Carter considering coming back?!?!?! (UPDATE: He went to the NBA)

[Duke76]

That is true, but we were a bit unlucky. Similarly-ranked Collin Sexton played very well last season, for example, and a couple of PGs ranked below Trevon outplayed him as well.

I'm on board with cautious optimism and letting the freshmen prove it, though. And I would agree that Wendell should make a decision independent of Tre Jones' highlight videos :-)

yea well that was a little tongue and cheek to introduce that video from my perspective and... after this year I too am cautiously, cautiously excited

[plimnko]

I don't think I ever said that about Zion... I guess the point you're trying to make is that most people thought Zion was going to Clemson, and he chose Duke... Similarly most people think Carter is entering the NBA Draft, so...

Your argument doesn't make sense. Most people thought Bagley, Trent, and Duval were 1-and-done'ers, and they were. When Wendell came to Duke, it was with the understanding that he would be here for 1 year, and 1 year only. We as fans understand this, and as much as we hate the 1-and-done compared with the good ol' days (I relish the years I was at Duke, 19888-1992, and all players were 4-year players), it is the new normal. Until the rules change, we will continue to go after and get 1-and-done players. I would love to see the rules change to allow players to jump to the NBA without attending college, and requiring those that do attend college to stay for a minimum of 2 years.

But with regards to Wendell, he is gone. I enjoyed watching him at Duke, and wish him the best in the NBA.

i'm not saying you said ANYTHING, but people change their minds all the time for their own reasons . i don't think he's coming back either, but ......me might. like i didn't think williamson was coming to duke, but he is.

[Fish80]

This thread is 8 pages long because nobody thinks there's a chance Carter comes back, amirite?

Anyone who thinks the probability that Carter comes back is greater than 0.001 has a great chance of out-smoking Snoop Dogg.

The probability that Carter comes back is actually closer to 50%. It's binary. He comes back. Or he doesn't. 50/50. Q.E.D.

[Duke95]

The probability that Carter comes back is actually closer to 50%. It's binary. He comes back. Or he doesn't. 50/50. Q.E.D.

LOL.

Anyway, while we're pondering low-probability outcomes, maybe Philly gets one of the top 3 picks, which will then go to the Celtics and they choose Bagley. It would make me enormously happy to see Kyrie, Tatum, and Bagley playing for Boston next year.

[Fish80]

[CODE][/CODE] 

LOL.

Anyway, while we're pondering low-probability outcomes, maybe Philly gets one of the top 3 picks, which will then go to the Celtics and they choose Bagley. It would make me enormously happy to see Kyrie, Tatum, and Bagley playing for Boston next year.

Now that's a fantasy worth having! And then, after Carter leads us to the 2019 National Championship, he too joins the Celtics!

[Acymetric]

Sullinger? Really? I completely agree with Barnes, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo, and I'd add Bridges (surefire lottery). But I'm not sold on Sully.

Man, if those are the names you listed, I'd advise Carter to go. Where's the upside? Griffin is really about it... (the Magic loooooved Smart. They may have taken him with the #2 pick: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/...c-marcus-smart)

Why aren't you sold on Sullinger? General thought was he would be a top 5 pick in 2011 if he declared...

[Duke95]

[CODE][/CODE] 

Now that's a fantasy worth having! And then, after Carter leads us to the 2019 National Championship, he too joins the Celtics!

That last one might be too far-fetched, as I'm hoping that the (albeit unlikely) addition of Bagley will propel the Celtics to the NBA title next year.

[CDu]

Why aren't you sold on Sullinger? General thought was he would be a top 5 pick in 2011 if he declared...

Yeah, I suspect there's some hindsight revision of where Sullinger was based on where he wound up getting drafted the next year and how, umm, not well his NBA career has gone. But it was a pretty big surprise for him to return for his sophomore year.

[LasVegas]

Sullinger was an animal. 17 and 10 as a freshman with All American honors. I was shocked when he returned because of home dominant he was. One of the main reasons he fell so far in the draft was because of his back.

[kAzE]

LOL.

Anyway, while we're pondering low-probability outcomes, maybe Philly gets one of the top 3 picks, which will then go to the Celtics and they choose Bagley. It would make me enormously happy to see Kyrie, Tatum, and Bagley playing for Boston next year.

Boston only has a tiny chance (2.9%) to get this pick. The pick that the Sixers traded in the Fultz/Tatum swap belonged to the Lakers, and only would go to the Celtics if it's between #2 and #5 (not top 3). The Lakers were too good, so the pick will likely go to the 76ers this year. It has a 87.0% chance to be the 10th overall pick.

The Celtics will instead get the Kings' pick next year, which could actually turn out to be a great pick.

[CDu]

Boston only has a tiny chance (2.9%) to get this pick. The pick that the Sixers traded in the Fultz/Tatum swap belonged to the Lakers, and only would go to the Celtics if it's between #2 and #5 (not top 3). The Lakers were too good, so the pick will likely go to the 76ers this year. It has a 87.0% chance to be the 10th overall pick.

The Celtics will instead get the Kings' pick next year, which could actually turn out to be a great pick.

To be fair, he or she did say "while we are pondering low-probability outcomes..."

I would say Boston has a better chance of getting the Lakers' pick this year than Duke has of having Carter on the floor next year.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

That last one might be too far-fetched, as I'm hoping that the (albeit unlikely) addition of Bagley will propel the Celtics to the NBA title next year.

Same as the addition of Bagley would propel Duke to the 2018 NCAA championship?

[BD80]

Boston only has a tiny chance (2.9%) to get this pick. The pick that the Sixers traded in the Fultz/Tatum swap belonged to the Lakers, and only would go to the Celtics if it's between #2 and #5 (not top 3). The Lakers were too good, so the pick will likely go to the 76ers this year. It has a 87.0% chance to be the 10th overall pick.

The Celtics will instead get the Kings' pick next year, which could actually turn out to be a great pick.

Which the Celts will trade with Jalen Brown and Al Horford to the Spurs for Kawhi Leonard.

[UrinalCake]

Another article with some more details on the decision being weighed by Carter and his parents:

link

[kAzE]

Which the Celts will trade with Jalen Brown and Al Horford to the Spurs for Kawhi Leonard.

I also think the Celtics will try to use the pick in a trade, but the Spurs would never do that. Horford is way too big of a cap hit. They will ask for Jayson Tatum AND Jaylen Brown, with the King's pick. The Celtics will say no, and the trade won't happen.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Another article with some more details on the decision being weighed by Carter and his parents:

link

Thanks but could you try a little harder to keep us off topic?

[Acymetric]

Thanks but could you try a little harder to keep us off topic?

I got you. We need to re-install the track at Wallace Wade!

In all seriousness, I like the perspective in that article...I think the last line sums it up pretty well!

[mr. synellinden]

Another article with some more details on the decision being weighed by Carter and his parents:

link

Thanks for sharing that. Certainly puts more color on what’s going on - the tug between head and heart sounds like it’s real. Those in this thread who are saying there is absolutely no chance he returns are wrong in my opinion. It sounds like he’s really thinking about it. He’s interviewed agents. He’s a sure top 10 pick. There should be absolutely no hesitation/delay if he really weren’t considering staying. One thing that is clear is that there are no 2019 big man prospects that would be ranked ahead of him today. And there are at least 3 in this draft - Ayton, Bamba and Bagley. There is a very real chance he goes top 3 next year and would be the first big man picked. Especially if he even just maintains his 3 pt shooting percentage - if he shows he can regularly hit threes, he will be the first pick in the draft, I think. I think this is a real decision. I still think he’s more likely than not to go, but I would not be shocked like others if he stayed. I’d put the odds at 15% that he stays. About the same as a 2 seed beating a 15.

[Acymetric]

Thanks for sharing that. Certainly puts more color on what’s going on - the tug between head and heart sounds like it’s real. Those in this thread who are saying there is absolutely no chance he returns are wrong in my opinion. It sounds like he’s really thinking about it. He’s interviewed agents. He’s a sure top 10 pick. There should be absolutely no hesitation/delay if he really weren’t considering staying. One thing that is clear is that there are no 2019 big man prospects that would be ranked ahead of him today. And there are at least 3 in this draft - Ayton, Bamba and Bagley. There is a very real chance he goes top 3 next year and would be the first big man picked. Especially if he even just maintains his 3 pt shooting percentage - if he shows he can regularly hit threes, he will be the first pick in the draft, I think. I think this is a real decision. I still think he’s more likely than not to go, but I would not be shocked like others if he stayed. I’d put the odds at 15% that he stays. About the same as a 2 seed beating a 15.

Might want to take those seeds, flip them and reverse them.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I agree with everyone that the chances of Carter returning are virtually zero. That being said, does anyone know how the insurance policies that college players get work? I assume the most standard type is lost earnings due to a major injury. Is there a policy for "lost earnings because he played much worse his sophomore year and thus his draft stock dropped?" If the second type of policy was available, returning for another year is much more likely than if he can only insure himself for injury.