Three point shooting next year

[Kedsy]

This thread is really important the more I think about it.

Next year, in RJ, Cam, Zion, and Tre, we're basically going to have some of the best slashing talent in Duke basketball history. I don't want to see that wasted by clogged lanes. Just like how this season we had one of the best postup duos in Duke history with Marvin and Wendell, and yet they were at times wasted by clogged lanes. (If you ever rewatch the Kansas game, check out how they were guarding Bagley. It was comical at times how willing they were to leave certain Duke players open to contain him, both pre-catch and post-catch.)

Ideally, we'd nab a stretch big man somehow. Mike Daum as a grad transfer would be perfect. But we could also sign or internally develop a wing shooter (Alex?) that Coach K can trust so that the Zion-at-the-5 lineup can be used often. I want to be entertained next year by all these slashers playing on a spread court.

One shooter does not lead to a spread court. Alex should help, in a 10 to 15 minute role, but some combination of the four freshmen (at least two and preferably three of them) need to be shooting threats in order to force defenses to come out and guard the perimeter. As we saw this year, two outside threats doesn't always do it.

[CDu]

What happened to Javin's shot? It looks awful. Don't get me wrong Javin has value to the team but 3 point shooting is not one of them. I hope he get's better at handling the ball and catching the ball. He's a good defender when he stays out of foul trouble. I hope he works hard this offseason. GoDuke!

I would say it is a combo of the shorter 3pt line, the lower quality of competition, and less pressure. That, and he took a really low number of attempts - both in high school and in college. His free throw percentage this year is about what it was in high school, so I don't think he's gotten worse as a shooter. I just don't think he's getting to take the same shots he got in high school (both in distance and in degree of coverage).

It's really hard to describe how much worse high school basketball is compared to college basketball. I'd say that the difference is sort of like the difference in quality between college and the NBA, but I know lots of folks here don't like the NBA so it wouldn't resonate as well. I recommend everyone watches a few high school games to see just how bad it is compared to D-1 college ball. Smaller, less athletic players. Less defensive structure and awareness. Almost a completely different sport.

[kAzE]

This thread is really important the more I think about it.

Next year, in RJ, Cam, Zion, and Tre, we're basically going to have some of the best slashing talent in Duke basketball history. I don't want to see that wasted by clogged lanes. Just like how this season we had one of the best postup duos in Duke history with Marvin and Wendell, and yet they were at times wasted by clogged lanes. (If you ever rewatch the Kansas game, check out how they were guarding Bagley. It was comical at times how willing they were to leave certain Duke players open to contain him, both pre-catch and post-catch.)

Ideally, we'd nab a stretch big man somehow. Mike Daum as a grad transfer would be perfect. But we could also sign or internally develop a wing shooter (Alex?) that Coach K can trust so that the Zion-at-the-5 lineup can be used often. I want to be entertained next year by all these slashers playing on a spread court.

Great post. Really reinforces how Gary Trent's NBA draft decision has huge ramifications for next year's team. We're a totally different (and MUCH better) team if he stays.

The one caveat though is that Zion doesn't necessarily need to catch it in the post to be effective. He's quite good off the dribble if he's matched up against a slower big man on the perimeter. I'm hoping that leads to slightly less congested lanes in the middle. This team could conceivably play with 5 guys outside the paint on offense.

The other thing is, because we have such incredible slashing playmakers, we are going to get some very wide open looks at 3 pointers. It's just up to the players to knock some of those down.

[CDu]

One shooter does not lead to a spread court. Alex should help, in a 10 to 15 minute role, but some combination of the four freshmen (at least two and preferably three of them) need to be shooting threats in order to force defenses to come out and guard the perimeter. As we saw this year, two outside threats doesn't always do it.

Yeah, I think 2 shooters can be enough to space the floor, but it requires that those 2 guys be off ball.

Basically, I think this team's offense was hampered by Duval's lack of progress. The ball really needed to be in his hands on offense. Otherwise, things were always going to get stagnant. With him off-ball, teams could largely play off him and double-team the post. Same was true with DeLaurier. When DeLaurier AND Duval were in the game (especially whenever DeLaurier was at the 3), it was a nightmare, because then you'd have 4 guys cheating into the paint and one guy guarding Allen.

Duval was really valuable to this team defensively (see the UNC loss in the ACC tournament for an example of how critical he was), and even at times down the stretch he was a difference maker offensively. But we really were hamstrung unless he had the ball in his hands, because defenses just didn't feel the need to defend him when he was off ball. And that made life miserable for Bagley inside.

As for next year, I don't know that we need 3-4 guys hitting 40% from 3. But we need at least 2-3 guys who can hit 35+% from 3 in order to keep the defense somewhat honest. If we don't get that, it's going to require a lot of heavy lifting to get our buckets consistently.

I think it also helps that we will have more guys who handle the ball well. This year, we really only had two guys who you could trust to dribble in the halfcourt (Allen and Duval). Next year, we should have at least 3, and possibly 4 if O'Connell gets stronger. Dribbling is one of the most important skills to have, because if you can dribble in traffic you can have a chance to play through a packed-in defense.

I think we'll be a good offense either way, mind you. We pretty much always are good offensively. Even this year, we're talking about a top-3 offensive team for the season as if it was a huge problem. At some point, the talent just overcomes it. But, like this year, we might be susceptible here and there to teams just totally packing it in.

[Troublemaker]

One shooter does not lead to a spread court. Alex should help, in a 10 to 15 minute role, but some combination of the four freshmen (at least two and preferably three of them) need to be shooting threats in order to force defenses to come out and guard the perimeter. As we saw this year, two outside threats doesn't always do it.

Yeah, no kidding. I wasn't implying otherwise.

Based on what I've read and seen, I feel comfortable that Cam and RJ will shoot well, particularly Cam. So what I'm asking for is a third shooter to emerge, not a first shooter. Ideally, though, the staff can work with Tre (who's an 80% FT shooter) to become reliable from three, AND a fourth shooter emerges.

[kAzE]

I think it also helps that we will have more guys who handle the ball well. This year, we really only had two guys who you could trust to dribble in the halfcourt (Allen and Duval). Next year, we should have at least 3, and possibly 4 if O'Connell gets stronger. Dribbling is one of the most important skills to have, because if you can dribble in traffic you can have a chance to play through a packed-in defense.

I honestly think there's a decent chance that Zion can be used as a ball handler in the right match ups (sort of like how we used Jabari). I think I'd be comfortable with him taking opposing big men off the dribble from the 3 point line and finding the open man with his great passing skills, or just dunking on whoever is unfortunate enough to have to come help. He's actually quite good at avoiding offensive fouls, too.

[proelitedota]

This thread is really important the more I think about it.

Next year, in RJ, Cam, Zion, and Tre, we're basically going to have some of the best slashing talent in Duke basketball history. I don't want to see that wasted by clogged lanes. Just like how this season we had one of the best postup duos in Duke history with Marvin and Wendell, and yet they were at times wasted by clogged lanes. (If you ever rewatch the Kansas game, check out how they were guarding Bagley. It was comical at times how willing they were to leave certain Duke players open to contain him, both pre-catch and post-catch.)

Ideally, we'd nab a stretch big man somehow. Mike Daum as a grad transfer would be perfect. But we could also sign or internally develop a wing shooter (Alex?) that Coach K can trust so that the Zion-at-the-5 lineup can be used often. I want to be entertained next year by all these slashers playing on a spread court.

We're the favorite for landing EJ Montgomery. Who honestly is a better suit at the 4 spot than Zion. Can we trade Zion for a junior / senior combo guard ala Phil Booth / Jalen Bruson?

[phaedrus]

It's really hard to describe how much worse high school basketball is compared to college basketball. I'd say that the difference is sort of like the difference in quality between college and the NBA, but I know lots of folks here don't like the NBA so it wouldn't resonate as well. I recommend everyone watches a few high school games to see just how bad it is compared to D-1 college ball. Smaller, less athletic players. Less defensive structure and awareness. Almost a completely different sport.

Think of the team we beat in our worst beat-down of the year: St. Francis PA, ranked somewhere in the 200s by KenPom, who we beat 124-67. (Javin had 9 points and 6 boards.)

Now think of the team that they beat in their worst beat-down of the year: Franciscan College, a bad DIII team out of the Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference, who they beat 96-54.

Now think of the Franciscan players 3-4 years ago, in high school. That's the average high school team.

[CDu]

I honestly think there's a decent chance that Zion can be used as a ball handler in the right match ups (sort of like how we used Jabari). I think I'd be comfortable with him taking opposing big men off the dribble from the 3 point line and finding the open man with his great passing skills, or just dunking on whoever is unfortunate enough to have to come help. He's actually quite good at avoiding offensive fouls, too.

Oh I agree. If he is at the 4 against a big 4, or at the 5, he can absolutely attack off the dribble. He does a good job of staying compact with his dribble, unlike a guy like Bagley who shows a lot of the ball. That dribbling skill combined with his raw strength suggest he will do well attacking bigs off the dribble.

He is surprisingly nimble for a big man. Kind of a physical cross between Barkley and LeBron. He doesn’t shoot well and I don’t think he is much of a passer, but he is quite capable off the dribble as long as he isn’t on a small quick guy.

Of course, if he gets matched up on a small quick guy, he can then play bullyball instead.

[kAzE]

Oh I agree. If he is at the 4 against a big 4, or at the 5, he can absolutely attack off the dribble. He does a good job of staying compact with his dribble, unlike a guy like Bagley who shows a lot of the ball. That dribbling skill combined with his raw strength suggest he will do well attacking bigs off the dribble.

He is surprisingly nimble for a big man. Kind of a physical cross between Barkley and LeBron. He doesn’t shoot well and I don’t think he is much of a passer, but he is quite capable off the dribble as long as he isn’t on a small quick guy.

Of course, if he gets matched up on a small quick guy, he can then play bullyball instead.

I haven't seen him play all that much (outside of youtube videos), but people in the know seem to be impressed by his passing. I've seen multiple scouts say he is excellent at making plays for others.

Here's one such excerpt from a scouting report:

(Zion)’s also a willing and skilled passer. Williamson described himself as a “point forward” and noted his ball-handling ability as his most underrated attribute. It showed throughout the camp. He can push the ball off a rebound and doesn’t hesitate to swing the ball on the perimeter. He also made some crafty high-low passes when playing with a more traditional big man from the top of the key.

And another one from a different article:

Williamson's passing could end up being excellent: He dished a variety of nice looks to his teammates both in transition and half-court sets. One of the better passes was a one-handed bullet off the dribble to a cutting guard in transition, threading the needle between defenders for a layup.

This is from Sports Illustrated:

He’s a truly astounding athlete—no player with his heft should be able to elevate like that, and no teenager should be that powerful attacking the basket and manipulating the air beneath him. He is a terrific passer and gets little credit for being unselfish, spending lots of time with the ball in his hands but rarely taking a poor shot.

I think we have 4 legitimate play makers next year. I think we will have a chance to be a VERY good passing team. The question is whether or not we have the shooting to space the floor adequately.

[Devilwin]

I have been watching video of all four of next years stars all day, and I love what I see. Barrett and Reddish are both silky smooth shooters, with range to three. Williamson can also make the three, but the way he can sky and with his power he does not need to shoot threes. Jones is not as bad as some said he was from three, but has excellent mid range touch, excellent at slashing to the basket, and is one hell of a good defender. Feel good at our chances..That being said, I know all these mix tapes are highlights against other kids their age, but still, the skill sets are there.

[OZ]

From ESPN: "He's not a great three-point shooter and only an above average athlete so it remains to be seen just how far his game translates. He's rarely going to blow right by a set defender or play above the rim in traffic. His inconsistencies as a spot-up shooter are only going to become more glaring at the next level when he won't have the ball in his hands quite as much."

From DraftExpress: "Jump-shot is a major work in progress. Release is not particularly smooth or fluid. Tends to fling the ball at the basket"

He is a career 32% 3pt shooter. This year? 26.9% from 3 on by far his most attempts (29 of 108) (courtesy of MNBasketballhub stats).

And he is rank 8th in country? Those below 10 must just be learning to dribble

[Devilwin]

I didn't see those flaws.

[CDu]

And he is rank 8th in country? Those below 10 must just be learning to dribble

I think it's just that shooting ability is a pretty low trait on prospect ratings. Especially for PGs, where being able to run the offense, control the tempo to the best for the team, and make good decisions with the basketball is so much more important. Jones is good at all the little stuff a PG does. He's just not a knock-down 3pt shooter (or at least he hasn't been to this point).