After years of games and mulling over Kenpom I found the blueprint for a title

[proelitedota]

1. Rebounding: Top 10 in offensive rebounding and top 50 in defensive rebounding, and you NEED to rebound as a TEAM. Rebound at this rate and you can afford to have an inconsistent perimeter game.

2. TO%: Needs to turn it over at less than 16% of possessions.

3. Limit opponent 3% field goal attempts. Obviously against some teams you can slack off the 3pt line a bit, but against Duke the 3s almost always go in.

4. Hit free throws >70% clip.

5. Don't foul.

Our 2018 team was flawed in the defensive rebounding (236th) and TO% (117) in the nation. We were excellent on the offensive boards, and did everything else pretty well. If we rebounded better defensively on the year, we would have been a 1 seed and in the final four. Defensive rebounding costed us at least 4 games this year. The fact that we played a zone probably prevented us from ever being a good defensive rebounding team.

We were probably better than we needed to be at blocking and challenging shots around the rim.

[pfrduke]

1. Rebounding: Top 10 in offensive rebounding and top 50 in defensive rebounding, and you NEED to rebound as a TEAM. Rebound at this rate and you can afford to have an inconsistent perimeter game.

2. TO%: Needs to turn it over at less than 16% of possessions.

3. Limit opponent 3% field goal attempts. Obviously against some teams you can slack off the 3pt line a bit, but against Duke the 3s almost always go in.

4. Hit free throws >70% clip.

5. Don't foul.

Our 2018 team was flawed in the defensive rebounding (236th) and TO% (117) in the nation. We were excellent on the offensive boards, and did everything else pretty well. If we rebounded better defensively on the year, we would have been a 1 seed and in the final four. Defensive rebounding costed us at least 4 games this year. The fact that we played a zone probably prevented us from ever being a good defensive rebounding team.

We were probably better than we needed to be at blocking and challenging shots around the rim.

How are you drawing this from KP data for recent champions? Using these metrics, the following teams don't qualify:

2017 UNC (273d in limiting 3FG attempts)
2016 Villanova (terrible rebounding team; 262 in limiting 3FGs, turnovers on slightly more than 16% of possessions)
2015 Duke (125 in defensive rebounding, sub 70% from the line, turnovers on slightly more than 16% of possessions)
2014 UCONN (terrible rebounding team; middle of the road in limiting 3FGs, turnovers on 17% of possessions)
2013 Louisville (bad defensive rebounding team; turnovers on 18% of possessions; 185 in limiting 3FGs)
2012 UK (114th defensive rebounding, turnovers on 17% of possessions)

And that's as far back as I care to go.

[ndkjr70]

If we use last year as an indication, the key to winning a national championship is actually pretty simple:

Step 1: Have a decade long systemic cheating scandal that allows players to attend school without actually attending school.

Step 2: Have literally zero punishment handed down from the governing body.

Step 3: ???

Step 4: Win a title!

[proelitedota]

How are you drawing this from KP data for recent champions? Using these metrics, the following teams don't qualify:

2017 UNC (273d in limiting 3FG attempts)
2016 Villanova (terrible rebounding team; 262 in limiting 3FGs, turnovers on slightly more than 16% of possessions)
2015 Duke (125 in defensive rebounding, sub 70% from the line, turnovers on slightly more than 16% of possessions)
2014 UCONN (terrible rebounding team; middle of the road in limiting 3FGs, turnovers on 17% of possessions)
2013 Louisville (bad defensive rebounding team; turnovers on 18% of possessions; 185 in limiting 3FGs)
2012 UK (114th defensive rebounding, turnovers on 17% of possessions)

And that's as far back as I care to go.

To clarify, you can win a title in a lot of ways, majority of them involve luck. The blueprint that I have is theoretical one that combines all extremely reliable characteristic of all the title teams. I might be a bit aggressive in the rebounding criteria. I think top 50 O and top 100 D is probably enough for an average shooting Duke team.

Of course consistency in these criteria is more valuable than a higher average rating.

[Reilly]

Is it possible to follow the blueprint to a T and still not win? I think I'd rather be lucky than good.

[Newton_14]

If we use last year as an indication, the key to winning a national championship is actually pretty simple:

Step 1: Have a 25+ year long systemic cheating scandal that allows players to attend school without actually attending school.

Step 2: Have literally zero punishment handed down from the governing body.

Step 3: Keep 1 and done recruits in "school" for 3 to 4 years

Step 4: Win a title!

Step 3: Snatch up a 2018 OAD Recruit that allegedly was offered $150K to attend the school he originally committed to.

Fixed it for you brother! You are spot on otherwise!

[Wander]

I learned my lesson in 2010, when I was convinced mid-season that you couldn't win a title with having 40% of your best lineup be a complete non-threat to score (other than off rebounds).

There's no magic formula, secret statistic, or specific style of play that's the key to winning a title, other than the generic statement that it helps to be very good at both offense and defense.

[Fish80]

The first rule of winning a title: put the ball in the hoop more than the other team.

(Of course, adjust number of hoops for 1, 2,or 3 points.)