Who's Leaving - Duke 2018

[FerryFor50]

I agree with this. Unless Trent suddenly improves in the following areas:
- ballhandling
- defense
- run/jump athleticism

He isn't likely to improve his draft stock. He's a shooter/scorer who doesn't really bring much else to the table right now. That's not a knock - shooting and scoring are pretty important skills. But he doesn't have great athleticism, doesn't have great court awareness when it comes to passing, and doesn't handle the ball well.

If he came back and showed improvements in those areas, he could improve his stock. But I think those are tough areas to improve.

With Duval, he is still learning how to play PG. His athleticism and court vision are fantastic, but his overall feel for the game and decision-making need work. As does his shooting. I think his traits are easier to improve than Trent's.

Now, I doubt either guy returns, but I think Duval has an easier path to a higher draft pick by returning than Trent does.

And I totally agree that playing time would not be a concern for either. Either would start, and even if both returned they would both be in the top-6 and get 25+ mpg (in that scenario, I'd guess Trent would be the sixth man). But I'd be very surprised if Duval returns, and fairly surprised if Trent returns.



Yeah, I should make clear that - even though he'll almost certainly be the 4th or 5th big (forgot Bamba) taken - he'll still likely go in the top-10. I really don't think there is much upside to him coming back. He could definitely get into the top-5 (and the top big) by returning, but it's probably not worth the risk of serious injury and of not performing well enough in a bigger role. I'd be really really surprised if he came back. It's hard to argue with a top-10 pick if your goal is the NBA.

What Carter needs work on is emotional maturity and basketball IQ (recognition of double teams and passing out) - both of which are stuff he can get more out of at the next level.

[Ian]

I agree with this. Unless Trent suddenly improves in the following areas:
- ballhandling
- defense
- run/jump athleticism

He isn't likely to improve his draft stock. He's a shooter/scorer who doesn't really bring much else to the table right now. That's not a knock - shooting and scoring are pretty important skills. But he doesn't have great athleticism, doesn't have great court awareness when it comes to passing, and doesn't handle the ball well.

If he came back and showed improvements in those areas, he could improve his stock. But I think those are tough areas to improve.

With Duval, he is still learning how to play PG. His athleticism and court vision are fantastic, but his overall feel for the game and decision-making need work. As does his shooting. I think his traits are easier to improve than Trent's.

Now, I doubt either guy returns, but I think Duval has an easier path to a higher draft pick by returning than Trent does.

And I totally agree that playing time would not be a concern for either. Either would start, and even if both returned they would both be in the top-6 and get 25+ mpg (in that scenario, I'd guess Trent would be the sixth man). But I'd be very surprised if Duval returns, and fairly surprised if Trent returns.



Yeah, I should make clear that - even though he'll almost certainly be the 4th or 5th big (forgot Bamba) taken - he'll still likely go in the top-10. I really don't think there is much upside to him coming back. He could definitely get into the top-5 (and the top big) by returning, but it's probably not worth the risk of serious injury and of not performing well enough in a bigger role. I'd be really really surprised if he came back. It's hard to argue with a top-10 pick if your goal is the NBA.

I think top lottery picks leaving early is fine. Heck I'm fine with any projected 1st rounder leaving. But it does bother me that even 2nd rounders are expected to leave at Duke now. Mainly because we had to recruit over them because they were expected to leave so now they are being pushed out the door because there isn't even room for them. Just seems like a very weird dynamic.

[MChambers]

Sorry, but I guess I am grumpy today. (Why would that be?)

You shoudln't title the thread or your post, "Whose Leaving." It's "Who Is Leaving?" or "Who's Leaving?"

Isn't it "Who's On First" or "Whose On First'?

[uh_no]

Isn't it "Who's On First" or "Whose On First'?

no, it's always "who's on first" consider

"what is the name of the guy who plays first base"
"who"

[jimsumner]

I think some folks are grasping at straws here. Duval made it abundantly clear after the Carolina game that he had played his last game in Cameron. No ambiguity at all. And Trent is projecting as a first-round draft pick. I don't expect him back.

[MCFinARL]

I would say 4 of the starters are gone 100% with the only question being Trent. Allen, Bags and Carter are obvious. Duval is gonna test well at the combine due to his athleticism and his game is better suited to the open floor and speed of the NBA. I think he will stay in if he even gets a 2nd round guarantee.

Now Trent on the other hand... average size, average athleticism and streaky shooter who wasn't strong enough in the paint. He could return and make a push for a lottery pick next year if he becomes a more consistent shooter, defends better and adds a floater to his game.

There is a huge disconnect these days between the NBA and college basketball, that is only partially explained by the one-and-done players. Quite simply, NBA evaluators don't value experience as highly as potential. The NBA would rather train a young player in the league than see them develop in the college game. For the McDonald's All-Americans that Duke recruits, the only questions are 1) what is my current NBA value, and 2) would that value significantly increase if I return to school. For the most part, the answer to #2 is usually no.

Take for example Gary Trent Jr. The NBA knows what he is. He is a spot up 3 shooter, good mid-range game, average to below average 1on1 defender, average ball handler/creator, and gives very little at the rim scoring. None of that is likely to change if he comes back to school. I don't mean that as a negative. He can put the ball in the basket at an NBA level, and that has value. He will likely be a back half of the first round, early 2nd candidate. But there is little upside coming back to college.

The only player in our starting 5 that I can make an argument for returning is Duval. I think his NBA value right now is significantly lower than his talent level, given that he struggled at times this season. If Duval comes back and improves his free throw percentage and field goal percentages >10%, and decreases his TO ratio, I honestly think he would see his draft stock go way up. Duval is a below average shooter for an NBA point guard, right now. Unlike Ball, however, he doesn't have the assists or rebounds to make up for it. He has two options, come back to Duke and work on his shooting (and his game management to some extent) or take the risk that he gets drafted 1st round and improve his game in the NBA. He certainly seems like a G-league player right now to me. Look at how badly the 1st year PGs have played in the NBA this season. The risk of returning is whether he can mesh with the new group of players. Personally, I think he could start alongside Tre Jones, but it is a risk. My guess is if he gets a first round grade, he's gone.

3/4 of the players drafted in the NBA Draft this year wont be ready for the NBA. That's the sad fact. Almost all of them would benefit from another year of learning at this level, but that's not the game anymore. It's sad that these kids are having to make a form of risk/value assessment at this early stage of their careers. Personally, I love the idea of allowing kids to declare for the draft, with leaving the option to return to school if they are not picked in the first round. I know NBA teams would hate that, but in the long run, I think it would be better for both college and the NBA.

I agree with most of your post, though I think the drafting on potential argument works for Duval as well as for Trent. The only way I see either coming back, but especially Duval, is if they hear back from the NBA that there are specific things they must work on and improve in college before they have a shot at making an NBA roster.

[rtnorthrup]

I agree with most of your post, though I think the drafting on potential argument works for Duval as well as for Trent. The only way I see either coming back, but especially Duval, is if they hear back from the NBA that there are specific things they must work on and improve in college before they have a shot at making an NBA roster.

totally agree. My only concern for Duval is that he is a 60% FT shooter. I think this is a huge red flag for NBA teams, for a guard who shoots FTs so poorly. I think this could absolutely sabotage his NBA draft stock. If he came back and got that up to 75%, I think you are looking at an entirely different draft profile for him. That's what I mean by a player who could significantly change his draft profile.

That said, I agree with jimsumner, they are all gone.

[AtlDuke72]

[QUOTE=weezie;1059143]I think he's due to stay because he's not 100% yet. That brace isn't just for decoration. Another year of strength and hardening and lateral moving improvement might push him into the top 15.
I wonder if he has the court personality of a monster, I see him more as a finesse guy. He'll be working on the outlet passes this summer wherever he is.


Bolden seems like a good team player and I am rooting for him. Having said that, I am baffled by all of the comments for the last two years that imply he will be a top NBA pick or a "monster" if he works hard this summer and plays at Duke next year. I have seen a few good moments and that is about it. He missed two very short shots last night and then sat on the bench. Coach K played him very limited minutes and played Javin ahead of him last night and at the end of the game. I cannot see an NBA team drafting him. I think he should stay and prove himself if he is really that good. Doing so could make him a great deal of money .

[whereinthehellami]

Think they are all gone and that Bolden is looking for anyway to go. This draft is just loaded with big guys that can flat out play though. Bagley, Carter, Ayton, Bamba, Porter, Wagner, Spellman, and Jackson off the top of my head. I'm sure their are some international guys too.

[jacone21]

I think top lottery picks leaving early is fine. Heck I'm fine with any projected 1st rounder leaving. But it does bother me that even 2nd rounders are expected to leave at Duke now. Mainly because we had to recruit over them because they were expected to leave so now they are being pushed out the door because there isn't even room for them. Just seems like a very weird dynamic.

Yeah feels like UK circa 2010. Not really what I want for Duke basketball, but it is what it is. I'll still be watching with interest next season.

[Dukehky]

I think some folks are grasping at straws here. Duval made it abundantly clear after the Carolina game that he had played his last game in Cameron. No ambiguity at all. And Trent is projecting as a first-round draft pick. I don't expect him back.

I agree with your take on Duval. He's also a better fit in the NBA.

Other than nbadraftnet, I haven't seen Trent on any NBA draft boards, especially the ones I follow pretty closely and respect like O'Connor at the Ringer and Vecenie at the Athletic, Mike Schmitz and Givony at ESPN. I think he could improve his stock by coming back, but I agree that he is probably gone. Which is a bummer to me. He would be the leader and I think the leading scorer (I know people will disagree with that).

I said previously on this thread that I expect him to leave. Hard to stay when your best friends are leaving. Not to say AOC and he aren't buds, but he came in with Wendell as a top 10 recruit, expecting to be 1 and done, I don't think enough has gone against him to to change his mind.

K and his dad will be reasonable in how they give him his feedback. If he still wants to go pro and thinks that's the best thing to do, then good on him. I hope to see him in a Duke uniform again, but I doubt it happens.

[Owen Meany]

I would be shocked if Duvall came back and pleasantly surprised if Trent did. But I am always baffled by the suggestion that someone might leave because they are pushed out by an incoming freshman. I would be very surprised if someone felt they were good enough to go pro but not good enough to beat out an incoming high school kid with no college experience. Two off seasons ago it was said that Luke Kennard would be relegated to the bench by Frank Jackson - but good news, he would be our last great 4 year player. Last year it was said Jackson was going pro because he couldn't compete with world-beater Duvall. This summer, Duvall and Trent won't be able to find time at Duke so they are heading to be first round picks in the NBA. If you can play, You will get playing time - especially on a team that badly needs experience.

I fear next year we will really feel the loss of Trent. Duke wasn't a great 3 point shooting team and will posse Allen and Trent. Even Carter and Bagley were able to hit at a respectable clip that helped at least a little to alleviate the packed in post.

[CDu]

I would be shocked if Duvall came back and pleasantly surprised if Trent did. But I am always baffled by the suggestion that someone might leave because they are pushed out by an incoming freshman. I would be very surprised if someone felt they were good enough to go pro but not good enough to beat out an incoming high school kid with no college experience. Two off seasons ago it was said that Luke Kennard would be relegated to the bench by Frank Jackson - but good news, he would be our last great 4 year player. Last year it was said Jackson was going pro because he couldn't compete with world-beater Duvall. This summer, Duvall and Trent won't be able to find time at Duke so they are heading to be first round picks in the NBA. If you can play, You will get playing time - especially on a team that badly needs experience.

I fear next year we will really feel the loss of Trent. Duke wasn't a great 3 point shooting team and will posse Allen and Trent. Even Carter and Bagley were able to hit at a respectable clip that helped at least a little to alleviate the packed in post.

Duval, not Duvall.

I do agree that losing Trent will be a difficult loss to replace. We are very possibly going to be a worse 3pt shooting team than this year's squad. Though, to be fair, this year's team was a solid 3pt shooting team (37% on the year, top-70 nationally). But I do worry that next year's team won't be that good at it.

[Dukehky]

Duval, not Duvall.

I do agree that losing Trent will be a difficult loss to replace. We are very possibly going to be a worse 3pt shooting team than this year's squad. Though, to be fair, this year's team was a solid 3pt shooting team (37% on the year, top-70 nationally). But I do worry that next year's team won't be that good at it.

I wonder how much of this is reputation though? Grayson didn't have a great year shooting the ball from deep after the first couple months of the season. Trent was super streaky. Duval was pretty bad and Bagley and Carter were pretty, meh.

Tre Barrett and Cam can all make 3s. Do they come in reputations as knock down shooters? No. But it's possible, that in the aggregate, when compared to Grayson, Trent, AND Duval, that' they're better. Zion, I think is going to be about like Bagley in 3 point shooting percentage, although I expect him to take more. I'm not really sure why I expect that, but whatever.

O'Connell will play more, one would assume, which would give us a bump in shooting. Joe Girard is still out there, and that dude can shoot it, although we would have to see if he could play even if he were on the team due to defensive issues.

The rebounding is what concerns me for next year. We'll see though. We'll have the talent.

[Dukebasketball2020]

Perfect guy to bring in as a grad transfer next year 6'5 Chattanooga guard Nat Dixon averaged 13.8 points per game shot 39.5 % from 3 and 74% FT shooter also averaged 4.6 rebounds

[jimsumner]

Perfect guy to bring in as a grad transfer next year 6'5 Chattanooga guard Nat Dixon averaged 13.8 points per game shot 39.5 % from 3 and 74% FT shooter also averaged 4.6 rebounds

Can he get into grad school at Duke?

Because that is a factor and a reason why names like Reid Travis (Stanford) and Makai Mason (originally Yale) keep popping up, the assumption of academic excellence.

I hope this doesn't offend anyone, but this isn't getting a grad transfer into Louisville or NC State.

The Ivies don't give medical hardships and Ivy-League student/athletes tend to be smarter than the average bear. Lots of Ivy-League athletes with a year of eligibility remaining, just not at their current school.

Seems like a good pond for Duke to fish.

And Joe Girard, mentioned up-thread, is class of 2019.

[CDu]

I wonder how much of this is reputation though? Grayson didn't have a great year shooting the ball from deep after the first couple months of the season. Trent was super streaky. Duval was pretty bad and Bagley and Carter were pretty, meh.

The stats aren't reputation. We shot 37% on the season this year, which was top-70 nationally. And while Bagley and Carter might not have looked fluid as shooters, they both shot it at a VERY high percentage. Bagley hit 39.7% of 3s, Carter 41.3%. Trent (40.2%) and Allen (37.0%) were certainly streaky, but their season averages from 3 were both good. Among players who attempted at least 25 3s this year, only Duval shot below 37%. And only Duval and Allen shot below 39.7%. It was a pretty darn good 3pt shooting team on

Tre Barrett and Cam can all make 3s. Do they come in reputations as knock down shooters? No. But it's possible, that in the aggregate, when compared to Grayson, Trent, AND Duval, that' they're better. Zion, I think is going to be about like Bagley in 3 point shooting percentage, although I expect him to take more. I'm not really sure why I expect that, but whatever.

O'Connell will play more, one would assume, which would give us a bump in shooting. Joe Girard is still out there, and that dude can shoot it, although we would have to see if he could play even if he were on the team due to defensive issues.

I would be shocked if Williamson shoots 39.7% from 3 next year. He's considered even less of a shooter than Bagley or Carter was. And as I noted above, those two guys shot the 3 extremely well this year.

And while it is possible that Jones, Reddish, and Barrett can match Duval, Trent, and Allen from 3, I wouldn't bet heavily on it. I certainly don't anticipate Reddish and Barrett matching Trent and Allen from 3, so it would come down to how much better Jones is at shooting than Duval was.

Again, I'm not saying they won't wind up a good shooting team. Just that I think it's a legitimate question with the group coming in.

The rebounding is what concerns me for next year. We'll see though. We'll have the talent.

See, I'm actually not very concerned about our rebounding. Bolden and DeLaurier should hold their own. Williamson is a very good rebounder. Barrett is a terrific rebounder for a wing. Reddish is also a good rebounder. So while we won't be as tall as this year's team, I think we'll be fine on the glass. It will just come from a wider range of guys rather than just 1 or 2 guys like this year.

[Troublemaker]

Perfect guy to bring in as a grad transfer next year 6'5 Chattanooga guard Nat Dixon averaged 13.8 points per game shot 39.5 % from 3 and 74% FT shooter also averaged 4.6 rebounds

Yeah, so this guy posted a pretty pedestrian 106 offensive rating on pretty pedestrian usage (19.6%) on a 10-23 Chattanooga team in the Southern Conference. I don't see him translating as a Duke rotation player.

If you're going to dream about shooters, dream big. What we could REALLY use is a stretch-5 to complement all of our ball-handlers next season. Think about Mike Daum. Frankly, if we could pull in Daum, I wouldn't really care what the roster ripple effects would be as far who goes pro, transfers, etc. That would be a FUN team to watch if Daum is the stretch-5. But I still don't anticipate us being active on the grad transfer market.

[Natty_B]

Can he get into grad school at Duke?

Because that is a factor and a reason why names like Reid Travis (Stanford) and Makai Mason (originally Yale) keep popping up, the assumption of academic excellence.

I hope this doesn't offend anyone, but this isn't getting a grad transfer into Louisville or NC State.

The Ivies don't give medical hardships and Ivy-League student/athletes tend to be smarter than the average bear. Lots of Ivy-League athletes with a year of eligibility remaining, just not at their current school.

Seems like a good pond for Duke to fish.

And Joe Girard, mentioned up-thread, is class of 2019.

Probably true although not Makai Mason specifically as he's already going to Baylor. There will be TONS of dudes going this route in the next weeks.

[CDu]

Can he get into grad school at Duke?

Because that is a factor and a reason why names like Reid Travis (Stanford) and Makai Mason (originally Yale) keep popping up, the assumption of academic excellence.

I hope this doesn't offend anyone, but this isn't getting a grad transfer into Louisville or NC State.

The Ivies don't give medical hardships and Ivy-League student/athletes tend to be smarter than the average bear. Lots of Ivy-League athletes with a year of eligibility remaining, just not at their current school.

Seems like a good pond for Duke to fish.

I would honestly not find the "could he get into grad school" a major hurdle. Not saying that Dixon would be on the radar, just that I can't imagine a kid who Duke wanted not being able to get into school. We got a JuCo transfer into undergrad (he backed out before coming of course), which is undoubtedly a harder hurdle than some of Duke's grad programs.

These types of things just seem to somehow work themselves out. And it isn't like most of these guys are going to have such standout academic resumes to get them into grad school straight out of undergrad on their academic merit alone, anyway. That isn't meant to discredit their academic performance. Just that (a) they tend to be filtered to the easiest majors, (b) tend to not be on the same level of student as the general population to begin with, and (c) are asked to devote WAY more of their time to their sport than their studies, such that even if (a) and (b) weren't true, it's hard to stand out academically. So I get the sense that most (not all, but most) of those guys get into grad programs because of their additional resume-builder that they'd be a high-profile athlete that the program can add to their alumni rosters.

That being said, I would expect that - if we needed a big and he was amenable to grad transfer - Travis does make the most sense. For one thing, he's really good. For another, we recruited him out of high school, so we know there is familiarity with the program. For another, he played with Tre Jones' brother, so there is probably a familiarity with Tre and (in the off-chance he returned) Trent.