Duke vs. Iona NCAAT (3/15 2:45 pm CBS) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread:

[bigperm13]

I think we'll struggle for some times in this game as they'll be practicing breaking our zone the whole week.

I wish them good luck finding a way to simulate Duke's length and quickness, especially from Duval.

[Reilly]

Iona's records at sports-reference.com are not complete, but it looks like Iona (and Valvano) were 3-2 against Army (and K) during the 1976-1980 five-year span.

[FerryFor50]

Iona's records at sports-reference.com are not complete, but it looks like Iona (and Valvano) were 3-2 against Army (and K) during the 1976-1980 five-year span.

It's over.

[uh_no]

I think we'll struggle for some times in this game as they'll be practicing breaking our zone the whole week.

shrug. teams have seen elements of our zone for 2 months now. They've all been "practicing" it without much success. the only real success has been UNC the other night...and even their offense was severely depressed vs expectation...but I'm sure world beaters like the gaels are going to be the ones to decipher it.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I think we'll struggle for some times in this game as they'll be practicing breaking our zone the whole week.

Don't we struggle for some times in EVERY game? Seriously, until I see something different, I expect nothing but a roller coaster ride from this Duke team. I don't expect Iona or any other team to be easy. If Trent and Allen aren't shooting particularly well and they clog the lane on our bigs, we struggle. Iona gets hot from 3 for a period, we have a game on our hands. Duke can't seem to play well for more than 2-4 minute stretches, then we get turnovers and bad shots for a stretch. We have to hope our great 2-4 minute stretches are extraordinary enough to outweigh the inevitable bad play. As has been the case all season- Duke can lose to anyone, or beat anyone on any given night. That's just our reality this year.

[budwom]

For this game (and perhaps this game only) we should have the size advantage with Bagley and Carter to get a lot of garbage buckets, even if we shoot poorly. Beyond that
game, we'd better cut down on turnovers, especially the self inflicted ones.

[rsvman]

I wish them good luck finding a way to simulate Duke's length and quickness, especially from Duval.

I hope that Duval can simulate Duval's quickness, after what happened to him in the first half of our last game!

[Bluedevil114]

Why not Oklahoma? They aren't very good-the only reason there are in the tournament is marketing--the committee couldn't bear to leave Trae Young at home.

Agreed but that is why I would have thought LSU would have gotten in the tournament to see Ben Simmons play last season.

[Kedsy]

Agreed but that is why I would have thought LSU would have gotten in the tournament to see Ben Simmons play last season.

Ben Simmons was two seasons ago. Last season was Washington and Markelle Fultz.

[OldPhiKap]

I hope that Duval can simulate Duval's quickness, after what happened to him in the first half of our last game!

This. I hope Trevon is good to go 100%.

[Neals384]

If there's any game where Duke should be able to limit their turnovers, it'd be against an Iona team that's 254th in turnover %.

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Iona

That said, Duke did turn it over 19 times against South Dakota, who's 78th in turnover %.

seems to me most of Duke's turns lately have been self-inflicted. I will definitely worry about valuing the rock in this game.

[COYS]

Don't we struggle for some times in EVERY game? Seriously, until I see something different, I expect nothing but a roller coaster ride from this Duke team. I don't expect Iona or any other team to be easy. If Trent and Allen aren't shooting particularly well and they clog the lane on our bigs, we struggle. Iona gets hot from 3 for a period, we have a game on our hands. Duke can't seem to play well for more than 2-4 minute stretches, then we get turnovers and bad shots for a stretch. We have to hope our great 2-4 minute stretches are extraordinary enough to outweigh the inevitable bad play. As has been the case all season- Duke can lose to anyone, or beat anyone on any given night. That's just our reality this year.

I know it seems like we've been very inconsistent, but the numbers indicate that Duke has actually been remarkably consistent over the past 10 games or so. Our defense has stayed between elite and very, very good. Our offense has been somewhere between very good and fine. Even in the ACC semifinal against UNCheat, our defense was very good, though shy of elite. UNC broke apart our zone about as well as anyone has, and all it did was produce a decent offensive showing. It just felt worse watching as a fan because our offense didn't show up.

To put our recent performances into perspective, we've actually been more consistent this year heading into the tournament than we were in 2015. T-Rank has a stat called game score that indicates how good our performance was in a particular game relative to expectations. 100 is a "perfect" game and indicative of a team that would be projected by his system to win every game against an average opponent. A game score of 20 would be a terrible performance and indicative of a team that would only be projected to win 20% of its games against an average opponent. If we go back over the past 10 games (which includes the first UNC game all the way to the present) Duke's two worst game scores were the 88 we posted in a loss to VaTech and the 88 we posted in the ACCT to UNC. For comparison's sake, in 2015, we played THREE games with game scores lower than 88, including somehow winning at VaTech despite a 73 game score, somehow beating FSU with an 84 game score, and then of course losing to ND in the ACCT with a 73 game score. In addition, in 2015 during our losses to Miami and NC State, that team had lower game scores than in any of our losses this season.

So, while it seems that this year's squad has been particularly inconsistent, we've actually played pretty consistently, especially after our switch to the zone full time. And while this team's record in close games has been poor, some of that is bad luck when it comes to opponent's free throw shooting. The 2015 had the benefit of an excellent "free throw defense," which is more or less a measure of luck. Opponents only shot 69% from the charity stripe against us in 2015. This season, they're shooting 74%. That number skyrockets to 78% in conference play.

Obviously, computers don't play the games on the court. And efficiency stats are meaningless now that the tournament is here and all that matters is a win or a loss. However, this Duke team has played consistently excellent defense over the stretch-run. The zone has manged to hold UNC's excellent offense mostly in check twice now over the past two weeks. A small improvement in our offense means that we win the close games that we've been losing. Hopefully we can make that small improvement and then make a deep run in the tourney.

[CDu]

The Gaels are a pretty nice matchup for our first round game. They aren't a completely senior-dominated squad like many of the 14/15/16 matchups are. They finished 4th in the MAAC (11-7 record), with their best win on the season being a home win over Rider (KenPom #139). That being said, they did give Syracuse, St. John's, and Rhode Island decent games, staying within 10 points on the road in all 3 of those games. So they aren't a terrible team. But they aren't the type of 15 seed that should scare anyone an inordinate amount.

The Gaels like to play fast (#56 in D1 in adjusted tempo) and shoot 3s (40.8% of their shots are 3s, and they make 38.8% of them). They don't rebound at all, though: 301st in offensive rebounding and 254th in defensive rebounding. So we should dominate the glass. They do a good job of avoiding turnovers (top-40 nationally), and don't foul a ton. But they don't really play any defense, especially inside. They are outside the top-200 in overall defensive efficiency, and 238th in defending 2pt shots. All of this is as you might expect from an undersized team, and, well, they are an undersized team.

Center: TK Edogi (6'8", 220lb grad transfer from Tulsa) is the center. Edogi wasn't quite good enough for the AAC, so he decided to add an M in the front and found a good home in the MAAC. Edogi is a solid rebounder and decent shotblocker at the low-major level, but will be giving up a LOT of size in this one. Foul trouble is also likely to be an issue for him. The Gaels have a couple of other bigs who rarely play but might get forced into action. Gavin Kensemil (6'7", 230lb freshman from Suriname) and Tyrell Williams (6'9", 250lb senior JuCo transfer) both may be forced to see the floor in this one. The two have combined for less than 300 career D1 minutes over 3 combined seasons. Williams is a good rebounder and shotblocker but also a foul machine (47 fouls in 188 career minutes). Kensemil is even more foul prone and raw (29 fouls in 103 minutes).

Forwards: EJ Crawford (6'6", 210lb sophomore) is a bit of a doughy wing forward, and not the most athletic guy around, but he can score from all over the court. His offensive game has some similarities to that of Gary Trent, although he is obviously not nearly as good (nor is he in nearly as good a shape as Trent): able to score from the midrange or from 3, more of an old-man's game in terms of finding ways to score off the dribble. Crawford will also see some time at PF given his size relative to his teammates. Behind (and often beside) Crawford is Roland Griffin (6'7", 215lb junior JuCo transfer also from Illinois State) is the starting forward for the Gaels. Griffin is more of a SF asked to play PF than a true PF. He's an very high-energy, hard-working player on the court. Griffin is a rugged forward, but capable of playing as a stretch 4. He hasn't shot the 3 much this year, but he is a career 35% 3pt shooter. His role on this team though is more garbage man-ish, more of a Josh Hairston type of role.
Backup forward Jan Svandrlik (6'7", 210lb senior JuCo transfer from Czech Republic) is the only other forward who plays regularly. Svandrlik is very much your classic Euro shooter: 44% 3pt shooter and 85.7% FT shooter for his career. He doesn't do much else though: 80% of his shots are from 3pt range, and he doesn't pass or rebound much.

Wings: The perimeter guys are where Iona makes its living. They are not at all afraid to play four guards/wings at a time. The starter is Zach Lewis (6'3", 185lb grad transfer from UMass and Canisius). Lewis is the worst shooter of the perimeter guys for the Gaels, at about 33%. He's a versatile guard, though, who does a little of everything for them. And despite not being a good shooter on average, Lewis is in the midst of a very strong stretch for the Gaels, averaging 14.5 ppg and shooting 39% from 3, and was terrific in the MAAC tourney (18.3 ppg, 41% from 3). So he certainly can't be ignored out there. Lewis also leads the team in steals per minute. The other key wing is Deyshonee Much (6'5", 180lb fifth-year senior). Much is a dynamite shooter and good athlete who gets a decent amount of steals as the team's sixth man. Much and Lewis provide what little length the Gaels have on the perimeter, and are extremely versatile players that play multiple positions for the Gaels.

Guards: The guys that make the team go are their guards. Rickey McGill (6'1", 175lb junior) is the star of the team. McGill is a terrific athlete and is fearless with the ball. He does a bit of everything, leading them in scoring and assists and steals, while being #3 in rebounds. He has steadily improved his 3pt shooting, and is up to 38.5% this year. But he's streaky from 3. Where McGill is best is attacking the basket. He's a handful, but I think the zone defense is good for helping contain him. Historically, he's the type of guy that would give us fits in man-to-man. The other guard is Schadrac Casimir (5'10", 165lb redshirt junior). Casimir is lightning quick, but tiny. He has had an interesting career arc: he was a 14.5 ppg scorer as a freshman for a very good Iona team led by AJ English. Then, he got hurt as a soph. Last year, he was a reserve. Now, he's back to starting, but as more of a tertiary option. Casimir is a very dangerous shooter (46% from 3). But I think Duke's length in the zone will cause him problems. CJ Seaforth (6'1", 155lb frosh) is the only other guard who sees any time. Seaforth can really shoot (44% from 3) but does little else productively. He's unlikely to play in this one unless things go badly for their guards.

At their biggest, Iona is very overmatched in size. And Iona rarely plays at their biggest. They'll often have a 6'5" guy at "PF" and a 6'3" guy at "SF", with two guys 6'1" or shorter at guard. So they'll be giving up 2-3 inches on the perimeter much of the time, and 3-5 inches in the frontcourt. If we played man-to-man, I think the Gaels would give us trouble by spreading us out. But in the zone, I don't have quite as much concern. Not that they couldn't shock us. But it would be a shock. This is a game we should win.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Why not Oklahoma? They aren't very good-the only reason there are in the tournament is marketing--the committee couldn't bear to leave Trae Young at home.

I'll take a stab at it....one reason I wouldn't want to face them necessarily...although I don't disagree with your two points above:

The entire OK team will hear all week how they're only in due to Trae, how they don't deserve it, how they shouldn't be there, etc. When athletes hear this, for a week, they tend to internalize it and play at their highest level possible. There are many examples of this, in college FB and BB. The "dis" card is a powerful powerful thing.

Off top of my head, there was no way Vince Young and Texas was going to beat USC for the national title.
There was no way Louisville was going to beat Florida in a bowl game. Or Boise beating Oklahoma?
Or NC State beating Houston? Villanova beating Georgetown?
Or UConn's entire run to their last two national championships?

All these guys are elite athletes, with a very thin margin between them. This kind of motivation has been shown to overcome that margin in many many cases, and it is definitely fueled by the public comments and predictions.

[gam7]

Iona's records at sports-reference.com are not complete, but it looks like Iona (and Valvano) were 3-2 against Army (and K) during the 1976-1980 five-year span.

Whoa, they own-a'd him...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'll take a stab at it...one reason I wouldn't want to face them necessarily...although I don't disagree with your two points above:

The entire OK team will hear all week how they're only in due to Trae, how they don't deserve it, how they shouldn't be there, etc. When athletes hear this, for a week, they tend to internalize it and play at their highest level possible. There are many examples of this, in college FB and BB. The "dis" card is a powerful powerful thing.

Off top of my head, there was no way Vince Young and Texas was going to beat USC for the national title.
There was no way Louisville was going to beat Florida in a bowl game. Or Boise beating Oklahoma?
Or NC State beating Houston? Villanova beating Georgetown?
Or UConn's entire run to their last two national championships?

All these guys are elite athletes, with a very thin margin between them. This kind of motivation has been shown to overcome that margin in many many cases, and it is definitely fueled by the public comments and predictions.

And this doesn't even touch Duke's painful history inside and outside of the tournament, dealing with speedy talented guards scoring in bunches.

[uh_no]

Our offense has been somewhere between very good and fine.

ehhhh...

syracuse: adj 104 = below national average
VT: adj 102 = even worse
UNC R2 H1: adj 78 = pitiful
UNC R3: 104

Those are neither very good nor fine numbers...They are between below-average and bad.

[COYS]

ehhhh...

syracuse: adj 104 = below national average
VT: adj 102 = even worse
UNC R2 H1: adj 78 = pitiful
UNC R3: 104

Those are neither very good nor fine numbers...They are between below-average and bad.

You're right. perhaps "Meh" would have been a better adjective.

[UrinalCake]

You can pretty much throw out the numbers and the scouting reports. The team that Iona has been all season is not the same team we will face. It’s like if I had to make a presentation to my CEO at work, and somebody watched film of me coming into work every day all year as an indication of how good my presentation would be. Kind of a bad example but my point being they will put more preparation and more effort into this game than at any point all season.

With that said, I think the only way they beat us is by getting hot from three, which they seem capable of doing. I imagine we’ll extend our zone right up to the 3 point line and have our wing defenders cheat up, leaving a single big in the post. Will be important to have everyone committed to rebounding after the shot goes up.

[gocanes0506]

My hope is:

We dont have to play Duval at all. Let the man rest his ankle.
3/4 court the mess out of them.
We go really deep in this game. Playing Goldwire even to stop their guards early.
Use the big 4 to wear out their bigs and get them into foul trouble early. Let MBIII, Carter, and Bolden do work in the post. Hopefully have Delaurier do high screen and rolls for Alley oops and backdoor layups.
The freshmen realize its crunch time and its time to push their game into another level.
limit the turnovers
Grayson pulls it together because this team seems to play to its competition (yes that is a knock on the Holes)
This game starts a good run for the team