Who's Leaving - Duke 2018

[Wander]

This is a straw man. He was better than Tyus at some things. He was worse at Tyus at some things. Any overall comparison of the relative worth of the things each was better at is bound to be subjective. I don't recall anyone trying to force such an argument, and my recollection is that most posts which tended in that direction were in response to the copious number of "Duval is crap" like posts which were both frequent, and frankly, embarrassing to me as a member of this board.

"Player A is better than Player B at some things, Player B is better than Player A at some things" is a statement you can say about basically any two basketball players ever. I can't say Lebron James is better than JJ Redick because I can name a couple things JJ is better than Lebron at? Get that weak stuff out of here.

[mpj96]

Tre definitely wasn't in the same league as Tyus, but he was a great point guard for a freshmen. As has been stated above, great point guards don't show it early. I remember thinking Hurley was awful and ridiculous after his first game against UNC.

Looked it up online. Here is a recap from the NYT his senior year:

A lifetime ago, Rice had added the loud reminders to Hurley's first game against North Carolina at Chapel Hill, probably Hurley's worst game of his college career: 2-for-9 shooting, 1 assist, 10 turnovers and much verbal abuse.

[Acymetric]

Both mitigating elements of your valid rebuttal are absolutely applicable in these cases. Duval is young and will improve, and so the same reasons to be a bit more understanding in criticism of him hold true. Duval does not become older and unable to improve simply because that maturing and improving won't happen at Duke.

From a player perspective, and an NBA perspective, yes. From an evaluate our team perspective, the "young" explanation for inconsistent or poor play does not carry much weight if the strategy is inherently to be young. In other words, you can't say "the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores" about guys who will not become sophomores. So the expectation is (and should be) that OAD freshmen will still have issues related to youth, but should be better prepared/more advanced than a typical freshman. So the "he's a freshman" line still applies, but carries much less weight.

[szstark]

Duval assists/turnovers per game: 5.6/2.8

Tyus Jones assists/turnovers per game: 5.6/1.9

Yes - Tyus's turnovers are better. But 5.6 assists per game is nothing to laugh at. DUVAL IS A TRUE POINT GUARD.

We could go back and forth on this all day - 102 turnovers is nothing to laugh at either. As I said in a later statement, there are many shades of gray here. Danny Ferry is 8th on the all time Duke assists list with 506, but I don’t think anyone would call him a true point guard. Duval was asked to play point guard early in the season - by mid-season he was “unasked”. A true point guard is a playmaker, not just for himself, but for his teammates. Yes, I can remember some really good feeds he made off of drives into the lane, but they were the exceptions, not the rule. As the season progressed, it looked to me that defenses backed off Duval - this allowed them to pack the lane accomplishing two things: it made it more difficult for our bigs to receive the ball let alone score and it made it more difficult for our guards to drive the middle because of the congestion. Could you imagine anyone doing that against Hurley, or Jones, or Amaker, or Duhon, or Wojo? Yes, I know I’ve chosen some of our best ever point guards, but my point stands that you can’t employ that strategy against a true point guard - he will make you pay. I’ll go one step further, I think that Kansas played a 5 versus 4 defensive strategy saying “let’s stop the other four and let Duval beat us if he can”. Despite one of his better offensive performances, Duval still did not have the passing skills or shooting skills or decision making skills to make Kansas pay the ultimate price for employing that strategy. I am not blaming the loss on Duval (there were many contributing factors), but I think the presence of a true point guard would have made a difference.

[uh_no]

"Player A is better than Player B at some things, Player B is better than Player A at some things" is a statement you can say about basically any two basketball players ever. I can't say Lebron James is better than JJ Redick because I can name a couple things JJ is better than Lebron at? Get that weak stuff out of here.

Did you invest in straw men this week?

[WVDUKEFAN]

Not picking on you, CDu, and I enjoy your posts.

Here's what Gary Trent, Jr. has:

The shot -- anyone want to argue?
The body -- physically mature well beyond his years, which suggests he is gonna be a beast at age 25
The genes -- the Shaq of the MAC played ten years in the NBA

Here's what the NBA has:

The bench -- 15 players not counting the two extras
The patience -- in part because of the long bench
Coaching - how many of those tall dudes in suits are on the sidelines -- at least six, plus maybe other resources for physical training and specialized skills

As an NBA draft choice, I think Trent skews upwards beyond his current skills.

I think "the shot" is debatable. If he had "the shot" we'd be playing this weekend.

[Ian]

I think "the shot" is debatable. If he had "the shot" we'd be playing this weekend.

And I'd question the "genes" also. His father was a PF banger in the NBA, he's going to be a SG perimeter guy, completely different skill sets required for success. So his father's success is largely irrelevant to his pro prospects.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think "the shot" is debatable. If he had "the shot" we'd be playing this weekend.

Yeah. Can't have an off day, right?

Geez.

[cato]

I think "the shot" is debatable. If he had "the shot" we'd be playing this weekend.

Luke Kennard shot 1-5 from 3 in the loss to Oregon in the NCAA his freshman year. He struggled from 3 more than Trent did this year. I would not extrapolate from one or two games, or even one season shooting from the college 3 point line.

[mr. synellinden]

I think "the shot" is debatable. If he had "the shot" we'd be playing this weekend.

Because he short poorly in Omaha does not mean he does not have the shot. He shot 40% from 3pt. range this season and over 85% from the line. And during the season he shot about 97% from the line in the last 5 minutes of games. There has been analysis that FT shooting is one of the best predictors of future jump shooting improvement. He has the shot. He has the size. He is an NBA player. How much he improves his passing, his handle and his defense while being coached in the NBA will determine how successful an NBA career he has.

By the way, does anyone think he couldn't or wouldn't make the same type of improvement in his sophomore year that Kennard did? Trent had a better freshman season for sure. In my mind he's definitely an NBA player and could be a starter pretty soon.

[fraggler]

I think "the shot" is debatable. If he had "the shot" we'd be playing this weekend.

Have you seen JJ's shooting percentages in NCAA losses? Would you say he didn't have "the shot" because of those performances?

[House P]

If he is drafted around 45, he'll be playing most of next year in the D-League trying to get better, he might get a couple cups of coffee with the big club. He will probably make $500K+ though.

For what it is worth, it seems that nearly* every player drafted between 31 and 50 ends up with a 2 year guaranteed contract at the NBA minimum salary. For 2018, that will be worth a total of $2,236,077 over two years.

So even if Gary and Trevon don't get drafted until the early/mid second round, they are likely to get multi-million dollar contracts. They could still end up spending the year slogging through the G-league, but they should be pretty well compensated.

Here is a chart which shows the contract status of picks #31-50 in the 2017 NBA draft (data taken from basketball-reference.com)

Pick
Player
College
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
Comments

31
Frank Jackson
Duke
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2017-18 & 2018-19 are fully guaranteed; 2019-20 is guaranteed for $506K.

32
Davon Reed
Miami
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2018-19 is guaranteed for $689K until Saturday, June 30, 2018.

33
Wesley Iwundu
Kansas State
$1,050,000
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is team option.

34
Frank Mason
 Kansas
$1,184,385
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 unguaranteed until Tuesday, October 15, 2019

35
Ivan Rabb
California
$950,000
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is unguaranteed.

36
Jonah Bolden






37
Semi Ojeleye
SMU
$1,291,892
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2018-19 guaranteed for $900K until Sunday, July 15, 2018.

38
Jordan Bell
Oregon
$815,615
$1,378,252



39
Jawun Evans
Oklahoma St
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is team option.

40
Dwayne Bacon
Florida State
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 unguaranteed until Thursday, August 1, 2019, then fully guaranteed.

41
Tyler Dorsey
Oregon
$815,615
$1,378,242



42
Thomas Bryant
Indiana
$815,615
$1,378,242

2018-19 is unguaranteed until Thursday, July 5, 2018.

43
Isaiah Hartenstein






44
Damyean Dotson
Oregon
$1,100,000
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is unguaranteed until Monday, July 15, 2019.

45
Dillon Brooks
Oregon
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is unguaranteed.

46
Sterling Brown
SMU
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is unguaranteed.

47
Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
$950,000
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2018-19 guaranteed for $690K until Sunday, July 15, 2018.

48
Sindarius Thornwell
USC
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 unguaranteed until Thursday, June 20, 2019.

49
Vlatko Cancar






50
Mathias Lessort

*It seems that, in the past 2 drafts, the only top 50 players who didn't get at least a 2 year guaranteed contract were foreign "draft and stash" type players.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I think "the shot" is debatable. If he had "the shot" we'd be playing this weekend.

I see it a little differently. I think he and Grayson have the shot...I think they both had the nervous "tight collar" a bit this weekend. Missed a ton of open looks, in rhythm, shot way below what the law of averages would indicate against Kansas. Way below...anything even approaching normal would've meant a comfortable win over KU. A good shooting night would mean a rout.

[sagegrouse]

I think "the shot" is debatable. If he had "the shot" we'd be playing this weekend.

You didn't like the 30-footer he made to tie the game with the shot clock winding down?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

You didn't like the 30-footer he made to tie the game with the shot clock winding down?

That shot, and many others, validates a three point theory of mine - which is that the end of the shot clock is a great time to take a three. After all, you have no choice, there's no pressure that you might be taking a bad shot, or missing a pass to a teammate...you can just let it fly guilt free.

I think this is why you see a lot of late clock threes go in. (obviously this is not talking about late threes that are just heaves and not shots...which happens...my theory relates merely about getting off a normal shot late clock).

[beach rev]

Bagley declares:

https://twitter.com/AdamRoweTDD

[WHOneedsSOX]

Bagley declares:

https://twitter.com/AdamRoweTDD

Was actually surprised it took him so long to say so. Hope he gets drafted to a team that will best utilize him (as in NOT Sacramento).

Here's his Instagram post announcing the decision.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bg4fE7Lg...ource=ig_embed

[MartyClark]

Was actually surprised it took him so long to say so. Hope he gets drafted to a team that will best utilize him (as in NOT Sacramento).

Here's his Instagram post announcing the decision.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bg4fE7Lg...ource=ig_embed

Good luck to Marvin. He seems like a good kid and he had a really good year for Duke.

Having said that, I am beginning to hate this one and done stuff.

[DukeWarhead]

Shocking.

[ncexnyc]

For what it is worth, it seems that nearly* every player drafted between 31 and 50 ends up with a 2 year guaranteed contract at the NBA minimum salary. For 2018, that will be worth a total of $2,236,077 over two years.

So even if Gary and Trevon don't get drafted until the early/mid second round, they are likely to get multi-million dollar contracts. They could still end up spending the year slogging through the G-league, but they should be pretty well compensated.

Here is a chart which shows the contract status of picks #31-50 in the 2017 NBA draft (data taken from basketball-reference.com)

Pick
Player
College
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
Comments

31
Frank Jackson
Duke
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2017-18 & 2018-19 are fully guaranteed; 2019-20 is guaranteed for $506K.

32
Davon Reed
Miami
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2018-19 is guaranteed for $689K until Saturday, June 30, 2018.

33
Wesley Iwundu
Kansas State
$1,050,000
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is team option.

34
Frank Mason
 Kansas
$1,184,385
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 unguaranteed until Tuesday, October 15, 2019

35
Ivan Rabb
California
$950,000
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is unguaranteed.

36
Jonah Bolden






37
Semi Ojeleye
SMU
$1,291,892
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2018-19 guaranteed for $900K until Sunday, July 15, 2018.

38
Jordan Bell
Oregon
$815,615
$1,378,252



39
Jawun Evans
Oklahoma St
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is team option.

40
Dwayne Bacon
Florida State
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 unguaranteed until Thursday, August 1, 2019, then fully guaranteed.

41
Tyler Dorsey
Oregon
$815,615
$1,378,242



42
Thomas Bryant
Indiana
$815,615
$1,378,242

2018-19 is unguaranteed until Thursday, July 5, 2018.

43
Isaiah Hartenstein






44
Damyean Dotson
Oregon
$1,100,000
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is unguaranteed until Monday, July 15, 2019.

45
Dillon Brooks
Oregon
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is unguaranteed.

46
Sterling Brown
SMU
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 is unguaranteed.

47
Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
$950,000
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2018-19 guaranteed for $690K until Sunday, July 15, 2018.

48
Sindarius Thornwell
USC
$815,615
$1,378,242
$1,618,520
2019-20 unguaranteed until Thursday, June 20, 2019.

49
Vlatko Cancar






50
Mathias Lessort

*It seems that, in the past 2 drafts, the only top 50 players who didn't get at least a 2 year guaranteed contract were foreign "draft and stash" type players.

Thank you for putting this together for us.

I love how all season long and especially during the NCAA scandal news we had to listen to the narrative about the poor exploited players and how a free ride at a major university where they get to brand themselves via 25+ televised games wasn't fair compensation. However, some of these very same people are now claiming these very same players are getting short changed by only making $500K a year chump change.

It's called living in the real and making adult decisions, something many of these kids have never had to do as everything has been neatly laid out for them since they displayed serious basketball skills. If a kid thinks he's ready then so be it. Steve Miller said it best, "Go on take the money and run."