Duval officially declares for the draft.

[kshepinthehouse]

The calculus in most players' minds used to be go if you are a lottery pick. Then, it became to go if you are a clear first round pick. Now, it seems to be to go if you may get drafted at all. Duval is a tough case because the projections for him vary so widely, from mid-1st round to mid-2nd round. If the latter, I think the better decision financially could be to return. Assuming he could improve markedly on his weaknesses, which I believe he would, his strengths could allow him to leap towards the lottery. There's always a downside risk, but I think Duval had more of an upside opportunity if he had returned than any of the other freshmen did. Either way, I think he'll be fine because he has the talent to stick in the league and make more money playing a game than most of us ever will make.

The reality is that very few players of any significant talent these days -- Allen may have been one of the last exceptions -- dream of playing at Duke or other big-time schools for 4 years. They dream of the NBA and, at most, playing for Duke and winning a national title as a freshman on their way to the NBA.

He can’t improve on those things in the NBA?

[richardjackson199]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/s...530817/video/1

How can anyone not like this kid?

“I loved my time here at Duke and I enjoyed every second of it. I want to thank all of the Duke fans, thank each of my teammates – they’re all brothers to me.”

Duval was one of my favorite point guards ever at Duke. His extra gear is special, and he is going to do special things in the NBA. I wish him nothing but utmost success, all the best, and am thankful he chose to be Duke's point guard this year.

[Duke79UNLV77]

He can’t improve on those things in the NBA?

He can, but if he improved them next year in college, he could move way up in the draft, which could earn him a lot more money. Also, the NBA actually has little time for team practices once the season starts. So, if he’s out of the rotation, ge’ll Need to rely a lot on individual work. That said, I think he’ll succeed because he has elite athleticism, can finish at the rim, excellent court vision for passes (though still suspect decision-making), and a good work ethic.

[sagegrouse]

I'd like to make a serious wager on the average being under three times the median.

I dunno. My row in freshman assembly at Duke had 11 deadbeats and one future billionaire. I dunno about "income," but the average net worth may have been 50-200 times the median. Don't overlook the ability of a few racking up serious eight-figure incomes distorting the average for an entire class.

Actually, Jeffrey you're one of my candidates for serious "distortion."

Kindly,
Sage

[Duke95]

I dunno. My row in freshman assembly at Duke had 11 deadbeats and one future billionaire.

If you were there during my time, I'm guessing you may be referring to Ralph Lauren's kid.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Duval was one of my favorite point guards ever at Duke. His extra gear is special, and he is going to do special things in the NBA. I wish him nothing but utmost success, all the best, and am thankful he chose to be Duke's point guard this year.

Me too. I love the dude. He was a flawed PG as a freshman, but damn was he exciting to watch.

I'll miss ya, Tricky!

[Saratoga2]

He can’t improve on those things in the NBA?

If he could improve his play at Duke then it stands to reason that he could also in the NBA where he would get a more intense training and coaching regiment.

[MarkD83]

He can’t improve on those things in the NBA?

The NBA of today looks for specialized players who excel in one or two areas. These players then fill in around the superstars. So any player with one or two great skills can do well in the NBA without expanding their skills

[gus]

I dunno. My row in freshman assembly at Duke had 11 deadbeats and one future billionaire. I dunno about "income," but the average net worth may have been 50-200 times the median. Don't overlook the ability of a few racking up serious eight-figure incomes distorting the average for an entire class.

Actually, Jeffrey you're one of my candidates for serious "distortion."

Kindly,
Sage

Class of '86?

[coldriver10]

The problem with the argument about coming back and potentially making more money by improving draft position is that the "real" money is in the 2nd contract, and getting there one year earlier (if you're successful) has the potential to blow the extra million or so that was made by getting drafted higher out of the water.

When I was in medical school, I had classmates who had their (very expensive) medical education paid for, either by the MD/PhD program or by the military. With loans, that amount becomes several hundreds of thousands of dollars. But, with the possible exception of primary care, the difference is more than made up by reaching attending salary earlier/in the civilian sector. (Obviously, people do MD/PhD and join the military for reasons much greater than having no loans.) And it's not all about the money. In high school in Florida, I had the option of applying to a combined program at U Miami that would have led to an undergrad and MD degree in 6 years...meaning 2 years earlier to attending salary AND a guaranteed acceptance to medical school. Both of those seemed HUGE! But I didn't want to miss out on the college experience, and Duke was my dream school.

So while I fully understand players jumping early, the Grayson Allens and the Miles Bridges prove it's not just about the money for someone who loves college enough to spend some more time in an environment that realistically, they only get to experience once (going back to school after years off just isn't the same thing as far as experience goes). As for Duval, he is certainly taking a gamble as he runs the risk of not getting any sort of guaranteed contract, but it's one that could pay off handsomely for him. More power to him for betting on himself.

[Jeffrey]

I dunno. My row in freshman assembly at Duke had 11 deadbeats and one future billionaire. I dunno about "income," but the average net worth may have been 50-200 times the median. Don't overlook the ability of a few racking up serious eight-figure incomes distorting the average for an entire class.

Actually, Jeffrey you're one of my candidates for serious "distortion."

Kindly,
Sage

I strongly agree that average net worth is substantially more than three times mean! I know some nine and ten digit players who have done an excellent job staying below most radars. One just explained to me that his wife could not go with my wife to Vegas this weekend because they had to "save money" for his only daughter's wedding next year. I could not control my laughter.

[jimsumner]

If he could improve his play at Duke then it stands to reason that he could also in the NBA where he would get a more intense training and coaching regiment.

Nah. To get a coaching regiment, he'd have to join the military.

[sagegrouse]

If you were there during my time, I'm guessing you may be referring to Ralph Lauren's kid.

Uh, no. My daughter, not I, was in your class.

[uh_no]

Uh, no. My daughter, not I, was in your class.

that's for letting me know!

[bludevil_33]

If someone came to you after your freshman year of college and said, "I will pay you a million dollars a year for three years if you leave school right now. After that, maybe I'll employ you further, or if I don't you can go back to school, try to get another job, or sit at home and count your money." Would you say yes? I'm pretty sure I would have said yes, and pretty sure practically every poster on this board would would have said yes.

The 20-year old me certainly would have taken the million up front.

The 37-year old me would realize that, first, a million a year for three years is not guaranteed if you're going in the second round. Even then, $3 million is not nearly enough to live on for the rest of my life, and putting all my eggs in the basketball basket is risky. Better to continue getting a free Duke education until I can guarantee a rookie contract, unless I'm (worst case scenario) willing to live overseas into my late 20s.

I trust that Duval is getting solid advice from his Duke family, though.

[kshepinthehouse]

The 20-year old me certainly would have taken the million up front.

The 37-year old me would realize that, first, a million a year for three years is not guaranteed if you're going in the second round. Even then, $3 million is not nearly enough to live on for the rest of my life, and putting all my eggs in the basketball basket is risky. Better to continue getting a free Duke education until I can guarantee a rookie contract, unless I'm (worst case scenario) willing to live overseas into my late 20s.

I trust that Duval is getting solid advice from his Duke family, though.

The 37 year old me would be even more likely to take the $3 million.

[Duke95]

The 20-year old me certainly would have taken the million up front.

The 37-year old me would realize that, first, a million a year for three years is not guaranteed if you're going in the second round. Even then, $3 million is not nearly enough to live on for the rest of my life, and putting all my eggs in the basketball basket is risky. Better to continue getting a free Duke education until I can guarantee a rookie contract, unless I'm (worst case scenario) willing to live overseas into my late 20s.

I trust that Duval is getting solid advice from his Duke family, though.

This is a bad take for several reasons.

1. There is NO FREE DUKE EDUCATION. Athletes are paying education with their labor. College athletes are not getting anything "for free."
2. $3M doesn't have to be enough, because you can return to school after your make your $3M...or take classes toward your degree while you're making the money, like players sometimes do.
3. Living overseas is still a better deal. You get around $100k a year PLUS your living expenses & car are often pay for as well.

Your 37 year old self should listen to your 20-year old self.

[dchen09]

And lets be real, the biggest benefit of a top institutions isn't the education you get from going to classes. You're going to get a similar (if not better) education from a state school if you're just relying on coursework. The real benefit is access to top level internships, access to cutting edge research, and access to the alumni network. When's the last time someone has hired based on your GPA?

If you're a college basketball player with known prospects to play in the NBA, I don't see significant tangible benefit (of course there is intangible benefits of getting a tremendous life experience) of staying in college when you can get a headstart on your career. Staying in college, you're unlikely to fully (or even marginally) take advantage of the educational benefits of college. Pursuing a pro career doesn't mean you can't go back to college to get the education you want, particularly since if you do decide to come back, you'll likely have more time to fully concentrate on the learning aspects of college.

[bludevil_33]

This is a bad take for several reasons.

1. There is NO FREE DUKE EDUCATION. Athletes are paying education with their labor. College athletes are not getting anything "for free."
2. $3M doesn't have to be enough, because you can return to school after your make your $3M...or take classes toward your degree while you're making the money, like players sometimes do.
3. Living overseas is still a better deal. You get around $100k a year PLUS your living expenses & car are often pay for as well.

Your 37 year old self should listen to your 20-year old self.

You're still assuming that the $3 million is guaranteed. It's not if you're a second-rounder.

Am I going to leave my full-ride scholarship at age 20 to go on a job interview where I may have a 50/50 shot of getting the job?

You're also discounting the difference between holding a college degree at age 22 than holding one at age 28-32. You can go back to school after a career in Europe, but you better have spent that time building up your network and figuring out what you want to do when you get out. If you're focused solely on being a basketball player, you're going to find yourself retired from playing basketball in your early 30s and just entering the workforce.

[dchen09]

You're still assuming that the $3 million is guaranteed. It's not if you're a second-rounder.

Am I going to leave my full-ride scholarship at age 20 to go on a job interview where I may have a 50/50 shot of getting the job?

You're also discounting the difference between holding a college degree at age 22 than holding one at age 28-32. You can go back to school after a career in Europe, but you better have spent that time building up your network and figuring out what you want to do when you get out. If you're focused solely on being a basketball player, you're going to find yourself retired from playing basketball in your early 30s and just entering the workforce.

Except the value of a college degree is nil these days. How many employers are going to want to hire you based on a degree? Now imagine yourself even 3-4 years out from college, and you don't have competitive work experience compared to 99% of the other applicants in your field. So what does that degree that you stayed in college for earn you? I'd argue its much much better to go back to school when you actually need the schooling. The whole point in staying in school is if you don't have the prospects of going pro, you can then leverage your degree into some other field directly out of college. However, if you ever have the prospects to earn 6 figures somewhere, its likely financially worthwhile to do that, even if its only for 2-3 years. In that time, you're focused 100% on being a basketball player. If it doesn't work out, you've still earned what, around $500k as a 2nd round type talent. Come back to a state school and pay 60k over 3 years to get a relevant degree and you have the chance to fully commit to said degree.