CBS: Ranking all of Duke's 16 OAD Players

[phaedrus]

That being said, if we did win the title in 2017, our 2018 team might have looked a lot different too. I'd guess Allen would have gone pro with that second title. And then we'd be REALLY thin on the perimeter. So it might have been a bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I'd steal an Elite Eight from Peter to pay Paul a title.

[CDu]

I'd steal an Elite Eight from Peter to pay Paul a title.

Well sure. But no guarantee the 2017 team wins it all with Giles healthy. Could have just as easily ended up like this year. Conversely, if one more shot goes in for us, we might have won it this year.

I guess I should have clarified that even a deep tourney run might have decimated this year’s roster.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Yeah, I think a lot of things went wrong in 2017 that have unfairly marred folks' opinions of one-and-dones. The injuries to Giles and the injury and illness for Bolden are a big part of that. Jefferson's injury and Allen's injury/suspension also cost us games. Tatum's injury. Arguably Coach K's surgery may have cost us as well. Obviously Giles' injury was the biggest detriment as he was just never the player that he was in high school while at Duke. Last year's team was basically the borderline worst-case scenario in terms of health, which had nothing to do with one-and-dones.

If Giles is healthy, we become a MUCH more dynamic team. I'm not sure if our defense ever gets great, but we'd be even more deadly offensively.
Don't know if we would have won the title, but we'd have likely been a 1 seed instead of a 2 seed, and we'd have been much more likely to make the Final Four.

That being said, if we did win the title in 2017, our 2018 team might have looked a lot different too. I'd guess Allen would have gone pro with that second title. And then we'd be REALLY thin on the perimeter. So it might have been a bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Agreed with all, including your last paragraph...you can't make one change in a vacuum...so you throw a healthy Giles into the mix, and he gets minutes and touches, they win the title maybe......but maybe Luke and Frank would've gotten less touches and stayed...for example. Fun and frustrating to think about.

[JNort]

Wonder how they justified these ranking? Mine would be much different I think.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Wonder how they justified these ranking? Mine would be much different I think.

Dice roll? Dart board?

Hard to tell what their criteria was... Number of wins? Impressive stats? Importance to the team? Banners? Sheer talent?

[sagegrouse]

Dice roll? Dart board?

Hard to tell what their criteria was... Number of wins? Impressive stats? Importance to the team? Banners? Sheer talent?

The key thing to me was that the ranking was based their college performance and contribution to the team. Those unable to play much are at the bottom.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The key thing to me was that the ranking was based their college performance and contribution to the team. Those unable to play much are at the bottom.

I suspect that if we were to compile a list here on DBR, poor Harry Giles would be last on all but one ballot.

[Indoor66]

Well, one does not rate actual performance on "potential" still not realized a year later...

[JNort]

The key thing to me was that the ranking was based their college performance and contribution to the team. Those unable to play much are at the bottom.

Yeah but Kyrie is up there... shouldn't he then be back with Giles?

[CDu]

Yeah but Kyrie is up there... shouldn't he then be back with Giles?

That gets into the nuance of any list like this. Irving missed a bunch of games, but he played really really well when he was on the court (both before and after injury). Giles just wasn't physically able to play well.

If Irving had been healthy all year, he'd have been in the top 5 (probably top 3). His ranking of 11 there is the penalty for missing so much time.

[Steven43]

Conversely, if one more shot goes in for us, we might have won it this year.

Very unlikely Duke would have come close to beating Villanova. They destroyed Kansas while Duke looked to be about the equal of the Jayhawks throughout the entire game. The Blue Devils probably had more overall talent than Kansas, but were clearly lacking in solid, reliable PG play and 3-point shooting, particularity in the clutch. Additionally, the zone defense K employed was substandard and ineffective. Time and time again the Jayhawks were able to pass it inside for clean, easy looks at the basket. Duke also did a mediocre (at best) job of defending their three-point shooters. It was probably just due to an overall talent advantage that Duke was even able to get the game to overtime.

Regardless, Villanova—who has a very talented roster near the level of Duke’s—would have handily beaten our Devils. In this tournament Nova’s defense, three-point shooting, teamwork, and coaching just seemed a clear cut above everybody else, including Duke. If Grayson’s shot had gone in it would have only delayed the inevitable.

[sagegrouse]

Recognition as All-American or All-ACC? Marvin, Jah and Jabari were all first-team All-American and occupy the top three spots. Of the seven players who were neither A-A or All-ACC, Justise ranks highest at #8. Of the four players who were first-team All-ACC, Austin ranks lowest at #9.

Well, K said that by the end of the 2015 season, Justise was our best player. Counts for something.

[CDu]

Very unlikely Duke would have come close to beating Villanova. They destroyed Kansas while Duke looked to be about the equal of the Jayhawks throughout the entire game. The Blue Devils probably had more overall talent than Kansas, but were clearly lacking in solid, reliable PG play and 3-point shooting, particularity in the clutch. Additionally, the zone defense K employed was substandard and ineffective. Time and time again the Jayhawks were able to pass it inside for clean, easy looks at the basket. Duke also did a mediocre (at best) job of defending their three-point shooters. It was probably just due to an overall talent advantage that Duke was even able to get the game to overtime.

Regardless, Villanova—who has a very talented roster near the level of Duke’s—would have handily beaten our Devils. In this tournament Nova’s defense, three-point shooting, teamwork, and coaching just seemed a clear cut above everybody else, including Duke. If Grayson’s shot had gone in it would have only delayed the inevitable.

I don't think you can apply the transitive property like that. Kansas was basically a poor man's Villanova. So they were going to get killed by Villanova. I don't know what the outcome would have been, but I think it would have been MUCH closer than the Kansas game. And I'd have given Duke a reasonable chance, with another week to work on the zone, of beating Villanova. As you mentioned, we'd have a substantial talent edge. And hopefully we wouldn't shoot nearly as poorly against Villanova as we did against Kansas. Because the only reason that Kansas game was even close was because we couldn't hit ANYTHING from 3, and because Carter was out of the game for most of it. If either of those things is different, we probably blow Kansas out.

[UrinalCake]

His ranking of 11 there is the penalty for missing so much time.

Even with all that missed time, he still won more tournament games than three players ranked above him (Rivers, Parker, Tatum) and as many as Ingram. IMO Irving should be ranked around 5 on this completely arbitrary list.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

That gets into the nuance of any list like this. Irving missed a bunch of games, but he played really really well when he was on the court (both before and after injury). Giles just wasn't physically able to play well.

If Irving had been healthy all year, he'd have been in the top 5 (probably top 3). His ranking of 11 there is the penalty for missing so much time.

I know there's no way to prove any of this, but I suspect Irving would have been our greatest OAD had the infamous turf toe not encroached on his excellence. He was nearly unguardable, and he would have had six assists a night lobbing to various Plumlees for dunks.

[CDu]

I know there's no way to prove any of this, but I suspect Irving would have been our greatest OAD had the infamous turf toe not encroached on his excellence. He was nearly unguardable, and he would have had six assists a night lobbing to various Plumlees for dunks.

Maybe. Worth noting that he averaged only 4 assists per game at Duke, and has rarely average 6 assists per game in the NBA (with more minutes per game).

He would certainly be in the conversation for best OAD, but I suspect it would be more in the 20 pts, 4 asts range.

[NSDukeFan]

Maybe. Worth noting that he averaged only 4 assists per game at Duke, and has rarely average 6 assists per game in the NBA (with more minutes per game).

He would certainly be in the conversation for best OAD, but I suspect it would be more in the 20 pts, 4 asts range.

But no Plumlee dunking company to pass to 😀

[lotusland]

I know there's no way to prove any of this, but I suspect Irving would have been our greatest OAD had the infamous turf toe not encroached on his excellence. He was nearly unguardable, and he would have had six assists a night lobbing to various Plumlees for dunks.

Kyrie got to dazzle against the Early non-conference schedule. He’d have probably hit a wall and struggled in a couple of poor shooting ACC games and dulled the luster a little. No doubt the talent was real as evidenced by his NBA career but Kyrie never faced the ACC meat grinder.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Kyrie got to dazzle against the Early non-conference schedule. He’d have probably hit a wall and struggled in a couple of poor shooting ACC games and dulled the luster a little. No doubt the talent was real as evidenced by his NBA career but Kyrie never faced the ACC meat grinder.

Early non conference opponents like Michigan State and Butler???

The "wall" that Kyrie might or might not have hit is also the same wall for the other 15 people he is compared to.

[lotusland]

Early non conference opponents like Michigan State and Butler???

The "wall" that Kyrie might or might not have hit is also the same wall for the other 15 people he is compared to.

Yeah that was my point. Other folks played through it. Kyrie didn’t. What am I missing?