Duval officially declares for the draft.

[Duke95]

If someone came to you after your freshman year of college and said, "I will pay you a million dollars a year for three years if you leave school right now. After that, maybe I'll employ you further, or if I don't you can go back to school, try to get another job, or sit at home and count your money." Would you say yes? I'm pretty sure I would have said yes, and pretty sure practically every poster on this board would would have said yes.

Anyone who says no to this offer is behaving irrationally. The (bit less than) $3M is greater than the present value of an expected college degree over one's lifetime of earnings.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Anyone who says no to this offer is behaving irrationally. The (bit less than) $3M is greater than the present value of an expected college degree over one's lifetime of earnings.

Not to mention, one in this position can always return to school if they felt the interest or need.

[CDu]

Anyone who says no to this offer is behaving irrationally. The (bit less than) $3M is greater than the present value of an expected college degree over one's lifetime of earnings.

Technically, this is not necessarily true. It is only true if money is the primary contributing factor to one's happiness. A rational decision only requires that you act in a manner that maximizes your utility. If, for example, such a decision were guaranteed to ruin your life beyond the money, it would not be rational to accept.

That being said, for the vast majority of folks facing such an offer, the rational decision is indeed to take the money and run.

[Sir Stealth]

Count me as one who thinks that Duval will have a successful NBA career. He strikes me as someone who is willing to put in the work required to get better, and I think that he will maximize his natural ability with time.

In the era we are in, the top prospects coming out of high school/AAU plan to go to the NBA as soon as possible. There was a time in between "almost everyone stays 4 years" and now where players would come in and see how things went, then leave as soon as their stock was high enough. That mentality still exists for mid-range prospects, but the top prospects are almost all going to stick with their original plan to go pro regardless.

Ironically, Duke, with it's reputation as an institution that pursues overall excellence, actually seems to attract the most motivated, ambitious players who are even more determined to pursue careers as professionals. Many fans understandably still have difficulty seeing how a player can truly value the Duke experience and still be so eager to leave, but it's clear when you listen to players like Bagley and Duval talk about it there is no conflict there. They have bought into the idea that a one year stop at Duke enters you into the Duke experience ("brotherhood") for life, and that they will continue to be part of the Duke brand and the Duke pursuit of excellence as they pursue their dream to compete with the best. That's the recruiting pitch, and that seems to be how top players feel that they can get real value out of the year that they are required to play college ball. I even believe that most truly value their academic experience and put in that work as well, to the extent it doesn't get in the way of their basketball (chosen career path) obligations. These guys are also by their nature true competitors, and I'm sure they also cared deeply about the team results on the court. But the NBA remains the ultimate goal above all others, and what they have been putting in the work for their whole lives.

[Jeffrey]

Technically, this is not necessarily true. It is only true if money is the primary contributing factor to one's happiness. A rational decision only requires that you act in a manner that maximizes your utility. If, for example, such a decision were guaranteed to ruin your life beyond the money, it would not be rational to accept.

That being said, for the vast majority of folks facing such an offer, the rational decision is indeed to take the money and run.

It's also not monetarily true for the average Duke grad.

[Truth&Justise]

I hope Trevon finds success at the next level, however I really don't understand the rush to hire an agent.

With the new system that's in place you have time to make an informed decision on your future. By hiring an agent there's no turning back.

Others have addressed the general benefits of turning pro, but I wanted to make one other small point: there is value to having an agent when approaching the draft.

An agent has relationships with NBA teams and can leverage that to arrange for workouts, seek out guarantees, and lobby for drafting you. An agent can also help advise on the best way to maximize your appeal to NBA teams: work with this trainer, go to this workout but not this one, talk to this person at this team, oh and let me leak a story from a scout raving about your heretofore-unknown-ability, etc. Now, a well-connected coach like K, with the resources Duke has, can give you a lot of similar advice. But for an agent, it is literally his/her job to protect your best interest, and that kind of focused attention can help when preparing for a professional career.


So yes, there is a cost to hiring an agent: you irreversibly lose your college eligibility. But if you are inclined to declare for the draft, and it doesn't seem like a terrible decision (e.g. you'll likely be picked, the coaching staff supports that decision), then there is value in hiring someone with experience to help you navigate the process.

[azzefkram]

Best of luck, Tre. I really enjoyed your time at Duke and wish you the best in the NBA and beyond.

[Wander]

It's also not monetarily true for the average Duke grad.

Yeah, I looked it up – $3M is about the expected value of a Duke degree over a lifetime. I wonder how that compares to the expected value for a Duke basketball player who doesn't make the NBA. I'm not sure it's obvious that leaving school to be a second round pick is on average better than staying for another year (of course, you may consider it better because it's lower risk, or better for non-financial reasons).

[rsvman]

Granted that I chose the absolute lowest paid doctoring job that an MD could possibly choose, and that I made some very poor financial decisions with regard to deferring versus paying back school loans early on, he'll still be able to make in ONE YEAR about what I have managed to amass for retirement after 30 (count 'em THIRTY) years of working as a doctor. And he'll be grossing more than 5 times my annual salary.

Other than that, though, it's a crappy job, lol.


Put me down on the Duval supporter side of the ledger, please. I always liked the guy. Sure, he made some dumb decisions, the worst of which was the end of the Boston College game, but he also saved our bacon against Florida State and made some huge plays/shots when we needed them most. He played great in the tournament, too. I wish him the best of luck.

[kAzE]

Only 3 things in life are certain: Death, Taxes, and debates on the merits of one and done on DBR in April.

[Duke95]

Technically, this is not necessarily true. It is only true if money is the primary contributing factor to one's happiness. A rational decision only requires that you act in a manner that maximizes your utility. If, for example, such a decision were guaranteed to ruin your life beyond the money, it would not be rational to accept.

That being said, for the vast majority of folks facing such an offer, the rational decision is indeed to take the money and run.

If someone is willing to pay your a million dollars for your sports talents, it means you've already invested sufficient time and effort to put yourself in that position. So your scenario is implausible. Can there be some special case that is an exception? Possibly. But you're just arguing for the sake of argument here.

[Duke95]

Yeah, I looked it up – $3M is about the expected value of a Duke degree over a lifetime. I wonder how that compares to the expected value for a Duke basketball player who doesn't make the NBA. I'm not sure it's obvious that leaving school to be a second round pick is on average better than staying for another year (of course, you may consider it better because it's lower risk, or better for non-financial reasons).

Would like to see that link...number seems high, which indicates it's not discounted to PV.

This site seems to say the 30-year PV is $1.83M. https://www.collegefactual.com/colle...on-investment/

[Acymetric]

Would like to see that link...number seems high, which indicates it's not discounted to PV.

This site seems to say the 30-year PV is $1.83M. https://www.collegefactual.com/colle...on-investment/

That seems low to me...the average Duke student makes an average salary of $60,000 over their first 30 years of employment? I suppose they are using net income, which would make sense in a way but is a little misleading if not clearly stated. And your link specifically says it is setting aside PV so that $1.83 mil would be even lower with it factored in.

[Wander]

Would like to see that link...number seems high, which indicates it's not discounted to PV.

This site seems to say the 30-year PV is $1.83M. https://www.collegefactual.com/colle...on-investment/

That's 30 years from high school, so to an age of 48. I extrapolated to retirement age and removed the tuition costs.

[flyingdutchdevil]

That seems low to me...the average Duke student makes an average salary of $60,000 over their first 30 years of employment? I suppose they are using net income, which would make sense in a way but is a little misleading if not clearly stated. And your link specifically says it is setting aside PV so that $1.83 mil would be even lower with it factored in.

Present value. Meaning every year would be 60000 in today’s dollars. No idea what the discount rate is. Probably inflation, maybe a little higher.

[Duke95]

That's 30 years from high school, so to an age of 48. I extrapolated to retirement age and removed the tuition costs.

Ok, so discount that to PV and you'll likely get something much lower than $3M. Taking $3M in 3 years while young is a no-brainer of a decision.

[devildeac]

Only 3 things in life are certain: Death, Taxes, and debates on the merits of one and done on DBR in April.

4.

You forgot this:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...our-Picks-Here!

[CDu]

If someone is willing to pay your a million dollars for your sports talents, it means you've already invested sufficient time and effort to put yourself in that position. So your scenario is implausible. Can there be some special case that is an exception? Possibly. But you're just arguing for the sake of argument here.

Not really. It's simply not true that it is unequivocally irrational to say "no." A few things that you've ignored:
1. Is this is a one-time offer, or will it be offered again next year?
2. Could the offer be even better next year, such that it offsets the one-year delay in said earnings?
3. Relatedly, what is the risk that the offer is worse next year?
4. How much does waiting a year affect the earnings at the end of your career?
5. How much do you place value on your life experiences as an 18/19/20 year old in college relative to earnings?

You have presented this as a "$3 million or nothing" argument. It's simply not that simple.

Now, I do agree that for many (if not the vast majority) the decision is an easy one. And that is why most go pro when the opportunity presents itself. But it just isn't as simple as "it's irrational to choose to come back". Those who do choose to come back aren't necessarily making an irrational choice. Their choice may very well be rational given how they feel about the above points (and others).

[Jeffrey]

Granted that I chose the absolute lowest paid doctoring job that an MD could possibly choose, and that I made some very poor financial decisions with regard to deferring versus paying back school loans early on, he'll still be able to make in ONE YEAR about what I have managed to amass for retirement after 30 (count 'em THIRTY) years of working as a doctor. And he'll be grossing more than 5 times my annual salary.

If you want some free (and worth every penny!) financial advice, then send me a PM.

[Jeffrey]

Would like to see that link...number seems high, which indicates it's not discounted to PV.

This site seems to say the 30-year PV is $1.83M. https://www.collegefactual.com/colle...on-investment/

IIRC, the average Duke grad. currently makes $150k per year during mid-career (post-graduation years 10+).