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  1. #1
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    Super Early Preseaon Rankings for Next Season


  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    MBB: "Way Too Early" Preseason Polls Collector Thread and Discussion

    These "way too early" top 25s will be better to look at after all the NBA early entry, transfer, grad transfer, late commit, and reclass (if any) decisions are finalized. But for those interested... I've linked a few below.

    It seems like there is a consensus developing that Kansas is preseason #1. I think that is solid, although I'd probably make UVA my preseason #1.

    CBS - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. Nova, 4. Auburn, 5. Tennessee... ACC: 8. UVA, 9. UNC, 13. VaTech, 14. Lville, 15. FSU, 24. Clemson

    SI - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. Nova, 4. Michigan, 5. Kentucky... ACC: 6. UNC, 7. UVA, 13. VaTech, 16. Clemson, 23. FSU

    ESPN - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. Nova, 4. Kentucky, 5. Auburn... ACC: 7. UVA, 9. UNC, 15. Cuse, 16. VaTech, 18. Clemson, 23. FSU

    Fox - 1. Duke, 2. Kansas, 3. Nova, 4. Kentucky, 5. UNC... ACC: 8. UVA, 12. Lville, 16. VaTech, 24. FSU

    TSN - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. Kentucky, 4. Nova, 5. UVA... ACC: 12. UNC, 19. VaTech, 24. ND

    Yahoo - 1. Kansas, 2. Nova, 3. Duke, 4. UVA, 5. UNC... ACC: 15. VaTech, 16. Cuse, 18. FSU

    USAT - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. UVA. 4. Nova, 5. Zaga... ACC: 9. UNC, 14. Lville, 16. VaTech, 20. FSU

    NBC - 1. Kansas, 2. Nova, 3. Kentucky, 4. Duke, 6. UVA... ACC: 11. UNC, 12. Lville, 13. VaTech, 15. FSU, 22. NCSU, 25. Clemson

  3. #3
    Well, it certainly is super early. Really need to wait until after the NBA draft.

    And given Duke's extreme youth next year -- and possible lack of returning starters -- it's tough to make many accurate predictions for how good they'll be. But I know I'll enjoy the ride!

    Still, wouldn't mind if a few publications didn't place those lofty expectations on us.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Dallas, TX
    NBC . . . . . Wtf.

    At least Vegas respects us. We currently have 5-1 odds to win the title.

    I'm guessing these rankings assume everyone goes pro. If Trent returns, I think we jump to #1 in some of those.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    These "way too early" top 25s will be better to look at after all the NBA early entry, transfer, grad transfer, late commit, and reclass (if any) decisions are finalized. But for those interested... I've linked a few below.

    It seems like there is a consensus developing that Kansas is preseason #1. I think that is solid, although I'd probably make UVA my preseason #1.

    CBS - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. Nova, 4. Auburn, 5. Tennessee... ACC: 8. UVA, 9. UNC, 13. VaTech, 14. Lville, 15. FSU, 24. Clemson

    SI - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. Nova, 4. Michigan, 5. Kentucky... ACC: 6. UNC, 7. UVA, 13. VaTech, 16. Clemson, 23. FSU

    ESPN - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. Nova, 4. Kentucky, 5. Auburn... ACC: 7. UVA, 9. UNC, 15. Cuse, 16. VaTech, 18. Clemson, 23. FSU

    Fox - 1. Duke, 2. Kansas, 3. Nova, 4. Kentucky, 5. UNC... ACC: 8. UVA, 12. Lville, 16. VaTech, 24. FSU

    TSN - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. Kentucky, 4. Nova, 5. UVA... ACC: 12. UNC, 19. VaTech, 24. ND

    Yahoo - 1. Kansas, 2. Nova, 3. Duke, 4. UVA, 5. UNC... ACC: 15. VaTech, 16. Cuse, 18. FSU

    USAT - 1. Kansas, 2. Duke, 3. UVA. 4. Nova, 5. Zaga... ACC: 9. UNC, 14. Lville, 16. VaTech, 20. FSU

    NBC - 1. Kansas, 2. Nova, 3. Kentucky, 4. Duke, 6. UVA... ACC: 11. UNC, 12. Lville, 13. VaTech, 15. FSU, 22. NCSU, 25. Clemson
    Surprised Duke is there was so much inexperience. Based on yesterday, Nova should at least be 2. They have a strong core returning. I would also have UVa up near 3 or 4. I would put Duke at 10.
    dukelifer

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    NBC . . . . . Wtf.

    At least Vegas respects us. We currently have 5-1 odds to win the title.

    I'm guessing these rankings assume everyone goes pro. If Trent returns, I think we jump to #1 in some of those.
    There is probably some Duke-as-preseason-#1 fatigue. So even if Gary returns, I would not expect us to be ranked #1 in either these "way too early" ones or the real polls (AP, Coaches) right before the season starts.

  7. #7
    A non-Duke point: another thing to keep an eye on (along with transfers and draft decisions) is Phil Cofer's eligibility. A lot of these early rankings have FSU in the top 20, and they're certainly bringing back a talented core, full of giant-big men and scoring wings. But I don't see anyone else on the roster who can replicate Cofer's role as a stretch four. He was also their leading scorer this past year, so there's that, too.

    The team is petitioning the NCAA for a hardship waiver based on Cofer's sophomore season, when he played only 11 games due to injury. But that is one game too many for the 30-percent cutoff for a medical redshirt. So FSU will have to wait out the NCAA decision on whether to grant a waiver. Anyone have insight on how the NCAA usually rules on those?

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Based on yesterday, Nova should at least be 2. They have a strong core returning.
    I'm okay with top 5 for them. Love Jay Wright and the Nova program, but even they are going to feel the losses of Mikal Bridges and Brunson. (Just like they took a season to fully recover from the losses of Arciadacano and Ochefu.) But, for the most part, they're going to purr right along. They might very well get a 1-seed again, as the Big East seems to be perfectly built for them to do so. Strong enough for high RPIs but no team strong enough to challenge them for the crown.

    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Surprised Duke is there was so much inexperience.
    Shouldn't be surprised if you've looked at these things in previous seasons.

    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    I would put Duke at 10.
    It comes down to whether our guys can properly spread the floor for each other to operate. This season, we played defense on ourselves at times with only two good high-volume shooters on the court. If we can reliably shoot from more spots on the floor, I think we should be a strong contender to be in Minneapolis.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post

    Shouldn't be surprised if you've looked at these things in previous seasons.
    Agreed. This was a year where experience dominated in the tournament, but Duke was still a fraction of an inch from going to a FF while starting 4 freshmen. Of course, Duke's 2015 team showed one and dones can win it all, and UK has had success in the past with the approach.

    I'm not at all surprised to see us with a top 3 ranking given our stellar recruiting class. If we get an unexpected return from someone like a Trent or Duval, all the better.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Surprised Duke is there was so much inexperience. Based on yesterday, Nova should at least be 2. They have a strong core returning. I would also have UVa up near 3 or 4. I would put Duke at 10.
    I think Duke and Nova are both TBD. Nova should lose Bridges (a projected lottery pick and of senior-year age already) and could likely lose Brunson (NPoY, two-time champ, probably a borderline first/second round pick). If both go, they suddenly have some real question marks. Plenty of talent returning, but lacking at the PG spot in a big way. And suddenly not nearly as deep without their two best scorers.

    With Duke, it also depends a lot on who returns. If Bolden stays, we have a formidable frontcourt with versatility. If Bolden and Trent stay, we have an unbelievably deep, versatile group with enough shooting to make it work, and we won't be quite as reliant on the freshmen to carry the scoring load.

    I'm comfortable with Duke as a top-5 preseason team, and above Nova if Brunson goes pro and at least one of Bolden/Trent returns.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    NBC . . . . . Wtf.

    At least Vegas respects us. We currently have 5-1 odds to win the title.

    I'm guessing these rankings assume everyone goes pro. If Trent returns, I think we jump to #1 in some of those.
    I dunno. I guess we will be a top ten team like this year (finishing at #9), and there's a chance, I suppose, we'll be better than that. Four freshman starters and no established returnees.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
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    Dallas, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I dunno. I guess we will be a top ten team like this year (finishing at #9), and there's a chance, I suppose, we'll be better than that. Four freshman starters and no established returnees.
    These way too early polls are usually a guess at how good these teams will be at the end of the season.

    If we were to rank the teams based on how good they are in November 2018? I would put us maybe borderline top 10. But this team's ceiling will obviously be a national championship team.

    I thought we were a strong contender this year as well, but an unfortunate shooting slump by both Grayson and Gary really hurt us in both games in Omaha.

    Although we will be about as inexperienced as this year's club, I think the leadership void isn't as big a deal as some will make it out to be. In my opinion, RJ Barrett brings a level of leadership that we haven't seen in an incoming freshman before. The more interviews/video clips I watch, the more confident I am that he can carry the load both on the court and as a team leader. He's super vocal and ridiculously competitive. This kid is incredible in so many more ways than just as a basketball player. He's not gonna be a quiet guy like Grayson/Marvin. Duke fans are in for a treat.
    Last edited by kAzE; 04-03-2018 at 01:37 PM.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I dunno. I guess we will be a top ten team like this year (finishing at #9), and there's a chance, I suppose, we'll be better than that. Four freshman starters and no established returnees.
    Agree with the above. We need to dampen expectations when we have very little team experience returning. This year we were preseason No. 1, escaped serious injury bug, finished 2nd in ACC and made Elite 8. I donít think Iíd expect next years team to do much better.

    Do hope we sweep the Heels.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Seattle
    If the 4 freshmen are at least as good as Carter and Trent, we should be a top 5 team. They're about similarly rated on recruiting sites as those two. Trent coming back would make our backcourt one of the strongest if not the strongest on paper in Duke history.

    1, 3, 8, 12 rankings by recruiting services. I don't think think any other past teams are close.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I think Duke and Nova are both TBD. Nova should lose Bridges (a projected lottery pick and of senior-year age already) and could likely lose Brunson (NPoY, two-time champ, probably a borderline first/second round pick). If both go, they suddenly have some real question marks. Plenty of talent returning, but lacking at the PG spot in a big way. And suddenly not nearly as deep without their two best scorers.

    With Duke, it also depends a lot on who returns. If Bolden stays, we have a formidable frontcourt with versatility. If Bolden and Trent stay, we have an unbelievably deep, versatile group with enough shooting to make it work, and we won't be quite as reliant on the freshmen to carry the scoring load.

    I'm comfortable with Duke as a top-5 preseason team, and above Nova if Brunson goes pro and at least one of Bolden/Trent returns.
    Was looking at Nova's roster to see who else was leaving as a senior and was surprised to see how many redshirt players they have.

    6 redshirt players this year, including key players like Divincenzo, Bridges, Paschall, Spellman and Booth.

    Do any other schools stash players as much?

  16. #16
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    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    There is probably some Duke-as-preseason-#1 fatigue. So even if Gary returns, I would not expect us to be ranked #1 in either these "way too early" ones or the real polls (AP, Coaches) right before the season starts.
    Based on talent, we're #1. Based on production, we're top 5. Certainly not 1.

    If the last two years has proved anything, it's that pre-season should be based on production, not talent.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    Was looking at Nova's roster to see who else was leaving as a senior and was surprised to see how many redshirt players they have.

    6 redshirt players this year, including key players like Divincenzo, Bridges, Paschall, Spellman and Booth.

    Do any other schools stash players as much?
    Of those key 5 only one (Bridges) was a voluntary redshirt. DiVincenzo and Booth were injury redshirts. Paschall was a transfer from Fordham and Spellman was academically ineligible.

    Uva definitely redshirts, particularly big men. Others have mentioned Notre Dame and Wisconsin. I know that Ethan Happ was a planned redshirt in 2015, the year we beat Wisconsin for the national championship.
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    Was looking at Nova's roster to see who else was leaving as a senior and was surprised to see how many redshirt players they have.

    6 redshirt players this year, including key players like Divincenzo, Bridges, Paschall, Spellman and Booth.

    Do any other schools stash players as much?
    As has been discussed in a couple of other threads (not picking on you Ferry, just noting it), that is a bit misleading. Yes, they have 6 guys on the roster who have redshirted. But 3 of them were injury redshirts: Booth (a costly missing piece last year in what would have been his junior year), Divincenzo (missed most of his freshman year), and another guy who missed two seasons with hip injuries and doesn't see the court much. Another was a transfer (Paschall, who transferred after his freshman year from Fordham). And the last was an academically ineligible freshman (Spellman, a top-20 recruit who also would have made a big impact on last year's team). Only Bridges was a healthy true redshirt.

    I would venture that there are a lot of teams with several "redshirt" guys on the roster who sat out a year due to injury or transfer. There probably aren't any teams that have a bunch of true redshirts on their roster.

  19. #19
    With the amount of youth, I'd say top 10, 2nd or 3 rd place in the ACC and SW16 to E8 finish should be the realistic expectation for next year..

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    NBC . . . . . Wtf.
    NBC also has the Pack listed because wait for it...too many guards!!!

    Speaking of red shirts, State will have four redshirts on the court next year (all transfers). Torin Dorn, CJ Bryce, Devon Daniels, and Blake Harris. Should I buy tickets to the see State win it all next year?

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