Duval officially declares for the draft.

[kako]

Best of luck to Duval. I hope he's wildly successful so that I can count him as a great Duke product in the NBA.

There are a lot of angles to look at why a kid would stay or go. One thing I think is that a kid may just want to play ball. Maybe he doesn't want to go to class. Maybe he wants to work out full time to hone his skills, without NCAA restrictions about when he can do so and also requiring him to take courses that he really doesn't want to take. Maybe it's not about getting the best contract, making the most money, etc. Maybe he just wants to make basketball his full-time job. This is totally his right to do, his choice about his desire to chase his dream. Anyone can stand on the sideline and say, "Well, he'd be better off if...". but it's not their life. It's his... So go forth, young man! Thanks for your efforts this year at Duke. Now make your mark!

[Jeffrey]

That seems low to me...the average Duke student makes an average salary of $60,000 over their first 30 years of employment?

Agreed, most Duke grads make more than $60k per year.

[CDu]

IIRC, the average Duke grad. currently makes $150k per year during mid-career (post-graduation years 10+).

That is probably high if you're looking at the median, but it's probably true for the average. But the average is skewed upwards.

That being said, I'd expect that the median mid-career salary for a Duke grad is still a good bit higher than $60K.

But that's all sort of beside the point. The hypothetical $3 million offer isn't a one-time offer only. It will likely be a similar offer next year. And there is a chance that, by returning, one could double (mid-first rounder) or triple (low/mid lottery pick) that initial offer with a big year next year. So even if you are only looking at the money, it's not a given that the optimal rational decision is to take the money today.

That's not to say that choosing to go or choosing to stay is the clearly rationally superior choice. Just that it isn't necessarily as simple as "you take the $3 million now".

[Duke79UNLV77]

Not really. It's simply not true that it is unequivocally irrational to say "no." A few things that you've ignored:
1. Is this is a one-time offer, or will it be offered again next year?
2. Could the offer be even better next year, such that it offsets the one-year delay in said earnings?
3. Relatedly, what is the risk that the offer is worse next year?
4. How much does waiting a year affect the earnings at the end of your career?
5. How much do you place value on your life experiences as an 18/19/20 year old in college relative to earnings?

You have presented this as a "$3 million or nothing" argument. It's simply not that simple.

Now, I do agree that for many (if not the vast majority) the decision is an easy one. And that is why most go pro when the opportunity presents itself. But it just isn't as simple as "it's irrational to choose to come back". Those who do choose to come back aren't necessarily making an irrational choice. Their choice may very well be rational given how they feel about the above points (and others).

The calculus in most players' minds used to be go if you are a lottery pick. Then, it became to go if you are a clear first round pick. Now, it seems to be to go if you may get drafted at all. Duval is a tough case because the projections for him vary so widely, from mid-1st round to mid-2nd round. If the latter, I think the better decision financially could be to return. Assuming he could improve markedly on his weaknesses, which I believe he would, his strengths could allow him to leap towards the lottery. There's always a downside risk, but I think Duval had more of an upside opportunity if he had returned than any of the other freshmen did. Either way, I think he'll be fine because he has the talent to stick in the league and make more money playing a game than most of us ever will make.

The reality is that very few players of any significant talent these days -- Allen may have been one of the last exceptions -- dream of playing at Duke or other big-time schools for 4 years. They dream of the NBA and, at most, playing for Duke and winning a national title as a freshman on their way to the NBA.

[CDu]

The reality is that very few players of any significant talent these days -- Allen may have been one of the last exceptions -- dream of playing at Duke or other big-time schools for 4 years. They dream of the NBA and, at most, playing for Duke and winning a national title as a freshman on their way to the NBA.

There are one or two first round picks nearly every year that choose to stay. Miles Bridges did so last year. Daniel Gafford is doing so this year. It certainly isn't the norm, but it isn't exactly a complete rarity either.

[Jeffrey]

That is probably high if you're looking at the median, but it's probably true for the average. But the average is skewed upwards.

That being said, I'd expect that the median mid-career salary for a Duke grad is still a good bit higher than $60K.

True, I helped my argument by saying average. However, I'm surprised any Duke grad believes $60k is close to accurate.

This site shows mid-career (10 years+) at a median of $143,900:

https://www.payscale.com/college-sal.../all-bachelors

[Spanarkel]

There are one or two first round picks nearly every year that choose to stay. Miles Bridges did so last year. Daniel Gafford is doing so this year. It certainly isn't the norm, but it isn't exactly a complete rarity either.

Duke79UNLV77's post mentioned very talented players staying for a four year career, whereas Miles Bridge stayed two years and Gafford was a freshman this season.

[CDu]

Duke79UNLV77's post mentioned very talented players staying for a four year career, whereas Miles Bridge stayed two years and Gafford was a freshman this season.

Oops, my bad. Yes, 4-year guys who were All-Americans as sophomores are going to be pretty rare. Carry on.

[Ian]

Sure Duke grads make more than 60,000 a year, but the value of the college degree is not how much you earn with the degree, but how much more you earn compared to not having a degree.

If the average HS grad with no college degree makes say 30K a year. Then you're income would have to be 90K for the college education to have a value of 60K.

[Duke95]

Agreed, most Duke grads make more than $60k per year.

I'd certainly expect a Duke grad to make a higher salary than $60k per year, but I haven't seen any data to that effect. If you have, can you share?

[uh_no]

I'd certainly expect a Duke grad to make a higher salary than $60k per year, but I haven't seen any data to that effect. If you have, can you share?

i mean, someone posted the mean duke grad salary mid career is 150k.

Expected value is built of the mean.

[Duke95]

i mean, someone posted the mean duke grad salary mid career is 150k.

Expected value is built of the mean.

Here's what someone posted: "IIRC, the average Duke grad. currently makes $150k per year during mid-career (post-graduation years 10+)." That was Jeffery.

I'm asking if there are any data that back that up. You know, as in sources.

[Duke95]

Ah, here are some data from payscale.com:
https://www.payscale.com/college-sal...elors?page=101

Duke at $134k, mid-career, but looking at their methodology, this seems really suspect. Wouldn't give this much weight.

[uh_no]

Ah, here are some data from payscale.com:
https://www.payscale.com/college-sal...elors?page=101

Duke at $134k, mid-career, but looking at their methodology, this seems really suspect. Wouldn't give this much weight.

https://www.collegeatlas.org/college...ge-salary.html

similar ballpark, also discludes many high-paying careers...which encompasses a huge % of duke grads

5 years ago the times had the median at ~90k. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...uke-university

[sagegrouse]

That is probably high if you're looking at the median, but it's probably true for the average. But the average is skewed upwards.

That being said, I'd expect that the median mid-career salary for a Duke grad is still a good bit higher than $60K.

But that's all sort of beside the point. The hypothetical $3 million offer isn't a one-time offer only. It will likely be a similar offer next year. And there is a chance that, by returning, one could double (mid-first rounder) or triple (low/mid lottery pick) that initial offer with a big year next year. So even if you are only looking at the money, it's not a given that the optimal rational decision is to take the money today.

That's not to say that choosing to go or choosing to stay is the clearly rationally superior choice. Just that it isn't necessarily as simple as "you take the $3 million now".

I expect the average is three times the median in most Duke classes after ten years.

[Devilwin]

He is going to find rough going. But he is tough, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the NBA. I predicted he was gone, and he will be a second rounder, probably late second round. But with Tre Jones coming in, well, you know the rest.

[Furniture]

Thread hijack?

[Jeffrey]

I expect the average is three times the median in most Duke classes after ten years.

I'd like to make a serious wager on the average being under three times the median.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'd like to make a serious wager on the average being under three times the median.

That's a lot of pie.

[Furniture]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/s...530817/video/1

How can anyone not like this kid?

“I loved my time here at Duke and I enjoyed every second of it. I want to thank all of the Duke fans, thank each of my teammates – they’re all brothers to me.”