Who's Leaving - Duke 2018

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Not to respond off-topic, but yes, in his senior season and, to a lesser extent, his junior season, JJ could score in multiple ways. In 2004, however, which was the year you specifically referenced, sophomore JJ was an exceptionally dangerous shooting specialist complementing Duhon, Ewing, Deng, and Shelden. Trent is not in that same conversation.

Sophomore year Redick - 39.5% from 3(7 shots per game), attempting 4 2pt shots per game @ 47%.

Freshmen year Trent jr - 40.2% from 3(6.5 shots per game), attempting 5 2pt shots per game @ 43%.

Imo, Gary Trent Jr, if he were to return, should most definitely be projected to have a “2004 Redick-like” year, and maybe even better.

[Troublemaker]

Personally, I'm not sure if Bolden will be ready for 30+ minutes a game next year, but if he is, he'll be a monster.

If I were Duke I would persue some big's that are grad transfers. Bolden may start next year but you never know is he gonna stay healthy? out of foul trouble? He def isn't ready for 30 minutes a night. Davier is decent but you get no offense out of him. Hopefully we land EJ Montgomery.

Marques wouldn't have to play 30+ minutes. Javin and potentially Zion will be part of that center rotation.

I think Marques would start and play about 20-24 mpg. That's the next, reasonable step for him. He'll need a big, healthy offseason to get there.

[Dukehky]

Whole starting 5 gone.

Wouldn't be totally shocked to see some other departures, although I think it's unlikely. Don't know who or why, but gotta think there are some dudes on the bench who want to play.

[IrishDevil]

Sophomore year Redick - 39.5% from 3(7 shots per game), attempting 4 2pt shots per game @ 47%.

Freshmen year Trent jr - 40.2% from 3(6.5 shots per game), attempting 5 2pt shots per game @ 43%.

Imo, Gary Trent Jr, if he were to return, should most definitely be projected to have a “2004 Redick-like” year, and maybe even better.

I'll admit, my perception of Gary's shooting was off - when he was on, he was dangerous, but his shot seemed to wander off fairly often, and that led me to discount his admirable shooting percentage.

But, what you said was:

JJ Redick was much more than just a 3-point shooter. He was a prolific, crafty, scorer of the ball.

When I’m comparing Trent to Redick, it’s that scoring ability(shooting, FT’s, drives, floaters) that I’m referencing.

Both from my memory and from the stats you cite, JJ was a three point specialist who hit less than two shots inside the arc per game, not a prolific, crafty scorer of the ball. 2004 JJ was a bomber to whom you also got the ball at the end of the game so you could watch your opponents cry after intentionally fouling. He developed his deadlier mid-range and driving game later in his career.

Trent might have it in him to become a JJ-like shooter if he gains more consistency - again, he is solid percentage-wise, just super streaky right now, and his FT percentage is actually encouraging in this regard - but to become 2004 JJ, he would also have to not improve his game inside the arc at all and use it a little less often. I agree with your original post, that Gary could absolutely become a weapon next season, but I think that weapon would likely be a less focused, more multi-faceted weapon than 2004 JJ.

[killerleft]

Why does everyone assume Jones is better than Duval? A year ago we were salivating over Duval as being the point guard of our dreams, the missing piece that we didn’t have the previous season. We drooled over his mix tapes and imagined him being the next guy to lead us to a title.

This can't be emphasized enough. I would assume that Duval will have to LOSE the point guard position before Jones can take it.

The whole shebang depends on how Coach K decides to use Duval (if he returns).

Sadly, I think Trevon is gone. If he leaves, TREY will have all the pressure on HIS shoulders.

Come back, Trevon!

[rtnorthrup]

There is a huge disconnect these days between the NBA and college basketball, that is only partially explained by the one-and-done players. Quite simply, NBA evaluators don't value experience as highly as potential. The NBA would rather train a young player in the league than see them develop in the college game. For the McDonald's All-Americans that Duke recruits, the only questions are 1) what is my current NBA value, and 2) would that value significantly increase if I return to school. For the most part, the answer to #2 is usually no.

Take for example Gary Trent Jr. The NBA knows what he is. He is a spot up 3 shooter, good mid-range game, average to below average 1on1 defender, average ball handler/creator, and gives very little at the rim scoring. None of that is likely to change if he comes back to school. I don't mean that as a negative. He can put the ball in the basket at an NBA level, and that has value. He will likely be a back half of the first round, early 2nd candidate. But there is little upside coming back to college.

The only player in our starting 5 that I can make an argument for returning is Duval. I think his NBA value right now is significantly lower than his talent level, given that he struggled at times this season. If Duval comes back and improves his free throw percentage and field goal percentages >10%, and decreases his TO ratio, I honestly think he would see his draft stock go way up. Duval is a below average shooter for an NBA point guard, right now. Unlike Ball, however, he doesn't have the assists or rebounds to make up for it. He has two options, come back to Duke and work on his shooting (and his game management to some extent) or take the risk that he gets drafted 1st round and improve his game in the NBA. He certainly seems like a G-league player right now to me. Look at how badly the 1st year PGs have played in the NBA this season. The risk of returning is whether he can mesh with the new group of players. Personally, I think he could start alongside Tre Jones, but it is a risk. My guess is if he gets a first round grade, he's gone.

3/4 of the players drafted in the NBA Draft this year wont be ready for the NBA. That's the sad fact. Almost all of them would benefit from another year of learning at this level, but that's not the game anymore. It's sad that these kids are having to make a form of risk/value assessment at this early stage of their careers. Personally, I love the idea of allowing kids to declare for the draft, with leaving the option to return to school if they are not picked in the first round. I know NBA teams would hate that, but in the long run, I think it would be better for both college and the NBA.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Some interesting perspective from Wendell's mom, regarding one and one, the NBA, and Duke.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theunde...ight-move/amp/

[CDu]

Some interesting perspective from Wendell's mom, regarding one and one, the NBA, and Duke.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theunde...ight-move/amp/

I would love to see Carter come back next year, given the depth of high-quality bigs in year's draft class - where he'll likely be the 4th big man taken behind Ayton, Bagley, and Jaren Jackson Jr (not kidding, the scouts love his athleticism as a "modern big" - and the dearth of bigs next year. But I'd be REALLY surprised to see any of this year's starters back on next year's team.

[kAzE]

Of the OAD guys, I'm going to miss Wendell the most. He was our most important player all year, and we were consistently a worse team when he wasn't on the floor. Bagley got all the hype and accolades, but Wendell was the glue that made it all work. I'm very sad that he's played his last game for Duke.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Any rumors regarding our coaching staff? I hope they are all coming back.

SoC al

[flyingdutchdevil]

Of the OAD guys, I'm going to miss Wendell the most. He was our most important player all year, and we were consistently a worse team when he wasn't on the floor. Bagley got all the hype and accolades, but Wendell was the glue that made it all work. I'm very sad that he's played his last game for Duke.

Same. Duval is my "favorite", but that's more of a product of being PG-less the last 2 years and DBR ripping on Duval over the last 7 months.

Wendell isn't coming back. But it would be nice if he did!

A line-up of Jones-Barrett-Reddish-Zion-Carter would be insane.

[Sir Stealth]

Some interesting perspective from Wendell's mom, regarding one and one, the NBA, and Duke.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theunde...ight-move/amp/

I agree that it's interesting to get this level of insight into the Carter family mindset here. It's also easy to see how the headliner "college basketball is a con" comment is going to overshadow the points that Mrs. Carter is actually making. There is also a disconnect here with how much Mrs. Carter seems to have valued the Duke experience and the major college basketball experience while still publicly characterizing the whole thing to a "con."

I agree with her that the top players like Wendell should be able to go straight to the NBA without being forced to do a stopover year in college, and that there are major problems with the forced amateurism of the NCAA and compensation of top players. That being said, for a family that emphasized the educational element and acknowledges the benefits and emotional impact of the big stage that college basketball provided Wendell, it's a little bit lacking in nuance to use the dismissive word "con." It's also easy to see how people could equate "college basketball is a con for making the best players play for less than their value" with "Duke basketball is a con." After all, Duke is a big part of college basketball. And most participants in college basketball, who share the benefits of the big stage and may obtain the educational benefits (as long as they aren't defrauded by schools like UNC), do not share the earning potential out of high school that Wendell would have had. So the inevitable reduction of Mrs. Carter's post-game feelings to the "con" headline is unfortunate.

[UrinalCake]

the only questions are 1) what is my current NBA value, and 2) would that value significantly increase if I return to school. For the most part, the answer to #2 is usually no.

100% agree with the first part of your statement, but I disagree with regards to Trent. I think his value could absolutely go up if he comes back for another year. He is in the 40's in the latest mock drafts, which means no guaranteed contract (although most second rounders do sign), playing summer league ball and then the G league unless he somehow explodes or the team that drafts him has injuries. If he comes back for another year he could easily vault into the first round or conceivably even the lottery. Luke is really the best example that I keep bringing up. Trent shot a better percentage from three as a freshman, but both were wildly inconsistent and lacked NBA skill. Trent right now is simply a spot up three point shooter. He can't catch and shoot, he can't shoot off the dribble, he can't create his own shot, and he doesn't have a quick release. Those things take time to develop. He has shown some good midrange game but he can't finish at the rim and he is an average college defender at best. Like Luke, he could come back and blow up even on a team loaded with other talent and become a lottery pick. OTOH he could go the Frank Jackson route and take his chances developing in the G-league. The decision could go either way.

I personally strongly disagree with this notion that he or Duval HAS to go because they won't get any playing time if they stay. First of all, if they're not good enough to play over or alongside some highly rated freshmen, then what does that say about their ability to compete among G-league players, much less NBA players? Secondly, every year we assume that incoming freshmen are going to be better than the upperclassmen. Sometimes it is true, but we of all people should understand the value of experience. And thirdly, we currently project to have a very talented starting five but little to no bench. K loves to play small, much moreso than he loves to play big. So even if BOTH Trent and Duval came back (which I know isn't going to happen) I think there's enough minutes at the 1-4 for the three incoming guards/wings, Alex, some of Zion's minutes, plus those two.

[Ian]

I agree that it's interesting to get this level of insight into the Carter family mindset here. It's also easy to see how the headliner "college basketball is a con" comment is going to overshadow the points that Mrs. Carter is actually making. There is also a disconnect here with how much Mrs. Carter seems to have valued the Duke experience and the major college basketball experience while still publicly characterizing the whole thing to a "con."

I agree with her that the top players like Wendell should be able to go straight to the NBA without being forced to do a stopover year in college, and that there are major problems with the forced amateurism of the NCAA and compensation of top players. That being said, for a family that emphasized the educational element and acknowledges the benefits and emotional impact of the big stage that college basketball provided Wendell, it's a little bit lacking in nuance to use the dismissive word "con." It's also easy to see how people could equate "college basketball is a con for making the best players play for less than their value" with "Duke basketball is a con." After all, Duke is a big part of college basketball. And most participants in college basketball, who share the benefits of the big stage and may obtain the educational benefits (as long as they aren't defrauded by schools like UNC), do not share the earning potential out of high school that Wendell would have had. So the inevitable reduction of Mrs. Carter's post-game feelings to the "con" headline is unfortunate.

I'll give her the benefit of the doubt that she used "con" in th context of discussing "pros and cons", as in, college basketball is a negative factor when considering a potential professional NBA career, and not "con" to mean it's a fraud.

[UrinalCake]

It's also easy to see how people could equate "college basketball is a con for making the best players play for less than their value" with "Duke basketball is a con."

Her full quote was "If you look at the pros and the cons, college basketball is a big con." I interpret her use of the word "con" to mean "a negative," not a con in the sense that she is being conned or swindled out of something. She describes the positives and negatives of going to college and says that the negatives outweigh the positives - yes you can improve your draft stock by playing well, but you can also lose stock by being exposed or by getting injured.

[PackMan97]

The college game is a big con as well when you think about the restrictions on "time with coaches" and other support staff, as well as the time commitments to school.

In the pro game, it's all about the game with the only restriction being hard hard the athlete is willing to work.

[rtnorthrup]

100% agree with the first part of your statement, but I disagree with regards to Trent. I think his value could absolutely go up if he comes back for another year. He is in the 40's in the latest mock drafts, which means no guaranteed contract (although most second rounders do sign), playing summer league ball and then the G league unless he somehow explodes or the team that drafts him has injuries. If he comes back for another year he could easily vault into the first round or conceivably even the lottery. Luke is really the best example that I keep bringing up. Trent shot a better percentage from three as a freshman, but both were wildly inconsistent and lacked NBA skill. Trent right now is simply a spot up three point shooter. He can't catch and shoot, he can't shoot off the dribble, he can't create his own shot, and he doesn't have a quick release. Those things take time to develop. He has shown some good midrange game but he can't finish at the rim and he is an average college defender at best. Like Luke, he could come back and blow up even on a team loaded with other talent and become a lottery pick. OTOH he could go the Frank Jackson route and take his chances developing in the G-league. The decision could go either way.

I personally strongly disagree with this notion that he or Duval HAS to go because they won't get any playing time if they stay. First of all, if they're not good enough to play over or alongside some highly rated freshmen, then what does that say about their ability to compete among G-league players, much less NBA players? Secondly, every year we assume that incoming freshmen are going to be better than the upperclassmen. Sometimes it is true, but we of all people should understand the value of experience. And thirdly, we currently project to have a very talented starting five but little to no bench. K loves to play small, much moreso than he loves to play big. So even if BOTH Trent and Duval came back (which I know isn't going to happen) I think there's enough minutes at the 1-4 for the three incoming guards/wings, Alex, some of Zion's minutes, plus those two.

I think if Trent and Duval come back, they absolutely both start, and both would play significant roles on next year's team. I just think that only Duval can significantly change his draft profile, if he can prove to NBA scouts that his shooting will improve. I'm sure Trent will get better at the things he already does, but I don't see him adding a new skill set.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I would love to see Carter come back next year, given the depth of high-quality bigs in year's draft class - where he'll likely be the 4th big man taken behind Ayton, Bagley, and Jaren Jackson Jr (not kidding, the scouts love his athleticism as a "modern big" - and the dearth of bigs next year. But I'd be REALLY surprised to see any of this year's starters back on next year's team.

Carter is interesting case. He pulled the "Un-Dunleavy" in this tournament in my opinion....his inattention to detail yesterday was frustrating. I really like this guy....not sure he's really pro ready yet. Then again, it's up to the scouts. If they deem him first rounder, he should go.

[FerryFor50]

I would love to see Carter come back next year, given the depth of high-quality bigs in year's draft class - where he'll likely be the 4th big man taken behind Ayton, Bagley, and Jaren Jackson Jr (not kidding, the scouts love his athleticism as a "modern big" - and the dearth of bigs next year. But I'd be REALLY surprised to see any of this year's starters back on next year's team.

Loved Carter, not just for his skillset, but also for how much he cared. He wore his heart on his sleeve all year, and I appreciated that.

But yea, he's likely gone. And honestly, he should go. Get paid!

[CDu]

I think if Trent and Duval come back, they absolutely both start, and both would play significant roles on next year's team. I just think that only Duval can significantly change his draft profile, if he can prove to NBA scouts that his shooting will improve. I'm sure Trent will get better at the things he already does, but I don't see him adding a new skill set.

I agree with this. Unless Trent suddenly improves in the following areas:
- ballhandling
- defense
- run/jump athleticism

He isn't likely to improve his draft stock. He's a shooter/scorer who doesn't really bring much else to the table right now. That's not a knock - shooting and scoring are pretty important skills. But he doesn't have great athleticism, doesn't have great court awareness when it comes to passing, and doesn't handle the ball well.

If he came back and showed improvements in those areas, he could improve his stock. But I think those are tough areas to improve.

With Duval, he is still learning how to play PG. His athleticism and court vision are fantastic, but his overall feel for the game and decision-making need work. As does his shooting. I think his traits are easier to improve than Trent's.

Now, I doubt either guy returns, but I think Duval has an easier path to a higher draft pick by returning than Trent does.

And I totally agree that playing time would not be a concern for either. Either would start, and even if both returned they would both be in the top-6 and get 25+ mpg (in that scenario, I'd guess Trent would be the sixth man). But I'd be very surprised if Duval returns, and fairly surprised if Trent returns.

Loved Carter, not just for his skillset, but also for how much he cared. He wore his heart on his sleeve all year, and I appreciated that.

But yea, he's likely gone. And honestly, he should go. Get paid!

Yeah, I should make clear that - even though he'll almost certainly be the 4th or 5th big (forgot Bamba) taken - he'll still likely go in the top-10. I really don't think there is much upside to him coming back. He could definitely get into the top-5 (and the top big) by returning, but it's probably not worth the risk of serious injury and of not performing well enough in a bigger role. I'd be really really surprised if he came back. It's hard to argue with a top-10 pick if your goal is the NBA.