see Roach starting, sure.

[arnie]

Question: At what point does the "grandmother factor" propel Michael Savarino onto the court?

Are we sure he’s not a starter next year😀

[UrinalCake]

I’m also not too worried about the lack of a backup 5. There aren’t that many elite centers in the college game that we’d have to face, and Mark Williams has been coming on strong lately. The small lineup with five shooters/slashers would put up a ton of points. Sure it’d be awesome to have JRob back for another year, but we’ll be fine. I definitely do NOT see us playing Jalen Johnson at the 5, or Kuminga if he were to somehow come early. It will be Williams, Coleman, and maybe Hurt.

[Troublemaker]

I definitely do NOT see us playing Jalen Johnson at the 5, or Kuminga if he were to somehow come early. It will be Williams, Coleman, and maybe Hurt.

I think you're severely underestimating the odds of Williams being the backup 5. Historically, a freshman center ranked where Williams is (#29 in 247's composite ranking) does not start. He often isn't even in the rotation.

As for whether Hurt or Johnson plays the 5 (i.e. guards opposing centers), I don't think I really care either way. As long as people are aware of the possibility that those two will be our starting "forwards" alongside three other perimeter players, I'm good. Once you lay out the complete roster and play around with possible lineups and rotations, 2 forwards + 3 perimeter players is how the minutes begin to make sense. Otherwise, you'll have unrealistically low minutes projections for several perimeter players. This is especially the case if Cassius returns alongside Wendell and Matthew.

Tying it back to recruiting, we don't need another center.

[GGLC]

I'm going to assume that Hurt, Stanley, and Moore are all gone until proven otherwise. That's the way it works for us lately.

[Troublemaker]

I'm going to assume that Hurt, Stanley, and Moore are all gone until proven otherwise. That's the way it works for us lately.

Yep, no issues with that. I've always backed lowering expectations so you can't be disappointed.

[Saratoga2]

I think you're severely underestimating the odds of Williams being the backup 5. Historically, a freshman center ranked where Williams is (#29 in 247's composite ranking) does not start. He often isn't even in the rotation.

As for whether Hurt or Johnson plays the 5 (i.e. guards opposing centers), I don't think I really care either way. As long as people are aware of the possibility that those two will be our starting "forwards" alongside three other perimeter players, I'm good. Once you lay out the complete roster and play around with possible lineups and rotations, 2 forwards + 3 perimeter players is how the minutes begin to make sense. Otherwise, you'll have unrealistically low minutes projections for several perimeter players. This is especially the case if Cassius returns alongside Wendell and Matthew.

Tying it back to recruiting, we don't need another center.

And yet didn't coach K try to recruit Walker Kessler who went to UNC? He must of thought we could use another center.

[Saratoga2]

Yep, no issues with that. I've always backed lowering expectations so you can't be disappointed.

Zaire Williams is still available but we probably don't need another wing.

[Troublemaker]

And yet didn't coach K try to recruit Walker Kessler who went to UNC? He must of thought we could use another center.

That was a long time ago, way before it seemed likely that Hurt and Moore would return, and possibly Stanley, too. Now we're going to have a bevy of perimeter players that need to play, and the forwards will have to play "up" a bit.

[JasonEvans]

And yet didn't coach K try to recruit Walker Kessler who went to UNC? He must of thought we could use another center.

First of all, K recruit the kids he likes best and he figures out the positions/playing time later. Also worth noting that he was after Kessler before he closed on Williams. If we had landed Kessler, K might have backed off some of the other big man prospects.

Personally, I would sorta like to see what Duke would look like with a 5-out lineup. That is what basketball is increasingly moving toward and having fewer bodies inside will free up driving lanes for the many slasher we will have next season.

[English]

First of all, K recruit the kids he likes best and he figures out the positions/playing time later. Also worth noting that he was after Kessler before he closed on Williams. If we had landed Kessler, K might have backed off some of the other big man prospects.

Personally, I would sorta like to see what Duke would look like with a 5-out lineup. That is what basketball is increasingly moving toward and having fewer bodies inside will free up driving lanes for the many slasher we will have next season.

I mostly agree with your point, but that's predicated on having enough shooting on the perimeter to draw defenders away from the paint. We had plenty of slashers on last season's team, but teams packed the paint and dared us to shoot (which was an adventure). Obviously we had incredible talent and had great overall success, but having 1-2 more reliable shooters would've really opened things up for Zion, RJ, Cam, etc. to penetrate. A 5-out lineup doesn't free up the lane if 1-3 of those guys is no threat to hit from at least midrange.

How do we project as a shooting team next season?

[simplyluvin]

Who would handle the point? Certainly not Moore unless he improves tremendously in his ball handling and decision making. I think Roach starts.

GoDuke!

We need a PG. It's Roach unless obviously Tre comes back. While Tre leaving is certainly a likelihood, I hold out a little hope that the desire to match his brother's legacy may bring him back for one more year (assuming we don't win the title this year).

[UrinalCake]

And yet didn't coach K try to recruit Walker Kessler who went to UNC? He must of thought we could use another center.

I think Troublemaker meant to say that I was OVERestimating Williams. Which is certainly possible. Having another center on the roster would be great, but since we don’t I have faith in K to mold the roster around the pieces we do have. I’m also expecting at least one of Moore/Hurt to return but I’ve definitely been wrong before.

[Jaks19]

Stranger things have happened, but I feel that Tre, Vernon and Stanley are all for sure not going to be back at Duke. Hurt is 75-25 leaving and Moore is 50-50. I my gut I am prepared for Hurt to leave as well and for Moore to come back.

As far as 2020 class, Roach will be the starting PG with JGold and Steward getting some time facilitating the offense too. Roach has a lot of Tre in his game for he will throw one down when he has the chance too, he has a good mid range game and he gets into the lane on dribble penetration. He is also not known for his 3 pt shooting. However, in Roach's most recent blog, he did state that his shooting confidence and making shots has improved since he has come back from the injury.

Steward has turned up his game a notch too and has excelled in head to head match ups with other elite guards. What might determine how well he does at Duke is how well he is able to withstand the physical demands in the game. Overall, DJ is very talented and that's why he is a 5 star player. He will be an impact at Duke just in his ability to score.

If you don't think Williams might not start, then you are a tad off and that might have to do with if Hurt returned or not. I get it, but the Williams is a kid that does everything that K likes in hustle, rebounding, protecting the rim and can score around the basket. If Hurt is not back, look for Williams to start at the 5 and even if Hurt is back, there si a good chance Williams starts.

Johnson is a no brainer starter for Duke. at 6-9 220 he can play the 3 or 4 and his play making ability is excellent.

The 2 guys that most want to ponder about are Brakefield and Coleman.
Brakefield at one time in his HS career was very highly rated, I believe he was in the top 10 as a Soph (?). HIs is 6-9 200 and he is motivated. I feel he will be the FR that surprises the most much like Stanley did this year.
Coleman on the other hand, is a team guy that rebounds and plays with a lot of energy. If it is true that he is 6-8 240, he will get a change to help at the 5.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I mostly agree with your point, but that's predicated on having enough shooting on the perimeter to draw defenders away from the paint. We had plenty of slashers on last season's team, but teams packed the paint and dared us to shoot (which was an adventure). Obviously we had incredible talent and had great overall success, but having 1-2 more reliable shooters would've really opened things up for Zion, RJ, Cam, etc. to penetrate. A 5-out lineup doesn't free up the lane if 1-3 of those guys is no threat to hit from at least midrange.

How do we project as a shooting team next season?

My personal take is that we could be a better shooting team next season than this one.

If AOC and Baker return (and AOC returns to form as a shooter) that's two good experienced shooters off the bench.

Goldwire has improved leaps and bounds this year. If he just maintains his shooting from this year (36.2% on 47 attempts), that's a huge lift.

If Hurt returns, then we have an excellent stretch big as I expect he would take a lot more shots on offense next season.

Moore is another guy that I expect to see improve as a shooter, both in volume and success. He's only attempted 19 3's on the year, hitting 4 for a 21.1% success rate. But he's hitting 80% from the free throw line and was a similar FT shooter in high school. The jumper is going to start falling eventually. In body and style of play, Moore was compared to Mikal Bridges of Villanova a lot. Lo and behold, Bridges shot around 80% from the FT line in his freshman year was not particularly accurate behind the line. Of course, Bridges made more than 70% of his shots inside the arc, so the comparison falls apart there. But in terms of his jumper, it is not unusual to see a guy with a good FT shot also become a good 3-point shooter. Jayson Tatum dud the same thing.

Of the incoming freshman, DJ Steward is considered a high-level shooter. I think he sees a lot of playing time next year. I would rate the rest of the group, in terms of best to worst shooter, in the following order: Brakefield, Roach, Johnson, Coleman, and Williams.

Overall, the only one I expect to be a non-shooter next season is Mark Williams. We might not see Coleman get much PT or take many jumpers. Other than those two, I expect we'll see a team willing to take a jumper. If Hurt, Baker, and Moore are on the floor with Johnson and Roach is average as a shooter for his position, Duke could be quite deadly on offense.

[BD80]

Question: At what point does the "grandmother factor" propel Michael Savarino onto the court?

Are we sure he’s not a starter next year😀

And if you question the decision, look up to the rafters!

[Saratoga2]

We need a PG. It's Roach unless obviously Tre comes back. While Tre leaving is certainly a likelihood, I hold out a little hope that the desire to match his brother's legacy may bring him back for one more year (assuming we don't win the title this year).

Golldwire has made great strides this year. He along with Roach will probably be adequate to cover ball handling. If Moore comes back, he may also show improvement. His handle isn't bad, it his decision making and loss of concentration that has led to many of his turnovers.