NCAA 2018 Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight

[mr. synellinden]

If you look back through the years using this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...r_participants

...I think you'll see that it's not that rare for 3-seeds or lower to be in the title game.

It's been the case 50% of the time since 2000 by my count.

Sure. But how many of those times was it guaranteed by the start of the sweet 16? Possibly never.

[Turk]

Trying to decide who to roll with in survivor. Waffling between Loyola and Gonzaga

Gonzaga is boring without that big Polish sasquatch they had last year. Gotta roll with Gryffindor and Sister Jean!! How is this a hard choice?

[gocanes0506]

We are 3-3 over the last 10 years in the sweet sixteen game. Nova, Oregon, and Arizona are the 3 losses. Victories over Michigan State, Utah, and Purdue.

in the the E8 game after those 3 victories we are 2-1. One loss was to Louisville. Both victories led to Championships.


As far as I can tell we have only played one ACC foe in the tournament before Friday. It was a Final Four win over Maryland in 2001. We've played now ACC teams a bunch but not when they were conference foes.
Duke is 2-0 over Cuse in the tournament. 66' and 98'

[COYS]

Looking at kenpom numbers, Duke faced #'s 2,7,8, and 15. Admittedly, these are post tournament. But if anything, that seems like a relatively tough road.

Yeah, the "easy" path to the title is a quick way for fans of other teams to try to diminish winning the NCAAT, which is difficult no matter who you are. I think people point to 2015 because Duke faced a team that generally hasn't gotten a lot of national media attention (Utah) and a team that, rightly or wrongly, had a reputation for flaming out in the tournament and is not from a major conference (Gonzaga). In reality, those two teams were excellent. Duke did catch a break by being on the opposite side of the bracket from Wiscy/Kentucky and therefore getting to play a Spartan team that was clearly not as good. But, hey, sometimes it happens like that.

People said the same thing about Duke's 2010 title run, which I think was even harder. Duke did get a little lucky by facing a Purdue team in the Sweet 16 that had lost its best player (Robbie Hummell) to knee injury. But other than that, Duke had a really tough road. I remember being nervous about facing California in the second round . . . a team that was 14th in KenPom, had a scary-good offense. That was a Sweet 16-level test that Duke passed with flying colors in the second round. Duke even had to play two de facto away games in that run, including beating Baylor in Houston and then beating Butler in Butler's hometown. While all the media attention was focused on a potential Duke-UK battle in the semi-final, people forgot that West Virginia had been just as good as Kentucky throughout most of the season even if the Mountaineers didn't have the same name recognition. Some might recall that there were many who thought WVU should've been given the #1 seed that went to Duke. The fact that Duke beat the crap out of California and WVU didn't mean that Duke's path was easy. It just meant that Duke was really good.

That said, Duke's path to the Elite Eight this year really is about as "easy" as we could have hoped. We had a reasonable 2/15 game. We faced one of the worst 7-seeds in the second round. And we will face the worst team remaining in the tournament in the Sweet 16. Nothing is given, of course. Duke really needs to take care of business. But I wouldn't sweat it when people who claim that Duke's path has been "easy," so far. It is, quite frankly, exactly as we fans would have designed it if we had been given a chance. Still gotta win the games on the court, though!

[Truth&Justise]

Yeah, the "easy" path to the title is a quick way for fans of other teams to try to diminish winning the NCAAT, which is difficult no matter who you are.

Yeah, it can make sense to complain about an "easy" path to a particular round, but it never makes sense to say that about the champion.

In any given year, maybe there's a team whose opening pod was full of over-seeded late-season collapsers, or maybe carnage in another part of the region made for an "easy" route to the final four. But once a team wins a championship? All that talk should go out the door. Everybody lost to somebody who lost to somebody who eventually lost to the champion. That's the beauty of the bracket. You think their route was easy? Well then, you should have beaten one of those "easy" teams.

[UrinalCake]

I think the year that people complain about Duke’s path was 2010 because we didn’t have to face Kentucky and then played Butler in the final. Nobody remembers that that game was played ten minutes from Butler’s campus, or that they lost their best player and then went back to the Finals the following year, or that we also had to face Baylor in Houston in an earlier round.

I’ve already heard CHeat fans complaining that we get to play Syracuse in our next game. They forget that two years ago they played a double digit Syracuse team in the Final Four!

[uh_no]

I think the year that people complain about Duke’s path was 2010 because we didn’t have to face Kentucky and then played Butler in the final. Nobody remembers that that game was played ten minutes from Butler’s campus, or that they lost their best player and then went back to the Finals the following year, or that we also had to face Baylor in Houston in an earlier round.

I’ve already heard CHeat fans complaining that we get to play Syracuse in our next game. They forget that two years ago they played a double digit Syracuse team in the Final Four!

They just lost to a tx AM team which didn't even get votes in the last AP poll. As I said. wrestling with pigs.

[clutch299]

Has there ever been a region where the 1, 2, 3, and 4 seed all miss the Sweet 16?

No, there has not. According to CBS yesterday.

[Listen to Quants]

Nah. Too many good teams left on that side of the bracket who, in a single-elimination tournament, can certainly win one game for the championship.

Yes indeed. If we take the KenPom numbers, there is only a one-quarter chance of even seeing the 'de-facto championship' game (Duke v Villanova). Many a slip 'twixt cup and lip.

[arnie]

courtesy of Bovada:

2018 NCAA Championship - Odds to Win
Duke 13/4
Villanova 9/2
Gonzaga 7/1
Kentucky 7/1
Michigan 8/1
Kansas 17/2
Purdue 16/1
West Virginia 16/1
Texas Tech 22/1
Clemson 25/1
Nevada 25/1
Texas A&M 25/1
Kansas State 28/1
Florida State 40/1
Loyola Chicago 50/1
Syracuse 66/1

Regional Odds
Odds to win the Midwest Region
Duke 2/3
Kansas 2/1
Clemson 8/1
Syracuse 18/1

Odds to win the West Region
Gonzaga 7/5
Michigan 7/4
Texas A&M 4/1
Florida State 8/1

Odds to win the South Region
Kentucky 5/6
Nevada 7/2
Kansas State 9/2
Loyola Chicago 11/2

Odds to Win the East Region
Villanova 1/1
West Virginia 15/4
Purdue 4/1
Texas Tech 9/2

You left out the Holes’ odds😸

[elvis14]

Just wanted to give you all a heads up. Anyone that's planning on going to any of the sweet sixteen games keep in mind that they have instituted a dress code this year centered around footwear. Sneakers, flats, boots, dress shoes, sandals, all OK but...no Heels.

Thank you, thank you! I'll be here all week. Please remember to tip your wait staff.

[AGDukesky]

You left out the Holes’ odds😸

Zero point zero

[devildeac]

Just wanted to give you all a heads up. Anyone that's planning on going to any of the sweet sixteen games keep in mind that they have instituted a dress code this year centered around footwear. Sneakers, flats, boots, dress shoes, sandals, all OK but...no Heels.

Thank you, thank you! I'll be here all week. Please remember to tip your wait staff.

They're a bit late with this. Shoulda been in effect for the last 2-3 years.

[Truth&Justise]

I think the year that people complain about Duke’s path was 2010 because we didn’t have to face Kentucky and then played Butler in the final. Nobody remembers that that game was played ten minutes from Butler’s campus, or that they lost their best player and then went back to the Finals the following year, or that we also had to face Baylor in Houston in an earlier round.

I’ve already heard CHeat fans complaining that we get to play Syracuse in our next game. They forget that two years ago they played a double digit Syracuse team in the Final Four!

Yeah, this argument hinges on people underrating Butler...STILL! Years after the fact, after Hayward made an NBA all-star team, after they got back to the finals WITHOUT HAYWARD, after Brad Stevens has had NBA success...people still see the word "Butler" and discount them. They were a GREAT team.

[mr. synellinden]

Zero point zero

Mr. Blutarsky ...

[duke79]

Zero point zero

LOL, to be more exact, I think their odds are: zero point zero zero

[Fish80]

LOL, to be more exact, I think their odds are: zero point zero zero

Not necessarily... Heels may refuse to admit they lost, show up to round of 16 and play anyway. Heel lawyers win case against NCAA, Heels go to final four. Yikes, that's a bad scenario.

[Reddevil]

Zero point zero

Tarheels kwenda nyumbani means tarheels going home in Swahili. Of course you knew that right heels? No? Why not?

[sagegrouse]

Sure. But how many of those times was it guaranteed by the start of the sweet 16? Possibly never.

Probably never. When #11 VCU made the Final Four in 2011, #10 Florida State and #12 Richmond were in the same regional./ But the regional also included #1 Kansas.

[JasonEvans]

Yeah, this argument hinges on people underrating Butler...STILL! Years after the fact, after Hayward made an NBA all-star team, after they got back to the finals WITHOUT HAYWARD, after Brad Stevens has had NBA success...people still see the word "Butler" and discount them. They were a GREAT team.

One of the best rules of picking a winner in basketball is "pick the team with the best individual player." Well, in that game there is no question at all that the best player in the game was Gordon Hayward. No one else in that game has had anywhere close to his NBA career (Mason is second but you can make a solid argument that Shelvin Mack is third... he's at least alongside Lance and Singler as the third best pro from that game).