Next year's team - who is on it?

[gofurman]

Current team -
1 Trevon Duval G 6-3 186 Fr. New Castle, Del. (IMG Academy [Fla.]) ASSUME GONE
2 Gary Trent, Jr. G 6-6 209 Fr. Columbus, Ohio (Prolific Prep [Calif.]) ASSUME GONE
---

Returning ?
20 Marques Bolden C 6-11 246 So. DeSoto, Texas (DeSoto) ? HOPE HE RETURNS - Great player
30 Antonio Vrankovic C 7-0 269 Jr. Zagreb, Croatia (Pine Crest School [Fla.])
12 Javin DeLaurier F 6-10 231 So. Shipman, Va. (Saint Anne's-Belfield) SHOULD PLAY SOME
41 Jack White F 6-7 226 So. Traralgon, Victoria, Australia (Australian Institute of Sport)
15 Alex O'Connell G 6-6 171 Fr. Roswell, Ga. (Milton) SHOULD PLAY SOME - Good player

NAME POS STATUS GRADE
Cam Reddish SF (3) Signed 96
R.J. Barrett SF (3) Signed 96
Zion Williamson PF (4) Committed 96
Tre Jones PG (1) Signed 93

So Jones is the PG??

Who are the shooters? O'Connell? Can Reddish shoot really well? Barrett? Is Jones a PG that can shoot too?



backups - not much time here:
14 Jordan Goldwire G 6-2 172 Fr. Norcross, Ga. (Norcross)
50 Justin Robinson F 6-9 198 So. San Antonio, Texas (San Antonio Christian Academy)
51 Mike Buckmire G 6-2 172 Fr. Blue Bell, Pa. (Germantown Friends School)
53 Brennan Besser G 6-5 190 Jr. Chicago, Ill. (Latin School)

[CDu]

If I were forced to guess, I'd say:

Bagley, Carter, Duval, and Trent all go pro along with Allen's graduation. So that leaves:

C: Bolden
PF: Williamson
SF: Reddish
SG: Barrett
PG: Jones
Backup big: DeLaurier
Backup guard: O'Connell
Other spot-minutes guys: White, Goldwire, Vrankovic
Walk-ons/non-recruited players: Robinson, Buckmire, Besser

Reddish is a bit of a Grant Hill type of player: incredibly versatile, capable of scoring at all 3 levels, not bad with the ball in his hands either. Not really a PG, but capable of filling in the ballhandling duties whenever Jones sits.

Barrett is a scorer at all 3 levels. A powerful wing player who can create his own shot, drive to the basket, and shoot a little from 3. Also a capable ballhandler, but definitely less of a facilitator than Reddish, who is definitely less of a facilitator than PGs are.

Williamson is a freak of nature. A bowling ball of a big, with not awful handle. Reminds me a little of Julius Randle in style, though he's a better leaper and even bigger/stronger. Kind of Charles Barkley-esque as well. Also quite capable of creating his own shot, either in the post or attacking off the dribble.

Jones is a bit of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type of guy. Solid athlete, but not spectacular run/jump athleticism. Not a great shooter. But just knows how to play. In some ways, he is a little like his older brother. Also a Jalen Brunson type of feel for the game, though not nearly as physically strong as Brunson (nor nearly as good a shooter).

It will be a team of guys who can all create their own shots. So it will feel a LOT like Team USA in that regard, with several interchangeable parts and scoring potential.

We may also have some of the same limitations as this year's team though, as none of the incoming guys are necessarily knock-down shooters (though Reddish has that kind of potential), and we'll again only really have one PG. So in that sense, it would be awesome if Duval and Trent came back. But I don't see either guy returning.

The good news is that Coach K knows how to work with a team of perimeter-oriented guys, whereas he hasn't had as much practice with two true post guys. Considering that we struggled to really maximize our two dominant post men this year, hopefully next year's team will be more familiar to Coach K.

[kAzE]

Jones is a bit of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type of guy. Solid athlete, but not spectacular run/jump athleticism. Not a great shooter. But just knows how to play. In some ways, he is a little like his older brother. Also a Jalen Brunson type of feel for the game, though not nearly as physically strong as Brunson (nor nearly as good a shooter).

This may be getting a little bit ahead of things, but what's your feel on Jones' NBA potential? Looking at 2019 NBA mock drafts, he doesn't appear to be a OAD prospect. I don't anticipate him being a 4 year player, but a 2 or 3 year guy, especially at the point guard position would be a breath of fresh air.

[CDu]

This may be getting a little bit ahead of things, but what's your feel on Jones' NBA potential? Looking at 2019 NBA mock drafts, he doesn't appear to be a OAD prospect. I don't anticipate him being a 4 year player, but a 2 or 3 year guy, especially at the point guard position would be a breath of fresh air.

I think he's a lot like his brother (who was also thought of as a multi-year guy). If the team does as well as the 2015 team did, I wouldn't rule him out as going pro (which I'd say of any top-10 recruit). But, in terms of his shooting and athleticism, he seems more like a multi-year guy. Perhaps moreso than even his brother (who was a better shooter than Tre is right now) was.

[Reddevil]

I think Javin gets overlooked a bit. He could be a very important presence next year especially defensively. I think the reason he played near the end instead of Bolden is that he could defend the mid range jumper better. He is quite a bit quicker, so if they have both, they can insert them as needed and of course have more fouls to give. Also Javin can play both center and forward. If he works on his offense over the summer, he could be really solid. I am not talking about being a 20 point guy, but a 12 point guy that can defend and do some of the dirty work. Every good team needs a guy like that. He will also be a junior and possibly a captain. He could be a guy that you feel good about seeing out there because good things happen.

[jv001]

I think Javin gets overlooked a bit. He could be a very important presence next year especially defensively. I think the reason he played near the end instead of Bolden is that he could defend the mid range jumper better. He is quite a bit quicker, so if they have both, they can insert them as needed and of course have more fouls to give. Also Javin can play both center and forward. If he works on his offense over the summer, he could be really solid. I am not talking about being a 20 point guy, but a 12 point guy that can defend and do some of the dirty work. Every good team needs a guy like that. He will also be a junior and possibly a captain. He could be a guy that you feel good about seeing out there because good things happen.

I hope you are correct and Javin scorers around ppg next season, but he's going to have to improve greatly on offense. Javin didn't have a good shooting form on FTs or outside shooting. He did not have good hands when getting the ball down low. He could be a very good defender if he didn't foul so much. I hope he does improve over the summer because we'll need him to be a good player if we don't land Montgomery. GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

If I were forced to guess, I'd say:

Bagley, Carter, Duval, and Trent all go pro along with Allen's graduation. So that leaves:

C: Bolden
PF: Williamson
SF: Reddish
SG: Barrett
PG: Jones
Backup big: DeLaurier
Backup guard: O'Connell
Other spot-minutes guys: White, Goldwire, Vrankovic
Walk-ons/non-recruited players: Robinson, Buckmire, Besser

Reddish is a bit of a Grant Hill type of player: incredibly versatile, capable of scoring at all 3 levels, not bad with the ball in his hands either. Not really a PG, but capable of filling in the ballhandling duties whenever Jones sits.

Barrett is a scorer at all 3 levels. A powerful wing player who can create his own shot, drive to the basket, and shoot a little from 3. Also a capable ballhandler, but definitely less of a facilitator than Reddish, who is definitely less of a facilitator than PGs are.

Williamson is a freak of nature. A bowling ball of a big, with not awful handle. Reminds me a little of Julius Randle in style, though he's a better leaper and even bigger/stronger. Kind of Charles Barkley-esque as well. Also quite capable of creating his own shot, either in the post or attacking off the dribble.

Jones is a bit of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type of guy. Solid athlete, but not spectacular run/jump athleticism. Not a great shooter. But just knows how to play. In some ways, he is a little like his older brother. Also a Jalen Brunson type of feel for the game, though not nearly as physically strong as Brunson (nor nearly as good a shooter).

It will be a team of guys who can all create their own shots. So it will feel a LOT like Team USA in that regard, with several interchangeable parts and scoring potential.

We may also have some of the same limitations as this year's team though, as none of the incoming guys are necessarily knock-down shooters (though Reddish has that kind of potential), and we'll again only really have one PG. So in that sense, it would be awesome if Duval and Trent came back. But I don't see either guy returning.

The good news is that Coach K knows how to work with a team of perimeter-oriented guys, whereas he hasn't had as much practice with two true post guys. Considering that we struggled to really maximize our two dominant post men this year, hopefully next year's team will be more familiar to Coach K.

Excellent, excellent post. Really sums up next year very well.

Assuming Duval doesn't come back, Reddish is the backup PG. And that's a great role for him, because it allows us to be really, really big (Reddish, Barrett, Zion, DeLaurier, Bolden for crazy size or Reddish, AOC, Barrett, Zion, Bolden/DeLaurier for great size and solid shooting).

To me, the question next year is shooting. We know Barrett is an excellent shooter and likely the best shooter from Day 1. Reddish has apparently improved in this field by he isn't knockdown like Barrett. Jones is an okay shooter, but his brother had a similar reputation coming into college and Tyus drastically improved as the season went on. I'm not sold on Zion as a shooter just yet. And DeLaurier is a disaster when it comes to shooting. I expect him to improve, but not become anywhere near reliable.

[scottdude8]

While trying to cheer myself up after the loss last night, two key thoughts came to mind:

1) Yes, we're probably going to be starting four freshmen again next season. But they're freshmen that fit a bit better in the mold of the types of players K typically coaches (positionless players that can play inside and out) as opposed to this season, where we never quite could figure out the best way to utilize two hyper-talented bigs who needed the ball in their hands (to me, that will always be the lingering sadness of this season, the "what could have been" factor if this team had another year to gel and figure out how to play together). I haven't paid as much attention to recruiting this year as I typically do, but from what I've seen it seems like Reddish, Williamson and Barrett all bear some similarities to Justice Winslow. That's some crazy versatility to have.

2) Barring something unexpected, we'll be returning a handful of guys that, at some point or another during the season, played decent minutes: Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell, White, Buckmire, Robinson, and to a lesser extent Vrank. Some on the board have said this previously, but it bears repeating: those seven could've won a couple of ACC games on their own this year. Next year could be a very deep team, with the important caveat that whether or not that comes to fruition is obviously up to K (I'm sure we'll end up with our typical 8 man rotation by the end of the season, but in my ideal situation I'd hope that DeLaurier, O'Connell, and White all get 10-15 minutes and Buckmire gets 5 or so as the backup PG). Compare that to this season, where Grayson was the ONLY player who had seen pivotal minutes consistently during his career, with Bolden and Vrank only showing minor flashes. For all the OAD complaints, K seems to have done a better job this year of finding and developing a few depth and program guys (although that could obviously change if there's an unexpected declaration or transfer, but I doubt it personally).

So while we're definitely looking at another up and down, OAD driven year next season, and although we won't have a senior leader like Grayson, we will have a deeper roster of players who have been in a Duke uniform and can challenge the starters in practice.

Side question (for those who follow recruiting carefully): what is the defensive potential of Reddish, Williamson, and Barrett? I would imagine that their versatility might allow us to go back to primarily man-to-man next season, but they could also potentially have trouble with smaller, quicker players.

[Duke31122]

I really like Javin and the player I think he can become. If he gets stronger and works on offense, he can be a force. K calls him the motor for a reason. To me, he has some Quinn Cook in him. I really think he can become a leader after being around for a couple of years and knowing the system.

I think next years Duke team could have two good bigs, if you look at Bolden and Delaurier. Both have size and contributed some big moments down the stretch. They just need to continue to get stronger and develope offensively. They won’t be a Bagley/Carter, but they will be better than what we’ve had in the past.

I think next years team could be better given the versatility and defensive skills the guys already possess. Bagley was awesome, but he really needed defensive work.

I am looking forward to seeing how fun that team can be. Apparently Barrett and Zion are good friends and talk everyday, kind of like how Tyus and Jackie were.

[Dukehky]

While trying to cheer myself up after the loss last night, two key thoughts came to mind:

1) Yes, we're probably going to be starting four freshmen again next season. But they're freshmen that fit a bit better in the mold of the types of players K typically coaches (positionless players that can play inside and out) as opposed to this season, where we never quite could figure out the best way to utilize two hyper-talented bigs who needed the ball in their hands (to me, that will always be the lingering sadness of this season, the "what could have been" factor if this team had another year to gel and figure out how to play together). I haven't paid as much attention to recruiting this year as I typically do, but from what I've seen it seems like Reddish, Williamson and Barrett all bear some similarities to Justice Winslow. That's some crazy versatility to have.

2) Barring something unexpected, we'll be returning a handful of guys that, at some point or another during the season, played decent minutes: Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell, White, Buckmire, Robinson, and to a lesser extent Vrank. Some on the board have said this previously, but it bears repeating: those seven could've won a couple of ACC games on their own this year. Next year could be a very deep team, with the important caveat that whether or not that comes to fruition is obviously up to K (I'm sure we'll end up with our typical 8 man rotation by the end of the season, but in my ideal situation I'd hope that DeLaurier, O'Connell, and White all get 10-15 minutes and Buckmire gets 5 or so as the backup PG). Compare that to this season, where Grayson was the ONLY player who had seen pivotal minutes consistently during his career, with Bolden and Vrank only showing minor flashes. For all the OAD complaints, K seems to have done a better job this year of finding and developing a few depth and program guys (although that could obviously change if there's an unexpected declaration or transfer, but I doubt it personally).

So while we're definitely looking at another up and down, OAD driven year next season, and although we won't have a senior leader like Grayson, we will have a deeper roster of players who have been in a Duke uniform and can challenge the starters in practice.

Side question (for those who follow recruiting carefully): what is the defensive potential of Reddish, Williamson, and Barrett? I would imagine that their versatility might allow us to go back to primarily man-to-man next season, but they could also potentially have trouble with smaller, quicker players.

I'm assuming you mean Goldwire here?

[Dukehky]

I hope you are correct and Javin scorers around ppg next season, but he's going to have to improve greatly on offense. Javin didn't have a good shooting form on FTs or outside shooting. He did not have good hands when getting the ball down low. He could be a very good defender if he didn't foul so much. I hope he does improve over the summer because we'll need him to be a good player if we don't land Montgomery. GoDuke!

Javin is not a very skilled offensive player. I can't really think of a comp. except maybe Hairston, but that's not fair because Javin is so much more athletic, longer, and taller, but offensively, that's kind of his comparison right now. He's gotta get a lot better on both sides of the ball. He fouls all the time and gets lost on D and he isn't just a net-0 on offense, he's a real negative. You don't have to guard him and his decision making with the ball unless it's an open lay-up is almost always a turnover.

Good news is he has a lot of room to improve!

[CDu]

I'm assuming you mean Goldwire here?

He has to have meant that.

I'm also highly skeptical that that group of seven (assuming Goldwire over Buckmire) would have won any ACC games this year. That's basically a bunch of "fifth guy on the floor" type role players, plus a shaky O'Connell and an inconsistent Bolden. At some point, you have to have guys who can be focal points of the offense in order to win games, and none of those guys are that.

But that's neither here nor there, as we aren't likely to ever ask White, Vrank, Robinson, or Goldwire to play major minutes. They are primarily practice players who can fill in for spot minutes here and there when injuries occur. But they're "fifth option on the floor" types.

[Owen Meany]

I have seen 3 point shooting specifically mentioned as Barrett's weakness. I believe, at this point, he is more of a scorer than a shooter (long range at least).

[scottdude8]

I'm assuming you mean Goldwire here?

Yup, that's a bad typo on my end, thanks!

[Reddevil]

I really like Javin and the player I think he can become. If he gets stronger and works on offense, he can be a force. K calls him the motor for a reason. To me, he has some Quinn Cook in him. I really think he can become a leader after being around for a couple of years and knowing the system.

I think next years Duke team could have two good bigs, if you look at Bolden and Delaurier. Both have size and contributed some big moments down the stretch. They just need to continue to get stronger and develope offensively. They won’t be a Bagley/Carter, but they will be better than what we’ve had in the past.

I think next years team could be better given the versatility and defensive skills the guys already possess. Bagley was awesome, but he really needed defensive work.

I am looking forward to seeing how fun that team can be. Apparently Barrett and Zion are good friends and talk everyday, kind of like how Tyus and Jackie were.

This is what I was trying to say and offensively if DeLaurier and Bolden just feast on put backs, and provide kick outs, that would be fine. One can get a dozen points a game just by doing that. (Of course it would help greatly to knock down the free throws that come with that territory)

[CDu]

I have seen 3 point shooting specifically mentioned as Barrett's weakness. I believe, at this point, he is more of a scorer than a shooter (long range at least).

Yep. Barrett has gotten a lot better as a shooter this year. But shooting is definitely the thing he does worst as a scorer. He can certainly make big shots from deep, but he's far from a shooter.

I kind of feel like Reddish is the better shooter of the two, though he is also not a true shooter.

Basically, none of the guys coming in are pure shooters. They are all better scorers than shooters. So shooting is definitely a potential concern if Trent goes (as expected). Really, O'Connell becomes the only true shooter on the team.

Now, hopefully some of those new guys continue to improve as shooters. But that's a definite concern for next year.

[kAzE]

Excellent, excellent post. Really sums up next year very well.

Assuming Duval doesn't come back, Reddish is the backup PG. And that's a great role for him, because it allows us to be really, really big (Reddish, Barrett, Zion, DeLaurier, Bolden for crazy size or Reddish, AOC, Barrett, Zion, Bolden/DeLaurier for great size and solid shooting).

To me, the question next year is shooting. We know Barrett is an excellent shooter and likely the best shooter from Day 1. Reddish has apparently improved in this field by he isn't knockdown like Barrett. Jones is an okay shooter, but his brother had a similar reputation coming into college and Tyus drastically improved as the season went on. I'm not sold on Zion as a shooter just yet. And DeLaurier is a disaster when it comes to shooting. I expect him to improve, but not become anywhere near reliable.

For some reason, I have those 2 flipped from your description. I see Barrett as just an okay shooter. He shoots around 60-70% from the foul line and low to mid 30s from the arc. Reddish to me projects as the better shooter both from distance and from the foul line.

To me, Barrett has a herky-jerky skill set and is much more of a "overpower you and get to the rim" type of scorer, while Cam's game is much smoother and has more finesse, with a pull up game and is a much more natural ball handler/passer.

[scottdude8]

He has to have meant that.

I'm also highly skeptical that that group of seven (assuming Goldwire over Buckmire) would have won any ACC games this year. That's basically a bunch of "fifth guy on the floor" type role players, plus a shaky O'Connell and an inconsistent Bolden. At some point, you have to have guys who can be focal points of the offense in order to win games, and none of those guys are that.

But that's neither here nor there, as we aren't likely to ever ask White, Vrank, Robinson, or Goldwire to play major minutes. They are primarily practice players who can fill in for spot minutes here and there when injuries occur. But they're "fifth option on the floor" types.

To be clear, the ACC games I was referring to would basically be home games against the Pitts of the league. I think that team could beat Pitt at home. That isn't saying very much, but it's a lot more than we could say of our returnees from last season.

With that clarification out of the way, I wholeheartedly agree with you that none of those guys are going to play major minutes. However, there is something to be said about having those type of guys on your team and seeing how they develop after being in the program for multiple years. I think many on this board probably said similar things about Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston back in the day... and while they were never stars, they ended up being important contributors on teams that would have been much less successful in their absence. Heck, think about an example from my Wolverines, Muhammad Ali Abdur Rahkman: he was a no-name recruit that Beilein found at the last minute that NOBODY expected to be more than a practice player (much like you were referring to), yet after developing in the program for four years he's one of the most important players in the Final Four as a senior.

All of that is a long-winded way of saying this: going into this season, I (and others) thought that the X-factor for this team would be if one of the returnees or less-heralded freshman (way back when we thought it might be Jordan Tucker!) surprised us and developed into a sixth man that provided major contributions. While Bolden and DeLaurier did their jobs admirably, injuries and limitations prevented them from really developing into that X-factor. However, with the larger pool of returnees with some experience presumably on next year's team, the odds of us finding a guy to provide that impact is much greater.

[CDu]

To be clear, the ACC games I was referring to would basically be home games against the Pitts of the league. I think that team could beat Pitt at home. That isn't saying very much, but it's a lot more than we could say of our returnees from last season.

I don't think that team beats Pitt, even at home. Just not enough offense, even against a bad Pitt team. But, again, that doesn't really matter.

With that clarification out of the way, I wholeheartedly agree with you that none of those guys are going to play major minutes. However, there is something to be said about having those type of guys on your team and seeing how they develop after being in the program for multiple years. I think many on this board probably said similar things about Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston back in the day... and while they were never stars, they ended up being important contributors on teams that would have been much less successful in their absence. Heck, think about an example from my Wolverines, Muhammad Ali Abdur Rahkman: he was a no-name recruit that Beilein found at the last minute that NOBODY expected to be more than a practice player (much like you were referring to), yet after developing in the program for four years he's one of the most important players in the Final Four as a senior.

Abdur-Rahkman was a 20mpg player from day one though, even on a team loaded with good options on the wings (Walton when Albrecht played PG, LeVert, Irvin). None of our backups besides O'Connell showed out like that. I really don't expect any of our returning guys besides O'Connell, Bolden, and DeLaurier to compete for significant minutes next year.

And Thornton and (especially) Hairston were much higher-rated recruits than all but O'Connell, Bolden, and DeLaurier. Heck, Hairston was higher rated than all but Bolden. And like you said, those guys were both "fifth guy on the floor" types. As an aside, they were also primarily on our two least successful teams: 2012 and 2014; Thornton was the 4th guard and Hairston was the 4th big on the 2013 team. Thornton played major (20+) minutes in 2012-14. Hairston never really played major minutes at Duke, but was an 8-12 mpg guy from 2012-14.

All of that is a long-winded way of saying this: going into this season, I (and others) thought that the X-factor for this team would be if one of the returnees or less-heralded freshman (way back when we thought it might be Jordan Tucker!) surprised us and developed into a sixth man that provided major contributions. While Bolden and DeLaurier did their jobs admirably, injuries and limitations prevented them from really developing into that X-factor. However, with the larger pool of returnees with some experience presumably on next year's team, the odds of us finding a guy to provide that impact is much greater.

But that's the thing: we had about as many returnees this year as last year. Last year, it was Allen, Bolden, DeLaurier, White, Vrankovic, and Robinson. This year it is Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell, White, Vrankovic, Robinson, and Goldwire. I'm not sure that the added year of experience for everyone plus the addition of Goldwire is enough to offset the loss of a senior Allen.

That's not to say next year is all doom and gloom. I think we'll be very good. I just don't expect significant contributions from anyone outside of Bolden, DeLaurier, and O'Connell.

[jimsumner]

Keep in mind that Duke is still recruiting E.C. Montgomery. Should Duke miss on him, I think a grad-student option will be in play. Perhaps, even if they don't miss on him.

Bolden is not guaranteed to return. If he does, then he, DeLaurier and O'Connell project to the rotation players next season. Any of White, Vrankovic, Goldwire and Robinson would have to make a big jump to get significant PT next season. A big, big jump.